What a remarkable housing market we have Right now the share of price reductions Just reached an all-time record high Inventory is up by double digits yet Home prices are very close to all-time Record highs but I have some news to Share regarding some future indications Of home buying demand and close home Sales based on a new report from the National associate rors which showed us That pending home sales a measure of Contracts being signed between buyers And sellers reach a new all-time record Level for data that goes back all the Way until 2001 so the level of contracts Being signed right now are worse than The Great Recession of 2008 I have a lot to share in today's Video let's go and Dive Right In uh this Report from Redfin is uh was just posted Today which is August 29th it says Falling rates have yet to improve home Sales so we're seeing this environment Which rates are decreasing yet sales are Not improving we'll talk about that here In a little bit pending home sales Posted their biggest year decrease in Nearly a year despite the meean US Housing payment dropping to its lowest Level in about 5 months so decreasing Your average monthly housing payment is Not due to the fact that prices are Cratering it's due to the fact that Rates are going down making your average
Housing payment a little bit less would Be home buyers are waiting for clarity About the Nar settlement the national Associate RoR settlement uh regarding Commissions the presidential election And weather rates will fall more so Please leave me a comment below your Thoughts regarding that are you guys Also waiting on the sidelines due to any Of these reasons as well I'd love to Know so according to redin here it says Sales are not improving because many Would be home buyers are playing the Waiting game redin agents report that House hunters are out there touring Houses so people look into houses yet They're hesitant to buy right now would Be buyers are waiting for one or all the Following so let me know if this Pertains to you on the Nar settlement The new rules of how agents buyers and Sellers negotiate agent fees or agent Commissions went into effect on August 17th about a week and a half ago so if You guys missed my previous video I Posted about uh two days ago we went in Great detail regarding that settlement But there's two main things that happen There I'll briefly say it because this Is very important number one as an agent Listing at home for sale I cannot put What the commission is being offered to The home buyer there's no longer a field On the multiple listing service or the
MLS so agents can't filter by the Commissions being off offered they can't Delete uh listings that are offering a Low commission because that field is Entirely gone that's number one also Number two is that if you're looking to Buy house before you actually look at Any houses um if you want tour houses For with an agent you have to sign a Buyer broker agreement those are the two Things that are basically new due to This settlement which again just went Into effect about we can half ago it Also says here that some home buyers um Have been scared off by agents falsely Claiming that the new ner rules require An exclusive buyer representation Agreement just a tour house so let's Just kind of clarify this there are a Number of different agreements that you Could sign with your agent I imagine This is going to actually vary by the State so the California associat rors Which is where I'm located here in the Greater Sacrament area uh they have a Number of different new forms they have To sign prior to touring any houses but It does not have to be necessarily an Exclusive agreement it can be a Non-exclusive agreement in which you can Sign that agreement with 100 agents if You wanted to um so it's either Non-exclusive or exclusive um there's a Checkbox for that also this new
Agreement is also um stipulating in Detail in writing uh the fees that the Agent is asking for to be paid whether By the seller or by the agent that could Be fixed amount it could be a percentage Of the um the purchase price or it could Be a set dollar amount per hour that's Being charged by the agent and again if You missed my previous video we went Into great detail regarding this and how Um different structures regarding how um Buyers could pay for agent fees or agent Commissions if the seller is not willing To pay for those so far based on my own Personal experience um actually just Wrote an offer for a client about 2 days Ago and we wrote in there um for the uh Seller to pay for my um agent fee or my Buyer agent fee and we got a a counter Offer back and the um seller did not Counter out that um stipulation that We're asking them to pay for my buyer Broker um fee so I'm not seeing a lot of Push back from sellers just yet but I Imagine that's going to vary by the area And potentially by the house as well in Any case another reason why some home Buyers may be kind of waiting on the Sidelines according to redin here is Lower home prices lower rates And of course the outcome of the Presidential election if you guys are Looking for home prices to decrease I Get it um and also I mentioned that
