And welcome back I want to give you guys An update regarding construction numbers In the US based on housing starts Permits pulled and of course houses Under construction I'm also going to Give you guys an update regarding Construction costs in the US as well so I love to share let's go ahead and Dive Right In I first want to talk about Lumber futures prices these are not the Prices you pay at Home Depot for example Or your local lumber yard instead these Are future prices when looking at these Prices here at 383 dollars right now at That time this video which is the 28th Of March this is actually a uh what four Percent increase uh year to date so Lumber future prices have increased by Four percent so far this year however Though compared to one year ago they're Actually down 60.5 Also compared to five years ago Obviously pre-coded Lumber future prices Are down by 17 also I found this Interesting article from the National Association of Home Builders that was Just posted about two weeks ago it says After four consecutive months of Decreases the producer price index or Their PPI for residential construction In other words building material prices Rose by point three percent in February So overall building material prices Increase slightly in February compared
To January this year uh look at this Stuff because Ready Mix Concrete has Been absolutely skyrocketing ever since Really January of 2021 so RMC prices Have increased in all but two months Since January of 2021. price is Increasing every single month ever since January 2021 except for two months Regarding Ready Mix Concrete also Softwood lumber prices have fallen by 0.8 percent in February the seventh Consecutive monthly decrease since Peaking in March of 2022 the index here Has fallen by nearly half down by 4 47.1 Percent but still it's nearly 20 percent Above January 2020's level in addition Gypsum products which is more or less Drywall that has increased by 12.5 Percent compared to one year ago however Though it began stabilizing in August Last year because over the past six Months it has only risen by 0.7 percent And here's a chart below right here Showing prices ever since October 2020 Prices for gypsum have been soaring Except for the past six months it has Been relatively flat also prices for Still Mill products that has increased By 2.6 percent this February but it's Down by 21.2 percent over the past 12 Months in other words to summarize this Right here lumber prices have been Decreasing but much of these other Construction materials have actually
Been increasing over the past several Years here's what we also know as well From the National Association of home Builders for um March because build our Confidence for building new Single-family houses have increased Every single month this year so Confidence for building single family Houses have increased for January February and March this year however Based on my own analysis of their data Here when looking at pre-covered levels The current levels right now of Builder Confidence right now is at its lowest Levels since May of 2013. and I Mentioned this because Builder Confidence has increased for three Consecutive months but when looking at Pre-covered levels of their index the Lowest levels going back to May of 2013. Also as I mentioned in a video from last Week brand new single family home sales Have now increased for three consecutive Months Based on data from the US Census Bureau and prior to last week's report Which was for February's home sales the National Association of home builders Stated that the one of the reasons why We have an increase in home sales is due To home builders using in incentives and Price discounts so for example 31 Percent of Builders said they have Reduced home prices in March the same Share as of February but lower than the
36 percent that was reported last November also 58 percent provided some Type of incentive to home buyers this March all right let's change gears Slightly and talk about new home Construction numbers according to the U.S census bureaus report that was Reported about two weeks ago in which I Did not make a video but I actually want To touch on it on it today though so for Uh permits pulled on a seasonally Adjusted annualized basis here look at The difference between Um five units or more versus single Family so this column right here is for Single family permits pulled increased By 7.6 percent compared to last month Which was uh January of course however Though compared to one year ago permits Pulled for single family have decreased A whopping 35.5 percent however over Though look at five units or more a Joint increase of twenty four point Three percent on a month to month basis An increase of 16.9 percent compared to February of 2022. So based on this Information right here it appears that Home billers are more focused on Building multi-family properties versus Single family here's actually a better Way to look at permits authorized for Single family houses because again an Increase of 7.6 percent but down nearly 36 percent on a year of your basis let's
Look at our good friend Uncle Fred's Website here so here's single family Permits authorized over the past 12 Months so this increase we saw in February is actually the first increase In the last 12 months in other words Permits being pulled for building Single-family houses have decreased in 11 at the last 12 months one thing I Found to be very interesting as well it Actually depends on the region as well On a year of your basis every single Region is recorded decrease is compared To one year ago down by double digits For example Northeast down by 37 percent The Midwest down by 30 percent the South Decreased by 32 percent and of course The West decreased by 45.6 the biggest decrease on a month to Month basis was actually in the Northeast decreasing by 14.5 percent in Contrast in the midwest they actually Posted the biggest increase a gain of 10.9 percent uh compared to January of 2023. let's also have a look at housing Starts for single family versus Multi-family as well because this is a Similar Trend regarding permits being Pulled as well so again compared to one Year ago for single family that Decreased by 31.6 percent in contrast though for five Units or more that actually was an Increase of 14.3 percent on a month to
Month basis for a single family more or Less flat compared to January worry but For five units or more a giant increase Of 24.1 percent from January this year The reason why I mentioned this is that Because when talking about total housing Starts which also includes single family Plus multi-family look at that because It actually increased by 9.8 percent Overall but this 9.8 increase is largely Due to the fact that we had a 24.1 Percent increase of 5 units or more by The way I should have mentioned this Earlier on but when talking about Permits being authorized and also Housing starts these numbers here are on A seasonally adjusted annualized basis They're also in thousands of units so For example for a single family housing Starts 830 really means of course 830 000 on a seasonally adjusted analyze Basis here's another way to look at Single-family housing starts in the US Right now because uh again on a Seasonally adjusted analyze basis that Has been decreasing more or less ever Ever since March last year and the Current levels at 830 000 are actually At the lowest levels looking at Pre-covered levels going back to February of 2019. something else worth Noting as well is that housing starts Vary quite a bit compared to the region You're looking at so on a month to month
