[Music] Welcome back to real estate mindset Today's video is going to be Absolutely Bonkers now the data is in And the housing market has headed down The highway to hell a th000 miles an Hour except of course for Texas who has Recently made a uturn on price decline Boulevard and you guys I'm not guessing Here it's literally almost exclusively Right now in Texas with San Antonio down 2.5% % Austin down matching San Antonio 2.5% Dallas at 0.9% Fort Worth at 8% now obviously guys I've been driving Around the nation and driving around the State of Texas trying to tell you guys That the trends of price decline are Going to follow new construction and What's been happening now we see from This article that Texas is the number One state for 14 years and running for New construction now we'll review the Redin article remember everything we're Reading is macro data and in today's Video I want you guys to be able to Answer the question where do you go to Get localized real estate data and I'm Not going to have you guys wait till the End of this video to be able to answer That question let's answer the question Right now now first of all guys I want To show you what redin is saying is Going on in Houston it's saying that Houston my own metro area is up
4.2% but there's a bigger picture behind This macro data and as of right now Really the only place place we can go to Get localized real estate data is the Multiple listing service now a lot of People get confused when I say hey I'm Looking for houses with 20% 30% wedge Under market value now the reason why so Many people get this confused is is they Look at MLS and they look at the housing Market and they see all of these Listings which by the way how much has Inventory grown in Kingwood holy smokes Inventory is exploding in Texas but a Lot of people just look at all of these Listings and they get overwhelmed but What's important to do once you have Access to the localized data is set up Your criteria now when I set up my Criteria I only want to see houses Between A1 and $120 a square foot now I'm going to go back to the map and you Guys see right away look it it's much Easier to look at the housing market now That this has been winded down to a Maximum of $120 a square foot what this Tells me is each of these listings has Anywhere between 10 to 20% in wedge Before I even negotiate so don't get Lost in headlines including the one We're about to read about new all-time Record high prices now as you can see I'm going to do this redin video a Little bit differently and I'm going to
Jump right into Data visualization and We're going to talk about all of this Week's trends that are putting more Downward pressure on home prices let's Start starting with home buyer housing Payments right here this is up you guys 7.5% year-over-year in other words we Would all have to make around 50 to 60% More income to get back to 30-year Average affordability or rather prices Would have to go down 30% but what's Going on guys is the housing market is Being locked up unaffordability because Of the interest rates and the prices Totaling massive home buying payments Sitting at $2,785 and that's at an interest rate of 6.87% now obviously with this historical High housing payments that's going to Put a lot of pressure on demand to go Down and actually we have this data set Right here that's pending sales now Pending sales is down 4% Year over-ear We're all the way down here so this is a 4year low all right for this time of Year so another set of data that is Saying demand is completely shot now Here's a beautiful thing you guys active Listings active listings is still going Up it's balanced out at about 900,000 Which is exactly where we need to be I Wanted to see us get to a million Unfortunately we're not quite there yet We should get to a million now
Regardless demand is so low right now it Doesn't matter that we have historically Low inventory except that we have to Wait longer because we see inventory Coming back to the market which means Demand is not able to absorb it anymore At least on a national average now we Also see that in months of Supply being At 3.3 months now remember you guys in 2017 okay the months of Supply was 3.7 Months in 2017 so we're 04 months away From being back to where we were from Supply standpoint to 2017 now obviously when inventory goes Up because the price is set at the Margin the price is set based on low Inventory when the inventory comes back Obviously that's going to be a Tremendous amount of pressure for those Prices to go down now this set of data You guys is huge I believe that there's Three primary leading indicators that Are telling us that we're going to have Nominal price declines in 2024 by the End of the year now those three things Are number one inventory obviously Number two days on Market being over 30 And the third one right here which is Price Cuts absolutely skyrocketing you Guys it's almost hard to Fathom it Really is hard to Fathom just how many People are price cutting but there are Still people buying we're sitting at 6.7% of homes having price Cuts that's
