[Music] Something terrible is happening in the Housing market as redin continues to Manipulate the trajectory of their Housing market graphs and time and time Again we learn we're at the mercy of These data providers and their financial Bias their paid narrative and their lack Of boots on the ground data but also Guys there's something great happening In the housing market as well as median Sales price has appeared potentially Hopefully to have finally broken Seasonality as median sales pre has Declined on a week over week basis Regardless of that guys we know that What we're about to review from redin is Macro data and so real estate is about Location and so one of the things that I Want you as the viewer to learn in this Video is where to get data to understand What's going on in your local housing Maret market and I also want you as the Viewer to understand that we really Can't lean on just one data provider you Guys honestly this is great news Obviously we need a couple more weeks of This type of decline for it to create a Trend but regardless it's happening Because we have a record high price cuts For one going on right now fore record For this time of year we have a record High new brand new record high mortgage Payments we have inventory shooting up
With new listings and active list and we Have a fouryear low for this time of Year with demand so we have all these Price pressures and we have the entire Foundation of the housing market built On Free Money free and cheap money and Fear and so you guys hopefully hopefully This is the start this is the week that We start seeing median sales price Finally kick beyond a shadow of Doubt Seasonality as always this will be Linked in my description the name of red Fins over overly optimistic article is Housing market update for the first time In nearly two years there's no major Metro where home prices are falling and That's what we get if we listen to only Redin and I could tell you guys being a Resident in Texas being a realtor in Texas home prices are definitely falling Especially when we look at new homes but Not just new homes existing homes as Well now listen to their opening Paragraph here inventory is below Typical April levels driving home prices Up now the thing that's interesting About that guys is it's actually a Four-year high so you know typical lows Well yeah maybe true pre pandemic I Would agree but they're not recognizing That over the last four years it's the Record high it's been for this time of Year now they go on continually Rising Mortgage rates are further eroding
Affordability and this week's fed Meeting confirmed that mortgage rates Are likely to Hold Steady to the Foreseeable future future now the last Bit of optimism that I'm going to read In the article goes even though housing Cost shouldn't climb much more they will Remain elevated for the foreseeable Future which could push more buyers away But they go on to say this but for Serious House Hunters who can afford Today's mortgage rates and find a home They love jumping in now isn't a bad Idea given the fact inventory is low and Costs aren't dropping anytime soon so Once again redin fails to acknowledge an Incoming recession yield curve Inversions deficit spending full-time Job growth loss and that being replaced By seasonal jobs and government jobs They're not recognizing or giving any Type of cautious opinion to the viewers And here's the thing you guys I agree With a lot of what they're saying and That the housing market over the next Probably decade or half a decade is Going to be incredibly toxic the pendum Is now swinging the other way it's going To be years and years and years before We get back to a balanced Market what's Coming up I believe is the buyer Market We're getting out of the sellers market And again the pendulum is swinging for The sheer fact that Americans they can't
Afford to buy a house and remember There's forced selling every single year And what's happening now with it Breaking seasonality in may actually not Even May if median sales price continues To decline the decline will have start Started at the end of April let's jump Back into the article taking a look at This week's leading indicators daily Average 30-year fixed rate mortgages as Of the date of this article was sitting At 7.41% as of the date of this recording They're slightly lower now the weekly Average was 7.17% and I want you guys to pay Attention that that is up from 6.43% last year so I believe we're going To start seeing a again increased median Sales price decline because remember This time last year there was a ton of Optimism that came back to the housing Market because of one of the primary Reasons Bank term funding program saved The banks guys remember the bank run so The start of the last year everyone was Afraid but as the year went on that fear Disappeared and shifted to the fear of Missing out regardless this goes on Mortgage purchase applications are down 14% year-over-year This is crushing mortgage companies Regional Banks of all sizes and colors Redin home buying demand is also down 9%
Google searches for homes for sale is Also down year-over-year a whopping 14% Now when we pull up mortgage purchase Applications from mortgage News Daily Understand the interest rate is which an Orange the actual purchase applications Is on top looking at Composite Index now Week over week guys that is down going From 202.000 dropping to 196.7 you can see again it's not a good Thing when we look at the five-year Mark At mortgage purchase applications you Guys can really kind of understand how Much in the gutter demand is actually in Right now we have a massive Affordability problem it the housing Market is not strong enough to sustain This level of affordability because once Again I say America quite simply cannot Afford to buy houses you maybe the hyper Rich and institutional investors can but Certainly normal Americans cannot now we See a similar Trend when accessing Mortgage News Daily existing home sales Now this is not updated yet for March This has gone to February at a Seasonally adjusted 3.9 million units Now that's seasonally adjusted more than Likely and this is what I anticipated With Jason Walter I thought we were Going to be ending the year around three And a half million because again the Unaffordability is crippling us if you Go back 1990s how is it you guys that
