Zillow is now forecasting that existing Home sales will fall to a 29e low in 20024 on top that I have an update for You guys regarding mortgage rates as Well because this will likely impact um Close home sales and potentially home Prices this year as well um also share Zillow's forecast through March of 20125 for many US metros real estate is Local right some met they're forecasting For home value to decrease but in Contrast for other areas they're calling For gains in home values over the next 12 months so I have a lot to share in Today's video please subscribe if you Haven't done so already I post frequent Housing market updates so you guys can Make a more informed decision about Whether to buy or sell house right now With that said let's begin today's video And I appreciate you this is posted on Uh April 15th which is today it says Zillow's home value forecast calls for a 1.9% increase in home values in 20124 this is slower than the long-term Average so normally over the long term Over the past several decades home Values tend to increase in the range of 3 to 5% and not 1.9% so home value is still increasing According to Zillow here but still well Below uh historical averages also According to Zillow this is welcome news
For first-time home buyers because of Course we saw home prices absolutely Skyrocket um right at the onset of covid And now they're forecasting for only a 1.9% increase in home values this by the Way is an upper Revision in their Forecast from one month ago which at That time they call for home values to Increase by 9% now their new forecast is uh quite a Bit higher than that as well they also Say here with interest rates still Elevated the modus upward vision is Mostly the result of a Slowdown in the Growth of newly listed houses so again I Have an update for you guys regarding Rates because rates increase big time on Monday which is today but on top of that What they're mentioning right here is That new listings are not ABS Skyrocketing which of course would put Big downward pressure on home prices in The long term so we're not seeing that In fact they're seeing that the um Annual or year VI increase in the number Of newly listed houses is actually Decreasing um as of late so I'll share That with you guys here in a little bit Let's have a look at rates as of Monday Though increases 7.44% as a 14 basis point increase Compared to Friday and right now at 7.44% that's a femon high the highest Rates we've had going back to Mid
November mber 2023 jumbo 7.6% FHA and VA loans is just under 6.9% additionally one year ago we're Looking at an average 30-year fix for People with great credit again at 6.5% this is an increase of 94 basis Points or .94 percentage points compared To one year ago um also something I Found to be um interesting is as well I Didn't know that uh they actually Provided um rates going back to the 1980s normally when I click on this Right here Max it only went back to I Think it was uh the early 2000s any case I noticed this today and I want to share This with you guys because the run up in Rates that we've seen ever since um the Beginning of 2021 is quite remarkable to say so Looking at um average rates um back in Late 1981 the average 30-year fix 18.2 n% that's basically a credit card Uh interest rate absolutely crazy but of Course when accounting for the fact that Home values have increased so much um Right now uh the uh rates we're we're Seeing right now still makes it less Affordable today even though rates have Decreased so much uh since the 1980s any Case um besides the runup in rates we Saw in the early 1980s um we haven't seen this run up in
Rates um that we've seen in 2021 through this year so for example Back in August of 2021 the average 30-year fix was at 2.9% then by the time we hit uh November Of 2022 it Rose to 6.85% and now again um as of um April so Far on average for the month we're at 7.16% so any case uh the rise in rates Over the past several years has been Quite remarkable especially when looking At rates going back to the early 1980s In any case getting back to zillow's Forecast here they're talking about the Uh increase in their home value forecast Went from 0.9% to a growth rate of 1.9% because they saw a Slowdown on the Year-year change in the number of people Deciding to list their houses or a Decrease in the number of lisings so Here is a report from red fin not red Fin Zillow um which is for March so March new lines increased by 3.7% compared to March of 2023 that was an increase but not as um As much compared to February February The year- increase was a gain of 20.8% in other words what Zilla is Saying here is that we're not seeing This rapid rise in new listings at least On a year-over-year basis and because of This uh uh you know slowdown that we saw In March that will likely impact Inventory levels and of course impact
Potentially home sales and home values In the weeks and months ahead in other Words if new listings were basically Going like this you know Skyrocketing um then that would imply we Would see downward pressure on home Prices but we're seeing actually just The opposite of that according to Zillow But I did find some you know differing Data though so according to realtor.com For the month of March um in sorry for The month of February I went back one Month and see how how the uh the number Of newly listed houses had changed so in February the number of newly listed Houses Rose by 11.3% but they announced in March it Increased to 15.5% so again I like to share multiple Sources of data on the channel so what Zillow is seeing regarding new listings Is different compared to Realtor.com also looking at redfin's Website as well regarding new listings Uh that increased by 88.4% uh year-over a year um it's is Going up higher compared to 2023 but We're still well below uh 2022 as well as 2021 going back to zillow's real estate Market predictions they also provided This map as well uh this is their um Home value forecast compared to or going Through March of
