Chris something you mentioned in your Research in the last couple of weeks you Said the bear Market was over and I have To say up front you didn't say a rip Roaring bull market was about to begin But you said the bear Market was over How does your Equity Market compete with A five percent six month T Bill a Two-year at 490 a ten year at four Percent Yeah that it's very difficult to compete At this point you have real if you look At the front end of the curve and you Tack on some sort of IG or high yield Spread that's a pretty competitive rate Of return and so we're not all pulled up At this point in time the reason for the Nodes saying the bear Market was over is You really shouldn't trade this like a Bear Market you shouldn't expect the Wheels to fall off the car you shouldn't Be afraid to trade this Market don't Expect things to just collapse that's Not true the underlying fundamentals are Good enough the credit markets are Strong enough and if you find good risk Awards that's where you want to place Your emphasis but this is not the Grateful Market the beginning of the Grateful Market what this is is finding Really good risk rewards someone that is On the front end of the the rate curve Some of that is in mid-cap growth and And some of that is overseas Minneapolis
Fed president Neil cascari said to me It's much more important what we signal With the so-called Dot Plot not whether We go 25 or 50. Chris when they sit down At this fed meeting later this month They're going to have one extra payrolls Report March 10th an extra CPI report March 14th you need to see both those Things before you can draw any Conclusions on what you can expect from The FED later this month I I think the FED has been very clear They want to get to five percent maybe a Little bit more than five percent then They want to wait right if that Narrative changes I think they take a Hit to credibility some of that data has Come in a bit stronger Um in recent weeks but earlier this year Some of the data came in a bit weaker And that's what you should expect right The data should be mixed I don't think There's enough in the data to there's a Lot of talk about how can they go 50. I Don't think they need to what they need To do is exactly what they're saying get To in around five percent wait and you Know as any Economist will tell you There's long and variable lags to Monetary policy and all these other Issues inflation is slowly coming down But gradually right and so now the Question is how long can you wait we're In a good situation where the economy
Has not cracked right but you've taken Speculation on the market inflation is Slowly coming down you're normalizing Rates and you're in a pretty good spot So you really don't have to rock the Boat just continue to do what along your Narrative what you're talking about that Five percent level in around that five Percent level and then wait and again The data I think will be mixed going Forward it's not going to be one-sided And ultimately we're going to get to a Lower level of inflation but two percent I think it's much more aspirational than Anything else
