[Music] It's a good World good World welcome back to real estate Mindset today's video is going to be Absolutely Bonkers and today we're going To talk about the new four-week rolling Average record so that's right guys it's Been about two years a little less than Two years but we finally hit a new Record that was set June of 2022 and Again this is for the four-week rolling Average but the thing is and I really Want to make clear on this video the Housing market right now is really A Tale of Two Tales for first of all we Have the rich versus everyone else and I'm going to show you guys data that Really what's Happening Here among other Things is the rich are still out there Purchasing real estate like nothing is Wrong so the Filthy Rich there's a Little bit that they are manipulating Median sales price I'll show you guys That information but in addition guys Remember there is the difference between New homes versus existing there's Different markets like Austin versus San Diego there's also real which is Adjusted for inflation versus nominal And there's macro versus micro and Remember you guys really the most Important thing when it comes to the Housing market is understanding your
Micro Data and because real estate is so Hyperlocal you have to analyze Subdivision and so today I'm also going To show you this basically just a Google Map I've highlighted different Subdivisions you guys can see that I've Circle subdivisions and I've put the Average price per square foot that the Homes have sold for in 2021 because my Gauge in my housing market which is Texas by the way so my housing market is Flooded right now my gauge to determine Whether or not my client or myself is Going to get a good deal is by comparing Listing price to 2021 prices now the Thing is guys you still have to be Careful because there was massive the 2021 was the highest runup so depending On what part of 2021 it was prices are Going to be drastically different but Regardless you're going to learn all of This today on real estate Minds set so We're going to start by accessing the Red fin article and I have several other Data charts to show you guys but the Name of this week's red fin article Comes out weekly is housing market Update buying a home cost more than ever With prices hitting all-time high and Mortgage rates rising and I want you Guys to understand part of the reason Why I'm going to go into so much data on The top end of the market is because you Know when we look at the rules and the
Laws of supply and demand when we have Inventory going up when we have demand Absolutely crushed Una ability Absolutely crushed prices don't go up so We really got to try to understand why Is that happening either way back to the Article just a few things here guys and We'll get right into the data the median Us home price Rose 5.2% that's Year-over-year this week and mortgage Rates hit their highest level since November of 2023 this is good prices Continue to rise partly because there Are still serious buyers searching for Homes and I'm going to just cross that Out and say there are still rich buyers That don't care about interest rates and Inflation and a lot of those people are Using all cash and I'll show you that Data as well now second paragraph the Median us home sales price hit a record So again new record four-week rolling Average this week sitting at 38372 again that's ending April 21st now That's up 5.2% from a year earlier and That's one of the biggest jumps since October of 2022 again we see the average Consumer priced out or sitting out of The market but the Filthy Rich still Playing ball the average weekly mortgage Rate hit 7.1% this week and again you Guys remember they're like mostly cash Buyers so again they don't care about Interest rates this goes on it's the
Highest level since November of 2023 and It became clear the FED would keep Interest rates High longer than expected High prices and mortgage rates drove the Median monthly mortgage payment to $2,843 that is up a whopping 13 % year Over-year insane all right this next Part here guys prices are being booed by The fact that inventory remains low Despite recent improvements demand is Holding up fairly well in the face of 7% Plus rates though some indicators are Starting to show a Slowdown and that's Because the rich people are starting to Slow down their spending the people in The bottom like us have already slowed Down or and I'm saying like us I'm not Saying the ones that are stuck in the Rat race that are spending recklessly I'm talking to you guys you guys are Good Spenders good spending habits you Guys are rebud getting you guys are Trying to get ahead of all of this You're not just getting swept in the Wind right comment below I want to know That I'm right you guys are empowering Yourself and you are improving all right Let's look at their last little bit of Information which is usually the Overoptimistic red fin agent let's see What it says this week my advice to Sellers is to price your home fairly all Right so at 2020 prices is that is that Fair right what's what's barely even
