New Home SELL-OFF In Dallas Texas | Commercial MELTDOWN

So what would you tell somebody who Wants to move to Dallas um don't think About it just do It and I try to express that so much to People it's not about the things that Are going on in Dallas the growth and All the properties and stuff being added That plays a role in it too but it's the Government for Me welcome back to real estate mindset We have another Extravaganza Metro Report video where we're going to do Boots on the ground ice from the sky in Dallas Texas now this scene is a little Bit special except for the fact that Mr Cooper has actually hacked this scene Now I'm really excited guys because this Metro report video is going to go into Much more than just new construction We're going to try to get interviews From the locals we're going to go into Existing into the job market Demographics commercial real estate We're going to go into all of those Things guys and not only that I also Have Melody Wright as co- host hello Everybody and welcome to Sunny Dallas Texas just kidding it's a little dark Here we're excited to be here to show You what's really going on we know Dallas is number one for multif family Delivery we know that they've had a lot Of new construction we also know that They are heart of the highest

Transaction number for commercial real Estate last year although sales were Down so what we hope to show you is What's really going on because there is So much noise out there in the media not Giving you the real story so we're going To give you these tools so that you can Understand for yourself and look past The narratives I want to welcome you to Dallas's very own waste dump right Behind me just kidding guys it's Actually core logic data get it and the Reason why we wanted to do this scene Guys is because we need you to Understand because we understand this That all data providers are not the same In fact some data providers use data to Push a narrative okay so again I'm not Necessarily saying that's core logic but What we are saying is that you have to Use multiple data sources to really Triangulate what's happening in your Markets and again you guys that's why I Always say what is kinging is Subdivision analysis not using companies That have hidden agendas here we are at Mr Cooper one of the top Originators and Servicers and also a prime example of The transition that occurred after the GFC from the banks to the non-banks and As these guys got into this business not Really understanding what they were Getting into how difficult this agency Game The Fanny May the Freddy Mack the

FHA VA game can be because the Government makes it very difficult for These folks to get their claims back if Things go wrong but what always happens In these mortgage boom and bus Cycles as Everybody thinks it's different this Time they start making some money they Get that gain on sale and that's what You get when you sell out to the capital Markets and they think it's always going To last and that's what happened to Mr Cooper who occupied this building I Believe they came into this building in 2015 as they were feeling really good About their new place in the origination And servicing but now they're subleasing This space and as we know they laid off 1,200 people last share and speaking of Layoffs let's talk quickly about the Demographics here in Texas so Unemployment is at 4.2% Which is higher Than the national average additionally You've got negative demographics in both The city and county so what we've seen In a lot of the sun Bel cities with the Most recent census results which are a Year pretty much a year old is that you Would see negative city net migration But not County well in Dallas you have Both it's -2 and negative point I'm Sorry negative point2 and negative Point4 and so you've already got higher Unemployment you've got net migration Out and you have

17.8% poverty very high guys and we can Feel it here I mean you can actually Feel it here we have some interesting Stories to share um but you can feel That poverty here so things are not Looking good for Dallas and they're Again number one for multif family Delivery they have a lot of new Construction and who's going to work in These vacant buildings and who's going To move into Mr Cooper's office we shall See breaking rumors as word has gone out Actually this is about a year but Apparently there has been rumors of a Home builder that's going bust now we Don't know who that is but we did want To take you guys to Meritage Homes as You can see the building behind me to Show you guys the overwhelming demand to Purchase new construction you can see How full the parking lot is right now Absolutely to the brim line of people Trying to go in to Meritage to pick out New homes you guys can see again super Duper busy I'm sure there's absolutely Nothing wrong with Meritage I'm sure the Rumors is False we will find out here we are right Across from the building in Dallas that Was shut down the permit building for New construction was shut down because They themselves did not get their own Permit uh right across from this is a Dilapidated building behind us uh

Indicate here looking like they're Prepping this to tear it down but I Think this is a good representation of What's going on here in Dallas Jamie Dond sold $32 million in stock yesterday Thank you hash to Julius Miami for that Bit of information these people don't Care about you they will build buildings Like this behind us and tear them down Over and over again so they can make a Few dollars in fees and they will enrich Themselves and so it behooves them to Actually misinform you out there in the Media even though Dallas had the highest Sales in commercial real estate last Year they were also down significantly There is a price tag that's coming due Here in Dallas almost nowhere else Besides New York City does hyperf Financialization really show itself like It does in Dallas which is one big Concrete Jungle of building of multif Family of luxury um and so this will Have to be addressed just like this Building behind us will have to be torn Down guys nobody wants to have to have This correction none of us want to have To go through this pain but it's seeing Things like this in context seeing this Building that is being shut down the Employees can't go to work because they Didn't file their own permit and then Seeing what's behind us the pain has to Come we have to start being a productive

