[Music] It's a good World good World welcome back to real estate Mindset today's video is going to be Absolutely Bonkers now the data is in And we are only $3,000 off the record high that was set In May of 2022 so despite what we're Hearing from all of these real estate Bulls again guys remember as far as the Four week rolling average of median Sales price we never even hit a new Record but we are dangerously close to Hitting that within the next few weeks So we're going to want to keep our eyes On that and before I really dig into the Redin update I want to remind everyone That what we're about to review is just Macro data if you guys really want to See what's going on in your housing Market you must generally almost all the Time but not all the time you have to do Subdivision analysis you have to review Compar able data in the subject Properties subdivision so don't forget That guys now here's the thing even Though we have all of the laws of supply And demand working in our favor in other Words for prices to go down prices are Actually going up so I'm going to show You guys a brand new set of data that's Going to help explain why that's Happening I'm going to give you guys a
Little bit of a clue more million doll Houses are selling than this time last Year and the lower-end houses are not Selling so again we have more High-priced house selling and less low Priced houses selling so I'm really Looking forward to going into that data I'm happy to be back guys from the road That Metro report video tour that we did Was absolutely Bonkers and if you guys Appreciated the Metro tour do me a favor Give me a like below and other than that I hope you guys enjoy this data and this Presentation I'm going to go over so Much data with you guys we're going to Start with red fin I'm going to take you Guys to mortgage News Daily so we can Look at existing home sales mortgage Purchase applications we're going to go To Fred we're also going to look at Realtor.com and we're going to put all That data together and we're going to Try to figure out what happens next hope You guys enjoy it but real quick big Shout out to Jason Walter if you guys Need help editing reach out to Jason Walter his info will be in my Description below Jason thank you for All the help brother I cannot do this Without you now the name of this week's Red fin housing market update is the Cost of buying a home hits new record as Mortgage rates jump prices rise 5% and That's 5% year-over-year so let's just
Do two paragraphs as usual guys I like You to read the first paragraph and the Last paragraph last paragraph is usually Hopelessly optimistic let's see the First paragraph the average daily Mortgage rates this week surpassed 7.4% the highest level since last November after a hotter than expected Inflation reports huh way hotter than Expected I may add their target is 2% And it's actually going up into the Threes so that's not good and the fed's Confirmation that interest rate Cuts Will be delayed delayed or too low what Do you guys think is it delayed is it Too low I think they're too low to Combat the deficit spending quite Frankly home prices are rising to the Median us home sales price increased 5% From a year earlier during the four Weeks April 14th bringing it to 3 18,250 that's just $3,095 shy of June's 2022 all-time high So again depending on the metro area Guys I said May earlier this is saying June regardless we haven't hit it yet It's been almost two years and we still Haven't hit that Peak the combination of High mortgage rates and prices have Brought home buyers median monthly Housing payments to a record so a new Record of $2,775 that's up 11% year-over-year I mean that's a
Triple whammy for buyers I mean high Prices High interest and low inventory That's not good you better be careful if You're out there buying now this last Quote remember you guys is from a red Fin realtor so it's going to be Optimistic because remember generally Unless it's a great great great realtor Realtor's jobs are to get you to Continue to buy houses that is their job Now this is what this says home sells Are slower than usual thank God but There are still people buying and Selling because if not now when Well When things get more affordable and when I can comfortably move in I've had a few Prospective buyers touring homes for the Last several years since mortgage rates Started going up and they wish they Would have bought last year because Prices and rates are even higher now my Advice to them if you can afford to and You find a house you love buy now There's no guarantee that rates will Come down soon so again the whole Narrative oh they regret not buying last Year you better buy right now but you Know the rates aren't really that much Higher than they were last year and in Some Metro areas price are actually Lower and and that's why I keep saying It's about like super micro you got to Go into subdivisions I talk to Todd saxs All the time in his housing market
Unfortunately and this really sucks for Him there's still bidding wars in my Market here in Texas I'm finding Abandoned new home communities I have Price Cuts I can find multiple Properties with listing prices back at 2021 levels and the way I'm able to do That again is not by red fin you guys It's by accessing MLS and seeing what's Really going on in the subdivision so Don't forget to do that all right all of This data that we're reviewing is just Helping to give us an idea of what's Going on but we need to understand that The data we're reviewing is Tainted we Know that we have to triangulate and Part of the triangulation of data Understanding and comprehension honestly Guys it's accessing MLS if you guys just If the public just had access to MLS I Could train everyone I could teach Everyone how to find wedge cash flow and To be safe in and we need that in the Housing market we need strong buyers to Unite the problem is guys and I'll go Over the data I'll show you why one of The reasons at least why prices are Going up when it should be going down so I'll show you that in a minute but Nevertheless part of the issue is Reckless purchasing the more and more Americans that choose to purchase real Estate based on fundamentals based on Fundamentals like a good price wedge
