[Music] It's a good World good World welcome back to real estate Mindset this video is going to be Absolutely Bonkers now the data is in And home buying sticker shock is Absolutely wrecking the housing market Right now and I have a question guys and Really please think about this what's More important or what's a stronger Factor consumer spending habits or a Healthy balanced economy and think about It what if consumer spending habits is What's really driving the problems in The housing market right now what if People would just save money and just Doing that would be enough to reset the Housing market now look at GDP roughly 70% of GDP is from consumer spending Consumer spending habits and when we Look at how many consumers which is 78% Of consumers are living paycheck to Paycheck it makes sense that Society Needs us to go broke Society the economy Rather needs us to spend until the end So why don't we just stop spending now Regardless of all of that guys here's The thing job loss will kill the housing Market job loss to the housing market is Like bleach to a pond of life it will Kill everything so job loss Will will Kill the housing market now what we're Going to do today is we're going to
Review a Zillow housing market update For March and it's actually a pretty Decent breakdown on what's going on in Various markets now obviously guys we're Going to go over macro data if you want Micro Data you got to go hyper local Generally reviewing subdivision and Doing a subdivision analysis on Comparable sales but nevertheless we're Going to go over Zillow it's a decent Breakdown actually it's going to go into A little bit of existing new homes we're Going to look at a map of price growth On a month-over-month basis plus we'll Look at other additional data points to Kind of just figure out what's going on With unaffordability and whether or not That's going to change anytime soon now The name of this month's Zillow housing Market update is the expensive get more Expensive home value growth tops and Highest priced markets it's very Interesting because what it's really Pointing out y'all is that the million Dooll houses are selling so more million Doll houses are selling and less $750,000 houses and below are selling And honestly that may be why prices look The way they do but also what's Interesting is is the country is very Divided and places like Maryland where Todd works it's bidding wars in places Like where I work in Houston and near Austin I you know in Houston I can find
Deals at 2021 prices in Austin I found a New home community that was abandoned so Different markets do different things Now listen to this guys you know again Some of this is pretty spoton I'm kind Of a little bit impressed with Zillow For once a little bit keep in mind home Shoppers are filling vastly different Levels of competition depending on where They're looking and inventory is a Critical Factor Amen to that buyers in The most expensive major US metros are Seeing seasonal price appreciation ramp Up faster than anywhere else isn't that Interesting so again the more expensive Areas are ramping up the fastest that's Having an impact on median sales price Very interesting so kind of the rich get Richer monthly home value growth is Highest in the coastal California metros And Seattle topping out at 3.3% in San Jose after San Jose typical home values Rose fastest from February to March in San Francisco at 2.7 Seattle at 2.4 San Diego again at 2.1 and Los Angeles at 2% All five comprise the most expensive Markets among the 50 largest in the US Isn't that intriguing now the job market Has a lot to do with it look at this Next thing guys Shoppers in these Tech Heavy markets so a lot of this is Tech Heavy thank you Bank term funding Program and for bailing out the tech Heavy Banks okay because if we didn't
Have that a lot of these Tech heavy Markets would see deflation like they Did at the end of 2022 and in the Beginning of 2023 Shoppers in these Tech Heavy markets are still experiencing Bidding wars as a commonplace they all Ranked among the 10 major markets with The highest share of homes sold over Asking price in February the most recent Data Available buyers are competing over few Choices all of those metros have seen Below average recovery and inventory Compared to pre pandemic everything is Up from 2022 FYI remember they were all Fairly hot coming into the pandemic so Inventory was starting from a lower Baseline very interesting meanwhile Appreciation is subdued thank goodness In southern metros where existing Inventory has grown or nearly recovered Since the onset of the pandemic and has Helped Along by robust injections of new Construction that's exactly what's going On in Texas now that robust injection of Inventory and new construction is also Starting to hit the Carolinas and also Florida but again this is great stuff But a massively divided housing market West Coast east coast mly different than Southern Metro areas now metros with the Slowest but still fairly strong growth Are New Orleans San Antonio Tampa Orlando and Jacksonville and that's all
