Some very interesting Dynamics are Happening right now to the US housing Market this is based on my own analysis Of realor.com latest data just posted Last week so in today's video I'm going To talk about what's happening right now Regarding home prices hous inventory new Lis scenes and of course price Reductions as well stay tuned at the Very end of this video I'll share a Summary and also some thoughts regarding What has happened uh in our housing Market over the past several weeks so Here's the article from realtor.com this Is a weekly video I made for you guys But this is actually the first time in About 3 weeks that I made this uh for You guys so I'm catching up here so this Is just posted on September 19th but I Did not even read that uh this is the Article from them instead I'll provide a Link below for that instead go to R.com Researchdata click on weekly inventory And then click on that link right there It takes you more or less this Information so the most recent Trends we Have from then is for the week ended September 14th which was my birthday Coincidentally so asking prices Decreased by 1.1% compared to 1 year ago So asking prices have been down or flat For the past 16 consecutive weeks we're No longer seeing strong home price
Growth like we saw in 2020 through early 2022 because inventory is up greatly Compared to one year ago home prices are Also flattening now as well due to um Home sale volume at relatively low Levels as well in my opinion home prices And or rates would have to decrease Further in order to see a significant Rise in home sales as many home buyers Are either you know waiting on the Sidelines for rates and prices to fall Or they're priced out of this housing Market all right speaking of housing Inventory um I have a lot to share Regarding that because last week Inventory increased by 33 % from the Same time frame in 2023 so now inventory has been higher Compared to the previous year for the Past 45 consecutive weeks pretty wild Right we have more inventory compared to The previous 12-month period uh going All the way back until November last Year so of course this is good news if You're a home buyer you have more option To choose from at least looking at Trends on a national level so you Therefore have more negotiating power as Well in an environment in which Inventory is basically tanking you it's Falling off a cliff uh you have multiple Offers and therefore you don't have a Whole lot of uh bargaining power when You're placing offers on houses but
Right now inventory is up by 33% from Last year therefore home buyers have More options of course they have more uh Negotiating power as well real estate is Local though so we're seeing a glut of Supply in areas like in Texas and Florida but a lack of houses for sale in The Northeast for example so that's the Good news you have more houses to choose From more inventory compared to last Year however though the bad news is that The year Vie growth rate of housing Inventory has basically been stagnant For the past four months going all the Way back until miday when inventory has Been increasing in the range of Technically 33% to 38% everever since Miday this year also the 33% gain we saw Last week was the smallest increase your Year since the week ended April 20th This year therefore here's the key Takeaway inventory growth has been Stagnant mainly from a lack of new Supply hitting the market or a lack of New listings hitting the market so for Example ever since early may this year New listings have been up from a year Ago by only single digits so therefore New Supply here in the market new new Lines has been increasing by less than 10% and that's been going on ever since Early May this year prior to that Inventory was on the rise by more than 10% for the past two consecutive months
Back then I'll share some news regarding A new Supply uh here in a little bit but First want to go over my own analysis of Alos research.com data because I want to Share the growth rate of inventory this Year compared to years past so according To them one year ago we had just under 529,000 homes for sale now for the week Ended September 20th which which is Actually just posted uh today uh there Was approximately 725,000 homes are Sailed so therefore we have Approximately 196,000 more existing House for sale right now compared to one Year ago that's an increase of 37% now this is something I've been kind Of talking about on the channel for what Since May probably um inventory has been Hovering around a 38% gain ever since May therefore inventory has been rising The same rate as last year ever since May this year therefore the growth rate Is basically flat so kind of think of Like a graph going like this where Inventory is up by 30% from last year But it's basically going the same Direction we're not going like this Where inventory is skyrocketing like we Saw in 2022 maybe a better way to Describe that is this right here uh There's 227,000 more houses for sale right now Compared to the start this year January 1st therefore inventory is up by 45% so