Basis look at the West a joint increase Of 28.5 percent for single family houses In stark contrast look at the Midwest Down by 8.1 percent also the South fell By 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis Uh housing starts actually decreased by Double digits and each of these four Major regions the West fell the most by 45 percent the Midwest fell by 42 Percent from February last year whereas The Northeast only fell by 11.3 percent I also want to share with you guys the Number of units under construction as of The end of February and how the compares To yours pass let's first talk about the Total number of units under construction Which is right here a gain of 6.9 Percent on a year of your basis now look At this though because this gain of Nearly seven percent compared to February last year is largely due to the Fact uh this 22.4 percent increase in Five units or more because single family Actually decreased by eight percent Let's also have a look at Uncle Fred's Website right here regarding um Single-family houses under construction Which by the way these numbers right Here are seasonally adjusted but they're Not annualized so 734 000 is a ceiling Adjusted rate right now which is right There 734 000 but has been decreasing Ever since more or less June last year So the number of single-family houses
Under construction have now decreased For nine consecutive months also when we Zoom out going back to 2006 the current Levels right now at 734 000 when looking At pre-covered levels is comparable to May of 2007 when at that time there was 730 000. when looking at multi-family Properties these are buildings with five Units or more that are under Construction that has been skyrocketing Since the summer months of 2021 and Check this out because when we zoom out As far back as this data goes which Actually is uh January of 1970 at 941 000 this is an all-time record high the Highest number of buildings with five Units or more that are under Construction and before I share a Summary of today's video check this out Because this actually can provide some Context regarding some potential changes Regarding inflation numbers in the Months ahead because completions of five Units or more the vast majority of these Are actually apartment buildings in Order to rent out so these are Completion A joint increase of 44.6 on a Month-to-month basis and a giant Increase of 72 percent compared to February of 2022 and because inflation Data is largely impacted by Rising rents This increase of housing supply of Apartment buildings is likely to cause
Rents to actually decrease in the months Ahead and therefore because of this if We have a big influx of apartment Buildings in order to rent out that will Cause inflation numbers to fall in the Coming months as well in contrast look At single-family houses though because Completions is flat on a month-to-month Basis but still down by 3.6 percent Compared to 12 months ago okay I know There's a lot to cover in today's video And a lot of you guys asked for some Additional analysis and also a summary At the end of the video so for those of You who asked for this I hope you're Still watching this video here anyways Here's a summary for you guys a single Family homecoming instruction is slowing Amid affordability challenges and of Course volatile and relatively High Rates compared to the past several years A single family permits pulled as well As housing starts were down over 30 Percent on a year of your basis Completions of single-family houses have Decreased by four percent from February Last year in other words we don't see This flooding of new home constructions That actually has been completed here Lumber future prices are down 41 percent Year over year but overall building Material prices have actually increased Builder confidence for building new Single family houses have increased
Every single month so far this year Through March in comparison to pre-covet Levels though bill or confidence is at Its lowest levels since May of 2013. in Regards to single-family houses for Permits pulled on a seasonally adjusted Analyze basis that increased by eight Percent compared to last month that was The first increase by the way in the Last 12 months but we're still down by 36 percent compared to February of 2022. In contrast for five units or more that Increased by double digits on a month to Month basis as well as on a Year-over-year basis as well for a Single family housing starts on a Seasonally adjusted basis uh that Actually was flat compared to last month But still down by 32 percent compared to February of 2022. in contrast just like Permits pulled for five units or more That actually increased by double digits From last month and also from 12 months Ago as well so Builders have been more Focused on building multi-family versus Single family as home buying demand has Decreased compared to last year for the Number of units under construction for Single family houses that actually Decrease for nine consecutive months Falling since June last year now having Said that when looking at pre-covered Levels right now for um single-family Houses under construction we're at the
Highest rates since approximately May of 2007. and part of that rise is due to Construction delays in other words it's Taking Builders longer to build houses One thing of course I do want to mention Is that regarding these units under Construction this does not mean that They're actually going to be flooding The market and they're going to be for Sale once the house is completed because Based on a report from the U.S Census Bureau that reported about what a Week Ago by the end of February here they're Worth 258 000 houses under construction that were Technically for sale so 258 000 in the U.S that were under construction that Were for sale that represents 60 percent Of all single-family houses for sale at The end of February so 258 000 houses Under construction that were for sale Have the total of 427 000 houses for sale and of course I Mean new single-family houses for sale In the US with that said please comment Below their biggest takeaways from Today's video also if you guys got any Value with this video whatsoever then Please like button so I appreciate that Of course I appreciate you hope you guys Have an awesome day I look forward to Seeing you on the next video Foreign [Music]
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