Society again hope is not a strategy It's an effort and we all have to do Some hard things in order to address What's ailing us in our society which is Represented with what's behind me this Potentially could be a conversion here But instead of that you guys it's a Homeless Camp obviously there's a lot of Remnants here and also I want to take This as an opportunity to remind you to Always get a home inspection so you can See what's going on behind the rocks and Concrete is there mil is their mold Obviously this place you guys is Absolutely run down I can pretty much Guarantee you if I did an inspection on This property it would fail in fact I Know it because around this corner is The city code enforcer Dallas step your Game up I don't like what I see so far Here we are in Dallas where the story Really seems to be the jux toos of the Old dilapidated abandoned commercial Real estate which you can see behind me Look how much the state of disrepair of This property which when we drove around It kind of got a creepy image of some Kids toys in the back of this abandoned Building very bizarre but if you look at It in contrast to what's over here the Glossy new buildings in downtown this is Representative of the story that we have Seen all over the South where instead of Just taking care either demoing these

Old commercial properties or rehabbing Them they're just left they're abandoned Because guess what they don't make Anybody any money the developers get Those new fees and then they don't care They walk away and they leave this Behind where are the city planners where Are the city managers why is this I mean In full display here in Dallas Texas This contradiction of abandoned vacant Property and new construction existing Homes I wanted to start by taking you to A really really nice neighborhood that's Right next to Southern Methodist University this area right here guys is Welldeveloped there's trees everywhere It's very very clean very very nice it's Way different than some of the other Subdivisions that we visited that were You know they're a little bit junky but This is kind of restoring my faith a bit In what we've seen so far in Dallas Because this is the nice area this is Really where the money is at and it's Interesting you know where we were you Know the other day we found crime and Prostitution and all of this stuff when We come to the nice neighborhood we see People riding bikes with helmets massive Differences in Market that brings me to Again I keep saying this guys you got to Do local market analysis based on the Subdivision because these subdivisions Here way different I mean they got

Little boxes here that call for help and You know all kinds of stuff again the Other place they ain't got they ain't Got no calls for help over there so it's Brutal hopefully you guys are going to See how magnificent this is and what I'm Going to do is I just want to pan I want To show you this really beautiful Church That is kind of at the beginning of Where SMU connects to this very very Nice neighborhood so I hope you guys Enjoy you kind of see that here look at That that's that is a Stunning stunning church right there you Guys can see here's the university right Here now this University is absolutely Massive it goes all the way back here But here's the issue you guys people That are living here are probably sold On a lifestyle that is making the rest Of us broke in many ways the story of What is h has transpired over the last 40 years is the story of Dallas some of You may remember the television show Dallas from 1978 went up through 1991 that show was all about you know The oil business it was about you know The ranching business but the corruption Uh through that and that tracked one of The toughest times in inflation in our Country and so what you had very similar To today was people looking off at that Wealth thinking that is what they wanted They wanted that wealth and what did

They do they schemed their way into it Killing the American dream that we all Kind of Remember The Westerns that we Grew up on the cowboy that saved Everybody except in Dallas the show that Cowboy was a schemer and so in many ways That is the Bedrock of what's Happening Here in Dallas funny story about that is That the creators of that show called it Dallas without knowing anything about Dallas Texas once they visited here they Thought to themselves they should change It to Houston because that was the Center of the petroleum industry but They didn't and instead they created an Entire narrative Arc around Dallas in The same way that they've done here on The way to our hotel last night uh we Randomly picked a hotel it was a Marriott got decent reviews pretty Pricey for the area believe it or not we Saw four prostitutes walking on an empty Industrial Street clearly times are hard Out there for folks inflation is killing Our middle class it is it's hurting People and they are turning to Alternative ways to make money so maybe Guys maybe before we build buildings Like this that you see behind me we need To address structural problems and what We're actually facing in this country Currently there are 363 foreclosures in Dallas here's one of Them right here guys obviously it's a

