What a wild housing market we have right Now so for example on National level Asking prices of newly listed houses is Down compared to one year ago on top of That housing inventory just increased by More than 30% from the same time frame One year ago but on top of that we have A fiveyear high regarding the share of Price deductions right now during this Same time frame a lot of interesting Trends happening right now and let's Discuss this is based on my own analysis Of rcom's data um because of course I'm A nerd so here's our um article just Posted last Thursday uh they actually Post um a great update well I actually Don't I don't even read it but U they Provide um data on a weekly basis which I enjoy because I like analyzing their Data so again I didn't read their um Article here instead I go to uh Realor.com Researchdata click on weekly inventory And click on this this link right here And it takes you more or less to this Information so in today's video I'll Provide an update regarding asking Prices of newly listed houses um Inventory numbers new listings days in The market and of course price Reductions as well if you guys get any Value of today's video of course please Hit the like button also you guys can Share any of my videos onto your social
Media as well so in any case let's go Ahead and Dive Right In let's talk about Asking prices because that actually Decreased by .5% % from 12 months ago um Keep in mind again this is a small Decrease but last week we were down by 1.1% uh year-over aye that was the Biggest decrease going back to the year Of 2017 so this week it decreased by 05% so Now asking prices overall on a national Level um have been flat or negative Year-over-year for the past 9 weeks so It's possible we're seeing more home Buyers waiting on the side lines due to The increase in prices and rates and They're waiting for rates and or prices To decrease also we have near record low Housing affordability and of course rise Inventory which is likely stalling price Growth as well speaking of hous Inventory of existing houses that Actually increased by 33.3% last week uh compared to 12 months Ago that was the biggest year viw Increase since April of 2023 There's been more House of sale this Year compared to last year for the past 25 consecutive weeks that goes back all The way until uh mid November last year This rise of Supply is obviously causing More options for home buyers which of Course limits home price growth um also Inventory has been on the rise uh due to
Two main reasons an increase of the Amount of houses being listed for sale Which I'll share with you guys here in a Little bit but also due to decreasing Demand uh because we're seeing pending Home sales down on a year-year basis Also looking at redin um for example the Amount of pening home sales uh over the Previous four weeks is at least a Three-year low during the same time Frame as well let's also discuss um the Inventory numbers according to alus Research.com so uh this last week for The week ended um May 3rd there was Approximately 560,000 existing houses Ver sale one year ago we had Approximately 420,000 so by my uh dumb math that's a 33% increase in the amount of houses for Sale on a national level in addition There's 61,000 more houses for sale Right now compared to the start this Year uh that's a 12% growth rate so far This year compare this to last year Entirely different Market because Inventory was decreasing from January uh Until mid um April so for example uh During the same time frame last year Inventory decreased by 11% whereas this Year we're up by 12% in other words Supply was falling from January through April last year but this year it's Actually increasing something worth Noting here as well is that we have
Approximately 38% um fewer House of sale compared the Same time frame in 2019 though here's a Look at alus research.com regarding Inventory over the past 5 years so so Right now there's around uh 560,000 Existing houses of for sale and this is A three-year High during the same time Frame of course what was it uh 33% Higher compared to a year ago but way Higher compared to 2022 uh when we had about 301,000 houses For sale and also way higher compared to 21 we're still below levels in 2020 at around 731 th000 and of course Below levels in 2019 when we had Approximately 97,000 houses for sale all right going Back to my own analysis of real turcom Data let's have a look at the um changes In the number of houses being listed for Sale in other words new listings Increased by 10.4% uh compared to 12 months ago so Excluding the Easter holiday week which Was about 1 month ago new listings have Been higher during the same time frame Last year for the past 20 7 weeks in a Row in my personal opinion this is one Of the main reasons why inventory has Been rising but also due to a pullback In home bin demanda as well let's change Gears uh slightly here and talk about How fast or how slow houses are selling
So last week it took one day slower to Sell house compared to 12 months ago um The last time houses took longer to sell Was way back in September of 2023 Before that houses took faster or sold Faster uh or the same length for the Previous 33 consecutive weeks a friendly Reminder regarding this metric regarding Days in the market this is based on a Closed home sale therefore it's a Lagging indicator of our US housing Market now speaking of a leading Indication of our housing market the Increase in the number of reduced price Listings just Rose by 50.1% so we have a approximately 50% More price reductions right now compared To a year ago we've also had 14 Consecutive weeks of year your gains as Well the reason why we're seeing more Price reductions right now is due to two Main reasons in my opinion number one Hous inventory has been rising which of Course when we have more houses for sale Up by about 33% this means home buyers Have more options overall uh in order to Choose from and therefore home sellers Have to compete against each other and Therefore lower their asking prices if They can't get a buyer and number two From home buyers sitting on the Sidelines due to 7% mortgage rates now Speaking of price deductions let's have A look at the share of price deductions
