Can see in 2013 you can see in 2017 and Also in Q4 of 2021 history is repeating At least according to Quant analyst Ben Cowen it seems like the same thing has Happened right it seems like history has In fact repeated itself two years ago he Predicted everything and so you can kind Of see that a lot of this pattern has Been playing out today we welcome Ben Back to share with us what comes next You say his is repeating could you Explain this more send this video to one Friend make sure you watch the whole Interview it feels like this time is Different I think the bigger story next Year and for a limited time only if you Want access to Ben's ITC quantitative Market analysis charts and indicators The exact same charts Ben uses to Predict these things we're offering you 10% off if you use the affiliate link Below like this video before we jump Into Bitcoin and crypto let's get Ben's Thoughts on macro and the current state Of the economy Benjamin Cowen the US Economy and macro factors will decide How bullish bitcoin's price can climb so Before we jump into Bitcoin how is the US economy right now what are the General macro factors that are Contributing to your thoughts on the Economy and where do you see this going Again before we jump into Bitcoin Sure I think uh the main the two main
Topics to discuss as it relates to um The economy are the unemployment rate And inflation so let me go ahead and Share my screen here so we can take a Look at what's going on so essentially The the two things that the FED is Wrestling with is can they get inflation Back down to their target of 2% and Right now it seems like things are Heading in the right direction inflation Is a headline is at 2.92% and if you zoom in I mean you can See it's slowly going down and it is Summer of the election year we're likely Going to have a rate cut in September my Guess is that it's just going to be a 25 Basis point rate cut 50 basis point rate Cuts are not that common unless the Economy is absolutely falling apart but If you go back and you look at at say Like the 1970s you'll see a very similar Period where inflation fell just below 3% in the summer of the election year And then it started to accelerate again So the FED is going to try to avoid Repeating that right we don't want to See that happen again I don't think any Of us want to go through another wave of Inflation but then on the other end of The spectrum you have could they stay High too high for too long if you go Back to the 1940s we actually saw a Period a brief period of deflation in 1949 because they actually kept you know
They they were too tight for too long so When we talk about you know can the FED Achieve a soft Landing it's basically Can they cut soon enough to avoid Deflation and can they wait long enough To avoid a second wave of inflation the Other thing that they're obviously Trying to balance is of course the Unemployment rate and and the Unemployment rate is starting to move Higher here it seems like it's sort of Intered into a nonlinear phase where It's starting to move up a bit quicker Now given we are still at relatively low Levels for the unemployment rate it's Still only 4.3% in the context of History that's still relatively low and Ultimately this is what the FED sort of Needs to see happen to soften up the Labor market to reduce the pressures on Wage inflation and to actually get Inflation back down to their 2% Target So those are the two things that the Fed's trying to maneuver right now as we Go into the end of the year so it sounds Like you're saying that the economy is Not that bad things are pretty good we Might have a soft landing and if so with The FED uh pivot and rate cuts are you Bullish on the economy in 2025 I think you know it's really a Tough call I mean the the the economy is Is very difficult to to maneuver um and It seems like every month or so we're
Chasing the latest narrative right just A couple of weeks ago the markets Weren't doing so well we had the the Carry trade uh Bank in Japan was raising Rates the Fed was you know the the Markets were pricing in 125 basis points Of rate cuts for the fed my thought Process is that in order for the riskier Assets to start doing better right as You know kind of going back to to sort Of dominance and this sort for that Stuff to start doing better we need to Get to the point where the FED is Willing to loosen up monetary policy and It seems like that it's coming now I Should say though we saw the same thing Happen in 2019 right it does seem like History is repeating itself to some Degree where things got a little bit you Know the the economy started to show Some concerns the FED lowered rates the Crypto markets you know kind of faded at The end of 2019 and then the next year If you ignore the pandemic right I mean That's kind of hard to to predict in any Model but if you ignore that then the Markets did pretty well the following Year so you know I mean I think as as Far as crypto is concerned I think that There will be uh still some some Headwinds ahead for the rest of the year But hopefully by the time they lower They loosen up monetary Policy you know hopefully the signs are
