I mean I think that a million dollar Bitcoin is in the cards today I sit down With macroeconomist ly Alden because I Do think that Bitcoin could be as large Or larger than gold about what's next For Bitcoin and the stock market I think We're entering another upward liquidity Cycle after uh really like two plus Years of kind of being range-bound in Liquidity we discussed the Fed rate cuts And what comes next if we only get a 25 Basis point rate cut do you think we'll See a sell-off in Market even though It's supposed to be a good thing also Lynn gives her real take on altcoins Right now ethereum's got a bigger market Cap than Black Rock Solana's got like a Bigger market cap than State Street and Watch today's whole interview as Lynn Shares her best investing advice what's The best piece of investing advice you Ever received click the like button to Support me and let's start Lynn with Your background my background is uh Engineering initially um and then I Moved into uh uh management for a while And then got more into Finance uh so now I you know I I do public uh financial Analysis um I'm also the general partner At EOD death Capital so kind of a lot of Hats over the years what is the main Mover of markets is it Global Liquidity I think in the current regime Global liquidity is the the main one um
Different Market environments over time Have had different main movers um but I Think that right now liquidity uh which Is driven by multiple different things Including fiscal deficits in the United States but I think liquidity is probably The main mover currently what's your Macro Outlook given that we're about to See rate Cuts Potentially um so I I'm kind of looking For a potential rotation that's similar To the 2002 to 2007 period uh that was The last time where a lot of global Capital was stuffed into US markets uh So strong dollar highly valued Equity Markets um Market struggling for a long Period of time and as as the US Encountered a recession and then they Cut interest rates um it kind of you Know softened the dollar and then it Caused this kind of virtuous cycle for Emerging markets uh and capital kind of Came out of that and they went on to Have a very good um several years um so I think that we have a similar Market Environment to to to like that period um This is the you know kind of the the First Rate cut in a while which kind of Opens that Catalyst for that rotation so I I'm kind of looking to see if there's Follow through with that or not so 2002 To 2007 stock market Rose um and then The American economy got stronger that's You're saying and emerging economies got
Weaker um so which which period you Sorry you said similar to what we saw in 2002 to 2007 and I just wanted to Clarify what that means for traditional Markets right so that means uh I believe It's the opposite is basically that the The uh Emerging Markets had been weak um Uh starting really in the late 90s Because Emerging Markets have a lot of Dollar denominated debt um that's where They get a lot of their financing from And it's it's often not even lent to Them by the United States it's lent to Them by lenders around the world that Accumulated dollars from you know all Their all their surpluses of various Capacities they lend them to emerging Markets and if you imagine like if you Took out a house uh and your mortgage Was in Swiss Franks and the Swiss frank Doubled compared to the dollar uh you'd Be financial problems with your house And your maybe you're getting cash flows On the house that are in dollars but Your liability just like doubled Compared to Dollars um and that's really What happens to Emerging Markets when They borrow in dollars and then the Dollar has a big strong cycle compared To most other currencies uh they they Get squeezed their corporate sector Their government sector um and so that Was happening throughout the 90s uh Particularly the late 90s um uh but when
The US weakened uh in the early 2000s um That actually gave an opening for Merging markets to have a really strong Period and throughout the rest of that Um decade like that kind of 2002 to 2007 Period the US economy did go on to Recover from that recession but it Wasn't like the leader uh strengthwise In the world basically the bricks that's Actually where that name came from the Bricks it was such a popular um you know Powerful uh place for a while all these Different Emerging Markets um they were Kind of the core drivers of of the Global economy for that decade um and You know eventually Global financial Crisis and eventually uh you know in the In the 2010s we entered another stronger Dollar environment and so Emerging Markets have been in kind of another um Pressured uh time frame for quite a While um and this is kind of the first Opportunity in a while for that to Potentially rotate so we have to see we Have to see if there's follow through Lynn for the US everybody seems to be Expecting a 25 basis point rate cut some People are even saying 50 if we only get A 25 basis point rate cut do you think We'll see a sell off in markets even Though it's supposed to be a good thing So potentially because it right now it's Priced almost 5050 like the Market's not Really sure which one they're going to
