You're a home buyer somebody or a young Person looking to buy a home you need a Bit of a reset there there is a Possibility on the other side of this That that uh inflation could be could Actually be quite welcome back to real Estate mindset and today's video is Going to be absolutely Bonkers now the Data is in and today we're going to go Over a report from redin that's going to Go over data for existing homes I really Want to make that point because existing Homes and new home data is completely Different prices are absolutely Plummeting right now with new homes so I Want to make that clear some people get That those two confused so again no new Home data today only existing home data And here's the alarming thing really Really crazy you guys demand is going Down affordability is going down Supply Is going up and yet prices are going up So the question is guys why is that and We'll dig into all of the stats today on Red fin I'm going to over as well how to Do a type of market analysis so it's not Going to be a full market analysis but I'm going to show you guys how to do a Market analysis using Zillow so if You're in a state that's a Non-disclosure State like Texas it will Not work but if you're in a state like California that is a disclosure State This will probably benefit you and I
Have learned some strategies on how to Use data from Zillow even though it's Not perfect but at least it's something So we will be discussing that today day And listen as always if you find Value If this is helpful for you if you like Going over this data with me like the Video and shoot me a Bonkers below Literally type in B o n k RS Bonkers so That I know you guys are enjoying this Content now the name of the article from Redin is housing market update Supply Climbs 5% biggest increase in nearly a Year so we're finally starting to get Inventory coming back to the market and I'm just going to read one line in the Last paragraph here from redin and then We're going to go straight into the data Now the first line States the supply of Homes for sale is picking up in time for Spring home buying seasoned and Improving inventory is attracting some Buyers now generally their last Paragraph is over optimistic let's see What it is today increasing inventory Has yet to dampen price growth which is Breaking the laws of supply and demand The median us home price is up 5.3% Year-over year the biggest the second Biggest increase since October 2022 and The median monthly mortgage payment is Just $31 shy of its all-time high due to Elevated mortgage rates and prices
Remember guys it's not just interest Rates it's prices that have blown up as Well now redin economists expect Mortgage rates to gradually decline Throughout 2024 even though we have Runaway inflation they still think that For some reason okay an Outlook that was Little changed in the wake of this Week's fed press conference in which the FED held interest rates steady and Comment below let me know what you think Is going to happen this year now Obviously you guys I believe it's the 10th and 11th of April is when CPI and PPI come out do y'all think inflation is Lower or do you think it's higher Personally I think it's higher because Inflation is basically money and the Government continues to spend at massive Massive hundreds of billions of dollar Deficits and they just passed 1.4 Trillion isn't that right so personally I think inflation is going to continue To get worse and I do not think interest Rates are high enough I'm going to tell You that right now they are not high Enough we know that because again prices The prices of houses have not gone down On a nationwide average overall in 2023 But the interesting thing again you guys New homes it has so what's going on Let's jump into the data all right Taking a look at this week's leading Indic indicator so the daily average is
Finally over 6% sitting at 7.01% now year-over-year you guys that Is a huge change so we went from 6.67% to 7.01% so rates again are higher right Now than they were last year so we have Less affordability in the market right Now compared to last year now the weekly Average is 6.74 that's up from 6.6 Year-over-year now mortgage purchase Applications which is demand you guys That's down 1% from a week earlier but Also when we look at the year-over-year It's down 14% from a year ago mortgage loan Officers and Realtors and title Companies are taking in an absolute Beating right now in fact in real estate We feel it as a recession already redin Home buying demand index is up 8% from a Month earlier oh that's really cool and Down unfortunately 5% unfortunately for Agents 5% year-over now Google homes for Searches is essentially unchanged from a Month earlier but that is down when we Look at year-over-year Massively at 18% so demand is also down So Supply is up uh affordability is down Demand is down we just need prices to Come down wouldn't you agree comment Below now touring activity at this time Last year it was up 19% from the start Of 2023 so it's not giving us any month Over month or year-over-year comparisons
