Despite the fact that we're right now in The spring home buying season existing Home sales in April both decreased from The previous month and from one year ago This decline is quite remarkable given The fact that housing inventory this April is at the highest level since October of 2022 in other words an 18month high Meanwhile home prices increased by 6% From a year ago but those gains may be Losing momentum due to the rise in rates And inventory levels this is based on a Brand new report and in today's video I'm going to share all the details and By the way before we get started if you Guys want a real estate agent referral Check out my website which is real Estate tefer decom also this video took Me probably six hours to make uh because I'm going to share my own analysis of Nars data so if you guys get any value Of today's video then please hit like Button I great appreciate that of course I appreciate you uh let's begin today's Video because of course I have a lot to Share here so here's the article from The National Association rors just Posted today which is May 22nd it says Existing home sales receded in April This is based on a report that looks at Existing houses in other words excluding Brand new home construction or brand new Houses all four major regions in the us
Posted month ormon decreases in contrast Compared to one year ago sales decrease In the Northeast the Midwest and the South but Rose in the west also According to nar's uh Chief Economist Lawrence Yume he had this to say home Sales change little overall but the Upper end of the market especially Houses over $1 million is experiencing a Sizable gain due to more Supply coming Into the marketplace or the market um I'll have some news to sh to share Regarding that because for the past Several months we we've been seeing a Huge increase in sales for over $1 Million and decreases in sales for less Than you know $250,000 or less than $400,000 so because of this mix in sales This is uh impacting the overall median Sale price it's not the only reason why Prices are increasing but it is Impacting the overall uh Trends I'm Going to share in today's video so Here's a chart I pulled from nar's Website regarding existing home sales And these figures by the way are Seasonally adjusted and also analyzed as Well so for April there is 4,140 sales that's down 1.9% from the Previous month and down 1.9% from April Of 2023 and we did see decreases on a Month-to-month basis for all four major Regions that's the Northeast the Midwest
The South and the West in contrast the Only region that posted a gain Year-over-year was the West increasing By 1.3 3% also looking at non season Ingested numbers these are actual number Of home sales each and every month we Tend to have around uh 300,000 um home Sales each and every month on average um So so far this year we are um at 1.19 Million sales that's January through April this year and I did some digging For you guys because I looked at um Sales figures you know the actual number Of home sales January through April of 2023 and last year this time we were at 1.96 million so just under 1.2 million Sales uh at this time last year this Year we're at 1.19 million so the Current sales Pace this year is actually Less than last year which is Mindboggling given the fact that overall For the year as in 2023 we were at a 28-year low in home Sales if you look for the entire year so The current um Pace right now for home Sales January through April is actually Slower than 2023 so big picture we're More or less on track to see a very low Level of home sales this year all right Let's get a little bit nerdy here Because here's my um analysis of Nars Data regarding home sales the two Columns I pulled from the website is a Date and the seasonally adjusted
Analyzed rate of home sales everything Else is based on my own analysis anyways For April Uh close home sales uh this month were Mostly for purchase contract signed in Other words offers being accepted Between buyers and sellers in February When rates or average 30-year fix rates Were at 6.78% and March when rates increased to 6.82% I mentioning that because ever Since then average 30-year fix rates Have been hovering around 7% so that Will likely limit the number of close Home sales in the near term and keep in Mind we're at very low levels already so Uh you I I'll definitely get you posted With latest developments on that here's Something worth noting as well is that 4.14 million the current sales Pace at Least for April that was actually less Than what was forecasted the forecast Was at 4.21 million sales this is also the Slowest pace of home sale since January This year so for example back in January We're at 4 million sales now we're just Over 4.1 million on top of that like I Mentioned we're at extremely low levels In sales this year uh we're only about 290,000 Higher compared to the 13-year low that Was set back in October last year October we had just under 3.9 million
Home sales again that was a 13-year low And now we're only about $290,000 or 290,000 More than the trough of October last Year in regards to the month-to-month Decrease down by 1.9% this marks a second consecutive Month-to-month decrease quite the Difference compared to the gains we saw In January and February so for example Back in January we saw a gain of 3.1 February sales AB skyrocketed up by 99.5% compared to January now it's down By 1.9% uh the second consecutive monthly Decrease in my personal opinion sales Are likely decreasing due to 7% mortgage Rates and of course due to a low level Of housing affordability also inventory Rose from the previous month and from 12 Months ago uh but despite the gains of The number of hous for sale sales still Decrease from last month and from one Year ago and more than that here in a Little bit in regards to the decrease of 1.9% year-over-year this marks the Third Consecutive month in which sales have Decreased uh compared to 1 year ago but Not nearly as bad compared to 1 year ago Back in April of 2023 sales taint by 24.2% now they have decreased by 1.9% from 2023 having said that this marks the 33rd consecutive month in which sales
