There's some very interesting Dynamics Happening right now in the US housing Market so for example based on my own Analysis of realor.com data the number Of price reductions or the change in the Number of price reductions post the Biggest increase in about one year on Top of that asking prices actually Increased last week yet House's Inventory is still piling up up by about 30% on a year Vie basis I have a lot to Share in today's video so let's go ahead And dive right in this is a a base on Report that was announced from Realtor.com on April 25th and just like My previous videos I didn't even read it Because I'm a nerd instead go to Realtor.com Researchdata and click on that link Right there which more or less takes you To this information asking prices Inventory new listings days in the Market and also uh price reductions as Well so let's go and Dive Right In Because I have lot to share and of Course if you guys get any value out of This video then hit the like button and Also consider subscribing um the most Recent uh uh Trends we have from them is On April 20th it's been about one month Since I made this video for you guys but I'm going to provide my own analysis of Their data and also provide a summary And some um a summary of what happened
Over the past week or so regarding U the Housing market in the US so for the week Ended April uh uh 20th asking prices or The meeting asking price on a national Level actually decreased by 1.1% let me just zoom in here for you Guys and that by the way is the biggest Year decrease on record um realtor com's Data goes back to uh July of 2017 when Looking at weekly data so that decrease Of 1.1% may not sound like a lot but is A big decrease we've had um since uh Their data since they began tracking Data in July of 2017 also as a note Below there it's possible that more Buyers are waiting for prices Andor Rates to decrease before they buy a House and that's contributing to a low Level of close home sales and because of This more homeowners are actually Deciding to list their houses for a Lower price now uh due to this decrease In demand also redin posted last week on Thursday St that we have all-time record Highs for home prices based on the US Median home sale price but also housing Affordability at record lows as well due To due to the rapid rise in prices and Of course um rates as well all right Let's change here a little bit and talk About um housing inventory and then We'll talk about new listings so housing Inventory um Rose by 31.7% last week compared to the same
Time frame in 2023 all these fig figures here are the Percent changes from the same time frame One year ago uh that increase of 31.7% is the biggest annual increase Since April of 2023 so more or less a One-year high in the rate of change There there's been more house for sale Also and this year compared to last year For for 24 I can't talk today for 24 Consecutive weeks since mid November of 2023 which of course gives more options For home buyers looking to buy house Right now and that in turn uh limits the Price growth uh that we're seeing today Um also as I mentioned below inventory Has been on the rise in my personal Opinion due to two main reasons number One an increase of newly listed houses Or new listings and number two a Declining of demand or home buying Demand because pending home sales According to data from redin are down on A year-year basis uh and also at nearly A threeyear low during this time frame Despite more houses being listed for Sale now speaking of housing inventory I Like to provide multiple sources on my Channel um of course as well so looking At data from alos research.com uh not a PID promotion but they have a really Good website looking at you know National level Statewide level and City Level um analytics regarding our housing
Market in any case the most recent Trends we have from them is for the week Ended um April 19th this year uh According to them there's 543,000 Existing houses for sale one year ago Approximately 415,000 so this means we Have approximately 128,000 more homes for sale Nationwide From 12 months ago that's a 31% increase Year-over-year also I talk about this Quite a bit on the channel but this is Super super important here because uh we Really want to focus on not the the Change from U the number of houses for Sale right now compared to preco levels But in my opinion we should be focusing On the rate of change and in fact over The past two weeks inventory has been Absolutely skyrocketing much different Or actually much higher compared to the Rate we saw in 2022 when inventory was absolutely Skyrocketing as well so in any case I Put this together I've been doing this For I don't know several months now There's approximately 44,00 More House of ver sale this year Compared to the start of this year That's a 9% growth rate year-to date so Far this year compared that to the same Time frame last year inventory was down By 12% compared to the first week last Year so this year inventory increased by 9% whereas last year we were down by 12%
