I won't ask for a pinpoint number but I'm sure you can give me a Range what Kind of range are you thinking about Well the range isn't so important to us John it's more about okay is you know What happens with earnings okay so if Earnings come down and we've talked About this before if earnings come down In a way that we think is appropriate With with the path that we see and we Don't get a reset on price then we'll Just say it's over okay so we you know That could be here that could be you Know down five percent it could be down Twenty percent you know my you know our Work suggests it's going to be down Closer to 20 from here so color low Three thousands Um we don't have a crystal ball Obviously but we can confidently say is That the equity risk premium and the Multiples that are being reflect do not Reflect the earnings risk that we see And we think the reason why that's Happening is twofold number one the Economy is better and people were not Thinking that three months ago I would Say the biggest shift in that regard is You know three months ago most Institutional Appliance staff that are Recession was very likely now they're Thinking it's not so likely anymore so That's a big you know sea change and Then of course this liquidity picture
That we've been writing about and Talking about where Global money supply Growth is spent offset more than Offsetting what the FED has been trying To do with tightening Financial Conditions and has created sort of an Ambulent environment for asset prices That's not sustainable in our view but We'll you know we you know the timing it Has been a little tricky Mike I'm sure You get a ton of questions about the October load based on everything you've Said obviously we don't have a crystal Ball a lot of people would lean on Market history though how rare would it Be if October was the low Well okay let's assume a few things Let's assume that our earnings forecast Is more right than wrong meaning that The forward estimates have not yet Dropped it would be somewhat Unprecedented from a timing standpoint To let's say that earnings drop sometime This summer or in the fall when we think It would be unprecedented for the market To about in that far in advance okay but Of course we could be wrong about our Earnings forecast right we don't know That's another thing we can't be it's Not infallible but the odds are with us The odds are because our model is very Much in gear we have to go with the Probabilities and that's why we that's Why we've been making the call we've
Been making is that we just don't think The fair market is finished because the Earnings recession is far from finished
