[Music] It's a good World good World welcome back to real estate Mindset today's video is going to be Absolutely Bonkers and Zillow flips once Again at the forecast on home prices now You guys I get a lot of comments that Saying Travis you're just saying things Because you're a fearmonger you just Want to make money but I want to remind You guys okay in real estate I cut my Arm off of sales if I really wanted to Make a tremendous amount of money doing YouTube all I would have to do is say It's time to buy think about what I'm Saying the reason why people say that It's mostly Realtors is so that they can Continue to spin the web and narrative That right now is smart is a great time To buy when the reality is you guys it's Not it's not a great time to buy at all People right now overall have a triple Whammy high prices High interest rates And low inventory now obviously guys we Go over macro dat if you really want to Understand your housing market you must Go hyper local you have to understand What's going on in subdivisions every Subdivision is different and therefore You have to understand what's going on In there and so understand as well that Generally in order to come up with value All all you need is three comparable
Sales in a subdivision so technically if There's one or two foreclosures or one Or two short cells in a subdivision it Can ruin it for everyone think about it So it can happen fast but right now it's Not there's still people purchasing and Most people that are purchasing right Now are purchasing million houses sales Are up for million doll houses and sales Are down for 750 and below so are prices Really going up or are just the rich Continuing to spend think about it Either way you guys we're going to get Started we're going to look at Zillow We'll look at Fred we'll look at Multiple data sources but I wanted to Give a big shout out to Jason Walter if You guys need editing hit up this man Helps me with all of my editing Jason Walter I appreciate all your help again You guys if you want any information on Editing his information is going to be In my description mad love to you sir Either way I hope you guys enjoy so We're going to start by going into Zillow's home value and home sales Forecast now remember you guys late 2021 They lost hundreds of millions of Dollars because their zestimate is not Accurate and we've kind of learned that By now a lot of the times we see that Their estimate fluctuates significantly Based on what's reported on MLS so a lot Of times they're not even using this
Estimate to come up with value this is a Fairly brief article but let's read it Zillow's home value forecast calls for Only they've changed this significantly 1.9% growth over 2024 that's a change You guys that is a massive decrease and That's very very good slower than Long-term Norms but a welcome slowdown For firsttime buyers compared to the Rapid appreciation seen over the Pandemic this is an upward revision from Last month's Outlook which projected Growth of 0.9% okay so I I apologize guys last Month they revised it down to 0.9 and They've re-revised that up I remember This year as well they they were I Believe in the 3% so I don't think I did A video on the 0.9 that's very Interesting regardless they're Flip-flopping like crazy with interest Rates still elevated the modest upward Revision is mostly the result of a Slowdown in the growth of new for sale Listings after rising at an annual place Of 21% in February the year-over-year Increases in new listings eased in March To just 4% indicating that the market Remains quite tight for wouldbe home Buyers it remains to be seen how new Listings will Faire in April the Easter Holiday falling in March and the fact That February was a leap year are likely Clouding the broader picture as well as
Again more million doll houses are Selling than $500,000 houses I'll show You that data as we make our way through The video zillow's expectation for home Sales was revised slightly downward so They're saying 1.9% growth that was Actually a slight revision upward but They're also saying sales are going to Be down and remember last year they were Horrible it's going to be worse this Year so they Revis slightly downward This month as elevated mortgage rates Continue to limit housing demand and Sales volume Zillow forecast now calls For 4.06 million existing home sales in 2024 slightly below 2023 is level of 4.09 million and the previous forecast Of 4.1 million existing home sales even After a better than expected sales count Reading in February leading indicators Of home sales in the coming months Suggest continued softness now remember You guys this is macro data and this is Zillow data Zillow data is trash but we Use this we use Redfin we use realtor we Use core logic because we have to Triangulate but the best data of all is Doing an analysis ourself by accessing MLS but nevertheless guys I put some Really horrible Metro areas like Jackson Mississippi which is down like 30 to 40% Year-over-year and they're Saying they're saying that it's going to Stabilize somehow and it's only going to
Be down 04 again Jackson Mississippi is Down 30 to 40% Zillow saying is willing To be down 0 4% year-over-year so I Don't know that I would trust them but This whole dropdown menu will give you a Better idea of what's going on now According to redin only San Antonio is on the year-over-year decline List let's see what Zillow say say so Zillow was saying that actually San Antonio is going to go up very Interesting so again even though it's Down that's crazy look at this guys I Mean that's crazy it's just basically Saying it's going to go up now this has Other things like home value map as well This is going to show you where values Are going up and look at right here There's New Orleans New Orleans is in The gutter right now obviously guys Everything else is virtually showing up Except right here Portland's down 0.5% Miniapolis down 1% very interesting San Jose 7 San Francisco 0.1 1 .3 it's just So different than red fin San Antonio 0.2 so again this is different so here It says San Antonio is down .2 uh but the projected growth is going To be positive Baton Rouge down Jackson There's Jackson Mississippi so that Doesn't make sense down 0 4% some of the Places uh East Coast look at that Washington DC very interesting finally Washington DC at 0 2% loss there's