Cash flow and things like that the Faster we will get back to balance stop The Reckless spending seriously please It's hurting us all stop just save your Money we need to be saving our money in Front of a recession not spending it Recklessly let me know if you agree Below all right so now this week's Leading indicators so let's start with Interest rates right now according to This article we're sitting at 7.41% for interest rates that is a bit Higher so this time last year interest Rates were 6.61 now this 6.61% is part Of the reason why we didn't have Sustainable inventory growth in 2023 Remember this time last year rates were Going down we had the bank term funding Program and things like that but look at The weekly average when I scroll down Here of last year the weekly average was Actually 6.27% again this is last year right now It's sitting at 6.88% but look at this guys here's the Other thing and this is why I was like How could home prices possibly going up I'll save that data for you here in a Minute now look at mortgage purchase Applications you guys that's down 10% year over year now home buying Demand is also down double digits at 11% you guys again 11% year over year Now look at this Google searches for
Homes for sale is also down somehow Shocking 177% year-over-year the housing Market's A dumpster fire most Americans Understand that but there are still some Americans that are spending now take a Look at the Historical averages here Guys this is home sales going back to 1984 and I want to just kind of just Show the viewers right here that as far As like how many houses are being sold Right now we're at a low back into the Mid 90s so for anyone that's saying that Real estate is strong and resilient and These types of things understand you Know America's priced out of the housing Market yes there are buyers like myself On the sidelines that are just saying no And to you guys big props you're doing The right thing but again most people Are priced out right now people can't Sell houses we are super low guys in Fact we're under 4 million so this is to February obviously it's not up yet but If this continues the trajectory we will Have less sales than we did last year Very interesting and you guys that's Also hitting mortgage purchase Applications I mean it is so low right Now guys this is a composite index Sitting at 202.4 and if we go back all the way to 2015 to actually into 2014 we haven't Ever been that low I mean look at this
Guys just to put in perspective I only Went back about 10 years here we are way Lower than we've been in the last 10 Years in fact if we go back this is Sitting at a low of around the 1990s There were a couple moments during the GFC the great financial crisis where it Was this low but it bounced back up so Sales are lower than the great financial Crisis think about that that's Absolutely shocking now take a look at This data guys this is this week's Winners and this week's losers now take A look at Anaheim Anaheim has been on a Absolute tear there's essentially no Inventory in Anaheim there's no new Building I mean it's a very difficult Market in Anaheim and it's overpriced in Fact only the rich and correct me if I'm Wrong but only the rich can purchase in Anaheim anyways so what you see there in Anaheim and some of these other cities You see the rich still paying for Real Estate quite frankly and I'm going to Show you that data here in a minute I'm Going to show it to you guys but top Winners this week is Anaheim at a Whopping 25% almost 25 Providence is Number two at 14.6 Nasha county is at 14.3 West Palm Beach at 133.5 if you Guys haven't been to West Palm Beach go To West Palm Beach go over the bridge And look at how bad it is there I mean West Palm Beach is real nice on the
Coastline anything that's not on the Coastline is an it's just so bad there It's crazy how expensive West Palm Beach Is now number five is New Brunswick New Jersey sitting at 13.1% with only one metro area according To this guys only one metro area San Antonio so San Antonio is down 1% I have A metro report video that I did release On San Antonio a lot of crazy things Going on in San Antonio especially Hypers Supply with new builds now one Thing I want to point out here guys Again is new listings The Surge of Inventory right now is beautiful this is Something that we've been waiting for Like a year and that we needed last year But we didn't get it why didn't we get Inventory last year guys Bank term Funding program changed the sentiment in The US it's insane but look at the this Is crazy San Jose's up guys seriously Think about this 46% San Jose is up 46% of new listings Sacramento 27 Phoenix thank God 27% Jacksonville 27% Dallas uh oh Dallas 22.9% now before I go into visualizing The data I want to show you guys Additional data that is going to explain To us at least part okay I don't know How much but I definitely know part of The reason why median sell price is Going up is because way more million Doll houses are selling and less more