So in other words Supply was falling From January through April last year Where as it's going up this year I'll Also share a chart from alos here in a Little bit and just for fun I added this As well not for fun but just for Comparison sake um the amount of Houser Sale um right now is still approximately 39% lower compared to the same week of 2019 also something I noted noted as Well from my video I posted one month Ago uh the increase of inventory on a Year-year basis was up by 24% now it's up by 31% % so the growth Rate on a yearly basis is actually Gaining momentum and again that's good News if you're looking to buy house we Want to see more options uh but of Course an increase of inventory due to Decreasing demand and more new listings Uh limits um home price growth as well Uh which frankly is needed given the Fact we have you know alltime record Lows uh for housing affordability uh Here's alos research.com inventory this Is existing houses only uh again 543,000 Now one year ago 414,000 so at 543,000 higher than last year but way Higher compared to uh this time in 2022 And 21 but at 543,000 this is still less Than 2020 as well as 2019 down by about 39% Now let me zoom in um going back to the Trough which was really in mid February
Uh 2022 compared to now and you can see Why I'm talking about this rapid rise of Inventory um here's 2022 that was when We saw a surge of inventory uh the Trough was around you know 240,000 and By the time we hit uh the end of July We're already at around 540,000 so an Increase of about 300,000 in a matter of months which Shocked the housing market so what I uh Noticed today is the rapid rise in Inventory or the past two weeks as you Can see here let me just kind of move my Cursor you can see this rapid rise in in Inventory over the past two weeks which Is actually faster than the previous two Weeks we saw in 2022 now don't get me wrong I think this Is something we should track and see if This trend continues because this will Imply that uh we're not going to see This rapid rise in prices like we saw Over the past several years um but I Don't think we're going to see this Rapid rise it's going to Skyrock ET all The way until we hit you know late um Summer months like we saw in 2022 and The reason why inventory absolutely Skyrocketed then was because rates went From around 3.3% I think it was at the Beginning of 2022 and increased to about 7% uh towards the end of the year and That shocked the housing market caused a Lot of people not to list their houses
For sale but on the supply or the demand Side it also caused a lot of people not To buy a house they're seeing their Housing payments or their would be Housing payments you know basically Doubling because rates more than doubled Le in less than 12 months so because of All this factors that's why inventory Absolutely skyrocketed in 2022 so I'm Not expecting to see that but the big Increase over the past two weeks is Something notable uh that we should Definitely um follow and of course I'll Um definitely keep posted with latest Developments on that so make sure you're Subscribed um let's also go back here to Um inventory level So inventory again increased by 31.7 um part of the reason or one of the Main reasons I should say is due to an Increased in the number of newly listed Houses that Rose by 13.5% year-over-year excluding the Easter holiday week which was two weeks Ago or actually three weeks ago um the Number of nisin have been have been Higher than the same time frame last Year for the past 26 weeks in a row Again that's a main contributor and Again that's one of the main reasons why Inventory has been rising also due to The fact that um demand has also been Decreasing as well now here's something That's um new as well regarding uh days
In the market or the change of days in The market uh this is a time frame again When you get your house listed for sale And then you accept an offer from home Buyer that's days in the market but it's Not recorded until your your house U is Uh actually closes or the sales Finalized so this uh call right here is A lagging indicator of our housing Market so any case uh over the past two Weeks uh it's been taking about the same Time frame to sell a house compared to One year ago prior to that about one Month ago houses were selling faster Compared to the same time frame last Year for 25 consecutive weeks let's also Discuss the percent change in the number Of reduced price listings these are Houses for sale in which the home seller Was overzealous and they have to reduce Their asking price in order to entice a Home buyer uh to place an offer so last Week that Rose by 52.8% besides two weeks ago this is the Biggest annual gain since April of 20123 we've also had 13 consecutive Weeks of year- gains in the number of Reduced price listings it also has been More or less accelerating um over the Past 13 weeks as well in my personal Opinion the recent why we're seeing um The number of reduced price listings Increase compared to 12 months ago is Due to two main reasons number one
Rising inventory levels uh inventory is Up by about 31% year-over-year which Gives more options for home buyers which Means that more home sellers have to Compete against each other in order to Get their house sold and number two due To home buyers sitting on the sidelines Due to 7% plus mortgage rates so that Was the percent change in the number of Reduced price listings let's take a look At the share so share price drops According to Altos is at 32% this means That three out of every 10 houses for Sale right now have reduced or asking Prices a share of around uh 32% this is Slightly higher from last year this time When the share was out 29% but at 32% This is way higher compared to 2022 at Around 19% and also uh way higher Compared to 2021 when the share of price Drops was at 16% um also at 32% this is still higher from 2020 as well as 2019 all right I threw a Lot of information at you guys so here's A summary for you guys and I'll provide Some you know thoughts regarding what Happened this week regarding our housing Market and some thoughts about what lies Ahead number one the median asking price Was um down compared to one year ago That was the biggest year- decrease on Record for their weekly data that goes Back to July of