There that there's at least some type of A soft Landing but I mean as always it's You know hard Landings are are possible And they can sometimes happen as we saw In 2020 so you say history is repeating and Bitcoin in 2024 is like Bitcoin in 2019 Could you explain this More yeah I think you know there there's There's two things right there's there's The fouryear cycle which I think all of Us are very familiar with at this point Um where Bitcoin tends to operate under These you know under a fairly Predictable four-year cycle pattern um And and essentially that pattern is Where Bitcoin tops out in Q4 of the post Having year right you can see it was in 2013 You can see in 2017 and also in Q4 of 2021 and every cycle at least well maybe I shouldn't say every but at least the Last two cycles about maybe you know one To two years into the cycle there's this Discussion as to whether we're going to Have a left translated Peak essentially Where a peak comes much earlier in the Cycle than people are thinking and that Discussion became a very hot topic back Over here in March of 2024 this same way It did in June of 2019 you can see that Both rallies were over 300% about 350% Or so and and it made people talk About right a left translated cycle
Where the peak comes a lot sooner but One of the things that you know I've Talked a lot about is that what if the Fouryear cycle is still intact but the Timing of the rate cut part of the cycle And how it affects crypto is just Delayed right so instead of it occurring In the preh having year like it did in 2019 where you had a sort of an a very Quick expansion followed by about six Months of lower highs and lower lows and Then finally broke out of it it seems Like the same thing has happened right It seems like history has in fact Repeated itself where you know a lot of Us get excited and and and people talk About a left translated Peak where Bitcoin's going to go much higher much Sooner than people think and then the Market just sort of Fades for a while And and and people wonder why well I I Think it's playing out in a very very Similar fashion and and you can look at It on on several different scales right Or several different metrics for Instance one of the things that we saw Happen was in 2019 again let's exclude The pandemic crash for a second let's Just say imagine that hard Landing Didn't happen essentially what happened Back then is Bitcoin topped and then it Trended down for about six months so it Was about 25 weeks or so so if you take It from March of 2024 we've already gone
Down for about 23 weeks right and so you You can kind of see that a lot of this Pattern has been playing out it just it It feels like this time is different but I think the reason it feels like that is Because we just got so far ahead of Where we normally are and by the way There's actually a lot of other things That happened exactly the same way for Instance if you were to Overlay gold Onto the Bitcoin chart there was a Period in 2019 right where gold broke Out and when it broke out it marked you Know if you want to call it the midcycle Top for Bitcoin where it faded for about Six to nine months same thing happened This cycle right gold broke out in March And that essentially marked what you Might call the uh the midcycle top and So I I think a lot of this is playing Out the same way and and in fact one way To visualize this that I think everyone Could appreciate is if you look at the ROI of Bitcoin from the low in 20122 and You compare it to say similar lows in 2018 and 2014 you can actually see that Bitcoin is essentially right where it Always is around this time in the cycle Now if you measure it from the peak you Can see that it's actually still above Where it is at this point in the cycle In fact the last two cycles as measured From the peak Bitcoin was still about 45% below the all-time high 45% below at
This point in the cycle now what I'd Like to draw your attention to is the Similarities look at last cycle which is This line right here and then cycle Before that you can see how Bitcoin got Ahead of itself in 2019 and then those Rate Cuts came in and then Bitcoin sort Of mean reverted now if you compare this Cycle to the the last one you could Argue a very similar thing is happening Or has happened right it gets ahead of Itself and then ultimately it it mean Reverts so I think there is a lot of Evidence to suggest that this cycle Really isn't that different I just think That the the Bitcoin dominance part of It like that the bleeding of altcoins Back to bitcoin is going on longer than It did last cycle but I think that's due To monetary policy and by the way Anybody who wants access to these charts The into the cryptoverse proprietary Information and charts you see uh I Recommend you use it I have an affiliate Link below I've made some decent money With this uh this backend charts you Have and uh I think you put out good Information so use the affiliate link Below and get access to these charts but But I'll let you plug that at the end But let's finish up with Bitcoin um so it sounds to me you're Saying like things could could be Bullish for Bitcoin in 2025 and and what
