Hey welcome back in today's video I want To talk about the California housing Market this is part one of my two-part Video series I make each and every month Regarding the California real estate Market in today's video we'll talk about What's happening right now regarding Home prices hous inventory home sales And much much more at the Statewide Level in a few days I'll post the um Update regarding what's happening at the Countywide level uh this by the way is From the California Association rors it Says California home sales lose steam in March while meeting home price hits 7mon High I would add an asterisk there an Increase in prices in March is a Seasonal increase so it's not a big deal To see a seven-month rise in home prices Anyways it says California's housing Market lost momentum in March as sales Fell on a year-year basis for the first Time in three months after registering Back-to-back increases both in January As well as February so let's talk about This as well let me get back to the First page here um this is a slideshow From uh car as well um I drill this down To about half as many pages um because I Want to provide a highlevel overview About what's happening right now in the California housing market and by the way A big increase of inventory levels which Is a night and day difference compared
To the past several years any case uh Today's video as I mentioned right there Is based on existing single family Detached houses unless otherwise stated So in another words we're excluding Brand new home construction in today's Video as well as multif Family Properties as well and condos so only Looking at existing single family houses So sales decreased by 4.4% from one year Ago but a bigger decrease compared to One month ago which is pretty alarming Uh the median sales price just um under $855,000 that's a 7.7% gain from 12 Months ago I have a lot more to share Regarding um home price changes um ever Since 2010 though uh so stay tuned for That uh meanwhile the month supply is at 2.6 months still at relatively low Levels but a big increase of 24% days in The market uh this is a time frame when You list your house for sale until you Accept an offer from home buyer that's At 19 days um this March and that's down By about 21% year-over Year all right Let's talk a little bit more regarding Um home sales because again sales Decrease on a year- your basis that was The first year- decrease in close home Sales in 2024 but what I'm focused on right here Is this right here a 7.8% decrease in closed home sales this March compared to February and last time
I checked we're in the spring home Buying season I would Imagine um it would be more normal to See an increase in sales in March and of Course in April and May uh at least on a Month-to-month basis but uh this March Compared to February down by 7.8% um I really wish that um Carr would Provide historical data of home sales um Because um there's really no way for me To tell whether or not this uh 7.8% Decrease is normal or abnormal you guys Can pause this video and screenshot it But it's really hard to tell where March Is so in general when I look at this um Uh chart here it looks like in general That sales tend to increase in March and It would be abnormal to see a huge Decrease down by 8% from February uh but Please leave me a comment below with Your thoughts regarding this looking Ahead if sales continue to retreat or Decrease um then look for inventory or The the amount of houses for sale in California to increase as well plus We're seeing more new linges hitting the Market and also um pending home sales um Were relatively flat in March this will All support the growth of inventory Levels in the coming months and of Course Please Subscribe if you haven't Done so already and I'll give you the Lat updates regarding the California Housing market and of course uh the
Housing market in the US in general um All right let's talk about this as well Because the mix in sales is also Impacting the growth rate in the meean So price in California now here's what I Mean by this so here's the percent um Change this March compared to one year Ago by Price segment so houses that sold This March in the range of 1 million to Just under $2 million an increase of 6% Houses that sold for over $2 million a Giant increase of 20% whereas all these other price Segments Are down on a year ofe basis in addition Here's a share by Price segment as well So houses that sold for over $1 Million uh that was about 34% of all Home sales this March were for over $1 Million and back in March of 2023 that Was only 20% so because we're seeing More luxury home sales maybe I should Not say luxury because a million dollar House in you know San Francisco or the Area or Los Angeles is a fixer in many Areas so anyways houses that were Selling for over $1 million that Increase is causing the U median so Price on a Statewide level um to also Rise as well or it's at least impacting The prices so um you can see that right Here as well so houses that selling that Have sold for over $1 million and also For over $2 million um are up whereas