Because we're very close to uh record Highs that was set back in July so home Prices overall on a national level are Very close to all-time record highs but In today's video I'll share the seven Metros uh in the US at the 50 most pop List that are down on a yeary year basis Uh if you guys are waiting for lower Rates I would urge you to buy sooner Rather than later because when rates Decrease that's going to cause a lot of These home buyers to get off the Sidelines which will increase Potentially the amount of offers being Received so it could be a more Competitive market um in an environment In which rates are decreasing this is a Very important to note here as well it's Worth noting that if mortgage rates drop Significantly that could lead to more Competition and of course higher home Prices and also again if you guys are Waiting for the FED to start cutting Interest rates potentially in September The mortgage rates we're seeing today Have already baked into the fact that The FED may cut rates in September so It's not like the FED decreases rates And then that day uh mortgage rates Decrease the rates today have already Accounted for that expectation that the FED will decrease rates next month all Right let's change here slightly here And talk about some future indications
Of Home bind demand so the average daily Rate as of uh yesterday which was August 28th uh decreased to 6.3 7% that was the lowest level since Approximately April of 2023 excluding one single day which was The first week of August one day in Early August so basically at a 1 and a Half year low uh down from the 7.29% we Saw one year ago now as of today which Again is on Thursday August 29th the Average daily rate according to the Mortgage News Daily for people with Great credit of course uh decreased to Or increased to 6 . 41% jumbo is at 6.6% FHA Loans is around 5.8% let's have a look at this chart uh The daily rate right now at 6.41% is actually the third lowest um Levels since approximate April of 2023 before that was yesterday at 6.37% and also on August 5th when it Decreased to 6.34% one year ago this time we're at 7.12 2% so rates have decreased by about 71 basis points from 12 months ago let's Also take a look at mortgage purchase Applications from the MBA that did Increase by 1% from 1 week ago but we're Still down by 9% from 12 months ago also Google searches for homes for sale I Think it's supposed to be homes not home For sale um was an increase of 10% from One month ago but we're still down by 3%
Year-over-year now here's something I I Just kind of laugh laugh at when I read This this morning we excluded normally Right here You' see or kind of in this Section here you would see red Fin's Home buyer demand index which is a Measure of request for home tours and Other home buying Services um from their Agents uh it says here we excluded their Uh their Index this week to ensure the Accuracy of our data it'll be back next Week like what in the world is going on Um so here is a report from not that Right here this is a report from one Week ago and you can see right here red Fins home buyer demand index was up by 4% from a month ago but down by 8% Year-over-year so it should be right Above touring activity um but this year Or this week I should say it disappeared Now here's the funny thing kind of laugh At this right you would think that There's no data regarding this index Because it's not here but if you go down To the very bottom of the support Red fin red fin red fin it's right Here it's just laughable so they do have The the the data because this report Covers the four weeks ended August 25th For all these stats in today's video and They have the chart right here so I Don't know why they don't mention this But it is down 12% year-over-year U Because you can see here it was up last
Week which is right here it did increase Um last week but before that this week It actually decrease so we're down 12% Uh year ofe whereas last week we're down By 8% year-over year anyways isn't that Kind of funny they actually still shared Their chart but they had to provide this Verbiage here that's saying that they Want to make sure it's accurate but why Would you still share their chart if you Don't think it's accurate or not I don't Know just Mak sense to me moving Ond that's crazy um so one thing I want To mention as well is that uh another Future IND of home buying demand of Course is pending home sales and today Which again is August 29th um the National Association rors uh not Requested posted their pending home sale Index for the month of July and and Based on this report it says here that Pening home sales dropped by 5.5% in July but of course I have a lot More to share regarding that I'll Provide a link uh in the video Description below for this but they Don't provide a whole lot analysis Regarding this um this uh index but they Did say here that was the lowest reading Um since it began tracking this data Back in 2001 so therefore their pending Home sale index a measure of contracts Being signed of existing houses fell to A new all-time record low for D that
Goes back through the year of 2001 so Contracts being signed right now are Worse than 2008 when of course we had The great re session for comparison sake The all-time record high was set back in August of 2020 when their index was at 128 obviously High number means that Buyers were getting the offers accepted There's a lot of paining home sales and Of course a low number means there a Lack thereof which implies a you know Low level of close home sales in the Coming months as well right so 70.2 Right now uh very very low the previous Record low was set back in May at 70.9 Let's also have a look at rates for the Month of July as well because that's When contracts were being signed right Back in July uh from this support so Back in July the average uh monthly rate According to Freddy Mech on our good Uncle Fred was at 6.85% that was a 3-month low the lowest Level since March this year when we were At 6.82% therefore the decreasing rates From around 7.06% back in May down to around 6. 85% % did not uh cause more contracts being Signed between buyers and sellers in Fact it fell to a new all-time record Low in my opinion the reason for this uh You know Fallout in uh contracts being Signed right now is really to the fact