Texas and Florida all clock in just over 05% appreciation on a month-over-month Basis this goes on this is very good so Far very impressed comment below and let Me know whether or not you agree so far This goes on new construction is Providing a pre relief valve in these Metros giving move up buyers a place to Go new listings of existing homes have Risen from prepandemic levels in New Orleans and Austin and San Antonio and The Florida metros above have seen some Of the smallest drop offs this is great News great great great great news Recovering inventory in those areas has Helped ease competition and bring price Appreciation under control New Orleans And San Antonio are two of the three Markets where buyers actually have more Choices than pre pandemic that's crazy Guys that's great news fantastic news Actually and probably why San Antonio is Now leading with price decline amazing Guys while each of the Florida markets Are down just 9% tied for the second Smallest drop Nationwide The Divide Between hot and cold listings persisted Very divided housing market and many Mar Markets where new and total inventory Has recovered buyers are gaining Traction in negotiation so again in my Area I see this this is great buyers are Taking advantage of inventory and Incentives we can bully sellers in my
Market but in markets again like Todd Bidding wars waving contingencies you Really got to understand how divided Things are and how important reviewing Local data is now this goes on meeting Age of all listings on Zillow is 43 days So do about 43 days a similar story Emerges when looking at Price Cuts Versus sold over list more than one in Five sellers cut their list price in March the largest share for this time of Year in Zillow data reaching back more Than a decade so that's what I'm saying The expensive houses are selling the Medium houses are not we see that guys And we know that because price cuts are Exploding and you know over a decade High that's crazy over a decade high Price Cuts places where cuts are the Most common you guys probably already Know Tampa Phoenix thank goodness Welcome back Phoenix and you guys keep Your eyes on Surprise Arizona also Jacksonville San Antonio and Orlando so Again Texas and Florida now this points Out this is interesting on the other Hand nearly 27% of homes sold over list price in February compared to 19% pre pandemic so a lot higher right So a lot higher we need that to go down On a nationwide average sellers who Price their home correctly and amped up Their real and digital curb pill
Shouldn't have a problem cashing out and Moving on well in my market we do have a Problem I know that because my own home Has been listed for over three weeks and We have had zero interest and I'm listed At market value think about it I cannot Sell my house right now now moving on to Home values the value of the typical Home in the US is 355,000 payment is $1,851 that's also up 100 triple digits Guys 108% again mortgage payments are up from Pre- pandemic 108% that is not sustainable in my Opinion now home values did climb month Over month in all 50 Metro areas the Strongest gains were San Jose at 3.3 That's a lot month over month San Francisco at 2.7 Seattle 25 San dieg Diego 21 Los Angeles 2% all California And one Seattle Washington so all West Coast very intriguing the slowest Monthly growth was in New Orleans San Antonio Tampa Orlando and Jacksonville So again Texas and Florida home values Are up from a year ago so year-over-year In 47 of the 50 largest metro areas the Highest increases on a year-over-year Basis is Hartford At 12.7 San Diego 11.8 San Jose 11.2 Boston at 99.5% and Los Angeles at 99.3% a lot of California metros right there now home Values are down from a year ago in three
Metro areas number one is New Orleans Now this is interesting because Different data sets give you different Results so it's really important to use Multiple data sets to triangulate what's Really going on but New Orleans is down 7.6% Austin down 4.1% and San Antonio Down 1.9% values have risen the least on the Year overy year basis in Birmingham Alabama at 1.4% and Jacksonville Florida at 1.7% new construction in the South Including Florida and Texas has better Kept pace with demand that's helped Bring back appreciation back down after Extreme pandemic era growth I've been Saying this since the creation of my Channel how new construction will lead Us and that's exactly what's happening And that's why Texas and Florida are Leading with price decline now if you Want to look at the map Zilla has put Together a month over Monon value change Math again this is month over month this Is not YTD or Y over y this is just Month over month a lot of growth out West just so crazy so crazy to see this Coastal growth now again when you go to Texas here not a lot of growth Louisiana Not a lot Mississippi Alabama not a lot Florida not a lot East Coast a lot a lot Of growth there and also up north very Very interesting if you guys want to