Huge tragedy most of it has to do with Unaffordability but I did want to point Out you guys again we hear all these Narrative housing inventory high demand All of these types of things but yet the Market is starting to become flooded With foreclosure so again boots on the Ground it does exist here's one right Here for sale by owners are becoming More and more popular around Dallas and If you guys want to get more info on Where to find for sale by owners you can Access Redfin Zillow and Forsalebyowner.com behind us guys is one Of the hundred of for sale by owners Around Dallas and they're probably doing That for a couple reasons either well Obviously they don't want to pay their Realtors right but either they want to Recoup and capture more money or they Cannot afford to pay for a realtor Because they don't have the equity but Here's one right here guys just so you Know that they do exist and they will be Becoming more and more popular as this Thing continues to play out do you like Living in Dallas is this a good spot Actually actually love Dallas I'm from a Small country town where there's not Much much to do much resources so I came Right out here didn't take long for me To find a job meet people make Connections make resources what year did You move here uh October

2018 awesome what are the some of the Changes that you've seen in Dallas since You've been here um I've been here about 5 years and I can say it has crowded Pretty quickly and um the rent prices Have gone up but that's what happens When you're in a thriving Market we want To share some information you might not Know but actually Dallas is going to Deliver the most departments on record For the country this year and they've Got a ton of new construction uh in Progress so one of our beliefs is that Those prices are going to come down and Believe it or not they're starting to Come down even here so what do you think About that does that make you happy uh It does seeing them um cater to the Supply and demand uh giving us a supply Where there is a demand so uh I mean we Can we we can have more people in Affordable hous than it be it' be nice For the economy so what would you tell Somebody who wants to move to Dallas um Don't think about it just do it Dallas Existing home Inventory now before I Begin I I want to knock this point out Of the ballpark it's about subdivision Analysis don't forget guys when it comes To existing especially also new homes But especially existing homes every Subdivision is a unique environment off To its own so if you really want to know What's going on in the housing market

You want to get hyper local you want to Know if you're going to get a great deal Remember subdivision analysis review the Comps comparable sales which is a home That has sold over the last 3 years now My strategy as far as helping people my Baseline to figure out whether or not People are getting a great deal is using 2021 prices so I always want to see real Estate depending on the area at 2021 Prices now when we analyze what's going On in Dallas Dallas is actually down According to redin year-over-year of 0.12% now current existing median sales Price is 420 ,000 now Dallas peaked back In May of 2022 at $487,000 you guys that's down $67,000 13% from Peak that's not Seasonality okay the thing is guys Here's why you're getting so much Misinformation about existing and new Home sales in the housing market because The Millennials and children are the Loudest of us all and they know nothing You guys how could someone advise us on The GFC that never went through it how Could I mean I get it read history you Know what I mean like learn fundamentals But you can't but when we top that with Being paid to flipflop you guys these People are being paid to flip-flop even The people on our side they get this you Know the sense of clout the sense of Profit and they immediately flip it's a

It's an absolute tragedy it's a tragedy But I understand it you guys everyone is Confused so I'm not trying to take it Personally but it pisses me off I want You guys to be careful we need to hold To together we're the consumers that are In control now sorry for the preaching Let me tell you guys how much inventory So as far as active units you guys we Have according to redin is about 3.35 Months of inventory but again I'm going To tell you and we're standing in a Subdivision right now this is a an Existing subdivision this was probably Built maybe in the 1990s maybe early 2000s you guys there's new construction Surrounding this whole subdivision and Now that those new construction Subdivisions are going down in value Obviously that's going to Road Subdivisions just like this so in other Words when it comes to purchasing real Estate be very careful use the data not Your emotions so how long have you been Living in Dallas almost 3 years I got Here right about the end of Co and uh That's what I heard it was kind of Everything shut down but uh since I've Been back it's been growing and and They've been doing work everywhere and There's restaurants opening up all the Time uh it's my favorite part is the the Walkability is getting around having all Those options here excellent so what

