[Music] It's a good World good World what the heck is going on with all Of this foreclosure data is there going To be no foreclosure crisis or is Foreclosures skyrocketing right now well Today you guys we're going to answer Those questions and then we're also Going to dig into Data that's going to Tell us what states have the worst Foreclosure rate for commercial real Estate and then we're going to try to Answer the question will the foreclosure That are skyrocketing and Commercial Real Estate impact unemployment and will The unemployment lead to additional Foreclosures now we're going to review Today a quarterly report from Atom now atom or Adam is one of the Leading providers of foreclosure data Just like Black Knight now according to Attom most of the records that they're Pulling are public records and before I Dig in and we really kind of see what's Going on with foreclosure data first let Me show you guys how they're getting Their data to begin with since we Continuously are learning that we have a Data corruption problem it's almost Impossible to know exactly what's going On with so much data corruption I mean Where are all the people that are in Serious delinquency and forbearance from
The lockdown forbearance plans why is That 327,000 people not being reported in This data why I don't have that answer Regardless let me show you how they're Getting their data as always guys Everything will be linked in in my Description but here's their methodology The atom us foreclosure market report Provides a count of the total number of Properties with at least one foreclosure Filing entered into the atom data Warehouse during the month and quarter Some foreclosure filings entered into The database during the quarter may have Been recorded in the previous quarter Data and here we go guys data is Collected from more than 3,000 counties Nationwide and those Counties account for more than 99% of the US population now the thing That they're not saying is is how much Of that data is from states that are Non-disclosure states that are missing Some of the information so it's good That they're pulling from 99% or it's Good that they're pulling from counties That equate 99% of the population but Again they're not differentiating the States like Texas for example that is a Non-disclosure state so still guys data Triangulation is still very very Important but let's get into their Quarterly report now all right guys so
The name of this report is US forclosure Activity increases quarterly in q1 of 2024 so activity again you guys does Increase but I'm going to tell you guys Just from looking at this data alone It's not high historically okay it is The trajectory is high but when we Compare it to the GFC it's not high but Again I'm going to show you guys where We were at in 2006 and 2007 and the Similarities are alarming now it's a Little bit lower but again this data is Missing we don't even have the people That are still in forbearance from Lockdowns so anyways we'll get to all The data here in a second now starting With the first paragraph Irvine California April 11th 2024 so it's a Fairly new report a Adam a leading Curator of land property and real estate Data today released its q1 2024 us Foreclosure market report which shows a Total of 95,000 us properties with a for closure Filing during the first quarter of 2024 That is up you guys not a lot though Only up 3% from the previous quarter but again Less than 1% from a year ago so it's Down about 1% from a year ago so it is Again it's ticking up but it's still low And remember as well they did a VA Moratorium so that VA moratorium is Obviously impacting these numbers would
You guys agree with that isn't that fair To say it's also important to note that A filing does not mean that house is up For sale okay it just means that it's Filed publicly generally that's what it Means it doesn't even always mean that But it's a long way from becoming Inventory and up for sale in the housing Market now the report also shows a total Of 32878 us properties with foreclosure Filings in March of 2024 down less than 1% from the previous month and down 10% from a year ago so again the Trajectory is going up but this is down 10% % y over y all right again I look at the Moratoriums moving on q1 2024's Foreclosure data reveals a market is in Transition with slight increases in Filings and starts alongside a notable Decrease in REO properties while Foreclosures remain relatively stable We're closely monitoring the trends Homeowners continue to hold significant Equity contributing to a persistent hot Housing market it's also important to Note that that's pre 2022 most home buyers post 20202 do not Have a whole bunch of equity very Important to understand those Differences it's really important guys To get that now foreclosure starts do Increase Nationwide a total of
67,000 us property started the Forclosure process in q1 of 2024 up 2% From the previous quarter and up 4% from A year ago so foreclosure starts are Actually up 4% from a year ago starting Here States that had 100 or more Foreclosure starts in q1 of 2024 and saw The greatest quarterly increases Included interesting stuff here guys New Hampshire keep your eyes on New Hampshire up 43% Illinois up 26% Florida uhoh 22% Rhode Island up 21% and Nevada up 16% I'm assuming that Louisiana's not in There Mississippi's not in in there Maybe because they're non-disclosure States not 100% sure now take a look at This graph here guys this is the US Foreclosure starts okay I want to make a Point that right now this is where we're At with starts all right but if we look Back here okay right before the Recession so here's where this dot that I'm drawing here is right before the Recession so right before the recession The trajectory was going up but it was Still relatively low at around 200,000 So about you know a little bit more than Double I would say than what it is right Now so even though it's low all right Understand that it was also fairly was Still higher than today but it was still Fairly low going into the recession Things really don't kick off guys until