Were flat or down year-over-year in Other words we're approaching three Years of of decreases in fact the last Time sales increase year year was way Back in July of 2021 and by the way the National Association rors looks at sales Of single family houses Town Homes Condos and co-ops and that's the um the Housing types uh that are tracked in Their monthly data here um I also added This as well um sales have decreased by 22% from April of 2019 so compared to pre-co levels we're Down by 22% also compared to the you know the 13-year high or 15-year High we saw in 2021 for the year as a whole were're Down by 31% from April of 2021 going back to this chart from the National Association rors let's look at Inventory levels and also compare my um Own analysis of their data here so for The month of April there was 1.21 million houses ver sale um in my Opinion this uh figure here includes Pending home sales and houses actually For sale because this number at 1.2 Million is far higher compared to r.com And alos research.com Anyways inventory increased by 9% Compared to the previous month and also Increased by 16.3% year-over-year also the month Supply right now is at 3.5 months the
Highest levels going back to November of 2023 up by 99.4% compared to March and Up by whopping 177% year-year but wait There's more because I want to provide Some additional analysis uh besides just Looking at year-over-year and month to Month changes so at 1, 210,000 houses for sale and also Including some pending home sales this Is the highest amount since October of 2022 now keep in mind these figures Regarding the month supply and inventory Is not seasonally adjusted and inventory Tends to peak in the late spring and Early summer months each and every year So when looking at previous April levels 1.21 million houses for sale is the Highest April total looking at April of 2020 in other words this is a 4-year High for the month of April at 1.21 Million so big picture here looking at All months this the highest levels going Back to October of 2022 however going back to the month of April looking at previous levels the Highest levels since April of 2020 and Like I mentioned uh the month supply is At 3.5 months uh the highest Supply Levels since November of 2023 it's also nearly double that from April of 2022 so for example ex Le April of 2022 The month supply was only 2.3 months but Again looking at inventory levels at 1.2
Million uh that's the highest uh number Since October of 2022 one more thing I Do want to mention regarding the month Supply is at 3.5 months this is still Lower than the around a 4mon supply that We saw back in April 2017 18 and 2019 so In other words even is rising uh but We're still well below uh preco levels Now here's something I added in today's Video which is different compared to my Previous videos I make for you guys Regarding this and this is something I've been um talking about when um Discussing realtor.com uh data so I Actually want to look at uh not only the Month-to-month change uh the year- ofe Change but also the year toate change This is a change in inventory levels From January through April this year a Giant increase of 20% so so far this year inventory has Increased by 20% when looking at Previous years uh this is on par with What we saw back in 2022 but faster than the same time frame In 2017 through 2019 so a 20% gain so far this year last Year only increase of 6% 2022 a gain of 21% looking at preco levels so which is Right here 2019 January through April 2019 it Increased by 15% 2018 18% and 2017 up by 14% so the growth rate is higher Compared to the previous year and
Previous month but also the growth rate Is rising faster when looking at pre Pandemic levels so in other words big Picture inventory is growing and Increasing at a faster Pace compared to Years past this should limit home price Growth unless keywords there unless Mortgage rates fall greatly or inventory Starts decreasing now speaking of home Prices let's change gears and talk about The US Medan home sold price because That is at $47,500 uh this April that's up by 5.7% from April of 2023 Now every housing Market's different Right uh home prices increase the most In the west up by 9.3% year-over year after that was the Northeast increasing by 8.5 the Midwest saw a gain of 6% whereas A South increased by 3.7% in regards to um home prices I have A lot more to share regarding that Here's my own analysis of Nars data Again these two columns is what I pulled From the website everything else is my Own analysis anyways for April again We're at uh just under $48,000 that's up by 3.7% from the Previous month and up by 5.7% from 12 months ago April's median Sale price of $ 47,600 is the highest April levels on Record it still is below levels compared
To the record highs that was set back in 2022 though when looking at any months This is the highest home prices we've Seen going back to June of 2023 at that time we're at $410,000 and I mention that because uh These figures are not seasonally Adjusted like I mentioned alltime record Highs were set back in June of 20122 the trough was back in January of 2023 uh that was more or less a low Point in our housing market looking at Preco levels uh so um prices corrected Or decreased by 133% % from June 2022 Compared to January of 2023 ever since then though prices have Increased by 133% so therefore looking at April's Prices compared to June of 2022 we're only down by 1% so we're only Down by 1% compared to the all-time Record highs said two years ago so we We're only about $6,200 less than and the all-time record Highs of 2022 okay let's look at the Month-to-month changes and the year- ofe Change how that compares to years past So this uh gain of 3.7% compared to March is actually the third consecutive Monthly gain which is seasonal right Home prices tend to increase during the Spring home buying season uh this is Also higher than the 2.8% gain we saw
