The UK is seeing some movement in the Housing market after the bank of England Cut interest rates earlier this month It's the first cut Great Britain has Seen in more than four years now home Sale inquiries in the UK have jumped Nearly 20% from a year ago officials are Also reporting the number of homes being Listed Rose by 5% in the same time frame Here in the US the Federal Reserve is Hinting it could cut rates as early as Next month right now the key rate in the US stands at 5.3 CBS News contributor JD Durkin is here with me in studio 57 to Break down what's happening um so first Of all let's talk about how much we can Compare England to us I mean is it Apples and oranges or are there some Comparisons I like apples to oranges They're both fruits they're just not the Same fruit I mean we've had many central Banks around the world they've all been Contending with inflation which we Cannot forget Lindsay has been a global Phenomenon I know we're in the heart of The presidential election cycle there's A lot of partisan finger pointing at the Other side of the aisle but this is Something that given the supply chain Snarls that the entire world went Through with this anomalous one in a Lifetime uh pandemic we had a few years Ago we have had to see central banks all Around the world kind of manipulate
Their own short-term interest rates in An effort to cool private sector Spending now we're at a point in that Evolution of cycle where some economies That are stronger like ours are now in The point where they say hey we actually Think that we've been successful in the War against inflation the same cannot be Quite said yet for cenal banks around The world so we're on kind of a Different time time table a little bit Um so I like apples and oranges not Exactly the same but some similarities I'm going to ask you a loaded question As I have a bad habit of doing um so It's been reported here on our show that When the FED does meet in September it's Not only likely they're going to cut Rates but they may even cut by half a Percent so is that still the thinking And is the housing market immediately Going to see an impact because we've Also reported on this show that mortgage Rates won't necessarily fall I'll take The second part first these are lagged Indicators so they are going to take a While much in the same way that when we Had the 30-year fix rate mortgage go up To 8% about a year in change ago it took A long time for that progress to work Its way sort of through the digestive System of the economy I think the Reverse will be true now that we're in The era of interest rate Cuts I am still
In the camp based on my reporting that We're more likely looking at a quarter Uh a quarter percentage cut in other Words 25 basis points it's just the Fancy Wall Street parlan for saying 0.25% and the reason I argue that and Other kind of economic advisers I've Spoken with is because if you look back At the interest rate increase cycle that Started a few years ago they started Small they started with 0.25% and then At the end of that hiking cycle they Went back to 0. 25% with some of these Jumbo rate hikes in between I could see That now working itself in in Reverse We'll start small and then go from there Okay we'll go from there real quick the European Central Bank cut rates in June Then held them in July do you see that Could happen here especi yes absolutely Especially because after the September 18th meeting the November meeting is the Week of the presidential election it'll Actually be the day after the election It'll be a unique Wednesday Thursday Fomc meeting so my expectation would be Look for that first interest rate cut September 18th possibly a hold in November much like the ECB and other Banks have done what would the election Have to do with it the FED says that They're not politically motivated I they Absolutely do and it is after the Election but I do think back to 20120 we
Were still in this realm of uncertainty For several days we didn't know who won The election until Saturday of election Week we could be in for that type of Chaos this type around um but even even If it's outside of that election look For the FED I think to be very Meticulous very intentional they don't Want to cut rates too aggressively too Soon I could foresee a cut a pause maybe One final cut in December we'll talk to You plenty before then can't wait jie Jerkin thanks thanks