That we have you know relatively high Home prices very close to the all-time Record high that was set just about one Or two months ago so we have that so of Course a small decrease in rates is not Really improving housing affordability Very much on top of that we have the Presidential election we have this Nar Settlement to try to figure out you know How is our that's going to affect our Housing market time Motel all these Things that are impacting overall people Basically sitting on the sidelines right Now here's something also I found Interesting as well so their their index Uh which by the way is seasonly adjusted It's also analyzed as well making it Very easy to compare month over Monon Changes here so that fell by 88.5% compared to July of 2023 this is pretty crazy here right it Now has decrease in 36 in the past 38 Months so in about 3 years there's only Been 2 months in which their pening home Sale index increased compared to the Previous year in fact the last time it Increased was way back in June of 2021 therefore home sales have been Sinking to very low levels for quite Some time the crash in sales that Occurred in 2023 when for the year as a whole we Basically had nearly a three decade low The lowest level since
1995 really haven't made much of Recovery just yet also the year- ofe Change uh down by 88.5% is much worse Than the long run average but it's not As bad as what happened one year ago uh About last year back in July 2023 we saw A giant decrease down by 15% compared to July of 2022 now we're down by only 8.5% In other words Penny home sales are Still decreasing but the rate is not as High as it was one year ago so based on My nerdy Excel formula here the median Number of their index going back to the Year of 2010 uh this is the July year- Of your change is a decrease of 0.1% That's a normal amount of changes in Contracts being signed between July and July each and every year since 2010 is a Decrease of. 1% this year it fell by 8.5 % so much worse than the longer average Even though it's not as down as great Compared to one year ago when it Decreased by 15% on top of that uh it decreased by 5.5% compared to June much worse than The historical average because the med Number since 2010 is a gain of 05% this year it decreased by 5.5% on top of that looking at preo Levels were down by 34% from July of 2019 and down by 33% from 2018 so Basically what this all means is that We're going to see a low level of close Home sales in the coming months because
Of you know basically a lack of Transactions being occurred or being Signed between buyers and sellers on a National level one more thing I want to Mention regarding pending home sales is That every Market is different so NE has Four major regions that's the Northeast The Midwest the South and the West so Here's why I found to be interesting There's only one region that posted a Gain either month-to month or year year That was the Northeast saw a gain of 2.4% from 12 months ago all other Regions posted decreases in fact the Biggest declines occurred in the midwest Down by 11.4 in the South decreased by 11.5% on a month-to-month basis June Compared to July all these regions Posted decreas es in fact the biggest Decline was was actually in the midwest Down by 7.8% all right let's get back to Refen report and let's talk about the Median sale price so we're just under uh $390,000 that's up by 3.6% Year-over-year uh about 1,000 um higher Compared to one week ago but down by About $6,000 from the all-time record Highs that was set during the Forex Ended July 7th so basically have nearly All-time record highs right now which is Likely impacting pening home sales right When we look at the 50 most popless Metros there's now seven metros that are Down year-over-year last week in fact
There was actually only five metros so Seven metros are Austin Texas down by 2.8% Fort Worth Texas down by 1.5 then We have Tampa s Francisco that's a new One San Diego is also a new one as well I believe down by 3% Antonio also down By 3% and National Tennessee uh Experienc a decrease of. 1% Year-over-year in contrast the biggest Increases were Philadelphia up by Whopping 15.1% I have no idea about the Philadelphia housing market but if you Guys have any insight regarding what's Happening there um please leave me a Comment below because that uh gain is Huge especially compared to Austin down By nearly 3% um after that we have Milwaukee Anheim uh NSU County New York I'm probably mispronouncing that uh up By 9.7 and Province Rhode Island up by 8.5% so big picture 43 of the 50 biggest Metros have posted gains year-over year Only seven are down all right for the Four weeks ended August 25th let's have A look at pending home sales new Listings and active listings as well as The month supply so pending home sales Decreased by 6.9% the biggest decrease since October Of 2023 I would say the biggest yearly Decrease since October last year um new Listings IM measure people listing their Houses for sale uh that actually