Are your thoughts on that and if so as Far as price is concerned what's your Bare case base case and bull case well I Would say for for Bitcoin yeah like if It repeats 2019 right if it repeats 2019 Then essentially and I said this back in March right essentially you're going to Have about six to nine months where You're going to see a pullback right six Months would be September okay six Months would be September so if it Repeats what happened in say September Then essentially Bitcoin is still going To hang around these levels for at least Another few weeks right that's if it Repeats 2019 without the hard landing And and what that could theoretically Look like if you look at say like the 100 we moving average you you can see That that Bitcoin ultimately Revisited Its 100 we moving average in 2019 after Rate Cuts arrived right so it is Possible that you could see something Like that play out it's not you know It's hard to say obviously it's not like Every cycle it happens but you can see The last two cycles after it broke above The 100 week we eventually went back to It but I would say in 2025 right if this All plays out and you know whether you Get a hard Landing or not you know I Mean you can see that we did get a hard Landing in 2020 whether you get a hard Landing or not there likely is going to
Be you know the FED coming back to try To save the day um we'll see how Successful they are but I think the Bigger story uh in 2025 I mean look Bitcoin has gone in a Great Rally so far Right it's up 350% uh from the lows essentially it's Done really really well but and I've Talked about this on your channel a lot I think the bigger story next year will Actually Be while Bitcoin could go up I I think The altcoin market will likely Outperform Bitcoin next year and you Know I don't say that lightly right you Know I don't say that lightly I mean I've been on the I've been on the Bitcoin dominance train for a long time But I think we need to Spend you know at least one to four more Months either September through December I think Bitcoin dominance will top and Then next Year you'll see altcoins likely lead Right you'll see those go up against Bitcoin and that's that's really what I Think the real story will be next year Um and so that's kind of that's kind of What I'm I'm I'm waiting to see play out As it relates to the altcoin market is Is is Bitcoin dominance generally Topping out uh before the end of the Year around 60% as far as you know as as Far as prices go look I you know price
Predictions are are incredibly difficult Uh to to make I do think as always There's going to be some evidence of of Diminishing returns continuing and and That could be shown by looking at just Looking at you know the ROI from the Lows right and and seeing that you know Basically every cycle the ROI from the Low diminishes right I don't know Exactly where it's going to go this time Um you know it would certainly be nice If if Bitcoin could eventually hit six You know six figures but there's also Evidence to suggest that it it it could Top out before that so I don't really Know exactly where it's going to top but I will say that I think we are we're I Think we're getting to the final part of Where big Bitcoin outperforms and I Think next year you'll actually see Altcoins outperform Bitcoin wow so it Sounds like you're saying sometime in The next maybe four to six months is the Best time ever to buy Altcoins well in a more uh trying to Think about how how to in a more uh risk Averse way to say it I guess um you know Normally what happens with look I I Think that and I've said this before Right I think that eth Bitcoin is sort Of the uh the sort of the the the Harbinger for the altcoin market right It tells you how healthy the altcoin Market is how healthy or unhealthy it is
And what I'm looking at right now as it Relates to ethereum because I mean There's no there's no doubt about it That ethereum has really underperformed Bitcoin for the last you know two and a Half years right I mean really Especially since the merge um eth has Underperformed Bitcoin but what I want To draw your attention to and I I think This is it's important to understand the Altcoin market by looking at this metric Eth has gone through the same pattern With Bitcoin two times before where it It sets a low and after setting that low It bounces to a double top and then Comes back down and eventually breaks Below that low and you can see that it Broke below it in November 2016 and then It broke below it in July of 2019 and then eth Bitcoin then bottomed Out within one to two months right right So in 2016 it bottomed out one month Later in 2019 it bottomed out two months Later that doesn't mean that ethusd has To immediately go up right and I want to Be clear about that I'm not I'm not Saying that it will and in fact I think Honestly I think there could be a little Bit more pain for ethereum before we see It hopefully rebound into 2025 and and The reason I say that is because you Know a lot of people have wondered like Why why is Bitcoin gone to new all-time Highs but ethereum has not right why has