Far this year looking at data from alto Research compare that to the same time Frame last year inventory only increased By 12% so in other words inventory is Growing much faster this year compared To last year up by 45% so far this year Only up by 12% at the same time frame Last year now here's a big difference Though it's also Rising faster compared To pre-co levels so when looking at data From realtor.com hous inventory rose on Average by 16% from January through August in 2017 through 2019 compare that to a gain of 37% so far this year same time frame January through August this year however Though the increase this year is much Less than the same time frame in 2022 Where we saw a giant increase up by 93% compared that to a gain of only 37% So far this year this is why I do not Expect to see a sharp correction in home Prices and home sales like we saw in 2022 when inventory and rates were you Know absolutely exploding however though I do expect we're going to see home Price growth soften as the months Progress due to four main reasons number One the decrease of asking prices on a National level as I share with you guys More inventory seasonality and of course Number four sluggish rate of home sales As well let's keep an eye on this
Because of course a lot could change to Summarize inventory is rising more than Twice as fast as preco levels but Significantly slower than 2022 uh we're also still down compared To preo uh during the same time frame in 2019 we're down by 23% all right remember when I said that New new listings were basically losing Momentum as well take a look at this Last week new listings which is a Measure of people listing their hous for Sale Rose by only 6.6% compared to 12 Months ago so that marks the fourth Consecutive week now in a row in which a New Supply here in the market Rose by Less than 10% prior to that the week Ended August 17th and August 10th new Listings actually decreased from one Year ago so check this out with the Exception of a couple weeks in May this Year new listings have increased from The previous year by less than 10% in Contrast they Rose by over 10% from February through April this year Therefore the growth rate of new Supply Here in the market or new listings has Basically stalled out causing inventory To also stall as well let's also have a Look at how fast or how slow houses are Selling right now so last week it took About 8 days longer to sell a house this Marked the 19th consecutive week in Which houses took longer to sell
Compared to the previous year this is Much different compared to October last Year through March this year when houses On average were selling faster compared To the previous year the impact of Course regarding our housing market when Homes take longer to sell this of course Increases hous inventory kind of think Of this way if you have a bath tub the Water level is inventory levels if you Plug the whole of the bathtub then There's not a lot of water goes down and Therefore inventory piles up or the Water supply increases as more new Linges hit the market so because we're Seeing houses taking longer to cell that Increases the water level and therefore Causes inventory to remain at relatively High levels but then again a new Supply In the market is not skyrocketing which Is also kind of putting its cap on Inventory growth right now here's a new Trend as well let's talk about the Increase in the number of reduced price Listings that increase by 22.5% year-over-year therefore the Number of price drops has been higher Compared to the previous year for the Past 34 consecutive weeks however even Though there's more price drops than Last year the gain of only 22.5% is actually the smallest gain Since mid February this year let me Share that with you guys right here so
22.5% he has to go all the way back Until right there the week ended February 17th this year where inventory Or I should say the number of price Drops only increased by 22% this is much different compared to The what 61% gain we saw back in April 6 This year and the gains in the range of 45 to about 55% that we saw from Uh mid April this year through basically Uh July 13th this year so the growth Rate of of of price drops is basically Been slowing down for the past several Weeks now so that was the number of Price reductions let's have a look at The share of price drops this is on um Alus research uh for the week ended September 20th according to them the Share price drops is at 39% so basically Four out of every 10 homes for sale Nationwide have reduced their asking Prices that's a share at 40% Approximately um at 39% this is higher Than last year at 37% but lower than the Same time frame in 2022 when the share Was at 41% um but at 39% this is much higher Compared to 2021 2020 as well as the SC time frame In 2019 the big difference of this year Compared to the correction we saw in in 2022 though is just kind of like you can Just basically eyeball this looking at The trough this year mid-February we're
