Some very big changes are happening Right now to the US housing market so For example inventory has increased by About 36% compared to one year ago also We're seeing the share price reductions Also increasing as well to at least a Fiveyear high during the same time frame Which is the end of June I have a lot to Share in today's video let's go ahead And Dive Right In and of course before We get started if you guys want a real Estate agent referral anywhere Nationwide please email me at Json meet Jason walter.com or check out my website Which is real estate TEF finder.com I I I know it's a challenging market for Home buyers but there's still people Looking to buy a house also there's lots Of people looking to sell their houses Right now because we're seeing new Listings Rising year V year for quite Some time as well any case here is the Latest report from uh realtor.com just Posted yesterday at the time I filming This video but just like my previous Videos I did not even read it however I Will provide a link in the video descrip Below so please let me know your Thoughts regarding if my analysis of Their data agrees to what they're saying As well I don't even read theirs anyways Go to uh their what is this Realtor.com Researchdata click on weekly inventory
And then click on that link right there It takes you more or less to this Information asking prices inventory Newless scenes days in the market and Also the number of price reductions Compared to one year ago these are all The year- Vie changes on a national Level so the most recent stats we have Actually I missed one week ago so this Is actually the first time made this Video in about two weeks anyways the Most recent uh data we have from them is The uh week ended June 22nd this year Asking prices were flat last week have Been flat for about one month now uh Which is pretty astonishing in in fact Asking prices have been relatively flat Ever since February this year due to Rising inventory levels and 7% mortgage Rates which of course is keeping home Sales at I think it's fair to say Rock Bottom levels stagnant growth of asking Prices leads prices of close home sales In the coming months so you can't see You know runaway price growth if asking Prices are flat uh we saw runaway price Growth uh right after the onset of covid In late 2020 especially 2021 we asking Prices and close home prices were Increasing big time each and every month But right now for about one month now We're seeing stagnant growth of asking Prices on a national level of course Every housing Market's different though
Right and I'll share a little bit Regarding that in today's video and by The way at the end of this video I'll Provide a summary of what um of these Findings and also kind of a snapshot About what happened uh in our us saling Market over the past one week I missed Last week because I actually was in Toronto for about about a week um but I Made a lot of videos before I left That's why you guys saw videos last week Anyways and by the way they have a lot Of inventory in Toronto uh Canada by the Way a big increase because a 30-year fix Is virtually non-existent there they Basically have a 30-year amortized a Loan but it's only fixed for five years So you have to reassess it every five Years which is wild I told them we have A 30-year fix rate morgage that was like Whoa that's crazy anyways yeah I Couldn't imagine buying a house there if Your payment and your rate you basically Can change um every five to seven years I just can imagine by I tried to make a Video that while I was there but I I Didn't have time unfortunately anyways Let's talk about uh inventory levels Because inventory increased by 36.1% year-over a year uh besides the Week ended May 25th that's the largest Year- ofe increase since April 2023 also there's been more House of Sale this year compared to last year for
The past 33 consecutive weeks that goes Back to Mid November last year this of Course is good news for home buyers we Want to see more houses for sale giving More home buyers more options which of Course limits the growth rate in home Prices however though even though even Tour has increased by 36% it is not Skyrocketing uh partially due to the Fact that new listings are actually Slowing down or I should say the growth Rate of newless scenes is actually Slowing down and more than that here in A little bit also inventory has been Increasing due to two main reasons we're Seeing more new listings compared to Last year even though it's slowing down As of late and also we're seeing a very Low level of close home sales as well Now if you guys follow Channel you guys All know I I track multiple sources um Of data so here is uh inventory According to alos research.com Fantastic Website if you guys want to learn about You know housing Trends on National Level Statewide level but also for each Of the major metros as well so for uh Last year to say uh June 23rd last year There's approximately 461000 existing house for sale Nationwide now there's 634 th000 so we Have approximately 173,000 more existing house for sale Compared to 12 months ago that's an
Increase of 38% now something that U that um caught My attention and I of course I've been Making this video for you guys for what Two three years maybe Um the growth rate of inventory has been Paid at 38% so uh we we're not seeing uh Inventory decreasing compared to last Year but not increasing as well it's Basically moving in line for the past Month uh with the same time frame in 2023 that's why the growth rate has been Paid at a gain of 38% for the past 3 Weeks but wait there's more because I Actually want to look at the growth rate Of inventory so far this year compared To last year so there's approximately 135,000 more homes for sale right now Compared to the start this year by my Own analysis of alos research.com data And that represents a 27% growth rate so far this year compare That to last year during the same time Frame inventory decreased by 2% so this Year Rising by 207% last year down 2% so In other words Supply was down last year But inventory has been on the rise so Far this year also in looking at monthly Data from uh r.com inventory has been Rising faster compared to 2017 18 and 19 It's up by about 18% from January Through May this year compared to a gain Of only 9% on average from 2017 through