Brought you here in the first place I Was from the the suburbs and I was just Tired of getting my car to drive 10 Minutes to the grocery store you know I've got uh just my local shop Berkeley's Market over there around the Corner that always has fresh bread and Everything I need and um the neighbors Are nice too it's a little bit of a Younger crowd and when you know you Don't have enough money to afford a big Old house you know right absolutely and So what's your your favorite part about Living Downtown it's a great question Um I it's got to say the people the People are real nice they're they're Welcoming um I moved out here without I Had a couple friends that that were in The area but none downtown and you just Meet one person and they they introduce You to all their neighbors and uh it's Like a big old family that's amazing so Do you find living in downtown Affordable do you have a great job that Helps or how no downtown it's not as bad As you as you think it is you know There's a there's a premium in certain Parts of of town Uptown especially but Um relative to the other parts of the Metroplex you know it's not it's not More expensive at all um saving if you If you don't want to drive you don't Have a car you save hundreds of dollars

There um so I think that it it's not bad So what would you give any advice to Someone who's thinking about moving to To Dallas Uh location location location you know Scout out your neighborhood uh you know If you're looking for art food culture Um you know there there's so many Different little neighborhoods in Dallas Where you can find anything that you That you want to do that's awesome thank You so much for your time new Construction in Dallas is everywhere you Guys now when we look at the map and I Know it's in a little bit into Fort Worth but there's over 10,000 new homes That are reported North East South and West everywhere in Dallas you guys the Absolute crazy thing about all this is These new home builders not only are Building in the middle of nowhere with Some of these places having no Infrastructure whatsoever but they're Building on top of each other and They're leaving spec homes sitting Unsold you guys we've walked past I Don't know just we've walked past an I Can't even count how many homes that We've walked past that are pure Speculation now the total number of Homes again guys is over 10,000 Obviously that's under reported some Subdivisions have two to three more Times inventory than what they're

Listing on MLS or New Home Source now on Top of that guys the total amount and This is what I mean about Builder Competition Dallas has many changes Going on all right so Builder Competition over 700 700 guys new homebuild communities and When you have a net loss of migration in Both city and county and you have this Much speculation guys that's not really A good thing now remember when it comes To purchasing new homes it's completely Different than existing and also Understand this okay I personally will Always get a home inspection no matter What a lot of people don't get home Inspections for new construction okay if You're one of those people I would Strongly encourage you to get your home Inspection however I also want to Encourage you to get the existing Inspections that Builders have and a lot Of that stuff guys is public records Through the county and they have a lot Of reports that generally you can access Foundation framing Plumbing electric so Make sure you're inspecting the home Properly and also guys don't forget this They're offering in ridiculous Incentives the months of supplies Probably a year they're offering price Cuts in this specific subdivision this Is in McKenna this is sutera they're

Offering 50 $60,000 price Cuts many many Options here many different sizes there Is no absolutely no guys lack of Inventory for new homes what we have Here is we have a lack of affordability Values are still going down in the face Of insane never had these types of Buying incentives in the last bubble They were giving away refrigerators now They're giving away $50,000 $10,000 here $4.99 2.99 and I want to make this last Point you guys before I wrap this up Okay my videos are not for Multi-millionaires with giant eagles That are crying in our comment section My videos are for firsttime home buyers Who want to understand how how to buy Real estate obviously if someone has a Hundred millions of dollars $100 million Dolls they can do whatever they want but One thing they can't do is have a happy Life apparently what year did you move Here 2013 and what have you observed over That 11year period in Dallas I've I've Observed a lot from the bad Drivers gosh Le the growth in in Dallas Uh when I first came out here they Didn't really have much um it was more So of like land and dirt and trees um They just started rebuilding Dallas um Getting it together um I want to say Around like 2014 was when I noticed a Lot of growth um beginning in Dallas and

Then as I started driving and driving Around Dallas I was able to learn more About it down to a lot of the not good So good Things uh I don't want to speak too much On what about uh housing affordability Do you think it's affordable to live in Dallas right now um compared to California yes um a lot of people feel Like Californians are the reason for a Lot of stuff going up and the housing Marke and stuff I know a lot of Investors and property owners and it's The government and I try to express that So much to people it's not about the Things that are going on in Dallas the Growth and all properties and stuff Being added that plays a role in it too But it's the government it's not anyone From other states it's the government And that's what people fail to realize And understand that the government is in Control of everything and they're the Reason why the prices are going up on so Much stuff out here and it's going on in Other states as well not just Texas a Lot of people have migrated here a lot Of companies have came here as well and They've also bought uh high paying jobs And that's another thing people Overlook As they complain and cry about stuff Being high and all this stuff is being Build Dallas didn't have anything they Didn't so do you see inflation impacting