Sales for in the more affordable range Are actually going down this is also Something I found to be really Interesting as well so let's kind of Look back at May of 2019 right pre-co Levels back then uh the grade line which Is sales for over $1 million the blue Line is houses that sold for zero to 499,000 um please leave me a comment Below if you guys got a house for free By the way anyways for less than $500,000 back in May of 2019 out of all The sales that month uh the uh percent There was around 45% so 45% of all home Sales were for less than $500,000 back Then and less than 20% were for over $1 Million now fast forward to March about 34% of all home sales for over $1 Million and 25% for less than $500,000 so big picture the mixing sales Is supporting the growth rate in home Prices um also like I mentioned at the Beginning of this video here talking About an increase of new listings and Also a huge decrease in sales which will Likely impact inventory I should call Say likely increase inventory because We're seeing less contracts being signed Between buyers and sellers and that is This right here as well um pending home Sales this March compared to March 2023 Only increasing by 1.1% which implies that close home sales In the next 1 to two months because it
Takes approximately 30 days to close on A house so you get your offer accepted In California approximately 30 days Later you can get your keys to your new House also in regards to pending sales We're also seeing a big increase for Over $2 million as well U which is right There um that will also likely support Home prices in the next coming months as Well because we're seeing more luxury Home sales in California all right I Have a lot to share regarding prices Here so hope you are still watching Today's video and of course if you guys Get any value at today's video please Hit the like button I great appreciate That all right uh the median so price Again just under um 855,000 big gains Compared to one month ago seasonal Though which I'll share with you guys And also a gain of 7.7% from 12 months ago just like my Previous videos I want to touch on um The changes in home prices and how that Compares to years past so um I pulled This from the C Association RoR website I am a member of car and I am able to Share this with you guys anyways like I Mentioned um 85449 is the meeting sale price in California this March that's the high Since August however that is a seasonal Increase in prices because home prices T Increase in the spring and summer months
And decrease in the winter months in General before I share the year-over Your change as well as the month to to Month change let's really talk really Quickly regarding what happened last Month back in February when I made that Video uh this 99.7% increase compared to February of 2023 was the biggest year- of your Increase since March of 2022 and as I mentioned one month ago I Was doubtful this trend will would uh Continue uh due to an increase in Mortgage rates and inventory levels as Well and you can see that right here Because uh we did see an increase still But not as high compared to February a Gain of 7.7% however that is much different Compared to what happened in March of 2023 when at that time we saw a decrease By 6.8% now it's up by nearly 8% this also Marks the ninth consecutive month of Year your gains after we had eight Consecutive decreases in California this Uh 7. 7% gain is lower than the long run Average though so I looked at um the Historical average um in March going Back to 2010 based on my nerdy Excel Formula there is a gain of 9% so overall Over the past what 14 years uh we saw a Gain of 9% whereas this year only an Increase of
7.7% and like I mentioned last month the Increase in rates and inventory should Slow price growth um in the coming Months and more on that here in just a Little bit let's also look at the Month-to-month change because again we Saw a big increase up by 6% compared to February and like I note right there That is a seasonal increase it's normal See home prices increase um in the Spring home buy season for comparison Sake um home prices and when I mean home Prices I mean the median sale price Increased by 7.9% from a year ago as the Housing market was in recovery mode February was a different story though so The data coming in is ever changing so In February of 2023 compared to January It was down 2.2% whereas this February We saw a gain uh 2.2% and now we're up By 6% compared to the gain we saw last Year up by 7.9% I also looked at the Average um February to March change Going back to 2010 the average there was An increase of 8.3% whereas this year uh an in increase Of 6% so the year- ofe as as well as the Month-to-month change not as high Compared to Long Run averages something I added in today's video which is Different compared to my previous videos Is I want to look at the change from the Peak the all-time record highs of home Prices was back in May of
2022 when we're at at $893,000 so the peak which was in May of 2022 compared to the trough which was February uh 2023 uh was down by $158,000 I know that is impacted by Seasonality but just want to point that Out because now we're rolling down by 38,000 because home prices have been Increasing ever since really the spring Months of 2023 in fact home prices have increased By 16% compared to February's trough now We're only down by 4% compared to the All-time record highs um regarding the Uh year-over-year change up by uh 7.7% I also want to share how that Compares to preco levels so the change In prices from March of 2019 through March of 2020 was a gain of 88.3% whereas in 2018 and 19 only incre A0 2% um back then that was an Environment in which rates were Increasing but not by very much I think In the beginning of um 2018 we're at an Average 30-year fix at around 4% and by The time we hit um November that year uh It increased to about 5% um so a Increase but not a very big change Compared to the giant increases we saw In 2022 um also March 17 through March um 18 up by nearly 9% and just for fun I Added this as well um the correction we