Get um every time a new economic data Point comes out it kind of changes the Probabilities for that uh so it would Only I I I think it would only really be Meaningful for markets if it came out Differently than the market had By that day um the other factor is that Um they're language around what they Intend to do so it's not just it's not Just what they do um like you can have a Hawkish cut which is that you cut but Then the language around the cut Indicates that you know you can't Necessarily expect a cut the next time Or maybe not as big as you think or it Could be a doish cut which is to say They they cut but then they indicate That they're firmly going to keep doing It so there's there's both the actual um Action itself and then there's also like The follow through the language around It if you were Jerome Powell for one Year and you could do exactly what you Wanted what would you do rate cut wise For the next 12 Months yeah there's there's there's two Answers to that question because in one Sense I think that the the fundamental Algorithm that they work with doesn't Make sense so for example I don't think Central banks should set interest rates Uh I don't really believe in price Controls and they set price controls for The price of money so I kind of
Fundamentally reject the whole concept Um but if I were Drome pal and I had a Dual Mandate of trying to maximize uh Employment and trying to keep inflation Uh in check um I would probably do mild Rate cuts um as the data come in I think He's basically trying to balance his Mandates um I lay more blame for kind of Some of the current situations on Earlier uh heads of the Fed so during The green span era uh the banki era That's where I think that they could Have done significant things differently Um but ever since the global financial Crisis I view a lot of this is like Locked in now um so I don't I you know I Think that I would not really Fundamentally do much different than him Um I guess the one thing I would do Differently is I'd be more transparent About the deficit being an issue um During the pandemic you know basically The central bank is supposed to be Independent um and during the pandemic He made the rare move of saying that That the economy needs more fiscal Support so you know he can only do Monetary policy saying we need more Fiscal support um and we got that in Spades and you know we eventually got Inflation uh from it um and now that we Have ongoing very large fiscal deficits Whenever he's asked about the deficit he Basically says it's not my era to
Comment on um instead of you know if if He was being more symmetrical with his Kind of um you know occasional public uh Recommendations I think it'd be prudent For him to say look it's really hard to Do my job on inflation uh when you're Running 7% of fiscal deficits uh you Know compared to GDP in a non-recession Environment that's that's a source of Where a lot of this inflation's coming From uh but he's he's kind of um too Like uh you know now he's suddenly going Back to never want to talk about Politics even though he has in the past Called for more fiscal support I want to Talk about Bitcoin but last question on Traditional markets stock market is Coming off of all-time highs with the Rate Cuts do you see the stock market Virtually going up for the next Year I don't have a strong view about The next year I you know I think the Stock market is rather expensive Especially the the large ones iron you Know when people when the stock market Is strong people often assume it's like Very risk-on Behavior Uh the ironic Thing in this case is it's kind of a Bubble in riskof assets which is to say That there's not much interest in Cyclicals there's not much interest in Emerging market it's there's not much Interest in in Bitcoin from from you Know kind of the the broader space
There's not really an interest in those Types of assets gold has outperformed The S&P 500 over the past three years Mildly um if you kind of like look at S&P 500 priced in Gold it's been this Like slow rollover um the names that are Doing really good in the stock market Are the you know trillion doll Profitable Monopoly tech stocks um that Are basically the lowrisk stocks uh Costco is trading at like 55 times Earnings you know it's like this Bulletproof Blue Chip company and every Investor says I don't want to touch Banks I don't want to touch energy I Don't want to touch Emerging Markets I Don't really want to be in anything Cyclical I want to put all my money in Big cap Tech and Costco and stuff like That and that's actually I mean and the Funny thing is that gets dangerous Because not that Costco is going to have A problem but you can have a scenario Where the it goes down from 55 times Earnings to 35 times earnings and the Stock underperforms the the fundamentals Um so right now I think a lot of this Stock market doing well is actually Ironically somewhat risk-off behavior um I'm a little bit more interested in the Less expensive choppier areas of the Market uh whereas I am somewhat Concerned about these big expensive Areas that are I would say that many of