Increased by 3% so new listings are not Skyrocketing uh but we're seeing a big Uh or I should say a significant Decrease of contracts being signed Despite the fact that there's 16. 7% More homes for sale right now but that Was the smallest increase since April This year also the month supply is at 3.6 months a more balanced housing Market is probably in the range of Around 4 months Supply um right now Let's take a look at Red Fin's data Center regarding new Supply H in the Market first so again that increased by 3% year-over-year um basically losing Momentum to be honest with you guys Because back in April for example we saw A gain of nearly 14% so this is uh the orange line is This year the line below that was last Year 2023 the black line is 22 and the Darker orange or lighter red is 2021 so we saw a big increase of new Supply hitting the market this spring But ever since the summer months Basically losing momentum and a small Gain of 3% year-over-year That's new Supply hit in the market Here's pending home sales kind of an Opposite scenario because pending home Sales were very close to last year's Levels basically all all year but over The past couple weeks now has been going Down at a faster clip compared to last
Year now it's down by 6.9% Year-over-year the previous week was Only down by 5.2% in regards to active listings um Active listings have basically peaked This year actually peaked early this Year than it normally does so right now Uh we have approximately 177% more Existing house of sale right now Compared to one year AG go which is Actually a small gain compared to the uh 20 to 22% gains we saw in the mid summer Months so at 16.74% this is actually the smallest Yearor gain we've had going all the way Back until the Forex ended um April 14th Back then we saw a gain of 16.5% let's also take a look at the 50 Most popess metros and see how they Faire because of course every Market's Different regarding Penning sales and Then we'll have a look at new Supply in The market or new listings so San Francisco led the nation uh regarding Pending home sales giant increase of 99.1% after that was Boston San Jose California Los Angeles California and Riverside California so uh four of the Top um the top five markets are located In California the guys might missed my Previous video regarding the California Housing market I made a video about 4 Days ago um so um take a look at that Because overall in California we're very
Close to all-time record highs in home Prices and of course we have far fewer Homes for sale right now compared to 2019 much different compared to the glut Inventory in Texas Arizona and Florida For example looking at the biggest Declines of pending sales that's Actually in West Palm H Florida down by 16.3 then we have Atlanta Miami Fort Lawdale Florida down by 15% and then um Tampa Florida down by 14.5% looking at new listings that Increased the most in San Diego up by 15.2 then we have Los Angeles San Jose Phoenix and Montgomery County Pennsylvania in contrast there's 14 Metros that are down year-over year uh The biggest decline in newless scenes is Atlanta Georgia down by nearly 177% Austin Texas down by 8.9 San Antonio Down by 8.2 uh New York New Jersey 7.2 And Tampa Florida down by nearly 7% all Right let's also talk about how fast or How slow houses are selling right now The meean days in the market is at Actually 35 days this is much higher Compared to one year ago which is in Orange uh back then at this time it took About 30 days to sell a house now it's At 35 days so house has taken about 5 Days longer to sell right now it's also Worth noting here that days in the Market is basically at least a three Your high right now also the share of
Price deductions also reached a new All-time record high at 6.8% higher compared to the previous Peak uh that was set I think it was last Week but also very close still to the Peak that was set back in November of 2022 and this is easily a at least a Three-year high as well the share price Drops back in 21 was only at 3.5% and basically we're double that Share right now at 6 .8% and lastly the Average sale price to final list price Ratio is at 99.1% this means on average of all the Houses that actually did close uh in the Past four weeks they sold for .9 Percentage points less than the sellers Final list price I said that right the First time uh that is at least a Threeyear low right now much lower Compared to last year not much lower but Lower still uh last year this time as Well as 2022 and 21 houses on average Were selling a little bit over asking um So for example back in uh at this time Last year uh that ratio was just over 100% same goes for 22 in 2021 that ratio was very close to 2% Which means homes were selling about 2% Over asking now they're selling for About 1 percentage points less than Asking right now uh but that's today's Video thank you so much for watching Today's video I appreciate you so much
Please like And subscribe also if you Guys want a real estate agent referral Uh check out my website which is real Estate TEF finder.com or if you want to Buy or sell home in the greater Sacrament area approximately 90% of our Clients actually come from YouTube Believe it or not you can email me at Jasonjason walter.com hope you guys have An amazing day I appreciate you guys so Much and we'll see you in the next video [Music] [Music]