Demand is essentially worse than the GFC How is that possible from both an Existing home sales standpoint and when We look here from a mortgage purchase Application standpoint it was busier During the GFC and we had a complete Industry U-Haul back then I was a loan Officer it was called The Dodd Frank Wall Street reform and consumer Protection act it restricted Lending Almost stopped it so for me going Through that it's shocking that business Is even slower because again we have More people as well we have more houses We have more people how is business Slower than the GFC incredible all right Now taking a look at this week's winners And this week's losers remember this is Macro data even though it's giving Cities it's still macro data if you want Micro Data you got to go into the Subdivision you have to review something Called comps I look at comps going all The way back to 2020 personally I use 2021 average sales price and median Sales price to kind of gauge whether or Not myself or my clients can get a good Deal and whether or not wedge exists you Have to go hyper local whatever cycle We're in whether it's crashing or not You still have to understand local Trends now taking a look at the winners Losing a lot of ground this week I hope You guys noticed that still sitting High
At 22% year-over-year growth in Anaheim California and I will note it is Extremely unaffordable there and there's Almost no new construction now Detroit's At number two super surprising maybe It's all the speculation maybe it's all Of the investor owned houses I don't Know but regardless the data is saying That Detroit is up year-over-year 14.9% followed by number three lost a Lot of steam which is San Jose sitting At 13.6 you guys I think we were in what We were in the mid 20s recently here now Number four is West Palm Beach sitting At 13.4 followed by number five new Bronswick New Jersey at 12.8 now it also Is noting there are no declines in any Metro areas and again that's why I'm Saying you really have to go hyper local Subdivision analysis as consumers you Need access to something called MLS Which is multiple listing service now Let's start visualizing this data and Before I get tooo far I kind of want to Stop at median sales price and show you Guys as viewers what's going on with red Fin what am I mean they're manipulating Graphs I want to point out again a lot Of people get this confused first of all Median sales price is up year-over-year 4.8% now a lot of people like Chavis You're looking at the wrong stuff this Is a year-over-year comparison now this Graph you guys just to be Crystal Clear
Compares many things when we look at Year-over-year it's comparing the blue Line from the orange line right there That is the year-over-year growth now What what I like to watch is the week Over week which is these points right Here four week rolling average so we can See the most recent macro data possible Now anyone can tell you right now that Those dots right there and I'll put it Right above my picture is showing an Upward trajectory okay the fact is you Guys median sales price went down over $500 week to week and it does not Reflect it in these charts and that's The point I was trying to make with how Important it is to have access to the Multiple listing service we cannot trust The bias of these data providers we see That right here beyond a shadow of doubt This has been going on for years and to Prove that to you let me show you the Week before is median sales price here's The median sales price right here 383,000 this week's went down you guys By over $500 so it went down to $ 383,899 if you're clearly in my opinion At least you're clearly manipulating the Trajectory of these charts to a more Bullish favor how can we trust that red Fin regardless you guys let's go back Into the data median sales price is up Year-over-year but again like I said it Has gone down week over week now I want
To point out that in 2022 the decline Started right here okay so that was in June okay that was in June roughly now Last year in 2023 the decline decline Started here which was July so if in Fact the decline is starting right now The decline will have Happened okay in April now what do we Need to see we need to see continuous Trends of downward trajectory for median Sales price and we need to maintain Higher elevated interest rates now when We look here at median asking price this Is just so abnormal this I believe Really shows that rich you know more of The richer or higher-end housing owners Are still playing ball there's less People that are purchasing right now at The smaller end like 300 $400,000 houses And there's more million dooll houses Being sold and that's goes to show how Strong those Trends are being that Median sales price still went down so Again you know it's not showing it here But median sales price went down in April despite more million dooll houses Selling I think it's important to Acknowledge that Trend hopefully that is A trend right but regardless I think we See that in this as well because this is Just absolutely incredibly insane this Is breaking seasonality as well median Asking prices shouldn't be going up when Price cuts are absolutely surging as