Probably because they don't like what They see now take a look at this week's Winners and this week's losers and I Want to make a huge Point here this is Not counting from Peak from Peak a lot Of these cities do not have this type of Growth whatsoever from Peak but again This is comparing year-over-year and You're going to notice a lot of the Metros are now off the loser list but Let's look at the top five Metro areas According to median sales price Increases number one is San Jose California at 18.9% and then we have a Usual suspect so Florida's coming in Here again with Miami even though Inventory is exploding in Miami prices Are still elevated sitting at a growth Rate of 15.6% year-over-year then we Have West Palm Beach Florida sitting at 15.3% and then we have Newark is that How you pronounce that I mean it's a Joke at this point new ark is up 14.6% And then another California Metro with Anaheim California sitting up at 14.5% Now all of those areas have limited Inventory for new homes I believe the More new home clusters are around your Metro area the softer the prices will Become now the only losing metro area That they're tracking remember they Don't track every metro area so there Are multiple Metro areas in fact I'm Tracking them myself that are on the
Year-over-year price decline list but They only have San Antonio okay again I Have a list of multiple but San Antonio Is down 1.5% very interesting that we're No longer are Austin yet on this list But do me a favor guys comment below do You think Austin's going to come back on This list probably even though they've Lost so much already all right let's Visualize some data I got my trusty Little apple pant I'm going to write all Over these graphs and let's see where We're at this week and remember you guys These graphs that we're looking at are Week over week comparisons but they also Have the last three years of data so you Can also use it to compare Year-over-year or year-over year over Year but we're looking at it to follow The trajectory of week over week data Let me show you all right so we're Starting with median sales price now That is up according to this data 5.3% year-over-year and this is year- Over-ear right here okay so that's year- Over-ear so there is growth of 5.3% now It's off peak you guys see the peak was Right here the peak is like in the Summer months so it's off peak but again It's again when we compare the blue l to The red line that's what year-over-year Means so keep watching that prices have Continued to go up almost every month Going into February so there was a
Couple you guys see it was kind of Plateaued and going down right here but Since we've hit February spring home Buying season is coming back and the Prices are going up now again higher Rates I think that curves that I think That the rates are too low right now and I I think maybe the rates would be okay Where it's at right now if it wasn't for The deficit spending the deficit Spending is out of control absolutely Out of control that's one thing that I've learned through doing this channel Is just how much money printing is still Going on it never stopped that's the CR Like I assumed a lot of it stopped we're On Pace to exceed the amount of deficit During lockdowns all right now here's Median asking price that is also up 5.7% year-over-year now that trajectory Basically skyrocketed at the beginning Of the year kind of plateaued but it's Going up again so honestly guys I think We need another you know I'm going to Just say it okay sit down for this I Think we need another rate hike I think I think we do I think we need another Rate hike I think that additional rate Hike would change the sentiment Sentiment again and curve buying because We need inventory we need sustained Inventory right when we have sustained Inventory prices go down and if we Really look at the existing home data
Only not new home data existing home Data I believe believe we're short 150 To 200,000 active units that's it I Think as long as we can sustain 900,000 Active units sustained so we have Constantly active units of 900,000 I Think prices go down in fact if we go Back to 2022 and we look at the Deflationary pressures that were Happening back in 2022 meaning prices Were going down like officially value And prices were going down in 2022 if we Look at that and we match that with the Inventory we see we had that much Inventory we didn't even make a million We had under a million and we had that Type of price decline so I think that's All we need let's get back into the data Now this one right here you guys Continues to blow my mind and it blows My mind because it's like there are some People still purchasing home buying home Buying housing payments which means if You buy right now not if you've already Bought potentially just depends when you Buy right but you guys that's up somehow Up 8 and a half% year-over-year so all The people that were expecting to Refinance into a lower rate I mean you Guys are starting to realize that was a Bunch of nonsense that Realtors were Saying you can't say that to people in My opinion it's very Reckless advice Just buy now and hope to refinance later