Them are are Bid to price levels that Don't really match their Fundamentals Lynn you are a bitcoiner Can you talk about your journey into Finding Bitcoin sure I mean I I found it Multiple times uh basically it kind of Takes multiple touches with it usually Um I knew someone that was mining it on Her like gaming computer back when you Could just do that um and I thought oh That's neat I I maybe I should do that Because I had you know I had a decent Graphics card and I was like maybe I Should do that uh never got around to it Um then a few years later had another One of those like bull runs and I was Like maybe I should buy a little bit of It um I looked at the exchange at the Time and were like really sketchy Looking uh and I was like I got that Would have been that second one would Have been in 2013 2014 2015 something Like that um and I was looking at the Exchanges and they were really sketchy Looking and I was like I gotta I got to Like put more time into this to make Sure I don't get scammed and again I Just didn't like I just you know I had Life going on and I just kind of didn't Get back to it um when it had the big Bull run in 2017 I had two a couple interactions With it one was because I was I was an
Engineer at the time still uh basically Running technical procurement for an Engineering facility and suddenly Graphics cards doubled and I was like Why like why are graphics cards doubling And one of our um Engineers was like oh That's that's the that's ethereum and I Was like so what like what's ethereum And then so I did this whole research Thing okay what's going on with ethereum What's going on with Bitcoin um I wrote My first public piece about the space in In November of 2017 And I said basically that the tech was Very interesting um but that I thought That it was it was rather euphoric at at The time and of course over the next Month like it soared into the the top And then had this prolonged bare Market Uh what what I tried to do this time Though was not forget about it all those Prior times I would kind of see it and Think it's cool and then kind of just Forget about it but after this was like The third time of doing that I'm like Okay I'm not going to make the same Mistake so during the bare Market I kept Following it uh and then uh that's you Know especially during the the covid Crash like that March 2023 Selloff um when it started to come out Of that is when I I bought in pretty Heavily and I've been bullish ever since And you don't have to get too specific
But is it 5% of your portfolio 10% how Much conviction so in so I do I have Some public Portfolios um and I keep it pretty Manageable there like I'll do a 5% Allocation and then during a bull Ron as It as it grows into like a double digit Allocation I I'll kind of like rebalance It back down um uh because a lot of People just kind of Follow That Portfolio and so I I just by default It's kind of like the The Benchmark is a Fairly stable portfolio uh just you know Spiced up a little bit um for my own Allocation uh it's double digit Percentage it's it's a rather large Allocation part of that is because I I Bought in with conviction uh but then Also just because it's it's it's outper Formed most other assets since I've Owned it um and therefore it appreciated To become a rather large position so a Lot of my position is just from not Selling um but then in addition because I you know I'm a general partner at ego Death Capital we invest in uh Bitcoin Related startups so I also have um you Know Venture exposure that is kind of Indirectly tied to bitcoin as Well do you put how much Credence do you Put in the four-year cycle for Bitcoin And then I want to Pivot that the fourth Year is coming up next year 2025 uh so I I put less uh emphasis on
That than others I mean obviously over Time the Uh you know Bitcoin versus global Liquidity uh and then also other assets Compared to Global liquidity and it does Turn out that in any given 12month Rolling period Bitcoin is more Correlated with global liquidity than Any other of the major assets that we we Do so stocks bonds gold foreign stocks Things like that they're not you know They're many of them are just to varing Degrees correlated with liquidity Especially stocks uh but Bitcoin is the Most correlated with liquidity um and Most of those highs and lows are Associated with liquidity rising and Falling um and the two major components Of liquidity the way I I measure it one Is basically the rate of Global Credit Creation um and then the other Factor Would be the strength of the dollar Relative to other currencies which is Relevant for what we talked about Earlier which is that a lot of countries In the world have dollar dominant debts That's kind of the unit of account for The for a big part of international Finance and so whenever the dollar is Strengthening uh that's actually putting A lot of pressure uh on global liquidity Whereas when the dollar is weakening Compared to other major currencies That's actually pretty positive for
