Welcome back despite a small dip in Mortgage rates last week applications For Home Loans to buy houses decrease And are now down a whopping 50% compared To preco levels in today's video I'll Share some more leading indications of Home buy demand and also our US housing Market including the number of real Estate showings housing inventory Changes and much much more and by the Way if you guys are new here I invite You to subscribe this Channel right now Because I post frequent housing market Updates so you guys can be more informed About whether to buy or sell a house Right now also if you guys get any value Out of this video whatsoever then please Hit the like button I great appreciate That of course I appreciate you and Let's begin today's video let's first Talk about this report that's actually All over the news right now regarding Application numbers uh decreasing Despite a dip in rates last week uh this Is according to the MBA just posted Today which is March 27th can't believe It's almost April anyways applications For Home Loans um to buy houses and also For refi Fell 7% compared to the previous week And this report covers the week ended March 22nd so let's have a look at refi So refi decreased by 2% from last week And are down 9% from a year ago of
Course it makes sense we're seeing a Lack of refinances right now due to 7% Rates what I'm more focused on which I Mention every week here is their Seasonly adjusted purchase Index this is An index which measures the amount of People who are submitting loan Applications to buy houses this is a Future look at uh future home sales in The coming months so that actually Decreased by. 2% from one week ago but It's down by 16% on a year- ofe basis Let's take a look at investing.com Because the reading for their purchase Index was at4 5.7 a slight decrease Compared to the previous week and it Says here this has proven to be a Reliable indicator of impending or Future home sales so looking at this Chart right here this marks the second Consecutive month of decreases of home Loan applications also compar this to The previous years you can see here in 2021 2022 a high share of people um Submitting loan applications has been Decreasing more or less ever since then On top of that comparing this last week Compared to the same week of 2019 we're down by about 47% so overall applications at very very Low levels and this of course implies We'll see a low level of existing home Sales in the coming months as well let's
Get back to the NBA support here According to Joel Khan who's the NBA's Vice president and deputy chief Economist he stated the following Uh mortgage application activity was Muted last week despite slightly lower Mortgage rates the 30-year fixed rate Edged lower to 6.93% but was not enough to stimulate Borrower demand so let's look at Daily Rates U the rate at 6.93% was the weekly rate according to The MBA last week but as of uh today the Daily rate according to the uh mortgage News Daily is at 6.91% unchanged compared to Tuesday also For a jumbo loan 7.3% FHA and VA loans is around 6.4% so looking at the average 30-year Fix um it is below um the peak we had Back in October at around 8% but still Around 37 basis points higher than it Was one year ago when the average daily Rate was at 6.54% by the way again that's for people With exceptional credit putting at least 25% down to buy house the average rates On a national level also looking at Investopedia.com as of today the average Rate according to them is at 7.19% and they actually look at um or They actually survey uh 200 of the Biggest lenders on a national level and Looking at what is your average um uh
Rate um based on a loan to value ratio Of 80% % in other words you're buying a House you're putting down 20% to buy That house a loan to value ratio at 80% Also they're looking at a FICO score With a wider range in the range of 700 To 760 whereas the mortgage news daily As well as other websites look at a FICO Score well above that and that's why They're looking at the average rate um Much higher compared to uh other Websites at 7.19% right now one thing You guys should keep in mind as well is That the rate you're going to get quoted Can vary quite a bit depending on your Credit score so looking at uh rates as Of uh yesterday this is just Googling Rates um according to google here um Putting 20% down in the FICO score in The range of 800 plus you're looking at An average rate at around 6.99% but if we were to decrease this to 700 to 719 it increased to nearly 7.5% then if we go down to 640 to 659 it Increases to nearly 88.1% so the fluctuations can vary Greatly in fact by about a point or 1 Percentage Point depending on your Credit score in any case let's get back To the MBA support it says purchase Applications were essentially unchange As home buyers continue to hold out for Lower rates and more listings to hit the Market my advice for you guys if you
Guys are looking to buy a house do not Wait for rates to decrease if Rate rates Were decrease from 7 to 6% what do you Guys think is going to happen home Buying demand it's going to increase Greatly you're going to seeing a lot More competition and um in my opinion a Decrease in rates is going to cause more Demand not a huge increase in Supply in Other words a bigger increase in demand Compared to the increase in Supply Because a lot of people have this lock In effect so I would urge you guys to if You guys are looking to buy a house buy A house when it's right for you and um It's probably better to look at um Houses when you have more listings Available because that actually limits Competition for each house and of course If we have the opposite in which rates Decrease greatly you're just going to See demand uh increase as well so um I Just got want to preface that because I Think there's a lot of people thinking That if rat were to decrease we're going To see a huge increase in Supply Uh but that's not really taking in Consideration the huge increase in Demand as well and in my personal Opinion a decrease in rates we'll see a Higher amount of home buyers compared to Home Sellers and that's because if rates Decrease to 6% um I don't really think a Lot of people are going to be um listing