Absolutely insane you guys and that Passes the peak I believe or we're Matching the peak right here of 2022 now You guys know I talk about 2022 a lot Because the second half of the year we Actually had deflation in the housing Market but this is another data set that Shows us more pressure on prices is Going down now the last set of data Showing downward pressure on prices is Redin home buying Demand Being down 14% year over-year way down here and This is another 4year low for this time Of year all right guys now let's jump Into the article you guys know I like to Read the first paragraph and last Paragraph from the agent because Generally that last paragraph has Extremely Reckless optimism that I Always want you guys to be cautious About because we don't need optimism When purchasing the biggest item of our Life what we need is professionals Giving us great advice that's what we Need but the first paragraph says the Typical us home that sold during the Four weeks ending June 23rd sold for 3% Less than its asking price this marks The first time the typical home sold for Under list price this time of year since The onset of the pandemic in 2020 which Again I'm trying to tell you guys we are On a faster Pace than 2022 we are on a Faster pace of decline than 20 22 we are
Breaking seasonality right now we are Breaking it the typical home sold for Exactly its list price one year ago and Roughly 2% above its list price two Years ago which means bidding wars are Becoming more and more rare all right Let's see what the redin realtor has to Say this week I'm sure it's going to be Belittling buyers and things of that Nature now some buyers think that they Can get a deal because they're hearing The market is cool just already slaming The buyers but let's go on and some Sellers think every home will sell for Top dollar no matter the condition a Los Angeles redri Premier agent said okay so This is an LA agent in reality Everything depends on the house and the Location the hottest properties in this Area are either moveing ready or Complete fixer uppers the homes in Between those that are pretty nice but Not updated are sitting on the market Longest sellers of that type of home Often benefit from making cosmetic Repairs before listing which we offer Through redin conier service and buyers Who do encounter middle of the the road Listings without much wow factor should Consider trying to negotiate and I'm Going to tell you guys right now you Should consider trying to negotiate on Every single property but not too Recklessly optimistic let me know what
You guys think about this week's realtor Reckless optimism now as far as this Week's leading indicators we are sitting At a daily average mortgage interest Rate 30-year fixed conventional mortgage Of 7.06% that is up year-over-year which is Great stuff we did Smash the spring home Buying season although median sales Price did go up I believe that's because Median is not an accurate way to Determine value now that is up again From 6.91% year-over-year but weekly We're sitting at 6.87 so we are under 7% For the first time in a little while That's up year-over-year from 6.67% now when we look at demand you Guys demand is absolutely crushed it's a Dumpster fire right now we have a Recession even potentially a depression In the housing market right now mortgage Purchase applications are down year Over-year 133% Shocking this is worse the demand is Worse than the great financial crisis What does that tell us about the Unaffordability literally it's worse Than the collapse the unaffordability is Worse than the collapse and that's the Problem with inflation the inflation is Preventing the collapse or it has so far Overall so again red home buying demand Down 14% but online searches for homes For sale is also down 15% year-over-year
Okay guys so we went over the losers Again it's all summed up in Texas you Got to ask yourself why are all the Price declines centralized like what's Going on in Texas that's not going on in Other states and I just showed you that It's the new construction guys it Absolutely is and then plus also the Data manipulation I'm sure other states Like Florida especially they're going to Start appearing on this list rapidly and Also California but as far as the Winners let's go over the winners this Week okay Anaheim sitting at number one Once again at 16% year-over-year Increase in median sales price coun is At number two at 14.4 increase New Brunwick New Jersey at 13.8 increase and Newark New Jersey at 13.6% followed by number five West Palm Beach up 12.7% let's go ahead and finish The data visualization up but I want to Remind you guys once again the housing Market's so different you have to look At the cops don't listen to what people Are saying even opinions even attitudes Emotions don't listen to any of that Just get the raw data and just do simple Math that I constantly show you it's so Easy I want you guys to win but you guys Got to meet me halfway actually I'm just Pointing to the mountain but guys please Climb the mountain just climb it it's Not that bad just climb the mountain all