From March to April in 20 23 now we're Up by 3.7% uh that increase by the way is Slightly higher than the long run Average going back to 2010 based on my nerdy Excel formula There the average march to April change Going back to 2010 is an increase of 3.3% whereas this year we're up by 3.7% also when looking at the Year-over-year change up by 5.7% this marks the 10th consecutive Month of year- ofe Increases also at this time in 2023 home prices were down Year-over-year that was only the second Time since 2012 in which home prices decreased Compared to one year ago the first time Was back in March the previous month of 2023 so quite a turnaround uh to say the Least last year down by 2.5 now we're up By 5.7% However this is actually lower than the Long run average because the long run Average going back to 2010 based on minority Excel formula There is up by 6.4 this year a gain of 5.7% like I mentioned right here I'll Share this here in a little bit uh the Gains in home prices compared to one Year ago is impacted not solely the Reason but is impacted by the mix in Sales more home sales in the range of
You know $ 750 to over $1 million Whereas sales in the lower range of the Market not increasing the same rates so The mix and sales impacting the Year-year changes in prices overall Let's also discuss the changes over the Past uh several years and uh the Medan So price we're up by 3% from two years Ago up by 18% from 2021 um prices have increased by 42% Since April of 2020 and we're looking at Um pre- pandemic levels we're up by 53% and just for fun the changes in Prices from April 2008 through April 2009 fell by 177% whereas this year it increased by 5.7% in regards to my comment saying That uh the increase compared to 12 Months ago in home prices is impacted by The mix and sales at least to some Extent so here's a really good snapshot Looking at the percent change in sales From 12 months ago by price range the Biggest increase or the biggest yeah the Biggest gain uh year-over-year are Houses that sold for over $1 million up By nearly 40% in the range of 750 to 1 million up By nearly 24% 500,000 to 750 up by 177% whereas home sales in the range of 250 to 500 Only increased by 7.6 and of course uh sales less than $100,000 decreasing by 7% so the biggest
Gains for these price segments is over $1 million big big increases for over 750,000 as well so here's another way to Look at this here's a look at uh the Percent change in sales from 12 months Ago for each of these four major US Regions we're not talking about just one Region in which you know more expensive Houses are selling much more so compared To uh April of 2023 it's really across The board so the West for example sales Over $1 million increased by nearly 42% In the range of 250 to 1 million or that Increased by about 21% in contrast it Decreased for sales for less than $500,000 and in fact looking at all These regions the biggest increases for All these regions were sales for over $1 Million and we're seeing you know barely A gain for houses in the more affordable Range especially in the Northeast for Example in the range of 100,000 to 250 Down 7.8% whereas sales over 750 and Over $1 million absolutely surging I did Some digging for you guys as well Because this is a common Trend we're Seeing um so far this year so looking at March of 2024 uh the report from about a month Ago you can see this big gain in sales For over $1 million up by 14% in the Range of 750 to $1 million increasing by 5% all other price segments here Decrease from one year ago on top of
That look at February February two Months ago the report look at this giant Increase of 36.8% for over $1 million in the range Of 750 to 1 million increasing by 23.3% In contrast sales for less than 250,000 fell year-over year this uh February so I mention that because um Again this is not the only reason why Home prices have been increasing but Because we're seeing more sales in the Upper range of the market and less sales In the lower range this is also Impacting um home prices overall uh Nationwide and again when I'm talking About home prices I'm talking about the Meeting so price Nationwide going back To nar's report before I wrap this video Up let's talk about days in the market Because days in the market um this April Was at 26 days again this is a time Frame when you list your house for sale Until you accept an offer from home Buyer uh that is at 26 days this April Down from 33 days uh in March and up From 22 days in April of 2023 so houses On average selling for about four days Longer uh compared to 12 months ago Based on this monthly survey first-time Home buyers um purchase 33% of all home Sales this April up from 32% in March And up from 29% from April of 2023 all cash sales were at about 28% of All transactions this April identical to
March and from a year ago in regards to Investor purchases or second home buyers Uh they purchase 16% of all houses in April up from 15% in March and but down From the 177% from April of 20123 uh also distress home sales which Of course are defined by foreclosures or Short sales is virtually non-existent at Only 2% unchanged from last month and From the prior year with that said Please comment below your biggest Takeaways from today's video also if you Guys got any value out of this video Whatsoever then please hit the like Button I great appreciate that of course I appreciate you uh again if you guys Want a real estate agent referral Nationwide check out my website which is Real estate TEF finder.com hope you guys Have an awesome day and we'll look we Look forward to seeing you on the next Video He [Music]
