Hey welcome back I want to share red Fin's latest housing market update that Was actually just posted this morning Which is on September 5th I have a lot To share in today's video so I don't Want to waste your time let's kind of Dive in here and I'm going to share um Some insights that is not mentioned in This article here it says declining Mortgage rates have pushed the median US Housing payment down to $2,534 per month that's based on the Meeting asking price on a national level And the asking price for people un Listing their houses for sale and also The weekly rate for a mortgage rate for A third-year fixed rate about 1 week ago Uh that $2,534 per month is roughly $300 less Than uh April's all-time record high and The reason why um housing payments of Wbe home buyers is going down is because Um prices are coming down uh but Actually more importantly uh which is Contributing mostly to this decrease Down by about $300 per month is due to The fact that rates have been coming Down greatly um as well which I'll share With you guys here in a little bit but Despite this decrease in your average Monthly housing payment many home buyers Are still sitting on the sidelines some Are hoping for rates will fall further Once a Fed starts cutting interest rates
In a few weeks and others are waiting For clarity about the new n rules or the Outcome of the presidential election Something keep in mind I've been telling You guys here uh several times but it's Worth mentioning because um riffin Saying this right off the bat the rates We're seeing today the average 30y fixed Rates that we're seeing today have Already taken into account future Expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed so other words everyone's expecting That the FED is going to start cutting Interest rates in about I think it's About two weeks from now in mid September so because everyone is Expecting that the FED is going to cut Interest rates it doesn't mean that once They actually do cut rates that mortgage Rates decrease that same day the rates We see today have already baked into Account that the FED is going to start Cutting rates back in or in in September This month and redin actually touches on This here as well it says mortgage rates May not come down much more than they Already have that's because margets have Already priced in interest rate cuts From the FED starting in September and Going through 2025 here's the main point though if the Cuts are small smaller and slower than Expected rates would rise from what they Are today in contrast If the Fed cut
Rates faster than expected I believe That the street is forecasting for a 25 Basis point rate decrease uh in midt This year if the FED let's just say they Cut rates by 75 basis points that would Cause mortgage rates to decrease greatly As well so the FED Cuts rates faster Than expected rates are likely to Decrease further further if rates do Fall substantially more than they Already have that could push up demand Competition and of course home prices as Well so speaking of that let's talk About rates because according to Redfin Here it says weekly average mortgage Rates have fallen to the lowest levels In about a year and a half that's Based On data from Freddy Mack what I actually Like looking at instead is the uh Mortgage News Daily they look at Daily Rates for people with great credit Because today which again is uh September 5th the your average 30-year Fix rate is at 6.35% jumbo is at 6 and half% FHA and Via loans you can get around 5.7% again these are just average rates You can get rates lower than this but of Course rates higher than this as well so Looking at this chart uh going back to Approximately April of 2023 at 6.35% excluding one single day in early August this year when the average rate
Was at 6.34% going back to uh what was this um April uh 7th of 2023 so we basically Have the lowest rates we've had going Back to April 7th last year with one Exception of course that was in early August this year on top of that rates Are actually much lower today than they Are one year ago so for example one year Ago the average rate was at 7.21% so therefore rates have decreased By about 80 86 basis points from 12 Months ago here's the kicker though Because even though rates have been Coming down we're not seeing a sharp uh Increase in home buying demand so for Example it says uh pening home sales Fell by 8.4% year-over-year that's a Measure of home buyers getting the Offers accepted that decreased by 8.4% That's the biggest year decrease in Nearly a year some wouldbe home buyers Are sitting on the sidelines because They're priced out of the housing market Waiting for the election or to see how This plays out regarding the Nar Settlement that was just enacted in mid August this year and by the way if you Guys want more information regarding how That's impacting our housing market and Of course um how that's impacting um Home buyers regarding that Nar Settlement I made a separate videos Regarding that and I'll provide a link
In the video description below for that So anyways let's go on and talk about um Some early signs here it says there are Some signals that prospective buyers are Touring houses and prepping to purchase Even if they're not buying though so Application numbers are up by 3% up by 3% week or week I've been getting Comments regarding how uh people have Been seeing videos saying that Application numbers are at the lowest Level since 1995 but in fact that's Actually not true I'll have some data Share regarding that so applications Numbers Rose by 3% compared to the Previous week that's Based on data from The MBA and redfin's home buyer demand Index A measure of Tours and other home buying Services from redin Agents was up by 4% From one month ago and also it's highest Level since approximately may this year All right let's talk about some leading Indications of Home buy demand to kind Of give a glimpse of what's had Regarding their housing market here we Already talked about rates let's talk About the mba's purchase Index this is Basically an index which measures the Amount of people who are submitting Applications to buy houses using loans Uh that increased from One Week Ago by 3% but it decreased by 4% from 12 months Ago um when I saw that article which it
Gets posted every single Wednesday every Wednesday morning uh from the MBA I was Kind of taking a step back because I Haven't I don't remember when was the Last time we saw a small decrease of 4% Uh we've been seeing decreases in the Range of 15 to about 25% for quite some Time so here's what I did for you guys I Looked at the mba's website looking at All their articles uh going back to 2021 for all their weekly articles I Should say regarding application numbers Spent about half an hour doing this but This is really I saw that 4% decrease it Sounds like a small decline so that 4% Year VI decrease in applications again For people looking to buy houses using a Loan that's tied with the smallest Decrease since the week ended November 19th 2021 In other words that's the smallest year- Your decrease in nearly 3 years so for Comparison sake back in mid July this Year it was down by 15% 15% compared to Mid July of 2023 in early April this Year it was down by 23% look at this though the end of May Last year it was Downy whopping 31% but Actually was worse in March last year Dowy whopping 40 2% compared to early March of 2022 so key takeaway here activity for People who are applying for loans to buy Houses I should say people applying for