You and your family and and the folks in Dallas yes I I I definitely agree to That I can see it um every day from the Gas prices to the Food um I don't really shop as much I Like to save my money uh but Everything everything is it's it's going Up and down yeah and I'm I'm about sick And tired of it and I'm pretty sure Everyone else is too awesome well thank You so much for talking to us today we Really appreciate it we had such a great Time writing with you so thank you I Didn't want to do any type of Vlog style But I wanted to run out and give you Guys one more warning I'm not saying It's going to happen here so take a look We're standing in front of sutera Texas Okay I want to come over here and I want You guys to see something the reason I Wanted to make this clip is to warn you That you want to be careful purchasing In huge subdivisions like this Subdivision is H subdivision that are Barely complete and barely built out Because when we go into downturns if These Builders have to go if they have To leave it's going to jack up all the Current owners right again I don't know About this specific development but I Certainly if I was a consumer out here And you know I see all of this pretty Much you know not a lot developed Personally guys obviously it depends on

The deal you know to be realistic I mean It does depend on the deal like if they Gave me a house for free I would take it But I'm not purchasing in communities Like this the communities that I would Be purchasing new homes in are Communities that are fully built out Maybe it's the last home in Houston a Lot of times when these subdivisions are Complete the property taxes decline as Well so there's multiple things to just Remember the more built out it is Generally the safer it will be through a Downturn here we are at The Book Depository of famous in in American History and I think actually part of our Story part of perhaps why Dallas feels So soulless you know the scene of President Kennedy's uh assassination you Know he often represented Camelot the Idea of American being great the idea of A you know a country where you really Could be in anything and anybody and Since that time we have lost a lot of That and so I think this is highly Representative to talk about what's Ahead for Dallas and what is ahead for Dallas this year they're going to have The highest delivery of multif Family Apartments of anywhere else in the Country they also have all of this new Construction that we've shown you here Additionally we've got commercial real Estate empty all across the city with

Negative net migration out so guys what Can you do you have to wait we are at The inflection point we are at the Turning and one of the reasons it's Taken so long is because of the Narrative out there and what we hope You've gained from watching this video Today is a different perspective that Will give you the tools to make the Right decisions for you and your family This is the end and I figured it would Be appropriate to do this at the grassy Null which is part of the JFK and Dallas Story now the question is guys is what Is better at this point buying or Renting and let me start by giving you Statistics for renting now as far as Renting guys if we look at just the Average three-bedroom rental you're Going to be paying roughly and this is All according to Zillow you're going to Be paying roughly $2,399 to rent an sfr that has a minimum Of three bedrooms now year-over-year That's down a doll month over month However that's down $86 so that's the Stat on renting so remember about 2,400 Now when we look at the median sales Price remember you guys median sales Price for existing homes in Dallas is 420,000 so when we take 420,000 we use a 5% down payment on a conventional Mortgage using 2% in taxes we get a Mortgage payment and this is just for my

Situation I'm not your loan officer I Have to say that all the time this is Just for me you guys total mortgage Payment 3,6 $39 you guys the difference per month Just per month not even talking a year Is $1,240 and that's on top of a down Payment of approximately 21,000 plus the Closing cost now overall guys here's my Impression of Dallas Dallas is just you Know it hit my soul because to me this Is a place where it has more rundown Abandoned buildings than I've ever been To it appears to me that there's half The city is ran down is falling apart The other half of the city may be new And so my question is is how long will It take Dallas to mess up the next round Of new construction and so I say to you Okay especially if you're in Dallas you Have incentives to rent and you have a Massive Gap from renting into owning and So I say if you can wait for recession If you can wait after the presidential Election if you're renting right now I Think it's the best thing to do so long You guys as you're renting With a purpose and other than that guys Do not forget this was all sponsored by Melody Wright and her substack if you Want more info on this Metro tour and You want to support us go to her

Substack and subscribe and other than That guys we hope that this helped we Hope it helps you make great decisions On purchasing and if you're out there Investing in real estate you know we Wish you luck and we hope you win Well I've been here for about 8 months Now and originally from Tampa Bay Florida you know lightning and Buccaneers of course um but I moved over Here because the inflation in Florida Has gotten crazy and Dallas I'm not Going to lie it's has a lot of Opportunities um just to make a Comparison when I was in Florida the Apartment that I was living in was one Bedroom one bathroom and not even a Porch and I was what I'm paying for My Two-bedroom two B with a porch right now Is just about the same