We go into recession until we have Unemployment unemployment is will kill The housing market and so you see starts Literally skyrocketing right here in the Recession and it took a long time for That to neutralize so it kind of Neutralized in 2014 so recession happened 2008 and it Took six years for the Foreclosure Crisis as far as starts to kind of Normalize during the GFC just wanted to Paint a picture of how quickly things Can deteriorate now let's look at the Filing so we have filings and we have Starts all right so a little bit Different now right now here's where We're sitting and we've been sitting Here okay at about 100,000 we've been Sitting there guys since about Q one of 2022 so essentially we've been Frozen in time for a few reasons one uh Overwhelming Equity number two Overwhelming moratorium so there's been A lot of moratoriums but again let's go Back right before the recession started Which was About right here so again even though We're not quite where we were during the GFC it didn't pick up until we were Headed into recession and then when we Started recession skyrocketed didn't Really start coming down until 2010 all right that's when we kind of Hit the peak so 2010 hit the peak and
Then it came down obviously taking till About would you say about 2018 so it took until about 2018 you Guys for everyone to figure out loan Modifications and moratoriums and for Everything to get back to normal so in Other words when it starts it takes a Long time for things to be fixed so the Question is will consumers start to Default on mortgages obviously my you Know my thoughts on that is is yes the Only reason they haven't skyrocketed is Obviously the moratoriums but also the Labor market so far the labor market has Been fairly hot and we'll get to that in A minute which is why I want to go over Foreclosures on Commercial properties Anyways moving on now here's what most People are looking at guys this is what Basically turns into inventory okay Which by the way during the GFC we only Had about I think 300 to 400,000 homes that sold as a foreclosure Most of that stuff was either loone Modif ification or short cells we didn't Have a massive wave of foreclosures like Most people think but Bank repost which Is means the bank now owns it increased 7% quarter over quarter okay so q1 2024 Is up 7% from the previous quarter but Down this is a crazy thing down 20% from a year ago that is a massive Decrease you guys so again lots of Tampering with the foreclosure and REO
Side of things right now but let's go Back in history now this is right about Where the GFC started so again you can See when recession started boom Skyrocketed upward aros's essentially Peaking right here end of 2009 beginning Of 2010 and then took a long time to Stabilize probably stabilized around 2016 so again like I've been saying and I hope that this data is is showing us Things can happen quickly once we enter Recession when it happens a doom Loop Can happen that will take a considerable Amount of time more than likely to stop You guys this stuff is crazy okay this Is the average time to foreclosure that Has actually increased 2% from the Previous quarter so the time people are In their houses before forclosure again That's increasing it's increasing Because of moratoriums loan mods things Like that but look at this guys when I Circle again right before the recession Look at this only 200 days so right Before the GFC people are in the house 200 days before the foreclosure process Happened is that is that absolutely Insane look at it right now 736 days so Right now on average people are in their Home for two years before they're Foreclosed and that depends on the States some states is even worse the Thing here is guys and really what I'm Trying to say is during the GFC the
Bigger issue was defaults yes also Investor liquidation and purchasing Power of Americans were destroyed so you Had purchasing power destroyed as well a Lot of people don't talk about that but That's EX actly what happened because Most of the people back then their Houses did not go up for sale they were In loan modification or they went up for Sale as short sales not foreclosures I Really think about this a lot you guys I'm like man this is taking forever how Are we not in a foreclosure how are Forclosure still this slow I get it Record high Equity but what about the People after 2022 I mean holy smokes I Mean it's safe to say at least in my Opinion that the labor market again I Wanted a foreclosure myself I had a Foreclosure I was one of the 300 400,000 People that actually lost their home and It was sold as a foreclosure and again I Think it's the labor market I really do Guys so let's figure out first of all I Think a Black Swan commercial real Estate so let's see what states have the Worst foreclosures happening in Commercial real estate and then just try To figure out will a commercial real Estate foreclosure meltdown lead to Unemployment first let me show you what States are in the worst shape and why Again you guys this is an article from At M Adam this is the top 10 states with
