[Music] It's a good World good World who cares that inventory is going Up who cares that interest rates and Unaffordability is going up who cares That demand is going down because we Need to continue to spend and here's the Term of the Year spend to the end Welcome back to real estate mindset Today's video is going to be absolutely Bonk now the data is in and the first Thing I want to say is remember when we Go over these reports from redin even When you hone into your local metro area It's still macro data if you guys really Want to dig into your local housing Market because remember all of the stats Are about local housing markets you Really got to dig into subdivision and Subdivision review now I understand not All homes are in a subdivision but most Homes are and that's generally the way Define whether or not you're getting a Good deal and what's going on with the Trends and also remember this the Information we're going over today is Regarding existing home sales it is not New homes okay because new homes is an Entirely different video an entirely Different world right now because new Homes are plummeting in prices and Supply is absolutely skyrocketing as Well and so today we're going to go into
A wealth of data we're going to look at Red Fin's weekly housing market update As well as other things things like Demand just to gauge where we're at in The housing market this week and it's Going to be interesting to see what the Elevated interest rates are going to Start showing in the trends now that Everything is greatly elevated and do me A favor if you guys can if you learn Something hit like on the video Subscribe shoot me a comment below and Also if you have any intel and any Insights comment below a lot of people Read those comments don't forget to Share your metro area but again if you Learn something hit like other than that Shoot me a Bonkers below now the name of This week's redin housing market update Is monthly payments set new record and Buyers cost will likely stay high on Inflation news and you guys we have some Absolutely insane Trends going on right Now I mean wait until you start reading This I mean not only are housing Payments at an alltime record median Sales price is about to hit a new record Too because we haven't hit a new uh Record since 2022 FYI a lot of people Have said including Dave Ramsey that we Have a new record with median sales Price that is false but let's read the First paragraph the median monthly US Housing payment hit an all-time high of
$2,747 during the four weeks ending April 7th now that is up 11% from a year Earlier housing payments are soaring Because home prices and mortgage rates Are high the median home sales price is $378,000 that is up 4.5% year-over-year and listen to this This is just shy about $5,000 from the record high that was hit During June 2022 that's crazy that's why I say people are spending to the end and Also this could be that higher pric Houses are the only ones that are being Listed because there is no affordable Housing so it could be a combo the Average 30-year fixed rate according to This article is 6.82% below the near 8% Hit in October but still more than Double pandemic era lows all right now Let's read their last little generally Optimistic little paragraph from their Agents that are in the field so this is Your boots on the ground little Paragraph statement here for home buyers The latest CPI report means morgage Rates will stay higher for longer I Wonder have we heard that before I is This a big surpris have you guys ever Heard the term higher for longer or is This the first time you've watched this Channel I mean seriously why are they Anyways okay higher for longer because It makes the FED unlikely to cut Interest rates in the next few months
Housing costs are likely to continue Going down for the near future but Persistently High mortgage rates and Rising Supply could cool home price Growth by the end of the year taking Some pressures off cost H interesting I mean red Fin's going to Be optimistic you know do your thing red Fin thank you for the data and obviously Guys this is this not the full picture What we really need is the public in my Opinion anyways to have access to the MLS if the public had access to the MLS I could train them how to be beast mode Buyers also sellers but primarily buyers We need people to understand how to use The data not the emotions regardless the Leading indicator starting with interest Rates now they have the daily interest r Sitting at 7.34% that's up from 6.52% year-over-year so right now Interest rates are way higher this is The type of restriction we needed during 2023 but remember think back in time This time last year the bank term Funding program was introduced basically About a month prior and that basically Allowed liquidity in the banking sector As those Bank runs started you guys Remember the bank runs last time we had You guys remember that similar to The Great Depression Bank runs right very Interesting stuff but regardless you