Bitcoin done so well and again it's it's Basically people taking on the lower Risk asset Bitcoin they're they're more Worried about the higher risk assets Because they don't know you know exactly How much the fed's going to cut rates if It's actually going to want if it's Going to Le people to takeing more risk But here's a here's a really interesting Chart if you look at Bitcoin and and you See what had to happen before it went to A new time high you can see that it Actually went to its lower logarithmic Progression trend line right so it did That back in 2022 it actually went below It kind of like it did over here in 2020 And so after it went there then Bitcoin put in new altime highs now if You look at ethereum and you look at the Same type of trend line the the Logarithmic progression trend line what You'll notice is that eth actually never Went down there and what's fascinating Is that the last two times that eth Bitcoin broke down 2016 and 2019 after that happened after eth Bitcoin broke down ethusd then fell to The logarithmic aggression trend line And then once it fell down there it then Got a big bounce out of it now look at The difference right look at the Difference in 2016 it it had it had a Move all the way down here in August of The having year this Weck right here is
August of the Bitcoin having year it Then trended up into September and then Had the final drop in Q4 last cycle After eth made the same move it also Happened in August it was just the August of the of the the prehab year That was when rate Cuts were were were Occurring and then you can see that as You got out into Q4 ethusd fell to the Bottom but my point is this when it Happened in 2016 ethusd dropped and then had a big Rebound out of it right in 2019 when eth USD dropped down here it then had a big Rebound out of it so you have to wonder Right you know is it is it just going to Do the same thing where it it gets this Drop down and then just gets a big Rebound out of it into 20125 look I I Think there's a good case to be made That that's you know that could happen And I I I think that what first needs to Happen eth Bitcoin bottoms out you right Like you know I think between 03 to 04 Is where it's going to bottom It's already even gone to 0.4 so I think It bottoms out there and then ethusd Finds a low right it could certainly be A higher low from from back over here And then in 2025 ideally the you know The riskier stuff then starts to Outperform but again I I I still think We're a few months away from that and You know altcoins really rallying hard
That makes sense to me I mean um in 2025 After Bitcoin clearly breaks over its All-time highs Arthur Hayes from bitmex Said recently that he thinks only after Bitcoin clears 70k and ethereum reclaims 4K we're going to see a massive alt Season and you know I think we see that Almost every cycle where Bitcoin breaks All-time highs people who have been in The market for a while feel this wealth Effect where it's like well I'm not Getting the returns uh that I used to be Getting with the higher caps I'm going To put some of that money into lower Caps Plus new people coming to the Market or thinking oh I missed out on Bitcoin or ethereum I need to like put It in the more DG plays and you just get This massive alt cycle yeah I mean look It's honestly it's pretty clear right I Mean your your two last alt seasons were In the post having year right this is so This is the Bitcoin dominance yearly Candles right so if you're wning alt Season you want to see Bitcoin dominance Go down right the last time you had a Big yearly candle where dominance went Down was the post having year of 2021 The time before that was the post having Year of 2017 so look three green three Year basically what happens is that You're right I mean you basically said It I don't I don't really think I could Say it any better essentially what
Happens is that people that were riding The Bitcoin train during Tighter and Tighter monetary policy they know they Know what's up with with the crypto Markets but then when you get to the Post having year and you get to looser Monetary policy and all that all that Good stuff altcoins outperform so then You get a lot of new retail investors That come into the market right you get A lot of new retail investors and then Those investors only ever see Bitcoin Dominance go down 2017 and 2021 so then When you get out to you know 2026 and 2027 those people are likely going to Think that Bitcoin dominance will keep Going down but in reality you're likely Just going to see the same thing repeat By the way you know there's been this Interesting discussion recently as to Whether what we just saw in March of 2024 was similar to 2021 and I actually Don't think so I I I really think They're they're they look a lot Different to me and the reason for that Is if you look at like the social risk And this is something we've talked about On on on your channel before um you know You can see pretty clearly that that Retail is just not here in the same way That they were here back in 2021 or in 2017 uh this is loading right now so It'll take a few seconds we're loading In a lot of channels but you know these