2025 and here's our key areas in blue or Green Aqua are areas in which home Values potentially could decrease Through March 2025 areas in yellow orange and red are Areas in which home values will increase Potentially uh through next year so the Biggest uh change I saw was this right Here New Orleans down by 4.2% in contrast Knoxville Tennessee Increasing by 6.1% you also can zoom in and I'll Provide a link to this in the video Description below here let's take a look At Northern California so home values Expected to decrease by 1.3% in uh San Francisco uh San Jose Down by 7% whereas Sacramento up by 4% Fresno up by 1.6% Bakersfield up by uh 2.7% also um Oxnard up and also Los Angeles also up by 1.2% San Diego the mean so price there Around $1 million now they're Forecasting a gain of 3.6% and also a gain of 3.5% in Phoenix Arizona now going just To the east here let's have a look at Tech Texas zoom out a little bit uh Dallas Texas up by 1.3 compared to San Antonio down by 2% and up by. 3% in Austin Texas uh Mc Allen Texas up by 3.9 Whereas Houston up by 2% and just Zooming out here the areas in which home
Values will increase the most is a lot Of parts in uh the southern metros as Well as the Northeast and I know a lot Of my viewers are located in Florida Let's have a look at Florida real quick And we'll move on talking about home uh Sales so in Florida uh Tampa Florida up By 3.6% uh through March of 2025 Miami up by 2.9 Lakeland Florida up By 2.9 so most of these metros uh They're forecasting for home values Increase over the next 12 months all Right let's change years uh slightly Here and talk about their forecast for Existing home sale In 2024 they're now calling for 4, 60,000 existing home sales in 2024 slightly below 2023 levels at 4.09 million I made this um you know Nerdy Excel file here to show how uh the Amount of existing home sales they're Calling for compares to years past and I Got this data from Nar by the way so the Forecast 4, 60,000 that be a decrease of 1% compared to one year ago what Happened one year ago uh we had 4, 9,000 That was the fewest number of existing Home sales in America since 1995 in other words that was a 28-year Low two years prior to that back in 2021 We had the highest amount since 2006 or A 15-year high so in two single years or
Two single years in two years we went From a 15-year high in sales down to a Uh 208y year low in any case if we had a 4, 60,000 uh close home sales this year That would be a decrease of 24% compared To 2019 on top of that the meeting number Of close home sales since the year of 2000 is just under 5.3 million ion this Means if we have just over 4 million Sales this year we'd be missing Approximately 1.2 million fewer compared To the long run average going back to Zillow's um housing market forecast the Reason why Zilla believes that we have Approximately a 29-year low in home Sales in 2024 is because of of course elevated Rates but also on top of that leading Indications of home sales in the coming Months suggest continued softness so for Example looking looking at these leading Indications uh let's have a look at Pending home sales so pending home sales According to red fin are down by 2.8% Year-over-year but on top of that the Yellow line right here is this year uh The current levels of pending home sales Is at least a three-year low during this Time frame lower than last year than 2022 as well as 2021 so because the Level of contracts being signed between Buyers and sellers is still at very low Levels this implies that close home
Sales in the next one to two months will Also remain muted as well in addition Let's have a look at applications for um Uh Home Loans to buy houses so one month Ago this is from the MBA uh for the week Ended March 88th the seasonally adjusted Purchase index which is a measure of the Amount of people submitting loan Applications to buy houses that fell by 11% from the pre previous year however In the report that was uh announced last Wednesday that actually got worse it Went from down 11% now it's at down 23% so big picture here we have a Three-year low regarding pending home Sales during this time frame according To red fin but on top of that the level Of people submitting loan applications To buy houses went from down 11% Year-over-year now it's down a whopping 23% on a yearyear basis additionally Looking at this chart according to Investing.com here's the mba's purchase Index over the past um 12 months you can See this we're not seeing this um you Know typical um upswing during the uh Spring home bind season we saw an uptick In uh December as well as some a couple Weeks here in January but ever since Then more or less on this downward uh Swing here so this implies that again if We're seeing a lock of people um Submitting loan applications to buy Houses this implies that close home
Sales in the weeks and months ahead will Also remain very low as well and with That said please come below with your Real estate market predictions through 2025 do you believe that Zillow is going To be right regarding this a rise in Home prices and also a decrease in home Sales please leave me a comment below I Appreciate you guys watching today's Video like And subscribe also if you Guys want a real estate agent referral Check out my website which is real Estate teamind er.com I'll provide a Link in the video description below for That as well anyways hope you guys have An awesome day and look forward to Seeing you on the next video [Music] T [Music]