2019 for January through May however the Growth rate so far this year is not Rising as fast as 2022 because inventory Started Skyrocket in May of 2022 due to rates moving from about 3% To about 5% in a matter of a few months And of course because of that rise of uh Rates that caused inventory levels to Skyrocket because sales basically fell Off a cliff so to summarize inventory is Not only up by 38% year of year but it's Also Rising faster compared to preco Levels will that change given the small Rise of new listings or will home sales Drop causing inventory to increase Further time will tell and I'll Definitely give you posted regarding That um also looking at inventory levels Compared to same week of 2019 we're Still down greatly down by about 33% Right now so here's a look at alos Research.com regarding inventory as you Can see right here um 634 th000 much Higher compared to last year but also This is really a three-year High because It's higher than last year higher than 2022 and 21 but not nearly as high as 2020 and 2019 uh back then we had approximately 947 th000 House of sale now we only have 634 th000 inventory has been rising Faster so far this year compared to last Year but it's not increasing at the same Rate as we saw in
20122 when we had our last housing Market correction so one of the reasons Why inventory has On The Rise is due to This right here so excluding the Easter Holiday week new listings have been Higher compared to same time frame one Year ago for the past 34 consecutive Weeks a new trend though and this is Causing kind of stagnant growth rate of Inventory is that the growth rate of new Lines has completely lost momentum this Is because new lines has only been Increasing by single digits less than 10% for the past eight cons consecutive Weeks in contrast we saw double digigit Gains of newless scenes compared to one Year ago for much of February in March This is slowing down the growth rate of Housing inventory as discussed um Previously and because we're not seeing The growth rate of inventory levels Skyrocket this is putting less downward Pressure on home prices so stay tuned Though because this could be an entirely Different scenario if newes were surging For example let's just say that new were Increasing by 30% instead of a gain of 7.4% that would cause inventory to Skyrocket as well which could um get us Into a scenario in which Supply is far Outpacing I mean like far far outpacing Than demand and that would cause home Prices to decrease as well but right now We're seeing singled digit gains of new
Lisings um before that we saw double Digit gains from basically uh February Through the end of April and because of This uh single digit gain of nines this Is one of the reasons why inventory Levels have been more or less paid at Around 35% for about two months and Again this would look a lot worse if new Listings were obviously skyrocketing Which of course would cause upward Pressure on uh inventory levels as well Okay let's change here slightly here and Talk about days in the market or how Fast or how slow houses are selling last Week it took 2 days longer to sell a House compared to one year ago this is Actually a big change because for the Past two months houses are taking longer To sell compared to the same time frame 12 months ago last week houses on Average again took two days longer to Sell this is much different compared to October 2023 through March this year Where houses on average were selling Faster compared to the previous 12 Months let's watch this closely in the Months ahead because if inventory Becomes more stale this would lead to More price reductions as well speaking Of price reductions price drops Increased by 52.2% year-over-year also the number of Price drops has been higher compared to Last year for the past 22 consecutive
Weeks this is likely due to the um you Know big increase of inventory up by 36% And of course elevated mortgage rates as Well which of course is keeping home Sales at relatively I just not not say Relatively Keeping home sales at very very low Levels let's take a look at Alto Research.com for the share of price Reductions according to them for the Week ended June 21th 1 the share price Shops is at 30 c% so basically oneir of All houses for sale right now Nationwide Have already reduced the asking price That's a share price shops um at 37% this at least a 5year high during The same time frame going back to at Least least uh the first week of 2019 however it's lower compared to the Peak which was set back in more or less Uh mid November at 43% uh back in November of 2022 one Thing keep in mind though is that the Share price reductions tends to Peak During the winter months and here we are In basically the hard of spring combine Season and we're getting very close to The peak of last year at 39% which back Then was back in mid November as well All right if you guys are still watching Today's video I appreciate you guys so Much please hit like button but I also Want to provide a summary of today's Video as well because of course that was
A lot of numbers to go over it so number One the growth rate of asking prices Nationwide I should say for the nation As a whole has stalled since February This year this is likely due to a Significant rise of housing Supply and Elevated mortgage rates as well speaking Of of housing Supply uh housing Inventory increased by 36% last week that was one of the Biggest year- ofe increases since April Of 2023 this rise of inventory is caused By a drop in home sales and a rise of New lisings from the previous year However there's still 33% fewer house Ofer sale right now compared to 2019 Real estate is local and Regional though Right every housing markets different so As of May the state of Texas has more Existing houses for sale SC compared to May of 2019 so more or less what a 5-year high In the state of Texas uh they have Approximately 2% more house over sale Compared to preco levels that's based on Um Ry Club analytics.com using um real Stc's latest data on top of that Florida Arizona and Idaho are not too far off Behind as well uh Florida is only down By 5% compared to uh May of 2019 Iona is Only down by 2% in Idaho is only down by 1% now speaking of that here's resic Club.com a map of the US here looking at Inventory this may compared to May of