Well so we have median asking price Skyrocketing at the same time that price Cuts are Skyrocketing therefore what we see again What we see here is more expensive Houses coming to the market that have a Higher asking Price at least that's what I think we Also have a brand new record high Mortgage payment home buying houses Payments are up almost 15% year-over-year and unaffordability Was horrible in 2023 it's even worse This year you guys year-over-year is From here to here 15% is insane at a new Mortgage payment of $2,890 but just three years ago in 2021 We were all the way down here at Mortgage payments under $1,750 again this housing market is Going to take years and years to heal And you really need to understand Accessing subdivision data you have to Look at the comps you guys now taking a Look at demand pinning sales is also Down 3% year-over-year again you guys I Like looking at the week-over-week data It is bias I understand that we can't Trust it but it's we're at the mercy of It at least it's updated week over week So again pinning cells down 3.4% this is Absolutely wrecking the industry right Now we have a recession in the housing Market that's very clear if you're a
Professional in it take a look at this Trend you guys this is actually this is Actually incredible new listings of Homes is also up 15% year-over-year look At the trajectory the trajectory is Skyrocketing once again I was a little Bit worried right around here but it Appears you know like every season that Was just seasonality from Easter we saw That happening here here and here as Well looks like we were accurate there Because new listings is skyrocketing at 10,065 new listings that's spectacular Also very very beautiful active listings For home for sale is also up double Digits year-over-year at 12% I wanted it to be higher than that It's still up that's good you guys again It was kind of plateauing here so we're Getting a little bit more trory once Again year-over-year and we want to see It come up right around here at 900,000 To a million active listings on the Market like we saw in 2022 when we Started having price Discovery that's Why I circled it right there so again 900,000 to a million depending on your Metro area Texas and Florida already has Inventory that is exceeding pre pandemic Looks like the lag effects of the Interest rates going up is finally Starting to show in the data as Supply Is Sky rocketing only at 3.4 months we Need four to five sustain for Price
Discovery for a crashing housing market Six six makes it a technical buyers Market but buyers right now obviously Are crushed we don't have the same Buyers as we had in 2019 2019 we had Doubled the savings rate we had income Skyrocketing we had interest rates that Were half of what it was right now uh we Had transactions at 5 to six million in Sales and we sustained at 1 million to 1 2 million so we don't need that right Now for Price Discovery but look at the Trajectory that is a massive trajectory Upward in the middle of spring home Buying season thank you Federal Reserve For not making another bank term funding Program that bank term funding program Last year really kicked the can down the Road in the housing market that topped With there was still a bunch of excess Savings apparently I mean this trend is Absolutely crazy guys think about this Right now we're at 6.2% of listings that Had price Cuts look at this trajectory We had a similar pattern happen right Here in 2022 that pattern led to Sentiment and it led to people like oh My gosh maybe the housing market is Unstable and prices started to crash we Hit inventory slightly under a million And prices started going down but that Trajectory was important now again we Are ahead of schedule in 2022 we were Right here when that started right now
We were at here and the Gap is massive So you know again explain to me how Could price Cuts be surging at record Levels but yet median asking price is Skyrocketing suspicious and deceiving And misleading unfortunately you guys This graph got cut off but redin home Buying demand is also down a whopping 9% Year-over-year that is also a 4-year Record high for this time time of year Now again the question was is as Consumers how do you access local data And the answer was by accessing multiple Listing service MLS now unfortunately You usually have to be a realtor so if You need the data a lot of times you Have to learn where to find a great Realtor and hopefully meet them now if You are a realtor then you can access MLS now again let me show you some of The strategies just real quick that I Use all right guys so here's what MLS or Multiple listing service looks like for The Houston area now we can kind of zoom In to whatever area we're interested in Purchasing I've been showing you guys a Lot of Kingwood so you can see this is Kingwood these homes are listed for sale They're listed for sale everywhere but As we zoom in here you can kind of see These subdivisions so each of these Little things are subdivisions now let Me show you what I do with the Subdivisions so I'll do something like
This I'll make a screenshot of the area Maybe using Google Maps and I'll kind of Outline the subdivis like that now as a Realtor I'm going in I'm accessing those Comps and I'm finding out what the Average and median sales price is per Square foot for the last year or for 2021 2022 or 2023 but a general good Idea to start is over the last year so Let me show you what that looks like Something like this so now over the last Year I can go into certain subdivisions Like for example Kings Manor and I Already knowing King's Manor the average Average home over the last year sold for $138 per square foot and so when I go Back over here and I go to Kings Manor We have Kings Manor right here I can Look at these houses and I already know 138 a square foot so I pull up this one And I can show you guys right now that This is being listed for $103 a square foot which basically means That this is you know hypothetically Listed for $30 a square foot under Market value in other words you guys we Got to go hyper local regardless of the Cycles that we're in in the housing Market and in the future I hope to give You guys a free subdivision analysis Form in certain States you can use Zillow not in all states but in certain Ones if you want me to make that form Hit me with a Bonkers below and other
Than that I really hope you guys got Some value insights and perspective and If you're out there investing in real Estate you guys already know I wish you Luck and I hope you win