The highest number of commercial Foreclosures in March of 2024 this is a Couple days old I'm just going to go Down to the top states right here you Guys starting with California now I really want us to focus On the year-over-year change okay so Right now March of 2024 there's 187 Foreclosures commercial foreclosures in California you guys think about the Number I'm about to tell you that's Up Year-over-year 4 5% I don't think California is out of The woodwork personally 45% up in California number two New York take a Look guys New York is sitting at 61 Properties in foreclosure that's up 65% Number three is Florida that's up Year-over-year 107% with 60 commer it Could be massive properties 60 in Foreclosure you guys here's number four Year-over-year change my home state of Texas 129% increase 55 foreclosing in March look at New Jersey at 133% Increase sitting at 42 commercial Foreclosures number six Pennsylvania at A change of 35% number sevenish Georgia At 163% now look at Ohio Ohio is Actually down good job Ohio you're down 34% but not Connecticut sadly Connecticut is up 500% Illinois up 31% again you guys with Those triple digit growth in those States I would be concerned if I I'm in
An area a local area that has that now Look it look at the difference okay Between 2023 and in 2024 the blue line Is 2023 the orange line is 2024 look at the Massive jump huge Spike except again Here in Ohio very interesting now I do Personally think that will lead to Unemployment now right now guys Obviously the unemployment rate is Historically low very very low 3.8% but Don't forget that's counting part-time Jobs and government jobs we're losing Part-time jobs we're losing the really Really good jobs that are designed to Sustain the economy without it being on Life support like it is right now but It's at 3.8% you guys it's being propped Up the labor Market's being propped up We see that right here when we look at All employees government now you can see That government jobs has been Skyrocketing in fact if we look here Going back to September of 2022 okay so From September 2022 to right now We've gained okay 1 million government Jobs in about a year and a half again This feeds recession this is not healthy We've gained a million government jobs You can see that in this graph in the Last year and a half that's a huge Warning sign but on top of that guys I'm Telling people not only look out for Investor liquidation this is a Freddy
Mack report I want to show show you the Graph but let me read this again this is Freddy Mack that's saying this the Higher interest rates are impacting Consumer Credit performance while Serious delinquency rates for credit Cards and Autos are increasing mortgage Performance has remained better than the Other sectors credit cards have had the Highest increase into transitions into Serious delinquencies which is 30 days Or more past due and that is followed by Auto loans and don't forget remember Another thing that's propping up the Economy they've suspended payments on School loans don't forget that as a Result of higher for longer rates and Sticky inflation consumers are relying More on credit card debt and Coincidentally transitions into Delinquency are above levels seen prior To the pandemic so again you guys take a Look at this chart this green line first Of all is credit cards this is serious Delinquency credit cards are you know if We go back here this is about 20 highs In fact this is higher than leading into The GFC remember the GFC started Basically the end of 2007 beginning of 2008 where we were at going into the Recession of the great financial crisis Yet we're not even in recession and That's not just credit cards also auto Loans if yall don't think that's going
To put massive pressure on the financing Sector you guys are wrong look at the Auto loans you guys the serious Delinquency rate in auto loans is also Near 2011 levels and again it's higher It looks like auto loans are actually Higher than the lead into the GFC Consumers are struggling it's the top 1% That are spending all the money the People at the bottom are suffering and Look it there's another thing inflaming The number student loans student loans Is no delinquency at all because they've Outlawed it now you can see mortgage Delinquency the trajectory is going up But we're far from where we were at the GFC but remember guys we were under 2% Of serious delinquency under 2% so yes We're low right now now but we were also Low going into the GFC don't forget that So my question is is the real situation Here is that the lag effects really Haven't hit the top 1% maybe the top 5% Meanwhile the bottom 95% of us are Already crushed we're already feeling The lag effects we're already suffering And make no mistake you guys a lot of Those people that had those low interest Rates and high Equity have refinanced Into higher interest rates to cash out To try to pay P off debt to continue to Support their Lifestyle that's what happened to me you Can't see that in the data you know that
Because of how people live their lives I'm around consumers all the time I see This all the time consumer spending Habits are bad that's why we can get Ahead by waiting and working on our Purchasing power so if it's me and I'm On the sidelines again I'm holding up I'm going to let things play out if I Find a great deal I'm going to execute I'm going to get that deal because I Understand what a great deal is it's Basic simple easy math and I'm going to Increase my purchasing power my credit My income my assets because remember if We have a meltdown of delinquencies and Default a doom Loop can happen if credit Tightens up it's going to be harder to Qualify for a loan during a recession Which means you probably should qualify Right now because it will be harder to Qualify in the future in other words Guys it's not too late to get ahead Other than that I really hope you guys Enjoyed this video uh everything will be Linked in my description and if you're Out there investing in real estate you Guys already know I wish you luck and I Hope you win