2019 so again Texas is up by 2% Idaho Not too far off behind also Arizona not Too far off behind as well Florida only Only down by 4 and a half% whereas in California where I live and work as a Real estate agent in the greater Sacramento area we're only or we are Down by 39% so much different compared To Texas for example um but the Northeast is one of the regions here in The US that has the lowest amount of Inventory compared to pre-co levels so For example Maine inventory is down by a Whopping 60% also in Connecticut inventory is Down by 707 per. quite the difference Compared to Texas up by 2% from 5 years Ago the reason why closely fall Inventory especially compared to 2019 18 And 17 is because this is a really good Indication of the healthiness of the Housing market right so in Texas there's Four metros according to red fin in Which home prices I mean the med and so Price is down year-over-year there's Only four metros out of the 50 most Populous Nationwide in which prices are Down year- ofe and four of them all four Of them I should say are located in Texas Likely due to the significant rise of Inventory there compared to other Markets any case getting back to my Analysis here number three uh 78% of
Homeowners who have a mortgage on their House are locked into an interest rate Below 5% that's based on a data from Freddy Mack through January this year There this of course has been limiting The amount of houses for sale and thus Keeping house inventory well below 2019 Levels new Lins are higher compared to Last year but we're still seeing only Singled digigit gains of new linges for The past two months let's watch the rate Of increase of inventory in the coming Months number four the share price Reductions is at least a fiveyear high During the same time frame and has been Rising faster than 2023 number five last week houses on Average took 2 days longer to sell Compared to the previous year uh that is A lag indicator though because that's a Base on a closed home sale but wait There's more one thing I didn't mention In today's video is rates so average Mortgage rates for a 30-year fix are Well below October 2023 is rates at 8% Right now at the time of filming this Video which is on uh Friday June 28th The average 30e fix according to the Mortgage News Daily is around 7% also we Have a housing affordability crisis Right now uh basically housing Affordability is very close to all-time Record lows due to a double whammy Record high home prices and elevated
Rates number two the most recent stats We have um regarding application numbers To buy houses this is from the MBA um People uh applying for mortgages to buy Houses that decreased by 133% Year-over-year for the week ended June 21st that's from the MBA also the National Association rors reported that Pending home sales for existing houses In May fell % year-over-year and also it Fell to a new record low excluding the Onset of covid their data by the way Goes back through 2001 so basically the Level of pending home sales is more or Less at a 23-year low and by the way I Did not make a video regarding that but I probably will next week because uh That um report basically showed how We're going to see a very low level of Close home sales in the coming months Due to the fact that that pening home Sales are basically at all-time record Lows going back to 2001 so we're going To see this environment in which um Transactions are few and far between Because we're we're seeing a lack of Contracts being signed right now every Market's different though right this is Just National Trends in addition new Home construction sales which is from The US sens bro they Define a new home Sale as a sales agreement sign between a Buyer and home builder or a deposit Taken by the home builder so this is
More acting like a pending home sale Than a closed home sale for a brand new House that decrease a whopping 177% Year-over-year in May I made a separate Video about that a few days ago so check A look take a look at that because this Is a big big decrease new new home sales Decrease by double digits compared to April but they also decrease by 177% From 12 months ago therefore home Builders offering closing cost credits Lower mortgage rates and free Builder Upgrades did not help boost home sales In May what's also staggering about this Is that the drop in new home sales is I Mean it's a laughable because there's More new houses for sale this may than Any other month going back to February Of 2008 did you guys hear me inventory The highest levels since 2008 regarding New home construction but sales decrease A whopping 177% in May can you see uh-oh Number three looking forward for the Nation as a whole asking prices are flat Inventory is up significantly homes are Sitting on the market slightly longer Compared to one year ago and we're Seeing a rise in price drops all these Metrics points to a softening housing Market but it could look a lot lot worse Right if mortgage rates were um were Basically skyrocketing let's just say They were rising to 8% plus again and if New listings were also skyrocketing as
Well that would be a recipe for disaster Causing inventory to basically Skyrocket Which of course would cause prices to Fall we're not seeing that right Inventory has been increasing but as I Shared with you guys inventory is Basically Rising the same rate last year For about one or two months we're also Seeing new listings only increasing by Single digits it's not skyrocketing and That is all limiting any price Corrections that could be ahead plus Every house market is different Inventory in California and the Northeast part of the United States as I Shared is down greatly compared to Pre-co levels whereas inventory is Piling up in Texas number four the most Important one of course especially if You guys are still watching today's Video I appreciate you guys um but yeah Thank you so much for watching today's Video if you guys want a real estate Agent referral Anywhere Nationwide uh check out my Website which is real estate TEF Finder.com also please subscribe if you Haven't done so already I post frequent Housing market updates in an unbiased Manner I hope you guys agree with that Um so you guys can make a more informed Decision about whether to buy or sell a House with that said I appreciate you Guys have an awesome day and we'll see
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