Come back here to check out this map Please do so this will be linked in the Description okay guys moving on to new Listings new listings very important we Need new listings we need inventory Total active count to sustained so new Listings are very important now new Listings did increase month over month In March 5 15.5% that's great and 3.5% Year-over-year it's interesting again The differences in results depending on The data provider bullet point two new Listings are 25.4% lower than pre-pandemic levels so We want to see that go up much of the Progress made in February to climb out Of the deep pandemic inventory whole was Lost so thank goodness guys that we've Had higher interest rates because we Need sustained inventory and it looks Like the higher interest rates are Starting to Tamper down demands bullet Point three metros where the most Sellers are jumping back into the market Compared to last year are San Jose crazy At 18% Dallas also crazy at 16% and Tampa at 15% I mean maybe they're taking Advantage of the lowered prices in those Markets and the increased in new Construction inventory bullet point Three markets with the fewest new Listings compared to last year sadly as Boston
At 177% and Pittsburgh at 14% followed By this is crazy Washington DC at 13.7% again Zillow has made a map of a Year-over-year inventory a lot of places Have growth some don't you'll see here That surprisingly you know New Orleans Doesn't have growth in inventory and yet It's down massively same thing for uh Birmingham Alabama very interesting and Also you see here near Washington Massive loss of inventory uh Buffalo Loss of inventory year-over year very Interesting West Coast all increases I Mean look at this El Paso that's crazy El Paso leads the way at a Year-over-year increase of inventory of [Music] 37.2% I'm going to be watching El Paso Number two Mallen at 26.1 very intriguing when we move on to Total inventory total inventory in March Increased by 7% so total inventory Increased also good news guys there was A there was 12.2% year-over-year increase in active Listings that's also great news Unfortunately we want more we want a lot More as much inventory as possible now Inventory levels are 36.4% lower than pre pandemic so again We need it to sustain it did not sustain In 2023 in my opinion rates were not High enough now inventory row annually In Most Metro areas sitting at 36 of the
50 large metal areas most in Tampa at 38% Dallas at 37% so that may be another Reason why there's more buyers because They have more options think about it Orlando sitting at 33% now bullet point Four inventory fail the most year-over Year in New York City that's messed up Sorry New York at 14.8 Las Vegas brutal 14.4 and buffalo 10.6 moving on to competition on Market Attractive listings that are priced Correctly are selling quickly listings That sold in March stayed on the market Just 13 days before going under contract That's slightly lower for this time of Year than in 2021 or 2022 but far faster Than pre pandemic which was 21 days to Pending but you know how do they decide Attractive listings right I mean that's Interesting data median days to pending Will likely continue to decline in April And stay low in May May mispriced or Poorly marketed homes are taking longer To sell the meeting average of all Listings on Zillow in March was and this Is to Dave Ramsey 43 days so I think When Dave Ramsey was quoting like the National averages I think he meant Attractive listings because the most Attractive of all listings was only 13 Days but again Dave Ramsey you can't Just only look at the most best of all The data you gotta look at the whole Picture the whole picture is 43 days you