Guys we're sitting at 7.34% now from the date of the recording Of this video interest rates are sitting At actually 7.37% I want you guys to also take note Here that FHA FHA is sitting at 6.75% That is lower than 15-year conventional Mortgages isn't that surprising to you Guys also I want you to remember Generally you can generally you can get A better deal shopping a broker versus a Direct lender now when we look at things Like demand starting with mortgage Purchase applications this is down a Whopping 23% year-over-year and we were Already at his like 1990 lows so we're Starting off 2024 even though it's spent To the end at least we're starting off With sales in the gutter and getting Even worse than last year and 23% is Substantial again being how bad it was Last year year now it's also saying red From home buying demand is down 6% Year-over-year as well take a look at This data from mortgage News Daily this Is really painting the picture of how Low mortgage purchase applications are Right now the index is about 195 the Last time we had 195 I mean we haven't I Have to actually Max this chart out and Go all the way back to geez you guys I Mean look at this I mean what is this January 24th 1996 and it's getting worse so demand
Absolutely in the gutter right now now We also see that when looking at Existing home sales so to the Bulls you Can't say the housing market is strong We know that we need more affordable Housing yes we also know that there's 15 Million vacant homes we know all of These things but regardless a lot of People aren't buying there's still a lot Of people buying that's not good but Look at this guys we're sitting at right Now 3.9 million okay so we're under 4 Million last time we were under 4 Million was during the GFC right about Here in August of 2010 now prior to that We had to go back again to the 1990s so the fact that interest rates Have remained elevated going into spring Is a great thing for the housing market And so long as we can stay elevated in The situation this is exactly what we Want now I'm going to tell you guys what We don't want we don't want some Black Swan to come in and the FED to have have To cut interest rates before we have a Proper reset and rather and I hate to Say this unemployment if they lower Rates before unemployment or before some Type of event happens it may all of this May be for nothing but even so okay even If this was all for Nothing 90% of Americans still can't Afford the house and therefore things Are still not sustainable anyways let's
Go back into the info all right y so Take a look at this week's winners and Losers number one an usual suspect Anaheim now Anaheim sitting at an Increase year-over-year of 22% followed By West Palm Beach another usual suspect Massive year-over-year quote unquote Growth right there at 17.4% Pittsburgh at 15% San Jose at 13.9 New Brunswick at 13.9 as well with only One metro area which is San Antonio Sitting on the year-over-year price Decline list I mean Texas is always in I Mean do you guys see why I for me being In Texas Houston Texas this is so easy For me to see but regardless you guys San Antonio is down 1.7% year-over-year I also want to bring This up the fact that we didn't hit a New peak in median sales price last year Okay a lot of people like oh the hous Market rebounded we're all good yes There was a rebound I think it was more Of a dead cat bounce and it was a beast But we still didn't hit a new record the Record was essentially in May of 2022 we Were sitting at 400 right here 432,500townhouse We still didn't hit a new Peak okay so You could still argue that there's still No equity growth because it takes money To sell your house roughly 8% right we Get that as America we know that right We get that by now it cost money to sell
Your house I mean there's lawsuits about This everyone knows this by now comment Below please give me a Bonkers as well If you haven't already but comment below Okay what are your thoughts on all this So far now before I get into the charts Take a look at this guys this is new Listings now we want to keep our eye on New listings because we need inventory In fact fact I've been saying we need 900 to a million active units sustained Right so for a period of time for prices To start going down again at least That's my hypothesis based on the last Three years and the price declined During that time now take a look at the New listings this is insane although San Jose is blowing up apparently in median Sales price it's the new listings are Freaking Exploding guys 56.8% year year wow okay That's that's a so we should start Seeing prices like flatten out or at Least go down in San Jose right look Look at the inventory now Sacramento is Also on that list at 39% Austin you guys Austin is going to be back on the Year-over-year price decline list the New listing surge in Austin 30.7% followed by Jacksonville Florida At 30.5 and Oakland California at 30.4 Keep your eyes on Austin and San Jose I Mean seriously guys it's is this data Not absolutely wild yall see what I'm