Their house for sale and getting rid of Their three and 4% rates but for home Buyers out there who had rates at 8% uh Just back in October last year uh to Decrease at 6% that's a very big change In your purchasing power and also a big Decrease in your average monthly hous Housing payment as well now speaking of Housing inventory I want to share a new Report really quickly with you guys um This is according to um resi club uh They have you know topnotch uh articles Regarding what's happening right now With the US housing market it was Founded by uh Lance Lambert actually Called him several months ago right when He um started this company they have a Lot of Analytics regarding what's Happening uh with the US healthy Market Which I found to be very useful not a Pay promotion uh but a really good Website if you guys want to check them Out um he reported um just um on March Uh 13th about two weeks ago it says Active listings are up by 45.8% in Florida on a year-year basis Active listings in Nevada though are Down by 32% uh if you guys follow the channel I Always talk about how real estate is Local and you see this right here uh it Also it says inventory data matters Quite a bit if active listings begin to Rise quickly in theory it can signal a
Weakening Market that's exactly what Happened in 2022 where inventory doubled In less than 6 months that's one of the Uh main reasons why prices fell in the Second half of 2022 in contrast if active listings in Other words housing inventory Begin to Fall quickly in theory it can signal a Strengthening housing market so they Actually reported this right here five States in which active listings are up The most compared to one year ago Florida Le the nation up by nearly 46% after that we have Mississippi Louisiana Alabama and Arkansas all up by More than 20% in contrast the five States in which inventory levels are Down the most uh are actually in Nevada Down 30 2% leading the nation by far After that we have Illinois New Jersey Idaho and Rhode Island and that by the Way is a change of inventory levels from February 2023 through February uh this Year he also says uh generally speaking Housing markets were inventory or active Listings has returned to pre pandemic Levels have experienced weaker home Price growth or outright decre decreases Over the past 20 months in contrast Housing markets where inventory remains Far below pre- pandemic levels um Experience stronger home price growth I 100% agree with them regarding this Because in areas where inventories
Skyrocketing of course that limits home Price growth as more home sellers have To compete against each other and in Contrast if inventory is decreasing big Time uh that supports home prices all Right going back to the mba's report Really quickly here um regarding the Amount of people submitting loan Applications um overall whether it's Purchases or refi approximately um 30.8% of people doing that are actually Refinancing still which is absolutely Crazy right when rates around 7% why are 31% of people actually doing a refi in My personal opinion it's probably due to The fact that we're seeing more people Um doing refi and getting cash out of Their houses to do a remodel or to pay For everyday living expenses also the Adjustable rate uh mortgage share or arm Share of activity uh decreased to 7% of Total applications I believe the 24mon High approximately was around 12% the Low was around 3% so right in the middle Of that at 7% of applications are doing An arm okay let's change years uh Slightly here and look at some more Early indications of home buying demand In our US housing market uh one report I Want to share with you guys is from Showingtime.com um they basically look At the total number of real estate Showings in North America compared to The first week each and every year uh
Since 2020 I've been sharing this report For you guys for what four years now Anyways uh for the week ended uh March 26 as of yesterday uh the number of real Estate showings compared to the first Week this year Rose by 26.1% at this time last year it Increased by 20.7% compared to the first week last Year year something I found to be Interesting is that the number of real Estate showings um overall have been Decreasing ever since uh midm March this Year which is much different compared to Previous years um because in what is This 2021 22 and 23 uh the number of Real estate showings in March were Increasing but this year for whatever Reason it's actually decreasing actually Getting very close to the changes we saw Back in uh 2021 as well and lastly let's Have a look at the number of people who Are searching for homes for sale on Google uh a Lucy indication of Home buy Demand how many people are actually Searching on Google for houses actually For sale uh that Index right now is at 74 one year ago it was at 89 this means That there's approximately 177% um less interest in searching for Houses for sale compared to 12 months Ago and with that said let me summarize Today's video really quickly for you Guys because there was a of course a lot
Of information there so overall Applications to buy houses uh fell by 16% from one year ago on top of that Down by 47% compared to the same week of 2019 in Another words um home buying activity Very very low compared to 2019 on top of That average daily rates as of today According to the uh mortgage News Daily Is at 6.91% um still relatively high levels of Interest rates especially when you count For the fact that home prices have Increased by about 5% on a year-year Basis for existing houses on top of that We're seeing um uh rates fluctuate quite A bit depending on the FICO score and We're seeing also uh inventory levels Rising big time in Florida and also Decreasing big time in Nevada real Estate is local also real estate Showings um have been trickling down for The past couple of weeks I'll definitely Keep you posted regarding that and also We're seeing fewer people searching for Homes for sale on Google so I would say Overall home buying demand is still very Very low and uh it's going to be really Interesting to see what happens for the Remainder of the Year especially as we Enter we're basically kind of in the Spring home Bine season but especially When we get into April and May and I'll Definitely keep posted with lest
Developments with that said I appreciate You for watching today's video like And Subscribe I'll see you next [Music] [Music] Video
