For decades Iran has interfered with Maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf Region using C mines speedboats Helicopters and other military means for Political reasons around a quarter of The world's oil Market goes through this Strategically important economic artery Over the last several weeks we have seen Height intentions in the Persian Gulf There are cyber attacks on these ships The Iranians have been known to turn off Their tracking devices on their ships Which is illegal and extremely dangerous And then they're actually impounding the Ships the most recent incident involves Three tankers seized by Iran over the Course of several weeks this is Definitely more of an escalation rather Than a negotiation Iran alleges that one Tanker had hit another vessel something Disputed by Maritime tracking data that Showed no such incident Iran has said The other two tankers were seized over Ownership disputes so what's going on Behind the scenes with this is that as We know Iran oil is sanctioned and so They are not permitted to be selling Their oil on the global market and so The United States is actually patrolling The waters for oil that's being Illegally sold there's these shifting Dynamics in which Iran has been Upstarting its malign activities again And it's going to disrupt not just our
Global economy but our Maritime security And awareness the U.S also seized a Tanker recently accused of transporting Iranian oil the United States seized the Tanker containing Iranian oil because It's breaking the sanctions the Strait Of Hormuz is a 21 Mile wide choke point That ships encounter before entering the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea from The Persian Gulf which itself is a Critical artery for Energy Products Worldwide the U.S Navy's fifth Fleet Headquartered in Bahrain is responsible For maintaining a secure environment for The U.S allies and partners in the Region what's truly problematic about This is if the Iranian malignant Activity Rises to a certain level Insurers will stop insuring these Vessels coming in and out of the gulf And that's going to be extremely Disruptive for International Energy Markets Iran has threatened to close the Strait in the event of a conflict which Could Rock the global economy with the Shadow War being fought between Iran and The us over sanctions related to the Iranian nuclear program could Maritime Traffic in the Gulf get caught in the Crossfire Foreign Carter laid out what is referred to as The Carter Doctrine in his State of the Union Address that year which is that
The United States will guarantee the Free flow of energy out of the gulf After USS Samuel B Roberts hit the mine President Reagan ordered U.S forces to Strike back in the late 1980s the U.S Fought a brief but violent battle over Iran mining the Persian Gulf during the Iran-iraq war they must know that we Will protect our ships and if they Threaten us they'll pay a price in the Decades since Iran has invested heavily In speed boats sea mines drones and Missiles in an effort to offset the U.S Technological advantage in the region Over the last several weeks we have seen An increase in the tensions in the Persian Gulf very reminiscent if you Will of what happened in the 1980s and As a result we are seeing what we saw in The 1980s where the U.S Navy has now Announced that they are going to be be Patrolling the waters even more closely To make sure that the flow of oil is Secure close to 20 million barrels of Crude oil per day go through the street Of formuz and Iran is the origin point For around 1.2 million barrels by itself Where this Iranian oil ends up can be Murky but private analysts estimate that A large volume is ending up in China Despite a lack of corresponding Customs Data at the start of the maximum Pressure Campaign which saw the Trump Administration Levy heavy sanctions on
Iran in an attempt to get a new nuclear Deal Iran saw its GDP growth dropped to Negative 1.8 percent in 2018. by 2022 Iran had a growth rate of 2.8 percent Which was still a far cry from the 2016 High of 8.8 percent Foreign Commodities to Transit the gulf is oil And the long-term disruption to the Crude Supply could have a devastating Impact on global trade even with U.S Energy production in a much better Position than it was in the 1980s the United States is no longer a supplicant To the gulf for imports we are one of The world's big three energy producers Along with Russia and Saudi Arabia so We're in a completely different posture And in a way this is an opportunity for Us to review you know what we are Putting into security for the gulf and Why we're doing it when their lead Export Market is now China not the United States the reason why they're Escalating now is because of the impact Of the sanctions despite sanctions Iranian oil still is in high demand Which presents both targets for U.S Enforcement but also opportunity for Iran to get much needed hard currency to Support their crippled economy The Trump Administration in an effort to Get more concessions out of Iran over Their nuclear program enacted what was
Known as the maximum pressure campaign This included a variety of economic Sanctions and other methods to compel Iran back to the table these tanker Seizures whether this is a sheer Coincidence or not is happening around The time that we have just passed the Five-year anniversary of the Trump Administration withdrawing from the Nuclear deal I think the timing of this Is very compelling in that Iran is Trying to first and foremost preserve Its regime and by doing so they want to Continue trying to advance their nuclear Weapons program the failure to forge a New nuclear deal has left a dark cloud Over U.S Iranian relations and now that There are reports of Iranian nuclear Enrichment nearing what is known as the Breakout stage where the country would Be in a position to rapidly develop a Nuclear weapon things are getting even More complicated getting back in some Version of the obama-era nuclear deal Has been a top priority for President Biden and they've tried mightily to Reason with both the Iranians and the Russians through the negotiations in Geneva I for one am somewhat skeptical That you could reason with either either Party but they've tried and certainly They're very permissive attitude toward Both the shipping harassment and the the Sanctions busting smuggling I think has
Been part of their effort to to keep the Iranians engaged and also quite frankly To try to keep Energy prices down here In the United States When important Maritime regions become Difficult to navigate it can impact Trade globally I would say I would not Be that worried because China is getting Their oil from Iran and so when you have A very large country buying up this oil It is not in the best interest for Iran To shut down the Strait of Hormuz Abraham Accords caucus members they have Actually introduced a bill called The Maritime act to the floor to hopefully Get something going from our from the Congressional side of things U.S has announced that it's moving more Forces into the region to reinforce the Fifth Fleet we have the fifth Fleet one Of our largest naval installations at Manama which is the capital of Bahrain However what comes next depends entirely On what happens in the Gulf I think we Need to review our strategy for them but But having them there is extremely Useful but at the same time when you do Beef up your presence you increase your Size as a Target Um and with the Iranians feeling quite Emboldened now one has to worry about The possibility that they will lash out On a larger scale