Saying spend to the end and yes yes I am Talking to you 20 yearold Travis that Lost everything during the GFC spent to The end that's exactly what you did it Hurt it hurt to say that hurt to say That let's move on to data visualization All right guys so starting with median Sales price this is this is bananas now Remember you guys we still didn't hit This record here okay so this is the Record okay this record was from 2022 so year over year over year we Still haven't hit that new record Bulls Okay now again I I constantly say this Some people could still find a good deal In this market you got to use data you Got to have patience all these things I Have a you know we discussed this all The time on Discord but regardless you Guys look at the trajectory week over Week this trajectory is nutso now again This is demonstrating there are still People purchasing but it also can be the Fact that we just don't have lower and Houses on the market they get scooped up Before the more expensive houses now I Don't know that for sure I'd have to dig In more but regardless this son of a gun Is skyrocketing in the face of interest Rates being in the seven perents again And that's why I'm saying we need more Active units around 900 to a million now Remember this in 2022 this period that I'm circling we had massive price
Decline that exceeded the GFC Okay during this period of time we had Roughly 900k active units so that's why I'm Saying it will be interesting to see if We can get to that amount again but Unlike 2023 sustain it okay that's what I'm Saying we've already seen what happens When we don't sustain it the market Rebounded obviously I don't think that Can go on forever because of the Unaffordability but nevertheless median Sales pric is up 4. 5% and that is year Over year now here's why I think it Could be less affordable houses on the Market and more expensive houses on the Market because median asking price is Skyrocketed week over week and remember This data we're looking at is week over Week data but we can also compare year Over year year over year over year over Year but the trajectory of these lines Is all week over week some people don't Get that still it's crazy to me but look At that trajectory and that's why I'm Thinking like maybe it's it's the more Expensive houses are being listed and The less affordable ones are just not Being listed either way that is an Alarming trajectory and it doesn't make Sense and I'll show you that as we move Along here but that is up 6.5% year-over-year that's insane now
Take a look at this doozy we hit a new Record high unfortunately and actually This is fortunately I think that the Market needs this because the market Needs to calm down even though it's all The same everything record low there's Still again there's still some people Buying and I'm talking to those people But home buying housing payments right Now year-over-year which is here to here Guys it was already so unaffordable last Year so unaffordable last year but Year-over-year is even higher even Higher by 11.3% we basically need home prices to Go down about 60% okay I think we all or We need to make 40% more in income or Rates need to be 2% and and that's why I'm saying this Whole Foundation is not going to last It's built on emotion it's not it's Built on emotion you guys and a lack of Supply a manipulated really synthetic Lack of Supply it was manipulated Situation okay it's artificial lack of Supply because of the lockdown and the Money printing but regardless Unaffordability is King right now and Look at again we look at three years ago We look at three years ago look at that I you know from here to here okay that's Insane it was about $1600 Okay so three Years ago we're about down here about $1,600 it's $100 more every single month
That's take-home money that's not gross Okay your gross income is before taxes That's out of your net income this is Harsh this is Harsh right here that's What I'm saying hold up okay and if you Are GNA buy for the love of God please Use some fundamentals to survive through A recession that we haven't even started Although when you look at deficit Spending we've been in a recession since About 2020 I won't go there let's move On now here's a data set where I think We're finally starting to see those 7% Interest rates shock the market Basically the market hitting the wall That's impending sales okay so again Another demand Matrix and look at the Trajectory look at that it's like it hit A brick wall and is now going down now Unlike some of the stuff that we just Went over this is absolutely great news Why because this is the opposite of Seasonality taking over this trend Remember guys we are going in and now in Spring home buying season so generally This time of year pending sales go up They don't go down but that's exactly What you see here and that's why and it Was a little bit abrupt you can see that And that's why I'm saying I think we are Seeing the 7% interest rate start to Rattle the market but obviously this is All lagging data we need more time to Tell but again I mean 7% rates the home