Though sellers are getting top dollar at The moment they should price Competitively to attract buyers from the Start and avoid having to drop their Prices as stubbornly high mortgage rates Eat into buyer budgets my advice for Serious buyers who can afford today's Cost is to shop for your dream home and Accept that this year is probably not The time to find a dream deal so fear of Missing out and overpay it's okay Because it's not the stock market right That's kind of what they're saying here Which I do not agree with in this market Price growth May cool slightly in the Coming months if mortgage rates stay High or rates might fall sharply but Overall housing costs are likely to Remain elevated for the foreseeable Future and again what they're talking About is existing homes Nationwide Average macro data I could show you guys Subdivisions right now without and Actually you know what I am before we End this video I'm going to access my MLS and I'm going to show you my market And I'm going to show you that houses Are sitting on the market and price cuts Are exploding but back to the leading Indicators all right guys so this week's Leading indicators finally the interest Rate's super high right now sitting at 7.39% that's the daily average this time Last year interest rates were 80 basis
Points lower exceptional this is good This is exactly what we want as a matter Of fact but we have to continue to be Patient obviously now the second thing Here guys is mortgage purchase Applications are down 15% buying Demand Right now I again overall absolutely Massacre but the rich are still playing In fact they're purchasing even more or Selling even more look at Red finin home Buying demand you guys see that right Here that is also down 9% year-over-year And not only that guys interest is down Too when we look at Google searches for Homes for sale that's down 177% year-over-year so people don't want To buy a house right now overall right Because of the unaffordability the lack Of fundamentals and the lack of Sustainability or they're priced out Just depends on who they are now looking At the longterm Composite Index this is Basically mortgage purchase applications Purchase applications are that blue line Down there that orange line is interest Rates you guys see how low the composite Is sitting at so right now we're sitting At about 196 if we go back here guys the Last time we were at 196 oh my gosh I Have to extend this let me go Max okay So last time we were at 196 let's see here about my gosh look I I got to go all the way back here okay So about let's say 1990s so mid1 1990s
That is how bad the housing market is It's actually worse right now because Right now we have more houses and more Population so there's more opportunity For business per se because there's more People so it's actually worse guys than The 1990s it's worse demand is crushed Right yall see that but look at this Remember I said there's a TA of Two Tales there's the rich versus everyone Else this is Freddy Max purchase Application growth so this is comparing Year-to date of 2023 to year-to date 2024 so there was some growth but I want To remind you guys what I'm saying okay It's the rich people I mean if you're Buying a million dollar house in my Opinion you're rich okay just my opinion You're rich if you could do that and you Could pay all cash you're you're rich But look at guys one1 million doll Houses okay so transactions this is only Purchase applications transactions Exceeding not 1 million exceeding 1 Million grew 63% year-over-year now most of the Transactions in real estate are not Million Dollar Plus most of the Transactions are down here probably 300 To 500,000 so that's the bulk of it but Nevertheless you guys that is having an Impact on median sales price if more Homes that are over a million dollars Are now selling and less homes that are
More affordable are selling then that Will impact median sales price but look At the next tier 900 to a million 47% Growth in purchase applications 22% Growth in purchase applications at 800 To 900,000 with 11% growth at 700 to 800,000 and I believe we also see that In purchase transactions because Remember if someone's getting a loan Then it's not showing the cash Transaction so we'll look at cash Transactions but first again let's look At existing home sales because that is In the gutter there's been a tiny little Baby uptick but as of about February Guys we're you know we're at a rate of Less than 4 million transactions for the Year and again if we go back all the way Back here first of all look at the Recession so look at this so during the Recession we were still higher except Right here that's it February of 2009 Okay so February 2009 but you guys think About that the whole world was messed up And there were still more transactions Being done than right now we got to go All the way back let's see let's see how Far we got to go back let's look at this Dip right here so about again 1995 you Guys we have more houses more population More ability to get money in Transactions are worse than the 1990s so So again what I'm trying to point out is It's worse than the 1990s because we
Have more people but again now let me Show you this because I really want to Hammer down why median sales prices Going up when all of the other laws of Supply and demand are reversing so to me It's kind of almost almost almost I know Sentiment is important that's almost Impossible and take a look at this guys Here's existing single family home Transactions so this isn't loans and Again you go here and you look look at The growth okay so you had a 14% Year-over-year growth in million doll Plus transactions a lot of that was cash And look at here 750 to a million doll Homes you had a 5% growth now when we Drop under 750 okay so 750 and to zero To the left look at this guys we had Loss of growth we had things decline so If houses are under 750,000 they're not Selling as much as houses above 750,000 Now the main group right here okay this Is this accounts for the highest share Of purchases homes 250 to 500,000 that's Down the highest share is down and again That's more the affordable pricing is Down 88.1% and you guys can see the the bulk Right here so you see 45% of the total Sales are right here 250 to 500,000 now Look at this guys 1 million plus exceeds The total transactions 7 .3% but that Exceeds 750 to 1 million crazy man like You know if if you're rich you got a