Affordable houses are selling so again Which means the people in the lower Income bracket they're not purchasing But the people in the high income Bracket are purchasing again there's Other reasons but this is definitely Part of the reason why let me show you What's been going on now let me explain This big shout out to Melody Wright on Substack for giving me this data what You guys see here is a change in sales From one year ago so this first little Table right here is year-over-year Comparison now each column gives us a Purchase price point so the first one Zero to 100 second 100 to 250 and so on With the last one being 1 million plus And what I want to do is go down to the Last row okay where it says us right Here now look at guys every single home Is down okay so every single home value Is down except right here and right here All right what this says is the homes That are priced at$ 750 ,000 to a Million those transactions are are up 5% year-over-year so that alone is going To impact median sales price but look at The million dollar plus so it's over a Million so over a million is up 14% it's Up 14% year-over-year that's astonishing Guys now 500 to 750 that's down 1.2% but The biggest pie is right here 250 to 500,000 that is the biggest category of Houses that sell look at guys that's
Down the biggest category of houses is Down 88.1% that's messing with the numbers And look at the even more affordable Housing is down 15.8 with the lowest Tier down 21.9% so again I know there's multiple Reasons why but part of the reason why We see median sales price go up when we See demand plummet and when we see Supply go up is because because the rich Keep getting richer and they're still Buying real estate and there's such a Lack of transactions they only need to Buy a few houses to drastically impact The numbers let me know whether or not You guys agree okay guys now for our Data visualization starting with median Sales price now again they said we're up 5% I want exact numbers they rounded up We're actually up 4.7% now I'm going to circle guys here's The record all right so where I just Circled that is the record of four week Okay so right here four-week rolling Average for median sales price now this Record was set in 2022 so just again FYI we still haven't Hit that record during the you know Whole fear of missing out and the Maximum like just buy and bidding wars We haven't hit that yet but I am Concerned I'll be honest with you Because of the data set that I just
Showed you and look at how close we are I mean we're sitting right here you guys We're only $3,000 off of the record and If people keep buying million doll Houses we will hit that and it's Possible we hit that this month you guys In April may be may it probably will be May but it's possible we hit a new Record in April again there's multiple Reasons why but one of those reasons is Those million-dollar houses but the Astonishing thing again if we just look Back three years ago houses were so much More affordable you guys I mean you see The equity growth houses were way more Reasonably priced just 3 years ago now Here's another thing median asking price And this might support the data set that I just went over about more million Dollar houses selling now median asking Price is up shockingly so even though we Have record-breaking price Cuts median Asking price is skyrocketing how you Guys how's that possible again I I go Back to the data set that I just showed You that's one of the explanations but That is shooting up okay that's not what We want to see we don't want to see that In normal housing market again I showed You the data but that is up 6.4% in fact The meeting asking price is 413,000 a Few years ago you guys it was slightly It was about 330 so right here it was About 330 again look at that
Trajectory that is a Skyhigh trajectory Again I think again again million doll Houses let's move on this one is messed Up and thank God right now that mortgage Payments are higher because we need People to stop buying houses I mean how Many times have I scream that you guys Get it we need people to stop buying Houses so we have price Discovery and we Have Balan back into our housing market Now if you want to buy now so be it but My concern is is making it through a Recession that's my concern straight up Making it through a recession and the Fact that negative equity is very very Realistic now as far as mortgage Payments you guys we're almost at $2,800 Look at how high we are even last year Okay even this time last year you know Payments were much lower we're up almost 11% but I really want to paint a picture Of three years ago this is insane you Guys we're about what $16 $1,700 three years ago I mean stop Here's the thing guys this is what needs To happen Stop buying okay if you're going to buy For the Love of All it's holy for the Rest of America you would be helping the Rest of America out that if you did Choose to buy you purchased homes that Are under market value right help us Bring down the value don't drive the Value up bring down the value we need to
Do this together we're in charge guys we Are in charge but we have to work Together I hate this I absolutely hate It now pending cells are down also 2% so We are off to a worse start than we did Last year so recession is already being Felt in real estate guys I mean that's Evident we are at a fouryear low for This time of year as you can see there Some more positive news on the inventory Front we are sitting at 11% Year-over-year increase that's very very Good uh we need more all right so unfor I wanted to see like 20% 15 20% on a Nationwide average but unfortunately We're at 11 at least it's double digits At least inventory is growing and Sustaining that's the key take a look Here guys this is active listings this Is also up double digits year over year This is great we have 83274 now remember we had price decline When we were about right here so the Price decline I'm going to put a square Around it was right there there that's When we had price decline now obviously The sentiment was different in America People worried about Bank runs because We had Bank runs right so the sentiment Was different plus we had active Inventory skyrocketing and we got to 900 Almost 1 million active units so that's What I think we need for more price Discovery to happen now this has been