Guys agree let me know price cuts and Looking at both sides of the coin sold Over list price so that's both sides of That coin sellers are cutting prices at The highest rate since 2018 for this Time of year that's great in March more Than one in five homes on Zillow had a Price cut about 5% points higher than Pre-pandemic Norm so price cuts are Surging past prepandemic Norms the most Common place of price Cuts is Phoenix Thank God 33% Jacksonville 27% San Antonio 27% Orlando 27 and Nashville Thank goodness Trey that's for you Brother 26.7% in Nashville now again looking at That other side of the coin 26.6% of Homes sold above their list priced in February 2024 the latest data available That's compared to 24.2% that sold over List a year before and 20.6 that sold Over list at this time pre pandemic H Sold over over list priced most often Unfortunately in San Jose shocking 69.4% San Francisco 62% Harford 61% insane right Boston 49 and Los Angeles 49 as well crazy guys now Looking at rent this is a problem as Well inflation's coming back thank you Deficit spending and government jobs and All of this other nonsense asking rents Increased 6% month over month in March Sitting at about 1983 pep pandemic Average rate was 0.5% so it's right
About pre- pandemic but it's still too High because we didn't have any Deflation really rents are now three Point up 3.6% year-over-year now rents fell on a Monthly basis in just one major mental Area which is Pittsburgh at 0.2% with the slowest growth being in Cleveland Salt Lake City Charlotte and Milwaukee now rents are up from a year Ago in 48 of the 50 Metro areas largest Growth guys Providence 88.2% Lewisville 6.9 Cleveland 6.5 Hartford 6.4 and Boston at 6.1 now other than interest rates prices Are a big reason for the unaffordability Guys obviously I like to look at the PE Ratio now this is lagging this is only Going to December 2023 odds are this is Going to be higher when it's updated Because interest rates are higher right Now and as our median sales price Compared to December but we're sitting At 7.61 during the bubble we were Sitting at 6.8 roughly 6.8 6.9 uh so guys again the price is way Way overpriced look at this run up right Here absolutely incredible so the PE Ratio right now sitting at 77.5 now when We look here at the national payment Income ratio guys we're sitting at 34.4% This is higher than the GFC so we have a
Bigger price bubble than the GFC and we Have unaffordability from a national pay Income ratio of the 1980s but again I Want to remind you guys it's worse than This says because this is not counting Skyrocketing property taxes skyrocketing Homeowners insurance that didn't happen Like it is now in the 70s and 80s and That data is not even included in this Information I mean that's how expensive It is to buy right now it's it's a Triple whammy high prices High interest Rates low inventory it's bad over now Again some markets are getting better Some markets are not and according to Redin we have a new record high mortgage Payment so again the PE Ratio from a Price standpoint is probably it's high As it's ever been National payments Income ratio highest it's ever been That's just lagging data but right now You guys home buying payments are up According to redin 10% year-over-year It's a new record high going on this was The latest report from red fin and According to SEI fedwatch this is the Market's prediction on interest rates Unaffordability is going to be around For a long time if we look at December This is the end of the year you guys They're now pricing in a 15.8% likelihood that there are no rate Cuts in 2024 you guys remember the video I made a couple months ago saying that
There's going to be no rate Cuts in 2024 Unless there's some type of economic Collapse because if they cut rates they Would stimulate the economy stimulating The economy would create create more Inflation more inflation that consumers Cannot afford you guys again the job Once the job market goes everything Comes crashing down and so thank Goodness that buyers in the housing Market right now are experiencing Sticker shock because again guys buying Right now is the most expensive it's Ever been in history and that's what you Get if you buy right now now maybe you Can find a great deal hopefully you're Using data wedge cash flow you're Looking at analysis you're doing an Analysis and a property subdivision Hopefully you're doing that but we still In my opinion because we're not in Recession we still don't even have price Discovery you guys when we have price Discovery things in my opinion you're Going to be a lot more balanced but what I'm doing right now is I'm buckling down I'm increasing my purchasing power and I'm learning the trends in my market and Honestly I've made an offer for the last Two and a half years three years on a House because I'm staying active we got To stay active but we also have to say No and if you're a realtor please guys If you're a realtor help help America
Help your clients say no unless it's a Great deal and you know the difference You guys know the difference by now Anyways guys other than that if you're Out there investing in real estate you Guys already know I wish you luck and I Hope you win