Liquidity so um I think a lot of the Correlations that people associate with The four-year cycle are actually Liquidity which kind of is overlapping With it um even though I do think that There also is some relevance from from The Having and you believe Global liquidity Is increasing next year uh where does That put Bitcoin as a base case I would expect Higher you know um I i' say next 18 Months or so it's hard to time things Precisely um you know we are generally Seeing as the FED starts to cut it Straight we're seeing a softer dollar uh Doesn't mean it's going to be a straight Line um but basically some some like the Catalyst that kind of uh really propped Up the dollar are kind of fading uh and The dollar you know the United States Runs a structural trade deficit which For most currencies would be very Weakening for their currency over time Um but the United States um is also the Global Reserve currency so we have all Those dollar died debts around the world And all of that represents inflexible Demand for dollars so there's this kind Of this balancing Point whenever we Tighten monetary policy we actually are Are pretty capable strengthening in the Dollar uh andever we loose in monetary Policy that that tends to be pretty um
Uh do you know doish for the dollar um And so because I expect a somewhat Weaker dollar and I expect probably um Going back to more Global Credit Creation um by next year uh probably the Year after that um I I think we're Entering another upward liquidity cycle After uh really like two plus years of Kind of being range-bound in liquidity So Bitcoin has followed this liquidity Cycle pretty closely and my base case Over the next 18 months is probably for Both liquidity and Bitcoin to go up Although I don't really have a view of Say the next three to six months I mean These you know this is these are um Processes that take time to play out Over the next 18 months if you would Would you share your base case bare case And bull case for bitcoin Price so a lot of that is just Psychological um you know I'd be Surprised if we don't see 100K I mean That that's kind of like a back of the Envelope rough expectation where I would Think that the cycle would be I would Consider the cycle stunted if we don't Reach that um but other than that kind Of rough level I mean you know there There are easy scenarios that you can Imagine you know over the next 18 maybe 24 months you can have a wall of Liquidity and institutional buyin and Some Sovereign announcements and you can
Get the crazy numbers um or you could You could you know barely get over 100k If you even make it there so I don't you Know I don't really have views because I I didn't have to predict not just Liquidity but like what individual Nation states will do like you know Whether there's G to be like another Micro strategy that decides to come in So it kind of comes down to like one Billionaire's decision or not right so Rather than price targets I I try to Just have a sense of direction and kind Of longterm prices that that make sense Not any one Cycle Lynn what's your view on altcoins Like ethereum and Salana uh so you know I've most of my Writings have not been very constructive Toward altcoins uh I have been bullish On stable coins for years uh you know Obviously not the price but the the Volume of stable coins that is going to Exist And that has played out so ever since I Wrote that the the the the size of the Stable coin Market keeps growing uh That's you know that's basically a very Strong use case um obviously blockchains That enables stable coins to run are Therefore going to be relevant as well Um I tend to be more bearish on these More speculative use cases um so while I Think for example digital Collectibles
Are a thing they become these Bubbles And then they just like diffuse for for Long periods of time or the defi bubble Um a lot of it was just kind of Speculative aspects to it so um while I Do think that there's a a you know a use Case for basically anything that allows Stable coins to run or allow stable Coins to be like you know traded or Leveraged for other things I mean that There's relevance there um you know I Think tokenized assets are relevant so For example when like a hotel in El Salvador wants to like basically C Outsource some of its funding uh it Doesn't really have local depth of Markets to issues like basically what is A security on some sort of chain that People can buy into is is useful um so Basically I'm on board with the real World assets tokenized thesis to some Extent on board with stable coins um but I I'm not very bullish on long-term Value acral uh for a lot of these Underlying chains and one thing I Pointed out is I mean like for example When ETFs came out of the market they Really took share from Mutual Funds They're just for the most part a better Product um but when you look at all the Big ETF issuers you know Black Rock Vanguard uh State Street Invesco if you Add their market caps together they're Actually not that big right so their