Are these are new YouTube views to you Know to crypto YouTube channels Including your own by the way and you Can see that in 2021 these you know the Collective views for all these channels Were averaging around 3 to four million A day today they're averaging around 800,000 a day so you're essentially Looking at One of the interest that we had in 2021 And the reason why that's important is Because if you if you sort of plot this Out you normalize it you account for Just increased interest overall because You just have you know there's always Going to be some level adoption you get A chart that also looks like 2019 right Where this where this sort of this Intermediate rally the QT the Quantitative tightening side of the Cycle the rally by Bitcoin it gets some Interest but then that interest just Sort of goes back down and then it was The following year where looser policy Arrives you know lower rates Quantitative easing that's where retail Comes back that's where Bitcoin Dominance goes down and that's where all Season occurs so my best guess for when Alt will outperform Bitcoin is is going To be 2025 and it doesn't mean that you Know it doesn't mean that you have to Wait until 2025 to see them bottom out Against Bitcoin I think it could happen
You know as early as as September but I I do think you know you can kind of see How the market is is setting up in the Same way it did last cycle I just think The the thing that has thrown people a Curveball this cycle is that where rate Cuts are happening right last cycle it Was in the post having or the preh Having year this cycle it's in the Having Year Ben please plug your into the Cryptoverse indicator it it looks to me Like I can't wait to see the the YouTube Metrics I can't wait to see that Spike For all of us again and then at that Time you might have to consider are we Reaching a a cycle top so if you want to Stay in tune with that and all the other Things on um your charts uh make sure You follow Ben for sure because he Covers this stuff all the time but also If you want to have access to these Charts I have an affiliate link below I've made some decent money uh using ITC Uh anybody can level up their game using This uh so please Ben why would somebody Want to use your Indicator yeah I mean the the great Thing about it is we have we have all Sorts of indicators thousands of Indicators for not just Bitcoin you know I know I know people say that I'm a maxi But I actually I I just like to follow The Bitcoin dominance Trends and and we
Have a lot of different things for all Sorts of cryptocurrencies so um you know If you actually look at at like this Asset filter over here you can basically Click on a lot of different Cryptocurrencies and and then it'll just Pull up all the charts that we have for That cryptocurrency so it's kind of cool Uh furthermore we have risk metrics that You can use to you know navigate the Cryptoverse and that way and this is Really I think the way to be successful In crypto is to not try to figure out Exactly where the econom is going to go Or try to figure out you know what Exactly is going to happen tomorrow but Just say you know what there's a risk Level that I'm comfortable buying up to And then once it goes above a certain Risk level above that I would be I'd Want to sell and everything else is Noise right everything else is noise and So I think this is a really great way to Navigate the crypto markets like you Know when it's blue it's a better time To DCA when it's red it's a better time To sell and then obviously you have Everything in between but yeah that we Have that uh we also have a lot of stuff For stocks and and the macroverse if you Are interested in that and we'll Continue to to build it out every every Single Week and make sure you use our affiliate
Link below if you want 10% off uh your First uh month or whatever their first Time you buy uh Ben thank you so much For coming on today uh really like what You do on your channel it was awesome Seeing you uh at Bitcoin Nashville final Thoughts for the altcoin daily Audience yeah I mean my final thoughts Are are just that you know it's been a Long journey um I think a lot of people Would would do a lot better in the Crypto markets if they valued their Portfolio in terms of it Bitcoin Valuation I think a lot of things start To make more sense once to do that um But yeah we'll see we'll see how the Rest of the year shapes up and and see If um if things look better starting in 2025 thanks Ben