2017 this is likely due to an increase Of housing inventory more hous for sale Um also due to more price reductions From the increase of inventory and also Due to elevated mortgage rates also Number two housing inventory increased By 32% last week that was the biggest Annual increase since April of 2023 one of the biggest increases in one Year this is likely from lackluster home Bin demand and a significant rise of Newly listed houses but even though the Number of new listings have have been on The rise we're still down by about 39% From preco levels regarding inventory Levels um like I mentioned though over The past two weeks inventory has been Rapidly rising and this is something we Should definitely um follow in the weeks Ahead number three average 30-year fixed Mortgage rates have decreased by about 60 basis points or 6 perc points since Last October when we had 8% rates but Because n about 90% of people who have a Mortgage on their house have an interest Rate below 6% that's Based on data from Uh Q3 of 2023 that has been limiting the amount Of newly listed houses and thus keeping Inventory well below uh 2019 levels a Friendly reminder though we do not need To see inventory rise above pre pandemic Levels in order to see home prices Decrease that's exactly what we saw in
2022 inventory didn't even get close to 2018 and 2019 levels but home prices Decreased big time in the last half of 2022 yeah let's watch the rate of Increases of inventory in the coming Months and I'll keep you post on that Number four the share of price Deductions is slightly higher from this Time last year but much higher compared To the previous 3 years number five a Month ago houses were selling faster uh Compared to the same time frame one year Ago for 25 consecutive weeks now they're Selling just as fast as last year it's Flat again that's a laggy indication of Our housing market so what are some Potential huge changes ahead again I am Not a real estate market fortune teller I do not speculate very much on this Channel because if you speculate and You're wrong in my opinion you lose Credibility and there's so many things That impact your housing market that are Completely beyond our control how many People are going to decide to list their Houses for sale what's the direction of Mortgage rates uh are we going to see Another covid pandemic I mean there's so Many things that affect our Market that Makes it nearly impossible to predict What's going to happen so any case Number one average 30-year rates um have Increased by about 90 basis points from April of 2023 so rates have increased by
About 0.9 percentage points over the Past one year that causes a 10% decrease In buyer purchasing power also according To redin from last Thursday housing Affordability reached a new all-time Record low due to elevated rates and Home prices and speaking of housing Affordability it's still a huge hurdle For home buyers right now I mean just Look at the rapid rise in rates since 2021 uh rates went from 3% now they're Over 7% on top of that home prices have Increased by about 40% ever since 2019 Number three early signs of home buying Demand have been absolutely all over the Place making it very challenging to Report this to you guys uh but also it's Just such a volatile housing market the Most recent stats we have regarding Applications for Home Loans to BU houses From the MBA for the week ended April 19th uh they posted um last Wednesday That applications decrease by 15% year-over-year also the National Association rors reported uh just a few Days ago that pending home sales this March were flat from a year ago and Remains very close to all-time record Lows in start contrast though new home Construction sales a measure of Contracts being signed between Builders And home buyers so it's really like a Pening home sale not a closed home sale That increased by 8% for the same time
Frame so existing houses contracts being Signed flat year of year whereas the new Home construction Rose by 8% uh this is due to home builders Offering closing cost credits lower Mortgage rates and free Builder upgrades In order to entice home buyers to place Offers on brand new houses it also Appears our housing market um is highly Rate dependent as well once uh a Inflation report gets announced if it Comes in you know hotter than expected Rates absolutely Skyrocket even it Misses just by a little bit so the data Coming in is ever changing and therefore Rates are Ever Changing as well and of Course a fing reminder that real estate Is local uh today's video is based on National Trends which may be different Or the same uh in your area number four The direction of our US housing market Will depend on unemployment mortgage Rates inventory I would just say the Rate of inventory changes and the Balance between supply and demand number Five of course this is the most Important one I appreciate you guys Watching today's video of course for all Of you who who has supported my channel For over four years now I appreciate you Guys so much I mean I wouldn't I Wouldn't be doing this without you guys So I appreciate you so much if you Haven't subscribed just yet I invite you
To do so if you guys want real estate Agent referral check out my website Which is real estate teamind finder.com Hope you guys have an awesome day or Weekend and we'll see you on the next Video [Music] [Music]