Whole bunch richer as what this looks Like and if you were not rich you got a Whole bunch poorer which is what this Looks like now take a look at this guys This is percentage of Home purchases Made in all cash and this is by quarter And this is going over certain cities Certain counties but really what I want You guys to pay attention to is Q3 of 2023 to Q4 of 2023 as essentially you See growth in every single metro area Basically every single metro area minus Myrtle Beach increase in all cash Transactions look at that you know There's a lot of cash in the market Right now that continues to stimulate it So if we didn't have all this Rich Spending Rich cash spending I mean guys I mean we already be in recession but Look at some of the top states you guys Punta Gorda 57.8 of the transactions were all cash But remember there are loan gimmicks out There that act like it's all cash but It's really a loan but look at Flint Look at that 57% that's crazy Detroit Detroit how does Detroit 51% of the Transactions in Detroit are cash Absolutely incredible all right guys Taking a look at this week's winners and This week's losers all right starting With the biggest winners year-over-year Increases number one Anaheim that's just In that's insane up
25% yearo year are you kidding me almost No new construction you guys in Anaheim Almost all of the stuff in Anaheim I Mean the median sales price is probably Close to a million or over 700,000 Houses are so expensive in Anaheim in Fact the only people that could really Purchase in Anaheim is people that are Millionaires so okay maybe that makes Sense now number two is New bronswick New Jersey 14.9% number three is super Shocker Detroit at 14% we really got to Dig into that a little bit more now Number four is a West Palm Beach usual Suspect at 13. 4% San Jose 133% we're Going to see San Jose get gutted we also See San Jose is leading as you can see Right here with 43% inventory growth as Far as new listings that's crazy to me So we'll see that slow down now look at The losing Metro so San Antonio has been Kicked off of this and replaced Okay so We've replaced San Antonio with Austin All Texas Metro areas remember why I Said Texas has so much inventory and It's not even all reported that's why You're seeing Texas melt down before Anywhere else and that's also why you're Starting to see Florida have problems But you guys Austin is sitting at Negative .9% and according to them these Are the only that is the only top 50 Metro area on the year-over-year price Decline list now even then say you're in
Anaheim it doesn't mean that every house In Anaheim is up for sale for 20% Year-over-year growth it doesn't mean That remember guys all we're looking at Is macro data even when we go like to City it's still macro you have to go Hyper local because every subdivision is Different and so let me show you if you You are on the sideline if you're Getting impatient or if you just really Want to track your Market all you have To do is really Circle get a map you Know I'm going to show you guys okay you Get a map like this and first thing you Do is you start to circle the Subdivisions you want to watch and so That's what I did here you guys so you Can tell that pretty much every Highlighted area is an indiv idual Subdivision and because it's an Individual subdivision the value Works Differently meaning you're going to get Different price per square foot Depending on things like amenities and Location and things of that nature so First thing is again I've highlighted Basically the subdivisions now after That you guys I accessed my local MLS And I did a subdivision review and Analysis going back to 2021 on each of Those subdivisions so again you know When we look here and this is an example Okay so for an example let's zoom in Over here so we have one subdivision you
Guys that in 2021 again this is Hypothetical but we have one subdivision Right here in 2021 that the average Houses were selling for $139 take a look at the subdivision Right next to it you guys see that right There so that subdivision right next to It is selling for $160 a square foot Back in 2021 but the advantage of doing Stuff like this guys is it gives you a Head start on comparables that come to The market so say for example I was Watching this met I'm sorry that I Wanted to live in this subdivision right Here I would wait for listings to come Out and any listing that came out that Was well under $128 a square foot I know To spend time investigating okay so Again this is just a great way and even If you're a realtor if you're a realtor This is especially great you can really Cut out all the BS and hone in on which Comps and which homes are selling for Under market value because what we need To be doing right now you guys is we Need to be driving the prices down not Up so if you don't have access to the MLS all you're going to have to do is Have a realtor go to the MLS just like This okay you can pull up a map right Here you can zoom into the areas that You want an analysis on and again you Just again you zoom into the Subdivisions and you start doing an
