Hey welcome back Zillow just announced Their latest housing market forecast for Home values and home sales uh through 20125 I have a lot to share in today's Video If you guys get any value then Please hit the like button also consider Subscribing as well I have a lot to Share so let's go aead and Dive Right In This was just announced a couple days Ago so let's first talk about their Forecast for home values then I'll share Their forecast for home sales and how That compares to years past as well and Then stay tuned toward the end of this Video I'll share the forecast for Individual cities as well so just posted Actually this posted three days ago Anyways zillow's latest forecast is now Projecting that home value growth and Existing home sales to see a minor Uptick albeit at still low levels Relative historical Norms so before I Share this historical norms for home Sales is around 5 million houses that Sold uh also home values tend to Increase in the range of 3 to 5% so take A look at this Zillow now expects at Home values to only increase by 2.1% this year a modest uptick from last Month's projection of only a 1.8% growth Rate uh by the end of 2024 also over the next 12 months this Is through August of 2025 Zillow is forecasting that home
Values will only increase by 1.4% so They're forecasting that home values Will still increase but at relatively Low levels basically half the levels we Should be seeing uh historically Speaking also something keep in mind Here real estate's local as well right Because some areas have a lot of houses For sale uh compared to pre-co levels Where uh as of you know other areas such As in um parts of California the Northeast the Midwest um have a lack of Houses for sale and therefore we're Seing a lot of variations in um home Vales over the past 12 months so that Will all Impact overall values over the Next 12 months um especially in areas That have a lot of inventory compared to 2019 so in term of home sales let's talk About that so they're now anticipating For 4.1 million existing home sales that Will occur this year that's only up by .4% compared to last year's levels and Last year we basically had nearly a Three decade low in home sales then Increase from uh 4.1 to 4.3 million in 2025 which is an improvement of 5.3% so let's actually get a little bit Nerdy here because I want to share how These numbers compared to years past Because just saying this 4.11 million What does that really mean so take a Look at this here's a forecast 4.1 Million which is a decrease of. 2%
Compared to last year and last year by The way we had just under 4.1 million Home sales the lowest level since 1995 which is um mind-blowing just Thinking about that we have tens of Millions or more people living in the United States right now but we had the Fewest amount of home sales last year Since 1995 absolutely crazy which is Quite the turnaround because back in 2021 we had 6.1 million that was a 15-year high so if we do get to 4.1 Million this year which in my opinion I Think this a little bit lofty I think We're going to be around 4 million and I'll share my um calculation on that That's basically the same number um as a Previous forecast so one month ago Zillow forecasted also for 4.1 million Sales this year so excluding last year This would be the fewest number of home Sales since the year of 2008 in 2008 Even though we had the Great Recession There we had 4.1 million sales my Prediction as I mentioned we should see Around 4 million sales based on the Sales pace so far this year and I just Added a note here this is a note to Myself I'll share that with you guys um By the way 4 million would be the fewest Amount of sales since 1995 um and I'll show that with you guys Here in a little bit actually let me Just share it with you right now so 4.1
Million uh going back to 2008 we had 4.11 million but look at the 1995's or 1995 1990s we had it in the Range of what around 3.1 million to uh End the uh the decade at around 5.2 Million so at 4.1 million this is Basically on par with the lowest level Or I should say at 4 million this is More or less on par with the lowest Level since 1995 also if we do get to 4.1 million This year that would be decrease of 23% Uh compared to 2019 back then we had uh 5.34 million Sales and that's a huge decrease um Compared to pre-co levels also based on My nerdy Excel formula there the median Number of home sales uh going back to The year 1989 this by the way is data From the National Association rars at uh 5 million sales that's the med number Going all the way back until 1989 so it's more normal to see 5 Million sales you know basically just Over 5 million sales historically Speaking but if we get to only four .1 Million that means we're missing Approximately 1 million houses that Close um this year compared to the long Run average also just for comparison Sake um Fanny May also announced their Forecast this year uh they're calling For just over 4 million sales at 4, 62,000 so rent it up to about 4.1
Million is on par with Zilla forecast as Well and by the way sales include um Single family houses town homes condos And co-ops so I want to share this to You guys as well in my video I mentioned Um yesterday which was on Friday I'm Making this video on Friday um but I Mentioned how we have um or basically on Track to have um fewer amount of home Sales this year compared to last year so I actually pulled data from n's website Looking at the actual number of home Sales this is not seasonally adjusted It's also not analized as well these are Actual number of home sales Uh this year and also last year so January through August is right here we Had 2.81 million home sales uh from January through August last year compare That to the same time frame this year January through August we have 2,739 th000 so therefore we have 71,000 Fewer home sales this year compared to Last year which is a decrease of 3% I Want to share my thoughts regarding this As well with you guys so if we have you Know 3% fewer homes for sale compared to Last year when last year was basically At a 28-year low it's just actually Mind-blowing we're basically um having a Crash in home sales last year and this Year going down very slightly so a small Decrease already based on a very small Amount so I do not I really don't see
This improving by the end of the year Unless buyers decide to take advantage Of these lower rates and of course Higher inventory numbers as well so Rates have decreased by about 100 basis Points compared to October last year When the average rate was around 8% now We're hovering around just over 6% right Now so we have more buyer purchasing Power but of course we have elevated Prices um right now of course as well so I don't see this improving unless buyers Get off the sidelines due to the Decreasing rates but also due to more Houses for sale as well some areas have A glut of house for sale so you can get A deal out there right now um so I Really don't see that improving unless These um factors take place also really Quickly I want to share my own estimate Regarding um home sales so far this year So My estimate is basically let's just Call it rounding up to 4 million home Sales so what I did here I took the Number of home sales we had last year at 4 M9000 multiplied that by 97 which is a 3% decrease uh compared to last year Which is basically the U the the Decrease compared to uh January through August this year compared to the same Time frame last year anyways at the Current sales Pace if we continue to see A 3% decrease in sales further remain of
