Housing Supply surges by more than 50% In many Metro areas and sellers are now Being forced to slash they're asking Prices and welcome back to real estate Mindset today's video is going to be Absolutely Bonkers now the data is in And what we're going to do guys is we're Going to go into zillow's housing market Map I'm going to show you guys the map Of for sale by owners I'm also going to Show you guys the map of foreclosures But also we're going to look at the Bigger picture which is the map of price Projections from Zillow now you guys may Have watched a video that I've recently Put out on how Zillow once again is Flip-flopping on their forecast they're Getting way more bearish if you will on The house market and there's a reason Why that reason is two things okay Number well it's actually three things The lack of sustainability number two How overwhelmingly unaffordable things Are and number three inventory growth Insane in fact two St out of the 50 are Now above pre pandemic levels of Inventory which is Texas and Florida and So I really really hope you guys enjoy Today's video but more importantly than Enjoying learning I really hope you guys Learn something in fact if you guys Learn anything and keep in mind Everything's going to be linked in my Description but if you learn anything
Shoot me a Bonkers shoot me a Bonkers Below if you learn something let's get Started so we're going to look at Another article from Fast Company titled Map here's zillow's updated home price Forecast for more than 400 housing Markets now the latest report by Zillow Predicts us home prices will raise will Go up 1.4% between March 2024 and March of 2025 but year overy year ending the year They don't even have us at 1% you guys Zill is now thinking less than a percent At 0.5 and in 2025 same thing so Obviously some markets are going to get Rocked others might not get rocked now This goes on despite 7% morgage rates Strain housing affordability and Rising Active inventory National home prices Continue to climb and that is not Entirely true in fact we finally broke 2022 record as far as four-week rolling Average we have not hit a new record With month-over-month median price and And prices of new homes are going down In fact prices in Texas and in Florida Are going down as well so this is macro Right if you want to get micro Subdivision now us home prices as Measured by Zillow home value index Rose 1.1% and that is month over Monon Between February 2024 and March of 2024 Now I want you guys to really look at This chart right here let me move my
Picture so you guys can see this a Little bit better all right so here's The Zillow home value Index this is kind Of similar to K Schiller and what I want To point out you guys is in 2022 that's when we had our first Shakeup of home prices in other words That's when home prices started going Down again depending on the data you're Looking at caser actually paints an even Uglier picture but this started again Back in August and price decline Continued for one two three four five Six seven months so we've had price Decline for seven months starting in August so all these people like Travis You were wrong Travis you were wrong Well actually I wasn't completely wrong Was I wrong about the recession starting Yeah the and I I will constantly say a Lot of things are going to follow the Recession so if things are kicked back Is because that recession that pesky Little recession which another thing That caught me off guard to be honest is The massive deficit spending but Regardless you guys home values only Rebounded one two three four five months I'm sorry six months if you count that So the entire time I've been doing YouTube videos we've had more months of Price decline versus prices going up did Y'all know that but regardless you guys In 2023 We Had A Little Bit Stronger
Home buying demand well per se right and Prices started going down in September All the way till January so it slowed Down a little bit but the reason that I Pointed this out is I wanted to show you Guys the great financial crisis the same Thing happened during the great Financial crisis in 2006 same thing look It house values went down but it went Down at a slower rate than 2022 in 2022 we actually had sharper Nationwide price decline than during the Start of the GFC now the second year However which was 2007 price decline Really spiraled out of control and Really didn't stop until maybe June and July of 2009 and then it picked up again Again and then it kind of finally Balanced out going back to kind of a Normal housing market back in 2012 so Looking at that so far what I can tell You and going through the GFC myself we Had faster price decline this time Around but we also had a more ferocious Rebound that rebound was in 2023 now it makes sense when we step Back and we think about it because even Though during the GFC people were Cashing out and they were getting money Like crazy they were still spending it Like crazy and we did not have the Government and fed wrecking us to this Extent and so what I mean to say is There's still a lot of money in the