Assets under management are very big Because ETFs are so successful um but The actual value of the companies Themselves you know I mean they're you Know they're multi-billion dollar Companies but they're not like trillion Dollar companies um and right now Ethereum's got a bigger market cap than Black Rock Solana's got like a bigger Market cap than State Street last I Checked or bigger bigger than Invesco at Least um I think even some meme coins Are bigger than Invesco um and so I I Think the size that some of these have Grown to is is arguably already kind of Forward Projecting what their value cruel could Be basically the size of large companies Um so I you know I'm not saying that They that there's no use case for these Things and there has been a lot of Research come out of some of these areas Like rollups and things like that uh I I Generally am not very bullish on Long-term you know prospects for for Most other things the Bitcoin ecosystem And projects finally being able to be Built on bitcoin does that change your Outlook in terms of value market cap for The Bitcoin Network uh for the most part no because I I think that the the biggest kind of Market that's being addressed here is Good money right so so we live in a
World where if you add up all assets Together you know it's something like 900 trillion like it's pretty comically Big number um and of that like the bond Market is like hundreds of trillions the Real estate market is is hundreds of Trillions the equity markets like 100 Trillion um the currency Market is like 100 trillion and then there's like you Know gold is under like 20 trillion Fine Art is some trillions basically the Whole kind of long tale of other types Of assets um and basically if you have a Really good new money uh that the world Accepts over you know 20 30 40 50 year Period as it kind of reaches whatever Its total adjustable Market is I think That's a massive Market that's like a a Huge Market uh that could be bigger than Gold for example um whereas I think that You know the other other things that can Be done with it are interesting uh but You know they're more like trillion Dollar opportunities not like1 trillion Do opportunities um so I mean one of one Of the examples is Guatemala timestamped Its um uh election 2023 election uh into Bitcoin right so they basically they They all people cast their votes and Then any given table I think there's Like 25,000 vote counting tables Throughout the country and they vote Their you know x x number of votes that They're kind of um assigned to and then
You know the the vote counters sign it And observers sign it and then that Sheet is scanned uh and then immediately Timestamped it's hashed into the Bitcoin Blockchain so it's not actually stored On bitcoin it's stored in in some other You know any sort of other servers and Backups and things like that but the Point is that you can then point to the Bitcoin blockchain and say it it was it Was it was hashed into Bitcoin at this Time it was like timestamped and that This specific thing was not altered from That time period U and it was put in Like literally minutes after all those People signed it and they did that for The whole Nationwide election right so That's kind of that's yeah that's using Bitcoin for its um basically being the Most immutable database in the world Regardless of it being money it's just It's it's a database um so there are There are non-monetary use cases for it Uh including some of these other layers That could be built out um and they're Interesting especially uh from a venture Standpoint uh they can open up Interesting uh investment opportunities But for the Network could sell 5u the The biggest use case is basically Globally portable store of value uh and International value transfer settlement Basically Kathy Wood is on record that She believes Bitcoin will hit a million
Dollars by 2030 what are your thoughts On That I mean I think that a million Dollar Bitcoin is in the cards uh Because I do think that Bitcoin could be As large or larger than gold um and I Think Gold's probably going to increase Its market share as well I mean it's Been it's been doing well in recent Years and I'm still uh bullish on gold So I think that both gold and Bitcoin I Think are going to have a little more Prominence in the years ahead um and you Know Bitcoin at a million dollars is Only a like a 20 uh trillion dollar Market cap um 21 trillion fully diluted So it's not really that big of a market Especially over time when you include Another six years of inflation and money Supply growth um you know maybe Million By 2030 is a little bit aggressive like If I were to you know put my kind of Guess hat on I'd probably give myself Till 20135 or something um so I don't Really have specific time frames like That uh but I do think that that's a Level uh that would make sense for Bitcoin to eventually get to um if it Continues to be like the you know the Global leader in digital money and Portable store Value given everything we've discussed About macro in this conversation what Would you say is the Best Buy in markets