Right and part of that climb you guys is Just being patient a bit longer anyways Starting with median sales price you Guys we are up 4.9% year-over-year now remember in 2022 The record high was right here so the Only reason why all of these record new Highs is is they remove the last record New high I keep saying that because I am So disgusted at data manipulation right Now and they just reevis new home data You guys they're flip-flopping like Crazy but look at the trajectory there That trajectory looks monstrous as far As like this trajectory it looks Monstrous but one of the reasons that is Is the higher end of the median those Transactions are growing so more million Dooll houses are selling and the lower End of the median less growth is there So that's kind of why you see that but Regardless you guys we are up 4.9% Year-over-year that is of course until They revise the data now median asking Price did take up week over a week we're Up 6.1% year-over-year now generally That leads sold price although it has Been flatlined for almost two months and That has not LED median sold price so It's very very interesting but Regardless you guys we're sitting at Four almost 415,000 as far as the asking Price all right so here's new listings Of homes for sale and pay attention to
What I'm about to tell you here we are Up year-over-year 8.2% that's great but I also want to bring to your attention Where we were in 2021 and in 2022 we Were way up here you guys we almost had About 20,000 more listings per report so I'm bringing that up because yes it's Great that we have inventory growth but There is a heck of a lot of people that Are still golden handcuffed on the Sidelines I want you to really think About what I'm saying so we may be in a Situation to where at the same time Prices go down interest rates go down And inventory explodes this is what I Believe is going to happen Okay we go Into recession job loss happens okay Price decline interest rates decline Inventory explodes because the golden Handcuff effect will be even further Broken think about it you guys be Patient and in the meantime work on your Purchasing power regardless let's go Back in we're almost done and Before I Let You Go I want to give you a Cautionary tail I just got an email and I'm going to try to do an interview but I had someone reach out it was a viewer And she asked her realtor to do a market Analysis to show her what the comps are Showing as far as prices she's basically Doing what I asked her and I want to Caution you guys on this Behavior Instead of the realtor stepping up and
Taking 5 to 10 minutes to get this Report to her the realtor shamed and Belittled her and told her prices will Never go down and if you're real serious You're going to put an offer in right Now you guys that's the type of attitude And mindset that is out there on the Regular and I'm telling you now unless You properly prepare yourself if you Don't keep your guard up the entire time If you don't work on your purchasing Power you may find the deals of a Lifetime your dream deal and it may pass You bu so get disciplined right now work In your purchasing power and even if You're losing it a little bit because The inflation right we're all losing Purchasing power just don't lose it Forever don't lose it for good it could Be shaved down because during recession We could build it up a little bit if we Need it the main thing here is is we Don't want to lose it to late payments Overcharging credit cards bankruptcies Foreclosure repo anything in other words You guys never ever be late on anything And that's the last thing I'd like to Say for you guys I really hope you like This video I'm really feeling this Crappy office I can't wait to show you Guys the good Studio this is so crappy There's a bear though that's pretty cool Cuz I'm bearish that bear will mess you Up okay that bear will mess you up right
There and I'm not talking about that Stuffed animal I'm talking about this Bear I'm just kidding I won't you guys Know I'll get beat up really easy I'll Snap like a toothpick okay but anyways Don't beat me up all right you can beat Me up in the comment section and by the Way real quick I don't know what's up With the censorship okay but here's what I'm doing on the comment section I'm Just going to let it go I started Thinking about this I don't want any Censorship because these agencies are Doing it for us I mean think about when We won't even have any trolls left I Mean you better start appreciating the Trolls right now because one day you Guys we're going to be so suppressed so Censored that trolling is going to be Illegal and so I say if you want to go In the comment section and say how I'm Wrong and complain and whine I say you Know what it's your god-given American Right and you go ahead and you do that Now other than that guys if you're out There investing a that you guys already Know I wish you luck and I do hope you Win
