Hey welcome back in today's video I'll Talk about red Fin's latest housing Market update just posted yesterday they Reported that average mortgage payments Just increased to the highest levels on Record so it says here daily average Rates jump to the highest level since Last November after last week's Disappointing inflation data so the CPI Report or the Consumer Price Index uh Came in much hotter than what was Expected and we saw a giant increase in Rate Um last Wednesday uh persistently high Home prices are exasperating Affordability challenges for buyers and Again average uh would be housing Payments or mortgage payments just Increased in all-time record high let's First talk about some uh leading Indications of home buying activity in Our US housing market because I didn't Make a video about this yet so here's a Look at Daily rates according to the uh Mortgage News Daily it's not 7. for I'm Making this video on the 19th of April So the average daily rate for a 30-year Fix for people with great credit is at 7.44% FHA and VA loans is around 6.92 to 6.94% uh looking at one year ago we're At 6.75% so rates have increased by 69 Basis points compared to one year ago
And what I found to be interesting Though is that um on February 1st the Average 30-year fix rate was at 6.63% now it's at nearly 1% Point higher At 7.44% so in the span of Just 2 and a Half months um daily rates have Increased by about 80 basis points which Is pretty uh phenomenal having said that We're still down compared to the peak That was a 20year high regarding rates Um back in mid October when we were at Around 8% also looking at um average Weekly rates according to Freddy Mack The average 30-year fix rate is at 7.10% according to uh Freddy Max Chief Economist he say the following as rates Trend higher potential home buyers are Deciding whether to buy before rates Rise even more or hold off on the hopes Of decreases later this year so I think Um we could see um more and more people Getting priced out or deciding to put Their plans on hold to buy a house Because rates have increased so much Over the past 2 and a half months so Therefore we could see a decrease of Contracts being signed or paying home Sales in the next coming weeks as well Time will tell and I'll definitely keep It posted also another leading Indication of home buying activity is The amount of applications to buy houses Or I should say the amount of
Applications for Home Loans to buy Houses here's another look at um a lead Indic of home buying activity this is Based on a weekly report from the MBA This covers the week ended April 12th This year so their seasonally adjusted Purchase index increased by 5% from one Week ago but it's down by 10% on a year Ofe basis this is an index which Measures the amount of people submitting Mortgage applications to buy houses so We're up from last week but still down Year-over-year according to uh the mba's Uh chiev Economist he say the following Rates increased for the second Consecutive week driven by incoming data Indicating that the economy remains Strong and inflation is proving to be Tougher to bring down despite these Higher rates applications um picked up Possibly as some borrowers decide to act In case rates continue to increase my Advice for you guys don't try to time The market because rates fluctuate on a Daily basis of course they fluctuate on A weekly basis as well um so um there's No really data showing that we're going To see a big increase in rates anytime Soon but in contrast there's no data as Well that it shows that rates will Decrease um as well so my advice for you Guys buy when it's right for you Meanwhile the share of refinance Activity um increased to
32.1% of total applications isn't that Wild that three of our 10 applications For home loan are for people who are Doing a refi and I imagine that that Figure about 3 months ago was around 90% Of refi were doing a cash out refi so I Would imagine that the vast majority of These people doing a refi are getting Cash out of their houses in order to pay For everyday living expenses all right Going back to redin support here let's Talk about redfin's home buyer demand Index this is an index which which Measures the amount of requests for home Tours and other home buying services That's down 11% on a year-year basis Which is right here last year's levels Is right here in red is 2022 and right Here is 2021 so on top of that they're Down on a year- of your basis but also At least a three-year low as well for This time frame to me this makes sense Because rates are much higher compared To a year ago and of course they're much Higher compared to 2021 and 2022 as well I believe this time in 2021 the average Rate was around 3% now we're at 7.4% also according to redin touring Activity actually increased by 33% Compared to the first week this year at This time last year it was up by only 23% also Google searches for homes for Sale were down by 177% on a year- ofe Basis and unchange compared to 1 month
Ago okay let's talk about um home prices Housing inventory pening home sales new Listings and much much more let's first Talk about uh the meeting sold price This is on a national level and redin Looks at 400 plus us metros and their Weekly data goes back to 2015 so check This out the meean sold price on a National level is at 38,2 this means we're only about $3,000 Shy of the all-time record high that was Set back in June of 2022 in my personal Opinion the reason why we're not too far Off the all-time record highs is due to A lack of houses for sale even though It's up by about 10% on a year-year Basis we still have a long ways to go And of course um uh home buying demand Is exceeding the amount of houses for Sale at least for right now that's why We're seeing home prices overall Increase on top of that the median Asking price uh increased to just over 43 $1,000 and that is an all-time record High however the share of price Reductions is also at least a three-year High for this time frame and I'll share That with you guys here in a little bit Um also the uh meean monthly mortgage Payment again all-time record high at $2,775 per month however though that's Based on the weekly rate one week ago at 6.88% for an average 30-year fix but Again according to Freddy Mack as of
April 18th that that increased to 7.10% so this number at 2,775 will likely look a lot higher next Uh week once red fin announced their new Report uh next Thursday in regards to The median sale price let's have a look At the 50 most populous metros so There's only one Metro still that is Down on a year-year basis and that is San Antonio Texas excuse me down by 1% Year-over-year meanwhile Anaheim California is up by a whopping 24.8% uh that is um in the number one Spot by a long shot here um after that We have Providence Rhode Island nasau County New York West Palm Beach Florida And New Brunswick New Jersey all right Let's change gears uh slightly here and Talk about pending home sales a measure Of contracts being sign between buyers And sellers new lessings a measure of Homeowners who are listing their houses For sale and then active listings or Housing Supply or housing inventory the Amount of houses for sale so pending Home sales decreased by 2.3% from 12 months ago but new listings Increase by 10.8% this has been a common Um uh Trend we're seeing where pending Sales on a year- ofe basis are going Down whereas new listings are going up So in on at least on a year- of- your Basis we're seeing uh Supply outpace Demand um also active listings Rose by