Without telling them what it takes to Refinance and how expensive refinancing Is but the average mortgage payment Right now is $2,685 now basically guys depending on The data that we're looking at we need An increase of about 60% in income okay For us to go back to something that's More sustainable historically Sustainable or we need prices to go down About 40% okay and this is approximate so we Are way out of wax deal you guys the Housing market right now is still madly Insanely toxic so again I'll show you How to do a market analysis using data From Zillow but if you're out there you Know shopping for a house understand how Toxic it is and and if you are Purchasing right now please for love of God use the fundamentals that I'm trying To teach you now obviously I've been Saying this over and over again I think We need to wait and wait for what Recession I think we need to get through The recession or at least make it Through that this soft Landing we we're Not in soft Landing we're still flying Right now the yield curve inversion the Quantitative tightening so much is going On I think overall we got to wait and if We wait I think we get a better deal However there's still people buying so If you have to buy please fundamentals
Make sure you can afford the house wedge Cash flow proper expectations no Consumer Debt right being an asset at The company that you work at the thing Is guys this is what I'm afraid of now I'm teaching people how to find great Deals when there's a housing market Crash great deals are easy to find right Now they're hard to find but I'm worried That the deals that we are finding right Now we don't even know if those are good Deals because the lack of price Discovery we have it with new homes Right we have that in the data but we Don't have that in the data with the Existing homes so my in other words it's Best to wait you guys in my opinion it's Best to wait but if you don't wait just Make sure you're doing the right due Diligence up front and you trust Yourself not a realtor all right now Pending sales is also down 4% Year-over-year so that's a Four year low for this time of year okay So again this is comparing this time of Year right here to the other four years All right so that's another fouryear low As far as transactions right so we have A transaction crash obviously in the Housing market now take a look at this Guys this is beautiful as well new Listings of homes is up 15% Year-over-year so that is exploding However I just want to make a point
That's still under 2021 and 2022 you see It was a little bit higher right here so We are higher than last year but just to Be transparent you guys it's still not Where it was like pre pandemic or the First two years after so we still need To keep our eyes on that because we need This to sustain now here here is the Greatest news of all you guys active Listings we finally finally finally have More active listings than we've had for The last four years so this is a Foure high so we have a four-year high Again for this time of year you see that Right there so we have a four-year high For this time of year for active Listings on the market at 795,000 Remember what I said we need sustained What did I say you guys we need about 900,000 look it this is when price Decline happened right here okay you can Look at K Schiller you can look at Anything you want it's pretty much Unanimous prices went down for the first Time rapidly I may at for the first time Since the GFC right here where I've Circled and that's when we had again About 900,000 active units that's why I'm Saying that so we have so you know so we Need to get more now hopefully we have That by July and August only time will Tell also some more good news you guys We have 3.4 months of Supply now that's
Still low we need sustain four to five Months technically if we had 6 months it Would be way better which is what we Have with new homes but nevertheless This is another Fouryear high for this time of year Which means we have more Supply right Now than we have in the last four years So you guys see what I'm saying so how Are pric is not going down still and I'm Going to tell you at the end why I think Prices are not going down it has a lot To do with realtors that are not telling Their clients to find a good deal most Realtors are only looking at their Commission I'll get to that in a minute Now this is something remarkable that we Generally don't see for this time of Year which are the massive like like This again this is another four year High these are all the things that we Want to see if you're on the sideline But you guys we have 5.7% of homes that had price cuts and That's just during that period of time Total amount of inventory is probably 20 To 30% % of total homes with price Cuts But look at you guys the trajectory this Started early this year this started in February and it's probably because Interest rates again it's only a matter Of time before we have prices go down I Think we just need a little bit more Inventory but again another four-year