According to alos research.com for the Week ended May 3rd it's at 33% so this means out of all the houses For sale right now 33% or about a Onethird um have reduced their asking Prices already this is at least a Five-year High because this is much Higher compared to year ago at 29% and Also 33% right now is way higher Compared to 22 when the share price Drops was at 20% and of course uh a lot Higher compared to 21 at nearly 16% and 21 at 14% and looking at preco levels The share price shops only at 30% so Therefore the share price drops right Now at 33% is at least a 5-year High During the same time frame now having Said that we're not nearly as high Compared to the peak which was back in November of 2022 when at that time the share price Drops was at 43% what I will say though is that this Trend obviously is impacted by Seasonality because the peak regarding The share price drops uh typically Occurs in October November and December As you can see for each of these years Now having said that I do not anticipate We'll see this rapid rise of the share Price drops like we saw in 2022 because During that time the home buyer demand Absolutely plummeted due to rates more Than doubling in less than um 12 months
And of course um inventory also doubling In about 6 months as well so we're not Experiencing those same Dynamics we had In 2022 therefore I don't anticipate That share price drops to double uh from May to November like it did in 2022 however we're still at um elevated Levels right now so of course I'll Definitely keep it posted with the Latest developments on that all right Let's uh change here um slightly here And talk about a summary of today's Video because of course that was a lot Of information to throw at you guys and Of course if you guys are still watching Today's video then please the like Button and of course I appreciate you Guys so much uh number one the national Meeting asking price has gone down in Four at the past 5 weeks uh again that's A leading indication of future close Home sales and of course close home Prices uh this is likely due to an Increase of housing inventory more price Reductions and of course elevated rates As well number two hous inventory has Increased by about 33% last week the Biggest annual increase since April of 2023 this is likely from blackluster Home bin demand and a significant rise In the number of newly listed houses but Even though the number of new listings Have been on the rise they're still Approximately 39% fewer compared to the
Same time frame in 2019 number three Average 30-year fix rates um have Decreased by about 80 basis points from October uh the daily rate according to The mortgage News Daily is around 7.25% right now um back in October of 2023 the peak was around 8% so rates have decreased by about 80 Basis points compared to the peak last Year but because approximately 89% of People who have a mortgage on their House have an interest rate below 6% That's Based on data from redin that has Been limiting the amount of people Listing their houses for sale and thus Keeping housing inventory well below 29's levels also we do not need Inventory to increase to preco levels North SE home prices decrease and that's Exactly what we saw in 2022 uh inventory did not even get close To 2018 2019s levels but home prices of Course corrected in the last last half Of that year number four the share price Deductions is at least a 5-year High During the same time frame but it's Still well below the peak that was set Back in late 2022 uh number five houses took one day Longer to sell on average last week the Last time housa took longer to sell from One year ago was way back in September Of 2023 so what are some potential huge
Changes ahead of course I am not a real Estate market fortune teller number one Average 30-year fixed rates um have Increased by about 75 basis points Compared to one year ago so even though We have come down from the peak that was Set in late October last year when Comparing average mortgage rates for People with great credit um compared to A year ago we're still up um from those Levels so because rates have increased By about 75 basis points compared to Early May of 2023 that causes approximately or nearly A 10% decrease in buyers purchasing Power and on top of that according to Redin last week we are very very close To all-time record lows for housing Affordability due to the increase in Rates of course the increase in prices Now speaking of a lack of housing Affordability it's still a huge hurdle For home buyers uh especially compared To the past several years um home prices Have gone up by about 40% and of course Mortgage rates have more than doubled um As well number three early signs of home Buying demand have been absolutely all Over the place this year based on the Most recent data we have from the MBA That was posted last Wednesday they Reported that the amount of people who Are submitting loan applications by Houses uh of existing houses decrease by
14% um year-over-year Also the National Association rors Reported that pending home sales this March were flat compared to March 20123 it remains very close to all-time Record lows in STK contrast new home Construction sales which is a measure of A contract being signed between a home Buyer and home builder increase by 8% During that same time frame home Builders are offering closing cost Credits another Builder or free Builder Upgrades which is enticing home buyers To buy brand new houses also it appears Our housing market is highly rate Dependent so of course the data coming In is ever changing and of course the Data I'm sharing in today's video is on A national level and real estate is Local so the data I'm sharing today's Video may not pertain to your neck of The wood number four the direction of The US housing market in my opinion will Depend on the unemployment rate mortgage Rates inventory and of course the Balance between supply and demand number Five the most important one I appreciate You guys so much for watching today's Video of course for supporting my YouTube channel I love doing these Videos but of course they're a lot of Work but I do enjoy them if you guys are Still watching today's video I Appreciate you like And subscribe and
We'll see you on the next video have an Awesome day The [Music]