Today I mean long-term probably Bitcoin I think it's I think that anyone in Traditional finance that has no Bitcoin Position should have a Bitcoin position Um obviously doesn't have to be like Allin like dgen you know leverage long But it but like not having any Bitcoin I Think is is the easiest low hanging Fruit to fix um even if the thesis Doesn't work out if you got if you got 3% and it's fine uh but if it does do Some of those really bullish outcomes uh It's it's good to be on the right side Of that even with a small position um And aside from that I think Um you know there there's like other Assets out there that I think could do Very well um but they all have Counterparty risk so for example I think That Chinese equities are super cheap Right now um nobody wants them um and I'd say there's a high probability that Five years from now they've done very Well from these low levels but then There's some minority position where you L just get zeroed out from owning them Kind of like if if Americans own Russian Stocks you know a little over two years Ago uh those companies are still there But your claim on those assets is Basically just sanctioned away um so any Investor has to take that into account Um so I think that there are a lot of Opportunities and Equity around um but I
Would say that Bitcoin and Bitcoin Venture uh are certainly where I'm I'm Focusing a lot of my time on cool would You name any of the Bitcoin Venture that You're invested in well so at ego death Capital we have a we have a a public Portfolio so it's it's lightning Infrastructure it's Bitcoin Brokers uh Around the world um it's you know we we Basically look into into multiple Different things um so anything that Involves helping people buy it um Helping people trade it um helping Helping uh infrastructure uh for Spending and things like that so we have Exposure to Fetti Uh which which you know has a wallet That is more private and more Distributed than we see uh many other Wallets um so there's a lot of Opportunities out there we tend to focus On the less speculative use cases so Less about like trading and leveraging For the most part although you know Trading is still relevant and it's more Instead about kind of like long-term Utility uh and long-term you know kind Of like the still basically the basics Of the ecosystem Given everything we've talked about in Macro thus far what would you say is the Worst Buy in Markets I mean for example I I'm not Bullish on Costco at 55 times earnings
Um it actually reminds me of so in the Late 90s everyone of course is is knows The.com bubble um but what they're less Familiar with in many cases is if you Look at like Coca-Cola stock they were Trading like 50 times earnings and Walmart was trading like 50 50 times Earnings um so a lot of these kind of Blue Chip Consumer staples or consumer retail that Kind of thing they were also trading at Very high valuations and over the next 10 15 years both Walmart and and Coca-Cola continued to grow their Earnings their revenue and all that but Their stock prices went like sideways For like 10 years um because even as Their earnings doubled their their Earnings multipled their price to Earnings ratio got cut in half they went From you know 50 to like 25 times Earning which is back down to like Reality uh at some point they even went Lower like like Walmart went into the Teens for a period of time um and so I You know there's there's stocks like Costco which just really hard to justify How this is going to perform long term Doesn't mean it has to do bad next year Or even the year after it's already Stayed this High longer than I would Have guessed um but I would just say That there's investors have to be Cautious about um overpaying for
Something that's very good something can Be great and you can you can turn it Into a bad investment if you buy it for Like twice of of what it's Worth Lyn a lot of Millennials are Trying to buy a house you know in the Next few years is there going to be a Good time do you think housing prices Will go significantly Lower uh I think probably not but I do Think that over time their affordability Will improve um kind of my expectation Of houses kind of like actually what we Saw with say coch where the stock didn't Really necessarily crash just kind of Like chopped along for like sideways for A long period of time as everything else Caught up to it like fundamentals caught Up the money supply caught up things Just kind of eventually became cheap Through Time rather than Direction um And I think a lot of houses might do That which is that they don't do very Well uh in inflation adjusted prices um And they don't necessarily crash and Obviously some of the cyclical markets Have already come down quite a bit from Their kind of peak Highs but a lot of The linear markets um are holding up Well or even hitting new highs um but I Think that their inflation adjusted Performance is probably not going to be Great um and that over time uh wages Will kind of grow into them uh and new