System and because there was so much Monty printing during the lockdowns During the last three to four years it Will take more time for things to Balance back for Price Discovery to Happen obviously prices go up quickly It takes a lot longer for prices to go Down but don't make the mistake of Assuming that a price correction isn't Going to happen we don't know what the New prices will be because we don't have Normal inventory we're still catching up To being locked down I mean we were Literally locked down I I've never had I Mean has no one's ever had that happen Most people have never had that happen Before and so again it's going to take Time they've done a lot of damage to us Now going back into the maps I know I Promised you guys some maps here's Zillow forecast for regional home prices Between March of this year and March of 2025 now the red is a negative the blue Is a positive so they're saying most of The decline is going to happen in Texas And Louisiana little bit of pockets over Here you guys can see that in Pennsylvania a little bit over here as Well in north northern areas but the Thing is is it's not glowing blue like It was in 2020 and 2021 because Prices skyrocketed up so much that it Broke the hous market and in my opinion It's definitely not sustainable but
They're saying that the leading Metro is Going to be Lake Charles Louisiana and Louisiana is in some trouble so I you Know what that's that could be also Johnstown Pennsylvania they suspect 7.7% decline now here's where I think Zillow is making a very costly mistake For the people that are entrusting them They are showing no value decline in Florida and right now Florida Year-over-year had over a 50% increase in inventory in fact in Florida right now they have more Inventory than before lockdowns they Have more inventory than before Lockdowns and they're almost caught up To 2019 spring home buying season I Think they're off by about 5,000 units To match that you guys it is so close to Falling apart in Florida in Texas it's Shocking absolutely shocking but Regardless look at this no loss Whatsoever in fact they're saying what 2 To 3% growth depending on where we hover Absolutely shocking now again Texas no Texas is going down but they're not even Showing the crazy thing guys is they're They're showing Austin's going up Austin's on the year-over-year decline List right now right now you guys it's On the year-over-year decline list but They're saying up basically sideways um No Dallas look at that Dallas is they're Saying it's going to go up in Dallas
Just crazy stuff right here and nothing In where's Houston all right here's Houston so Houston also they're saying 02 increase so look at this with the Grain of salt but if you want to come Back here and kind of look at your General area because you're interested On what Zillow has to say about it come Back here now let's go to Silicon Valley Real quick look at so they're saying Silicon Valley is done right now San Jose had a massive rebound they're Saying that's going to end you see that They're saying down for San Jose Year-over-year 7% so silicon Valley is in some trouble San Francisco Santa Rosa all down Chico All down you see that the market Starting to figure this stuff out but I Don't necessarily care about the market My most important thing is that you guys Understand what's going on because quite Frankly I say this all the time my Channel and what I'm saying is not for Filthy Rich investors in fact it's not Even for investors my channel is for all Of the people the 90% most Americans That are frustrated and trying to Understand who do you trust what's going On in the housing market can I listen to Someone that has an honest opinion That's not just selling me on purchasing That's my job that's what I look at That's my job and I'm going to tell you
These bulls hate me because I'm a crash BR that knows how to purchase real Estate better than them and not only That I also know how to help everyday Consumers better than them so when they Come at me it s it really helps that I Know more than them about real estate And they hate me for that but I don't Care because my channel this community Is for you now having said that I'm Going to show you a couple tools okay Just a couple tools on Zillow I'm going To show you guys how to find Foreclosures and how to find for sale by Owners I'm not saying those are the best Transactions but I want to give you guys Again a few more tools but plus I want You guys to see what's going on in the Market and also know Zillow does not Even have close to all of the data we're Missing such a large scale of data it's Shocking and and and I don't know why People don't like talk about that more Either way let's look at for sale by Owner okay guys so this is so cool look At this this is for sale by owner I Would say that there are you know There's a lot of for sale by owners this Is showing 779 uh results now you got to be careful You know a lot of people may think they Can get a better deal going to A4 cell By owner but a lot of times it's someone That's disgruntled a seller that's