Analysis you guys should know how to do The analysis again I'm pulling all of The comps from 2021 and then I'm Analyzing those comps and figuring out What the median and average square foot Is this is again it's a great way now by Doing that let me show you what I could Do so now I can just come back to MLS or Zillow or whatever you're using I can Put the city that I'm watching for Example Kingwood which is the map that I Just showed you okay so it shows that There are 88 active listings in Kingwood Let me show you guys the results and by The way that's really good inventory so Once I got the results you guys a lot of Times what I like to do is I like to Organize it by price per square foot uh From low to high so let me do that now And you guys can see right away remember When I first started doing these videos In Kingwood I couldn't find barely any Homes out $120 a square foot and right Now you guys during spring and summer Home buying season the you know Everything's going up like crazy right But yet I have 14 houses that are under Market value okay depending on which Time you're looking at I'm again I'm Talking about 2021 so in Kingwood the Average was about $140 a square foot so A lot of those first few houses you guys Allows me the opportunity to purchase a Home with wedge potentially okay and
That's really what I'm saying so I have All these options now you know again if I click this one for example let me Click this first comp right here okay First of all you guys see that the Subdivision is right here King Manor Okay so King's Manor so I know that comp Is in King's Manor and so when I go over Here back to my map that I made I know King's Manor is selling for $138 a Square foot back in 2021 because that Subdivision is Kings Manner and so my my Homework is already done I just you know I already have the value set so I don't Know if you guys want to do that I think it's pretty cool just trying to Give you guys more option regardless you Guys let's go into analyzing and Visualizing the data so here is our Median sales price I can't believe we Hit that in one week you remember I Warned you guys last week that we might Hit a new record I didn't think it would Be one week before we hit it because That means median sales price went up by Over ,000 week over week so again high End of the housing market is selling not The low end so this macro data that You're looking at is affected but I I Will point out look at the trajectory That traj jeory is scary so again don't Be don't have anxiety don't get like Overwhelmed unless you're a filthy rich Person shopping for million dollar
Houses then yes you can get worried do Whatever you want but if you're like me If you're in like the 300 400 $500,000 Price point let the rich spend their Money and waste it who cares let the House the median houses the mediumsized Houses just sit and collect dust and Have those sellers continue to price cut Because on top of this don't forget we Have historical high price Cuts as well Just not NE necessarily at those million Dollar houses but who cares as long as We get what we want as like middle class And lower class who cares we're not rich But regardless guys here's what's so Unhealthy 2021 to right now and that's a You know again I want to point out how Crazy 2021 was because remember I said I'm going 2021 prices but look it you Know the second half of the year of 2021 prices were elevated the beginning Half of 2021 prices were lower so it Really depends on what time in 2021 but Again that's why I'm using the averages Or medians of 2021 in my housing market Will this same strategy work in San Diego or Anaheim maybe not but it does Work in my market now here's another set Of data that kind of suggests that Actually yeah more million dollar houses Are being listed because look at the Median asking price and the trajectory That that's going up I mean you know Maybe the rich are starting to liquidate
Their houses you know maybe we're Talking about people that were in Retirement age they purchased a home for $500,000 5 years ago it's now worth 1.2 Million you know so that could be what We're saying but again the trajectory of Meeting asking price is basically going Parabolic right now it's going out of Control right now but it's so important That you understand which price tiers That's affecting some metros may be all Price tiers other metros may be only the Expensive ones you have to understand What's going on in your Market but what I can tell you is in every single Market Market if you're getting a mortgage home Buying housing payments are exploding Exploding so much so that it is up 12.6% year-over-year and I'm going to Tell you 2023 it was already Overwhelmingly unaffordable so the Overwhelming unaffordability is even Worse this year so which is good we need Things to calm down it's not good if You're out buying and you can't wait Obviously but is huge guys and again I Just go back to look at the Gap from 2021 to right now 2021 the average Mortgage payment was about $1,700 about $1,700 that's it so from $1,700 a few years later it goes to $2,800 this is why patience is a virtue It is a virtue this is why you don't use Emotions purchasing real estate it is a