Pittsburgh at 3% loss and this is Basically annual change forecast okay so That's a forecast very intriguing so This is year-over year this is insane Guys and now here's existing home sales As well you guys want to see existing Home sales there's a revision there and Then here's existing home sales year to Date so we're not off to a good start in Other words let me quickly show you guys The data again that's showing that Million dooll houses are selling not $500,000 houses and that's going to Impact prices if less small houses are Selling but more big houses are selling The median sales price will go up and I'll show you that this is such an Important piece of data that I'm finally Reviewing guys again this is existing Single family home sales this is a Year-over-year comparison each column is A price point and I want to go to the Bottom row right here where it says us So as we can see here you guys homes That are priced 0 to 100,000 those are Down 22% homes that are priced 100 to 250 are down almost 16% now the biggest Bulk of the pie is right here 250 to 500,000 those are down 88.1% Year-over-year and 500 to 750 are down 1.2% however when we go above 750,000 it's been blowing up okay so 750 To a million that's up year-over-year 5% But look at this this is insane1 million
Plus houses how how could you afford That how could you afford that $1 Million houses plus there's a plus right There 14% increase year-over-year now I'm not Saying all of the price increases is Because of that but definitely at least You guys a portion of the price Increases are because the higher price Houses are selling not the lower price Houses now just to give us an idea Additionally of what Zillow is saying And what they're expecting and I know They're hyper bullish I'm going to play A video about three segments of a video That's going to go into payments and What's going on in the overall housing Market and a Zillow Economist who I'm Not even sure if they're in their 30s is Going to predict what's going to happen Next in the housing market you kind of Zoom out out four years the monthly Mortgage payment needed to buy the Median priced home for sale when rates Were down and prices were lower in 2020 Was $1,480 that according to creative Planning's Charlie Bello it Rose to 1690 In 2021 then it popped to 2400 in 2022 And 2550 last year it's now 2775 that is a jump of 88% or so in the Last four years now all of this and lack Of homes for sale is smacking existing
Home sales they drop 4.3% in March Doesn't sound like a lot but it's the Biggest percentage decline in more than A year to add insult to injury the cost Of insurance premiums property taxes Maintenance whatever have all also gone Up and that's a very good point you guys Mortgage payments are not fixed even if You get a 30-year fixed rate mortgage if You escrow if you include your property Taxes your insurance those things Fluctuate every year and for the last Two to three years they have been Skyrocketing and the crazy thing is that Data is not used in National payment to Income ratio they're excluding property Taxes and insurance from affordability You can't do that things are blowing up And look at the payments you guys I mean Seriously an 88% increase in just four Years for mortgage payment that's the FED saying don't buy right now and if You do buy right now understand your Paying a premium in both price and rate And you're going to settle because There's no inventory basically right Depends on your Market my market again I Can find abandoned houses in my market What about you we're going to see Interest rates Spike but the price of Homes will also go go up I would have Said that's crazy because people buy Homes on the monthly payment but that's Exactly what's happened they shouldn't
Though yeah well the reality is though That about 70% of sellers are also Buying so sell okay guys for all the People that are wondering that remember It's net 30% so 70% of sellers purchase All right but probably going into like How unaffordable things it's probably Lower than that now but regardless we Get 30% net there's the info right there I hope you guys remember that are Sensitive in this environment as well in Fact if we look at the numbers you know Over March the fastest appreciating Markets were actually the most expensive They were the California Coastal markets And why was that well those are the Places we also saw the most aggressive Pullback well a continued pullback right From existing owners just not putting Their homes on the market for sale so Overall across the country we still have This experience of not enough homes and Enough buyers are still willing to move Forward in March homes successfully Priced and well marketed popular Neighborhoods uh the typical home that Went pending in March did so still in Only 13 days even at these prices even At these mortgage rates don't get me Wrong there are places where homes are Starting to linger more Florida and Texas are markets where new listings are Back up perhaps for some of the reasons That you have mentioned where it's