Price almost the new record I mean come On obviously the market hit a brick wall And and its name is first name interest Rates last name home price that's why There's unaffordability just saying Let's move on here's new listings also Very very good information you guys new Listings 14% year-over-year this is good This means that it is working still slow I know everyone's like my gosh this is Slow everything's taking so much time But it does take time unfortunately the Housing market is not the stock market So we're up 14.1% but we're still under 2022 and 2021 just wanted to make that point We're so we're headed in the right Direction but don't forget there's still That golden handcuff effect so this is Great growth and meanwhile understand we Still have that golden handcuff effect So when those rates do go down that will Be met depending on how they go down and The circumstances at which they do drop Rates depending on all that we will have More inventory from low rates because There's a net difference which means not Everyone that sells their house buys a New one the last report I read was a 30% Net difference this is also some great News right here this is active listings Of homes for sale we are up 8% y'all Year-over-year and this is a fouryear High for this time of year so this is
Actually really really good news up Eight% year-over-year again sitting at 8819 so we're at 819,000 again this is Where I think we need to be so we need To be right over here because during This period right here okay is when we Had Prices go down and go down faster than Normal seasonality and faster than the GFC before anyone starts playing the Seasonality card I've already looked at All that info okay we need more Inventory bottom line now I don't like It kind of balanced out right now what We want to see is we want to see the Same thing that happened in 2022 from This time to this time where active Units Skyrocketed okay so the fact during the Last two weeks it's been a plateau That's not something that we want to Look at now but now look at months of Supply okay months of Supply we're Sitting at 3.2 months everyone should Know by now we need about 6 months for The market to technically consider a Buyer Market I think we just need to Sustain four to five months just sustain That and we'll have our price Discovery Regardless you guys it has plateaued Versus going down this is good but again We want it to go up normally it's going To start going up right around July okay So if it can go up before then that's a
Win for the housing market in my opinion This is also another data set where I See the housing market hit a brick wall From the interest rates pending sales Under contract in two weeks so that's 43% of pending sales okay which means Pretty much demand now again look at the Trajectory it's like it hit a brick wall Right and normally again this time of Year normally we're in spring right Normally it goes up so the fact that It's going the opposite trajectory Should tell us this is good these are Great things we just need to hold right Now we need to hold where we're at and These Trends should continue to do the Opposite of normal seasonality now Another lagging set of data you guys 28% Of homes sold above final list price um You know that's almost a fouryear low we Still want this under 2023 we're kind of Right at it you kind of can see that Right there but again we want this down We want things to be on the market for Longer because the longer they sit on The market generally the more likely it Is for sellers to start cutting the Prices on their homes here's another Great set of data you guys again Opposite of normal seasonality which the Price is going up like that doesn't make Sense to me because the price drops and Price cuts are exploding the opposite of Normal seasonal Trends you guys normally
We don't have this type of price Cuts We're sitting way way up here at 5. 8% Again we don't usually have this type of Price Cuts until we're all the way over Here going into fall and winter so thank God the interest rates are high right Now in the 7% because we can see it Affecting the data now we need a hold This though we don't want to be in s% For like two weeks and then go back to Six perents we need to stay here that's My point this is great as long as we Stay here we need to get through spring And summer home home buying season also Shows here you guys redin home buying Demand is down so again great news down 6% you can see that here year over year But also you know this is a fouryear low For this time of year so another set of Data that we like but again what do we Not like we don't like waiting we don't Like being patient but that's exactly What we should be doing because we don't Want to be like the young Travis that Lost everything that spent to the end we Want to save right now we want to Re-budget if I could talk to my old self First of all I'd tell a lot of things to My old self but one of those things Would be just re-budget re-budget change Your spending habits six months before You lost everything and I would be a Completely different man I'd be a Millionaire right now you guys but I
Didn't I spend to the end and I lost Everything and it is what it is I don't Want that to happen to you that's all I'm saying do me a favor again if you Learned anything give me a like don't Forget shoot me a Bonker shoot me some Intel and if you're out there investing In real estate you you guys already know I wish you luck and I hope you win