At 30% now it has increased by about What 9 percentage points to 39% the trough of 2022 though was 177% and by the time we hit this time Two years ago it increased to 41% so the Rate of increase in uh two years ago was Sharp and for a long period of time this Year increasing um at relatively high Levels here but not increasing at nearly Same rate as two years ago all right Here's a summary for you guys number one Asking prices have been flat or down Year-over year for the past 16 Consecutive weeks this is from a Significant rise of housing Supply as Well as elevated home prices which of Course is keeping home buyers some of Them a lot of them on the sidelines Number two hous inventory increased by 33% last week but the growth rate has Been stagnant for the past 4 months has Been paid at around 33 to about 38% ever Since May this year also the gain of 33% Is the smallest increase since April This year in my opinion this is from a Slowdown in the number of new Supply Here in the market however we're still Down by about 23% compared to the same Time frame in 2019 of course real estate is local and As of August Based on data from Realtor.com there's now four states that Have more houses for sale right now Compared to the same time frame in 2019
That's August so in Texas there's 8% More existing houses for sale Idaho is Up by 9% Florida up by 6% and Tennessee Saw gain of 5% in addition there's four More states that are not too far behind As well those are Washington Utah Colorado and Arizona they have Approximately 1 to 2% fewer House of Sale compared to 2019 areas that have more inventory Compared to pre-pandemic levels uh of Course are areas in which home price Growth is slowing down the most or home Prices are actually decreasing like in Parts of Texas for example especially Austin Texas number three of course we All know that Approximately 80% of Homeowners who do have a loan of their House have a rate below 5% so of course That's limiting the amount of new Listings hitting the market and of Course new listings have been rising by Less than 10% ever since May this year Which is limiting housing inventory Growth I do not expect to see a huge Surge in people listing their hous for Sale unless unemployment and layoffs Absolutely surge as well in other words I don't expect to see Force selling Unless people start losing their jobs Number four the share of price Reductions is no longer at a 5-year High Uh during the same time frame uh because It actually dipped below 2022 levels
Also in a span of 6 months in 2022 the share of price drops Skyrocketed from 17% to 40% more than Doubling compare that to a small gain of Around 9 percentage points so far this Year number five last week houses on Average took about 8 days longer to sell A friendly reminder though this is a Lagging indicator of our housing market Because days in the market is based on a Closed home sale but wait there's more Let's talk about rates so average 30 Fixed rates for people with great credit Has been hovering around 6% uh close to A 1 and a half year low housing Affordability has improved because rates Have been coming down but of course it's Still a huge issue due to high home Prices and of course in some areas High Insurance rates as well areas like in Texas Florida for example um are Experiencing huge increases of Homeowners insurance rates um so of Course that makes it more challenging by Houses also housing affordability Constraints can be seen by the record Low levels of pending home sales a Measure of contracts being signed Between buyers and sellers that's According to data from n or the National Association rers for the month of July And by the way I'll have an update for You guys ing figures for August that'll Be posted on Thursday this week number
Two this is actually a new development I've been seeing here the most recent Trends looking at mortgage purchase Applications decreased by only .4% um last week this actually for the Week ended September 13th but it was Announced last Wednesday uh that's According to the NBA that's the smallest Decrease since at least early of 2021 and in other words the smallest Year decrease in over 3 years regarding Application numbers to buy houses so Therefore application numbers are no Longer nose diving like they did in 2022 um also n reported that pending Home seals like I mentioned uh for the For July uh is at record low levels for Data that goes back to 20121 or 2001 in Contrast new home construction sales a Measure of contracts being sign between Builders and home buyers actually Increased by 6% year-over year in July So new home construction sales Rose by 6% contracts being signed but the resale Market fell to a new all-time record low Going all the way back until at least 2001 not to say that home builders are Not facing headwinds right now because On National level we basically have the Um most amount of new Supply or new Houses for sale since 2008 number three Looking forward for the nation as a Whole asking prices are down inventory Has been increasing homes are sitting on
The market longer in other words it's Taking longer to sell houses and price Reductions are more common now than they Were in 2019 we have been moving towards a buyer Market but every housing Market's Different inventory in California and The Northeast part of the US is down Greatly from 2019 whereas of course Inventory is piling up in Texas Idaho Florida and Tennessee number four the Most important one I appreciate you guys So much for watching today's video if You guys are still watching today's Video here's a virtual high five I Appreciate you guys so much have an Amazing day please like And subscribe And we'll see you next video thank you So very thank you very much [Music] [Music]