The year compared to last year we should Get to just under 4 million home sales And again I really don't see um home Sales rebounding for the remainder of The year compared to last year and That's why I think we'll basically be on Track with the decrease we're seeing so Far this year which would get us to Around 4 million sales by year end all Right let's get back to zillow's Forecast here and if you guys got any Value out of that please let me comment Below uh and also hit the like button as Well I appreciate you guys so much uh I Just like uh making videos like these I Don't know jeez I'm I'm a nerd what can I say anyways all right so easing Inflation and more accommodating uh Rates have modestly improved Affordability for would be home buyers So the decrease in rates makes it more Affordable by houses but of course we Haven't seen a huge decrease in home Prices as of yet but this Dynamic of Improved affordability uh should help Boost lising activ and sales however While demand should improve some as a Result of this expectations for home Value growth remain muted in large part Because of steady increases in for sale Inventory so let me break this down to Playing English because we have a lot More House of sale right now compared to One year ago looking at a national level
Every Market's different uh that is Going to kind of like mute the gains in Home prices forther remain of the year And also through 2025 if we continue to See uh inventory increasing or um up Compared to the previous year also the Number of houses on the market is up by 22% from the same time frame last year According to data from uh Zillow putting Some downward pressure on prices for Buyers this means there are more options And of course more bargaining power so I Want to give you guys an update Regarding inventory according to Real.com and this is according to our Good uncle Fred or it's on our good Uncle Fred's website so according to Roll.com for August there's 999,000 homes for sale this is a huge Increase compared to what we saw last August when last August we had around 670,000 so therefore we have Approximately 35% more house for sale uh Looking at realtor.com latest data now Here's what it gets really interesting Though I only can zoom back to July 2016 That's the maximum U data we can go back To so at uh what is this uh 999,000 Right now looking at pre-co levels back In August 2019 1.2 million August 2018 1.3 million rent it up August 2017 1.3 Million and August of 2016 just under 1.5 million houses for sale so even Though inventory is up right now and
Basically at the highest levels right Now going all the way back until May of 2020 so we're basically at a fouryear High uh regarding inventory levels right Now we're still way below pre-co levels Right now but again just taking a step Back here because we have this basically A four-year High uh regarding inventory Levels that should put um less down Pressure on price increases in other Words prices could increase but we're Not going to see this giant increase of Home prices like we saw of course in 2020 through early 2022 all right let's Get back to zillow's housing market Forecast here so on a national level by The time we hit August 2025 compared to This August they're calling for a gain Of 1.5% which is just kind of laughable Here because it says here over the next 12 months Zillow forecast that home Values will grow by 1.4% so why is there Graph here show 1.4 5% fail anyways uh Let's look at um some particular areas Let's look at Albuquerque New Mexico They're predicting that home values will Increase by 2.7% quite a bit higher compared to the 1.4% on a national level also looking at Atlanta Georgia up by 1.5% uh Baker Bakersfield California and SoCal up by 1.8% let's look at Cape Coral Florida I Know they have a lot of inventory there
Uh up by only 3% over the next 12 months One thing regarding keep Coral though Look at the bottom or the trough right Here back in July 2020 they're at a uh Home value at 242,000 and by the time we hit September 2022 it increased to 48,000 giant increase in prices uh During the uh you know right after the Uh onset of covid so a small increase of 3% is nothing to cry about because of This giant run up in home prices U over The past several years let's also have a Look at Boise CD Ido they're calling for A gain of Point % month-to month up by 3% um let's look at Charlotte North Carolina um up by 2% a little bit higher Compared to the national average um also Colorado Springs I used to live there a Long long time ago down by 6% let's Actually look at Denver Colorado as well I know they have a lot more housing for Sale comp to 09 or 2019 I should say Down by 8% so we're calling for home Values to decrease by 8% over the next 12 months perver Connecticut has Probably seen a big increase because They have a lock of house I mean that's Just absolutely astounding look at that Back in let's just look at January 2020 233,000 now they're calling for it to be By the time we hit August 376,000 up by 3% so double the national Average based on their predictions let's
Also take a look at Las Vegas they're Calling for a decrease down by 2% and let's look At Los Angeles California up by 1.5 on Par with the national average couple More guys let's talk about National Tennessee up by 8% so on par with the National average and then let's look at Um Houston I want to see Houston where Is that Houston right there Houston down By 7% also want to look at Austin Texas As well if we can find that if I can Figure this out Austin Texas is right Here look at that down by 2.1% I mean Much lower compared to what they're Forecasting overall so 444,000 by the time we hit August um Next year the peak was at a whopping 555,000 so basically what a 110,000 less Than the peak of 2022 and that of course is because they Have a glut of houses for sale uh Compared to 2019 now here's one of the Biggest decreases I actually have found That is in San Francisco they're calling For a decrease down by 3.5% which is astonishing because of Course looking at home values over $1 Million so 1,17 th000 by the time we hit August Right now this August they're right Around 1.1 5 million also quite a bit Lower compared to the peak of 2022 when At that time there was just over 1.2
Million or the uh home home value was Just over $1.2 million um I'll provide a Link in the video description below for This because of course there a lot more Cities if you guys want to look at it Also if you guys got any value out Today's video then please hit the like Button I greatly appreciate that of Course I appreciate you have an amazing Day please like And subscribe and we'll See you on the next video thank you very Much [Music] [Music]