99.6% on of your basis and the month Supply is at 3.3 months every housing Market's different though right because The amount of pending home sales Actually increase in 14 of the 50 Biggest metros this means of course that 36 of the 50 are down on a year- ofe Basis uh the biggest increase sose California once again up by a whopping 25.6% uh the San Francisco Bay Area uh Rounding out the top three here because San Francisco up by 11% Oakland California up by 7.1% after that we have Columbus Ohio And Seattle in contrast the biggest Decrease of contracts being signed Between buyers and sellers of existing Houses was in naso County Down by 15% Then we have Atlanta Houston Riverside And for lale quite a bit different Scenario when looking at the number of New lisings because those decrease in Nine of the 50 biggest metros so what 41 Of the 50 metros are up on a year- ofe Basis um s California leading the nation By far up by about 47% then we have Sacramento California Where I live and work as a ro station Here up by about 28% Phoenix and then Jacksonville Florida and Dallas in Contra the biggest decreases of new Listings is New York New Jersey then we Have province of Rhode Island Milwaukee Chicago and Detroit all right let's take
A look at some charts let's first talk About um home prices here so as you can See this is a 2023 we're getting very Close to the all-time record highs that Was set back in June of 2022 when at that time the median sold Price was around $383,000 home prices are also up greatly Compared to the same time frame 2021 because back then the median sold Price was around $320,000 now it's at $480,000 or $380,000 I should say that's An increase of $60,000 over the past three years Meanwhile as I mentioned the median Asking price is at an all-time record High by far uh the previous all-time Record high back in 2022 for example was Around uh $400,000 now it's at $413 $1,000 also uh again average monthly Housing payments all-time record highs Which is pretty crazy right because the Previous all-time record high besides The past couple weeks here was back in October of 2023 and the average 30-year fix rate Was at 8% now according to Freddy Mack as of Last week it's at 6.88% so the increase of your average Monthly housing payment is due to Elevated rates but more importantly due To a huge increase in home prices over
The past couple of years also when Looking at pending home sales that's Down by 2.3% year of AE and that is at Least a three-year low during this time Frame and just look how this year Compares to 2022 and 21 because um Pending home sales were Rising big time Starting in February through the uh Early summer months whereas this year They were increasing but recently here Pending sales basically going flat and Again the reason for that is likely due To elevated rates and of course home Prices as well let's have a look at the Measure of new listings though because That increased by about 11% on a Year-year basis um it's higher compared To last year but much lower compared to Uh 21 and 2022 and by the way if you Guys want to see um home prices decrease Big time we want to see this uh line Basically going straight up we want to See a market in which Supply is far Outpacing demand but so far we're not Seeing that because here's a look at Active listings it is increasing but Over the past one month or so new Listings or active listings I should say Have been relatively flat having said That they're still up by 9.6% from 12 Months ago and on top of that it's at Least a threeyear high during this time Frame as well let's take a look at the Month supply that's at 3.3 months and uh
This is something caught my attention Here because um the month supply was Decreasing um ever since February but This last week it actually increase much Different compared to the past several Years so for example this time last year The month supply was decreasing through Uh mid July in regards to days in the Market uh the meeting days in the Market's at 35 days that's a time frame When you list your house for sale until You accept an offer from a home buyer That's at 35 days Um slightly faster from this time last Year at this time last year dayon Market Was at 36 days but houses are still Taking longer to sell compared 2021 and 2022 back in uh this time in 2022 days in the market was Approximately 22 to about 23 days now It's at 35 days remember when I said we Have all-time record highs for average Asking prices but on top of that we also Have at least a three-year High Regarding the share of price deductions As well according to redin the share of Price drops right now is at 5.9% and basically going straight up Over the past one month much different Compared to uh 2023 where the share price drops was Relatively flat from March through June Last year something I found to be um Interesting though is that um even
Though we have you know very close to All-time record highs for home prices Overall uh the share price drops has Been increasing big time this year we Started at around uh 3.5% now it's at um 5.9% so nearly Doubling um over the past 4 and a half Months this is um actually at a faster Pace compared to 2022 which of course back then we had um Home prices decrease in the second half Of 2022 to start the year uh in that year We were at around 1.75% in January of 2022 then increased To just under 2.5% by mid April so I'm really curious To see what the rest of year will look Like because will the share price shops Go like this or where they level off and Get to more or less on par with 2022 Levels in my personal opinion it depends On the direction of new listings housing Inventory and also um mortgage rates as Well because if rates start increasing Once again and they rise to you know 8% For example of course that's going to Take the wind out of the sales of our Spring home bind season and because of That and if we see more houses being Listed for sale and more active listings We'll see more price drops as well as More home sellers have to compete Against each other in order to get an
Offer accepted and lastly let's have a Look at the average sale price to final List price ratio that's at 99.2% so out of all the the houses that Sold over the past 1 month they sold For8 percentage points less than the Sellers final list price this is Slightly higher compared to uh 2023 when at that time the average sale Price to finalist price ratio was around 99% but this is still much lower Compared to 2022 for example so back Then the ratio was just over 102% which means that houses were Selling for about 2% % over the sellers Final list price now they're selling for Around 1% below but what's your biggest Takeaway from today's video please like And subscribe hope you guys have an Awesome day we'll see you in the next Video [Music]