High very beautiful to see this we just Need people to hold off on purchasing Overpriced houses is everyone was out There you guys trying to find a great Deal if we had more Realtors and here's The thing here's one of the reasons why I think this is like that weak Realtors Almost every single realtor is fear of Missing out they're still pushing the Fear of missing out if we had more Realtors say don't buy that house it's Overpriced or we're gonna walk away if You don't do this or do that if we had More realtors that weren't afraid of Losing commission and really really Cared about their client we don't we're Not in this situation the problem is Realtors are all out to get each other Right they're not working together if we Were working together as Realtors we Came together hey we got to be very Careful for these buyers we got to make Sure that they can walk away we got to Make sure that they're in a position to Walk away we got to make sure that they Understand the obligation that they're About to get in if we had more people Like that I'm going to tell you guys we Would not be in the situation we Wouldn't we would still be in a bad Situation don't get me wrong but we Would be way better often if you're a Realtor again you know suck it up a Little bit but understand what I'm
Saying is is we need to change realtor Need to put the client before themselves And that just doesn't happen it doesn't Happen anyways you guys sorry for that Ranch one more set of data before I go Into Zillow now this is redin home Buying demand Index this is down 5% Year-over-year so demand is also at a Four year low so we're 5% under what we Were last year in other words you guys The signs are all there the writing is Still on the wall but it hasn't yet Affected prices I believe because of the Limited inventory it's been shocking to Me that people still somehow afford These houses I mean it's got to be like The upper echelon of society that can Afford a $700,000 house at a six and a Half interest rate that's insane to me Because three years earlier that same House sold for 400,000 with a 4% rate Okay you know what's also interesting Guys if we look at Millennials you know Another issue may be Millennials during Their adult life have never had a deal With an overvalued house Millennials do Not know what an overvalued house is Think about it think about it am I wrong Comment below let me know if I'm wrong All right guys so here's Zillow now Here's what I want to explain we need to Do you know whether it's right now or Two years from now when we're in the Recession you guys need to learn how to
Do an analysis on subject property Subdivisions this is how we determine Whether or not you're getting a great Deal now obviously I I teach people how To do this but I have access to MLS you Probably don't have access to MLS so we Are stuck using companies Zillow and What I want to point out you guys is you Can actually switch to sold data and Remember this is about subdivision so if I want information sold data on a Subdivision I will zoom into whatever Subdivision I want and I can use this Draw tool take a look at this guys and I Can Draw around the subdivision that I want To do an analysis on okay so let me Apply this and let me show You so now you guys in this subdivision Do you see that I have 13 five comps and so what I would do is I would filter this and arrange this by Newest so I'm arranging this by newest And now I can take all of the Comparables for 2024 for 2023 and for 2022 add it all together and figure out What the average price per square foot Was during that time and then I can Track that to the property that I want To purchase now another thing that I Would do guys say I want to buy a house In the subdivision and it's a th000 Square feet you could do additional Filters to minimize the amount of comps
That you have to review now the way you Could do that is by adjusting your home Type say you only want to look at houses And say you want to and you also Probably want to adjust the square Footage here say the minimum square Footage is 750 maximum is500 you know so Apply some filters and look at now I Only have2 comparables but this is a General way to if you really want to see If you're getting a great deal go to Zill Draw a radius around the subdivision and Look at the last three years of data I Know it's tedious but you have to be Able to rely on yourself to understand What whether or not you're getting a Good deal and you guys the reason that Is is no one's going to care about your Investment like you care about your Investment now I'll do some more lives And show you guys how Zillow works but That's the general consensus of how that Works now other than that guys hang in There existing homes still very very Toxic new homes a lot going on with new Homes hopefully that hopefully the new Homes the price decline with new homes Will spread to existing homes that's Exactly what I see happening in Texas But either way you guys comment below Share with me your Intel and your Thoughts and other than that if you're Out there investing in real estate you
Guys already know I wish you luck and I Hope you win