Disgruntled that think they know Everything about real estate and often It leads to problems so tread lightly But again the way you do that is you Just go to the Buy Tab right here and You just scroll down to for sale by Owner that's all you got to do it's so Easy but when we look at just Houston Guys look at 125 I mean we can zoom in To the map here but let me move my face Picture but also you have a list here so You got your map on the left and on the Right you got your home some of these Houses I mean this house is nice this is In Seabrook this has a pool so I wonder Why they're selling it probably because It's new and they have no equity that You know that's what I would imagine This it doesn't make a lot of sense that They would do that my opinion but either Way you guys here is the massive list of For sell by owner now likewise we could Do the same thing with foreclosures and With auctions by going to buy tab right Here and then scrolling down let me move My picture by going to the Buy Tab here And then scrolling down to foreclosures All right now here's a list of Foreclosures so this is the general Houston area there's about a little over 100 foreclosures you guys again can zoom In you can check that out or you can go To this list on the right here some of These houses are actually at least from
Judging from the pictures are very nice Purchasing foreclosures are very Dangerous a lot of times you can't do an Inspection a lot of times you have to go To an auction and it takes a lot of Money to repair and a lot of time guys Especially in Texas because in Texas up Until recently we didn't have a huge gap Uh like in California where people could Flip so in many situations to purchase a Foreclosure it didn't even make sense Because maybe they're 10% under market Value but you got to put $50,000 in the House to even get it up to code so you Got to be careful is the point I'm Trying to make now one more thing I want To show you guys and I really want to Beat home as the public as consumers we Need access to mls in fact as someone That wants to empower the everyday American Consumer if you guys just had Access to MLS I could blow your minds I Mean I could turn you guys into machines Absolute studs out there purchasing real Estate and using and comprehending the Data sadly though we don't have that now I want to say that I am in the process Of making a form special for Zillow Because as you guys can see here this is Comps so if you want to go to comps okay Now I teach subdivision analysis so Division analysis is using comps now When we look at Houston we have 63,000 comps but you'll notice the
Dollar sign is missing the dollar sign Is missing because unfortunately Texas Is a non-disclosure State and I cannot Find and I cannot use this to help me Figure things out in Texas but other States you can and I want to show you Guys the way that you do that again We're going to go to buy we're going to Go to homes for sale right here and I'm Going to put in California because it's It is disclosure State let's just go Los Angeles okay so here's Los Angeles now I've put right here I've changed this to I'm going to change this to sold because I only want to look at the comps I'm Going to go to more I'm going to scroll Down and I'm going to put sold in the Last 36 months so that I have three Years of data in Los Angeles do y' all See that so I can zoom into subdivisions See this so if I only want this Subdivision right here for Example right like I can assume right Into that into these blocks right here You see that guys and I can really get Good you know you know it will it will Be helpful so it's not the MLS the MLS I Can access all of these houses I can get Specific terms so it's not everything But at least this is helpful you guys Can see like look this home sold for 1.8 Million this one sold for 4 million That's crazy this one sold for 2 million And here's the comps and I would you
Know and when I'm doing my calculations I start at the bottom and work my way up So I start at the most the oldest comp Which is 2021 now what I use guys to Determine whether or not I'm kind of Getting a decent or even a great deal I'm using 2021 averages and medians to Determine whether or not I have a good Deal okay but again this is kind of how You do it with Zillow I hope this is Helpful I really hope you guys are doing Your homework if you're stressing out if You're frustrated trying to figure out What's going on well hop on Zillow if You're in on disclosure State and go Check out some comps it's really neat Way to kind of figure things out but if You really want to know what's going on You got to have a relationship with a Great great realtor the problem is guys Is they're just so hard to find is it Impossible no but it is hard to find and Unfortunately a lot of them are still Busy the great Realtors are still busy Probably busier than ever it's just Everyone else that is in the ditches so Again I'm going to say this I go on Record I say this constantly a great the Key word is great realtor is worth their Weight in gold and to the realtors that Are great Realtors obviously what we do Is we don't use people's emotions we Don't play with people's emotions we Provide people data and we provide we
Provide people data and subdivision Review and we help teach them on how to Analyze comparable data the clients that I have closing actually today can become Realtors they're now experts in Subdivision analysis because when I was The realtor Not only was I provid Proving them data I was also teaching Them and that's why I have the home Buyer course I put my heart and soul go Check that out it is in my description Other than that go guys I really hope That you found value in this video use Some of these free data providers to Help figure out on a local level what's Going on in your Market it will help you I can tell you that much now other than That if you are out there investing in Real estate you guys already know I wish You luck and I hope you win
