Welcome back the number of people Submitting mortgage applications Increased to a five-week high given the Fact that rates overall have been Decreasing however though the amount of People submitting loan applications Still Remains at extremely low levels in Today's video I'll share this brand new Report uh from the MBA but also have an Update for you guys regarding uh Mortgage rates today as well because uh There's some very big changes to say at Leas here with that said let's begin Today's video and also if you guys are New here I invite you to subscribe this Channel right now because I post Frequent housing market updates so you Guys can be more informed about our US Housing market and of course with that Said I appreciate you and let's begin Today's video so this first report I Want to share with you guys was just Announced today which is November 15th Here uh this is actually from the MBA They look at applications overall for Refi but also for purchases as well this Covers around 75% of all applications For Home Loans so mortgage applications Increased by 2.8% uh compared to one week ago this Report covers the week ended November 10th this year so they look at the refi Index as well as the seasonally adjusted Purchase index so the refi index
Increased by 2% from last week and also It was 7% higher Compared to 12 months ago uh meanwhile The seasonally adjusted purchase index a Measure of the amount of people Submitting loan applications to buy Houses uh increased 3% from one week Earlier it Still Remains 12% lower Compared to 12 months ago and I'll have Some some data sh how the levels right Now compares to years past going back to The year of 1995 according to Joel KH Who who is the NBA's vice president and Deputy chief Economist he stay the Following although treasury rates dipped Midweek uh mortgage rates were little Change on average for the whole week That was last week the third-year fix Rate remained at 7.61% about 30 basis points lower than Three weeks ago he says both purchase And refinance applications increased to The highest weekly pace in five weeks But of course remains at very low levels So based on my analysis of their data Here uh except for the previous week the Purchase index hasn't been the slow Since February of 1995 so in other words the amount of People submitting applications to buy Houses is very close to a 20 nyear low Also when looking at levels back in late 2019 we're down by about 50% as well and According to Joel con despite the recent
Downward Trend uh rates at the current Levels are still challenging for many Perspective home buyers and current Homeowners so have a look at this Because here's a look at their uh Purchase index uh over the past 5 years So their Index right now is 129 the previous week was at Uh 25.2 so when looking at pre-pandemic Levels back in 2019 uh back then the index was around Uh 260 now it's about 50% below current Levels also when looking at the change In the index going back to the year of 1995 the index right now except for the Previous week is on par with the lowest Levels going back to the end of February Of 1995 so in other words we have very low Levels of of uh people submitting loan Applications right now due to Historically low levels of existing Houses for sale but also due the fact That home prices and of course mortgage Rates still remain very much elevated Right now now going back to the MBA Report here here's something that really Uh shocked me as well because the share Of refinance applications is at 31.9% an increase from the previous week At 31.4%
So three every 10 applications for Home Loans is for a refi which is absolutely Crazy because we're very close to Multi-decade highs for rates on top of That as I reported to you guys about a Week ago approximately 90% of people Doing a refinance right now are doing a Cash out refinance and getting a higher Rate which is abnormal Because normally when people do a refy The are getting uh they could be getting Cash out but for the most part people Doing a refinance are getting a lower Rate otherwise what's the point of doing A refi so the reason why people are Doing cash out refinances right now is Due to um Financial hardships and of Course our uh softening of our labor Market we're seeing right now the MBA Also reported here that the arm share of Activity decreased to 8.8% of all applications the reason why This number has been uh relatively High Over the past couple weeks here though Is because the spread between a 30 year Fix rate uh mortgage and a 51 arm for Example in which your uh rate is fixed For 5 years then it becomes variable Thereafter a more risky loan product is Because the spread has been uh growing Here um so right now at least for last Week the average 30-year fix for loan Balances less than 7 $126,200 was at 7.61% for a 51 arm though it's only at
6.65% so some people are are moving to Get an adjustable rate mortgage because Of course the interest rate is quite a Bit lower compared to a 30-year fix now Speaking of rates here's the average Rate uh today which again is November 15th for people with great credit According to inves aia.com for the Average 30-year fix that's at 7.77% now something to keep in mind is The average rate for people doing a Refinance is actually quite a bit higher So 7.77% for a purchase overall again for People with great credit a FICO score Over 700 and of course a loan to value Ratio of at least 80% so if you're Buying a house you're putting down at Least 20% down Uh compare this to uh rates for Refinance though that's at 8.16% also when looking at Daily rates According to the uh mortgage News Daily That's at 7.45% an increase of five basis points Compared to yesterday despite a new Inflation report that showed inflation For producers came in cooler than what Was expected and I'll share that with You guys here in a little bit uh jumbo Is at 7.84% fa ha and VA is around uh 6.77% uh one year ago we were looking at A 30-year fix at 6 uh
61% this means that average rates have Increased by about 84 basis points Compared to 12 months ago now the reason Why rates uh increased today is a little Bit mixed or I should say based on mixed News regarding our US economy here so Here's a look at the uh us treasury note That increased by about nine basis Points today to about uh 4.53% um as a CNBC report here uh Treasury yields increase that Rise of Nine basis points um despite another Report that shows inflation is actually Falling so on what was it on Tuesday the CPI or the consumer uh price index a key Measure of inflation that the FED looks At uh came in much cooler than what was Forecasted now here's what happened Today as well because the producer price Index or the uh PPI also came in lower Than what was forecasted as well so Inflation is coming down on the consumer Side the CPI but also based on inflation That producers are paying as well so Core um PPI which excludes uh volatile Energy and food prices on a Month-to-month basis was flat the Forecast was a gain of 3% and also in uh September we saw a gain of. 2% also when Looking at the uh rate compared to one Year ago we saw an increase of 2.4% versus the forecast of 2.7% also in September the rate was at 2.7% so a core PPI U month to month as
Well as year ofe came in below Expectations but also below September's Levels as well meanwhile headline PPI Which includes volatile uh gas and food Prices uh decreased by 0.5% compared to September the forecast Was an increase of. 1% and also in September we saw a gain of. 4% so this Decrease of 05% uh was uh catching people by Surprise here because that was the Biggest monthly decrease since April of 2020 headline PPI also came in below Expectations on a year-over-year basis And also below September's levels as Well like I mentioned despite this uh Cooler than expected uh inflation report Here um treasury yields actually Increased today which caused U mortgage Rates to increase one of the reasons why We could have seen uh yields increase Today is due to this right here so Retail sales on a national level Increased by .1% the forecast was a decrease of. 2% uh so it came in um higher than what Was forecast year that by the way I Should said was core retail sales which Excludes automobile sales here that Increased by .1% in contrast when Looking at retail sales including Auto Sales that decreased by. 1% the forecast Was a decrease of. 3% on top of that Retail sales excluding gas in Autos Rose
By .1% uh the forecast was flat so it came In above expectations as well so big Picture here it appears that investors Kind of shrugged off uh this cooler than What was expected uh PPI report uh Because retail sales came in stronger Than was forecasted um Nation wide here So please leave a comment below with Your biggest takeaways from today's Video also if you guys got any value out This video whatsoever then please hit The like button of course appreciate That of course I appreciate you hope you Guys have an awesome day like And Subscribe and we'll see you on the next Video