Holder harder for existing owners to Maybe you know choose to hold on to Higher insurance rates that were a Surprise to them so there's a lot of Different things going all across this Country but okay but not only that you Guys then I would agree because I live In Texas but Texas and Florida we're Getting ransacked by both property taxes And homeowners insurance but one of the Big things that she left out is in both Texas and in Florida overwhelming new Construction we have hyper Supply type Numbers for new homes and that is Flooding the market and drastically Affecting the subdivisions of existing Homes that are surrounded by new homes And don't forget the moment the very Moment a new home sells it becomes an Existing home so I think it's really Important to see all of the data but Sadly sadly sadly especially like on the East Coast some places in the west coast Vital science just goes out to you they Don't have a lot of new construction so If you don't have a lot of new Construction you're in a very very Difficult situation now we'll finish out The video she's going to go into the Boomers now the thing is with Boomers I Understand the argument a lot of people Think there's going to be some silver Tsunami people are going to start Selling but here's the thing most of the
Boomers are way better off than Millennials and that's a fact it is what It is the question I have to you is if You're a millennial is is what are you Going to do about it are you going to Save your money you're gonna get ahead Or you just going to keep doing the same Thing you've been doing the last decade In other words we can all change we can All get a house if we just make a Decision to do it set our goals and have Our goals shape our approaching number Of all cash buyers and they don't care About mortgage rates they could care Less yeah yeah and those are actually The same you know if we so we mentioned Texas and we mentioned Florida earlier You know those are areas where people Aren't as locked in for a couple of Reasons one lots of folks or at least a Larger share of the population are free And clear on their mortgage right They're older Boomers they move down There with Equity growth over the past You know 15 years these are the areas That we're not as locked in this is Where we're seeing a return of inventory Where we are seeing home prices falling Uh home prices fell over the year in Austin New Orleans right and are getting very Very soft and kind of other major metros In Texas so uh and actually because of Mortgage rates swinging up we saw record
Numbers of price Cuts so a sign that Things are yeah slowing down out there On the price in front but on net not Necessarily falling and on a net or Nationwide average and that is the truth But again I keep going really unless It's going into the subdivision looking At comps everything is macro real estate Is so local the only local Micro Data That you can as a buyer that makes sense You got to go subdivision I will keep Talking about that until we have tens of Thousands of real estate mindset members That are better at analysis than Realtors that's what I'm going to Do but I need you to learn a couple Things I want to go over before I exit Out of the video which is first is Active inventory this is going to update Probably in about 2 and a half weeks but I wanted wanted to point out you guys we Have almost double the inventory that we Had this time in 2022 so in two years we Were able to double the inventory I want This to be right around a million if we Can get a million active units not Pending but a million active units I Think we're going to be great in great Shape because that's where we're at pre- Pandemic look December 2019 we had a Million active units okay we and this Again this is not counting pending or You know this is all active we need it To go up hopefully it will start going
Up we're usually it's usually going to Start going up this time of year Hopefully we'll see that you can see it Really starts going up starting in May So keep your eyes on inventory that's a Very very important thing to watch and Again guys here's median sales price for All homes this includes existing and new You guys can see that you know according To this data this is a quarterly data Set looking at that median sales price Prices have been going down since Q4 of 2022 so so much conflicting data that's Why I'm constantly saying hyper local Hyperlocal subdivision we also see price Decline when we only look at new homes New homes have been going down since October of 2022 and quite frankly They're almost down 20% so you could Almost argue the fact that yeah new Homes are down are crashing in prices Right now and they're not even counting Most of the buying incentives which they Have to uh but they're not now as far as The four-week rolling average you guys We're almost at a new high record high We're about $33,000 off from the record High set around June of 2020 22 at least According to redin so we haven't hit That record yet but we are very very Close now when all of said and done what I really want you guys to understand is We really can't lean on any data we Really can't lean on any professionals
We really need to lean on ourselves we Really need if we are on the sidelines To be increasing our purchasing power Right in the front end of a recession I Don't think that things are sustainable Because income growth because lack of Savings because of credit card Delinquencies because the price Appreciation in three years now I Understand the bull narrative the Bullish narrative is is the inflation's Cooked into the prices things will Stabilize and the consumers will be able To afford it I just don't understand how Consumers are going to be able to afford It if things are going to keep going up We haven't even paid for our past sins Now I could be wrong it is what it is But I don't think so you guys I'm going Out of my way I'm trying to do the best I can to be completely transparent and Honest about my opinion I'm linking all Of the data but I'm also giving you guys A free home buying class so if you must Buy right now at least you're not going To be like one of these buyers with the Fear of missing out that are ruining Everything for the rest of us if we can Remain strong buyers we will help America it's the foolish buyers top with The greed corruption and fraud that are Hurting us so please you guys be a Strong buyer it's only going to help you And the rest of the nation now other
Than that guys if you're out there Investing in real estate you guys Already know I wish you luck and I hope You win