Huge financial transaction that you Can't just walk away from if you walk Away you destroy your CR I mean I walked Away I destroyed my credit I couldn't do Anything for 9 to 10 years I don't want It to happen to you make sure you can Afford your home so another indication That pending sales are down so demand is Getting crippled just again not the rich Demand you guys we have a new 4-year Record low for this time of year we're Down 3.8% okay and that's transactions okay That's Penning sales so that looks at Even cash offers so 3.8% down Less sales In 2024 now here's what I am concerned About okay so even though this is saying New listings are up 10 10% Year-over-year that's good that's Measuring here here we are still down Okay we're still down from 2022 and 2021 Now granted it was a hot home buying Season so we were still in that like Piping hot home buying season everyone Wanted to sell their house and buy Another house so I understand it but I Am pointing out that we have less new Homes coming to the market than we did In 2021 and in 2022 so keep your eyes on That I've been watching that I want to Make sure that you know we continue to See that new listing growth but again 10% year-over Year beautiful that's what We want now this is also something
Incredibly incredibly important and this Is basically stalled out and I don't Like that now this is active listings of Homes for sale so that's up 10% as well So that's up 10% year-over-year in fact You guys we have a new Fouryear record so I'm showing you Demand is like fouryear horrible we have A fouryear record of inventory and Prices are Exploding there's more to the story in The details I hope you guys are seeing That but nevertheless you guys it has Stall out look at that okay now as I've Been saying okay and I'm projecting here When we hit this type of active Inventory up here which we did in 2022 I Suspect because how heavily prices are Propped up by lack of inventory I think If we sustain at that 900 to a million Active units I think we will have price To Discovery and in most all Metro areas Prices will go down now obviously that Will be enhanced by recession and Unemployment but absent that recession Absent that unemployment I think we need 900 to a million sustained right now It's showing 840 so I think we're about 150 off I think we're about I think We're right around 100,000 off that's it And another 4-week record of Supply Again another fouryear I'm sorry a Four-year record of months of supply Again you guys but this is for this time
Of year we're looking at times of year Right year over year over year over year So this is a new four year over year Over year over year record sitting at 3.2 months again though this has stalled Better to stall during spring and summer Home buying season then go down now we May see this actually go up any day now I I suspect it might because again look At the interest rates look at the Unaffordability it's so toxic to Purchase right now I mean and this is Like the Smoking Gun right so everyone's Like oh my God prices are going up Prices going up but this is our Smoking Gun right here okay listings and this is Just during this period of time they had Another 6% of total listings have price Cuts this is so so abnormal you guys This time of year again even last year When things were like crazy right now Was at about 4.3% but it's normally the last market Look at this one to two% price Cuts Right now it's 6% it's again we're not Necessarily seeing the price cuts and Median sales price because potentially That's that's being replaced by those High-end houses but nevertheless look at The price Cuts look at the price cuts of If you just want to look at one form to To you know to get an idea of like how Bad it is out there look at this one Price Cuts massively higher than any
Other time in the last four years during This time period freaking nuts thank God That the interest rates are high another Four-year record guys another four-year Record home buying demand that's down Nine Percent year-over-year again we're right Here another four year low we literally Have all of the things for supply and Demand to have more pressure on prices Going down we have everything but again This is so local and there's a few Things guys median sales price is not a Good way to determine value it's a macro Way of looking at Value what we really Want to do to understand value is Subdivision analysis because we Understand that appraisals work like This you take your subject property here And you get one two three sold homes in The same subdivision and you calculate Value that way and you calculate value By doing deductions additions or Subtractions to the comparing the Characteristics so you see that right Here so you start with your gross sales Price and then after your adjustments You get get your net and then usually The three comps are added and then Divided and you get your value so it's Not median sales price again median Sales price is an indication of what's Going on but we still have to even look Into that so right now you guys some
Subdivisions are already crashing and Some subdivisions are cracking and some Subdivisions are flourishing the main Thing is you got to understand what's Going on with you and don't feel bad if You're renting right now the important Thing is renting with a purpose if You're renting increase your purchasing Power your credit your income your Assets and start doing these maps and Figuring out what did home sell for in 2021 and what do I want as a consumer You have to Define that because agents Loan officers anyone in this industry Will not they will Define your home Purchase transaction as how much Commission am I going to make so don't Let them do that other than that guys I Really hope you valued this I have the Home buying course if you want to learn How to buy and if you're out there Investing in real estate you guys Already know I wish you luck slow your Roll be patient and I hope You win