Plateauing for the last month all right Now hopefully obviously we want that to Go up with the interest rates being in The seven I think we're going to get There but it's taking a little bit Longer than we want I mean gez Louise But keep your eyes on that guys active Listings very important also something Very beautiful which is Supply this is Going up when usually it goes down uh It's kind of went sideways right here Kind of going up we're sitting at 3.3 Now remember you guys we need six months For a buyer market so this is what we Want but honestly if we have four to Five months sustained we'll be fine the Key here again is growth and then Sustainability so we need the growth and Then we need things to sustain so more Than likely honestly interest rates are Going to be elevated for quite some Maybe half a decade to be honest with You and that's not a bad thing now Here's the thing you guys and this is Why I was like you know how could Possibly prices be going up when price Cuts are like historical again you guys The trajectory is historical normally This time of year they go sideways not Up so we're well above like we're a Four-year high for this time of year and We're well above where we're supposed to Be now normally it's about right around Here so about 2% so we're almost triple
The price cuts that we normally have for This time of year and again that's why I Say the data that I presented to you it Probably has a big impact on prices Because we see inventory going up we see Demand going down we see price cut Surging and yet we're almost going to Hit a new record before May kind of Suspicious don't you think so we got to Look at the whole picture at least in my Opinion guys and here's demand in a Chart form I already went over multiple Data sets with you guys but take a look Guys again fouryear low so we're down 11% that's insane year-over-year there's A recession right now in the housing Market I mean seriously I'm going to Tell you guys right now the fact is at Least in my local housing market prices Are going down on a nationwide average Are they n maybe not at least I know in Todd's Market they're not but the thing Is we got to go hyper local we have to Understand things are changing again if You want to go buy fine so be it but I Don't think that's a good idea because I Think we're doe a recession I don't Think what has been happening over the Last three years is sustainable let me Show you some data that supports the Point I'm trying to make again guys to Me this is about sustainability if Prices go up like this if Unaffordability goes up it's sustainable
So long as income goes up right but That's not what's been happening when we Adjust for inflation when we look at Real median household income okay so Again adjusted for inflation real median Household income has been going down Since 2019 19 this is like this is like A triple whammy you guys that's one of The primary reasons I don't think this Is sustainable if we go back to the 1980s I mean income went up look at back In the 1989 you guys we were making only $122,000 Less in 1989 it was 62,200 that's only $122,000 difference That's insane to me think about what I'm Saying but on top of that you also have Consumers that are struggling to save Money again in the 70s and 80s everyone Wants to compare 70s and 80s double Digit savings rates okay so not only are Is real median household income going Down people can't save they don't have The ability to we're saving at a rate of 3.6% and we see this affecting consumers When we look at the delinquency rate of Consumer credit cards okay the Trajectory look at a Skyrocket this a 12year high I know it's not GFC levels GFC levels was right here okay into the Fours right now we're at 3.1 so we have More to go yes but I'm saying the Trajectory is horrible in fact we have a 12year high on delinquencies and guys as
Far as prices we really don't have all The data we know the data is adjusting So when we look at just median sales Price for new homes and what we went was Over was existing homes but when we look At new homes it's been going down and I've already tracked shrinkflation I've Already tracked the sizes you guys this Is going down for many reasons a big Reasons Supply now a lot of people like Travis you can't look at new homes Because it's only 15% of the market but You guys when we put new homes and Existing homes together we look at Median sales price in accordly basis Prices have been going down since Q4 of 2022 look at that so if new homes didn't Matter then why would the trajectory When adding to existing homes be Plummeting and the reason is because it Does matter it matters a lot so in Conclusion you guys the housing market Right now is absolutely toxic and if it Was me there's a few things that I would Be doing obviously increasing my Purchasing power it's how we wait that Matters but I would not absolutely not Be purchasing real estate based on fear Of missing out all of these Professionals are using the fear to get You to spend money people say that I'm The fearmonger but if I'm the fear Mongerer let me explain what I'm selling I'm selling people on themselves my
Channel is not for Filthy Rich investors You guys my channel is for people at the Bottom the 90% of Americans that are one Ing what's going on that are wondering How to buy real estate and not get taken Advantage of that's what my channel is For so don't you guys don't be Purchasing real estate based on fear and Please say no say no to bad spending Habits we need to be saving right now And please I have a free home buying Class it's not free for me I pay money To provide education to the public you Can come here and you can learn for free Okay now my goal is for you to become More knowledgeful than Realtors and That's how I made my class unfortunately Again you guys we need access to MLS Once the if if ever the public gets Access to MLS I'm going to be doing so Many videos on how to use the MLS to Find a great deal but until that day you Guys you're just going to have to do the Best you can and if you're out there Investing in real estate you guys Already know I wish you luck and I hope You win