Supply will will kind of keep overtime Chipping away at at some of that and Then also I think we'll have moderately Lower interest rates uh which can Increase the affordability a little bit Um but I do think that that's G be I I Do expect that probably be like a pain Point for quite a while this this whole Housing affordability uh issue I think That's un probably going to take a Little bit more time to to Unravel what's the best piece of Investing advice you ever received and If you remember who gave it to when you Were coming Up it's hard to say but I would I would Recommend a book The most important Thing by Howard Marx and the the reason That book's relevant to the question is Um Marx would often find himself like He'd be like you know the most important Thing and he would say what it is and Then like another context he'd be like You know what the most important thing Is and it's like a whole another thing So kind of a joke the book is every Chapter is like another most important Thing so you get you get you know a Number of individually powerful pieces Of investment advice uh from I mean he's A he's a billionaire investor he's he's A professional um investor that's done Very well um and so that is a in my Opinion a really good entry book for for
Good investment advice Lynn thank you so Much for sharing your time would you Just give final thoughts to the crypto Community um as we into Q4 of this year Sure I would say that um probably Spitting up on global Equity is helpful Um basically you know the way I there's There's different ways to measure it um I look at Global uh broad money supply Uh and then denominate in dollars U so Basically you add up the the value of All major currencies and you translate That to what is its dollar value and That's relevant because you know there's A lot of dollar dominant debt in the World so that that dollar domination is Actually pretty important um and Generally speaking bitcoin's done a very Good job of tracking Global liquidity Direction wise um you know other assets It's a little bit more complex um and in General I would say from a long-term Value standpoint uh obviously people are G you know people are going to trade but For long-term value uh think where value Is going to acre uh generally we've seen These kind of waves of narratives they Have a moment in the sun uh but then They they rarely reach their prior highs Again especially when denominated Relative to to bitcoin um so be cautious Out there um and I but I do think that Liquidity is probably a a very good kind Of um indicator to be aware of for the
Direction of the space in any given 12-month period And when will we know When liquidity stops is that when the Rates start going back up again I know That's you know not anytime soon but When do we know R yeah so rates are one Variable um basically whenever you have A macro thesis that the dollar is going To strengthen marketly uh that'd be That'd be an end or you know a period of Time um the you know part of why we've Been range Bound for a while is the Fed's quantitative tightening so Basically the end of the prior liquidity Cycle so we had a really big liquidity Cycle in 2021 um and by 2022 the Fed was like oh This this inflation's out of control we Have to you know go at it so they raised Rates they did quantitative tightening Um and so you know 2022 was a really bad Year for liquidity and we bottomed uh in Early 2023 and kind of started Rising Again but still in this like sideways Like consolidation band uh like barely Above those 2021 highs um same thing for A lot of other countries um uh and so You know you kind of it's it's a lot of It's what the central banks are doing a Lot of it you can look at the rate of Change of Bank lending a lot of this is Available for free on St Louis fed's we Website they have their their big data Analytics you can look at the rate of
Bank Lending you can look at um uh what The fed's doing at their balance sheet You can look at interest rate comparison Which can strengthen or weak in the Dollar um so I think the next couple Things to watch are one we're going to Go through rate cutting cycle uh and Then probably by the end of 2025 the Fed's going to end their uh quantitative Tightening um and when they do that that Should also be like a second uh Improvement to liquidity um but whenever They kind of go back to period of Tightening um or the dollar gets really Weak and then kind of starts finding a Floor and rolling back up um that could Be end be the end of this particular Liquidity cycle I encourage everybody in The audience links for Lynn down below Subscribe follow Lynn thank you so much