Had or I should say the giant correction We had um back in 08 and 09 uh we saw a Giant decrease of 39.7% and lastly the change in prices Over the past four years is an increase Of 40% as well on top of that the Average 30-year fix rate mortgage rate Was around 3% back in March of 2020 so Home buyers are being hit by higher Rates and also elevated prices as well All right let's get back to um cars um Slideshow here let's talk about the Average sale price to final list price Ratio that's at 100% it has been paid at Around 100% um ever since really early Uh 2023 this means that on average for the Houses that did sell in March they sold For the sellers final list price now Speaking of houses selling for over list Price around 47% of all houses that sold This February or this March I should say Sold for over the sellers asking price Which is higher compared to uh 12 months Ago but much less than the peak that was Set back in April 2022 at 73% all right let's talk about inventory Levels and the month supply so month Supply is at 2.6 months that's a gain um From the 2. one month we saw uh one year Ago um but right now I mean just looking At you know 2007 look at that a 16mon Supply now it's only at 2.6 months it's Absolutely crazy to see the runup in
Supply in 05 through 07 uh extremely High levels of inventory which of course Crash the housing market um active Listings or housing inventory has been Increasing um in February and March Which is seasonal um but it is up from a Year ago but we're way below um pre- Pandemic levels so right now for example We have around 20,000 houses for sale um At this time in 2018 we had over 40,000 And also over 40,000 approaching 50,000 Uh back in 2019 also so far we're not seeing this Giant runup of inventory like we saw in 2022 which is one of the main reasons Why home prices um decrease so much um But of course time will tell because Again I'm going to be saying here again That I believe that we'll see inventory Increase which will be seasonal but um We could see a bigger increase due to a Lack of contracts being signed and also 7.4% rates that we're seeing uh in Today's market right now speaking of Active listings that increased by 24.5% um year-over-year much different Compared to the huge decreases we saw in 2023 and especially in 2020 and 2021 and again part of the reason of This growth rate of inventory is due to A decrease of home sales and also new Linges also increasing as well this March an increase by 13.9% from March of
2023 so that marks three consecutive Months of year- your gains in the number Of newly listed houses prior to that There was 18 consecutive months of Decreases so a huge decrease of new Listings uh in the last half of 2022 and For much of 2023 and now it's actually Getting reversed which is a positive Sign if you guys want to buy a house for The month of March there was 18,33 new listings compar that to the Same time frame in 2018 there was 2,604 so even though we're up by 13.9% From 12 months ago we're still down by 29% from March of 2018 also less than March of 2019 as Well in regards to the relationship Between home sales and new listings Here's a really good snapshot looking at That um because look at 2020 as well as 2021 the orange bar are closed home Sales the blue lines here are new list Seems so um back then we saw a huge Increase in sales which depleted hous Inventory because sales outpace new Lis Scenes each and every month more or less Uh during that time frame which is much Different compared to preo levels where It's more normal to see more new listin Compared to home sales um so what we saw Back in 18 and 19 is exactly what we're Seeing right now whereas new Les scenes Are pacing home sales but the gap or the
Difference there is not as great Compared to preco levels and lastly Let's have a look at the um percent of Reduced price listings these are home Sellers that list their house for sale But they have to reduce their asking Price because they ask too much for Their house right so the share of price Drops is at 28.4% this March um this is um on a Downward Trend ever since the last half Of 2023 which is normal But I want to share this with you guys As well um here's a really good snapshot Looking at the percent um of um price Drops excuse me uh this is according to Alus research.com a really good website If you guys want to look at analytics Regarding uh the national um housing Market each of the states and also at The city level as well so according to Them which is more recent data um for The week ended April 19th this year the Share price drops is at 24% this is slightly higher compared to Last year but way higher compared to 2022 as well as 2021 also at uh about 24% right now this Is roughly in par with April of 2020 um but still lower than um May of 2019 when at that time the share price Drops was at 28% with that said thank you so much for Watching today's video I appreciate you
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