Mortgages to buy houses um activity fell Off a cliff in early 2022 through early 2023 due to a sharp increase in rates Rates more than doubled in less than 6 Months in 2022 which of course shocked Our housing market so we're we are Recovering from that somewhat uh because We aren't seeing you know double digigit Decreases of application numbers uh no More and in fact last week it only Decreased by 4% however you guys know I like to say However however we're at very low levels So a we're basically have a small Percentage decrease based on a already Very small number so think of it this Way we saw a huge decrease of Application numbers and right now we're Basically at a low level so we're seeing A 4% decrease based on a low level of Application numbers uh unlike uh early 2023 we saw a sharp pullback in Application numbers because we saw a Sharp increase in application numbers Back in early 2022 right so we're not at The lowest levels of the year uh but we Are on par keywords there on par with Levels we saw back in 1995 and of course every housing Market's different this is based on a National survey from the MBA one more Thing I want to share regarding this um And I I'm sharing this because I want You guys to be more informed but also
Want to have you guys have the ability To do your own research right if you Watch a video or read an article about How you know application numbers are at The lowest levels in 40 years then you Can fact check them by actually going to The source of the data so one of that um Sources that I actually use is actually From the MBA click on um housing data Right here and then you can click on Where is it right here application Numbers so I'll provide a link in the in The video description below here so the Composite index is an index which Measures the amount of applications for Refi plus purchases so I don't really Focus on that because you know Refinances and purchases are vastly Different the refin index by the way is Not seasonly adjusted so keep that in Mind you tend to see of fluctuations Based on seasonal Trends instead I Actually look at their purchase index Which is seasonal adjusted you can look At the 30-year fix rate or you can hide That just by clicking on that and you'll See over the past one year the index Right now is at 131.8 Which is higher compared to the Previous week um also higher compared to Uh February as well as October last year So we're not at a 12-month low but we're At very low levels because look at this This goes back all the way through um
The early 1990s as you can see the levels right Now we' have are not the lowest levels Since 1995 but they are on par with Levels we saw back then so big picture What I'm getting at here is that U you Know we're not seeing this giant Decrease of application numbers but we Are seeing a small decrease based on Already a small number if that makes Sense anyways moving on let's talk about Their red fin um home buyer uh demand Index that increased by 4% from one Month ago but is down by 7% year-over Year also people searching for homes for Sale on Google that's up by um 6% from a Month ago but unchanged from 12 months Ago all right let's move on and talk About some key housing market data Regarding home prices uh inventory Levels pending home sales the share of Price shops and of course much much more Their weekly data goes back by the way Through 2015 and it is subject to Revision they basically look at 400 plus Us metros and this uh article report Covers the four weeks ended September 1st this year so the median sale price Just under 390,000 hasn't really moved Very much in a couple uh weeks now but Is $5,000 below the all-time record high That was set back in uh July this year Asking Prices rose by 5.3 uh sold Prices Rose by
3.9% Meanwhile your monthly housing Payment at the weekly rate at 6.35% which coincidentally is very close To the daily rate as of Thursday as well That's the lowest levels since January About $291 per month below the all-time Record high that was set back in April This year Rin also tracks the 50 most Popus metros as well because of course Every housing Market's different So Based on sold prices there was seven Metros that decreased compared to 12 Months ago um actually looked at their Article from uh one month or one month One week ago and there actually was Seven metros that down as well so Unchanged compared to the previous week Uh the biggest decrease uh Nationwide For the 50 biggest cities was Austin Texas down by 4.5 then we have Fort Worth Texas down by 1.7 San Francisco Down by 1.2 Tampa 1.1 San Antonio 1% Oakland down by 0.9% and Houston Texas Down by. 3% in contrast Philadelphia saw The biggest gain up by 11.9% I mean what a difference compared To Austin down by 4.5 after that we have Milwaukee uh naso County New York up by 10.1 Province Rhode Island up by 8.8 and New York New Jersey up by 7.8% so much of the Northeast and the Parts of the uh Midwest are experiencing The biggest increases in prices whereas Much of um Florida as well as Texas are
Actually going down due to the Difference in Supply so in Texas and Florida we have more homes for sale Right now compared to preco levels in s Contrast in the Northeast for much of The Northeast and we have a lack of Houses for sale to say the least looking At Red Fin's data center regarding the Median sell price uh right now again It's at 390,000 up by 4% year-over-year Um lower than the peak that was around Uh 396,000 that was set during the fors Ended July 7th so right now we're up by 4% at this time last year we're up by 3% To 2022 though we're up by 7% look at 21 Though look at this uh let me make sure I'm sharing this same week approximately We were up approximately 14% And back Then we're at 339,000 now it has increased to 390,000 Right now all right let's change here Slightly here and talk about pending Home sales new listings and of course Housing inventory so pending sales a Measure of contracts being signed Between buyers and sellers that Decreased by 8.4% year- year that's the biggest Year-over-year decrease since October of 2023 meanwhile new Supply here in the Market new listings Rose by 3.7 active listings or housing inventory Rose by nearly 177% however though if you guys want to
See housing market or housing market Crash inventory is basically moving in The opposite direction here because that Increase of 16.6% is the smallest increase since April this year let's have a look at Red Fin's data center regarding this so Pending sales fell by 88.4% the previous week we were down by 6.3% let me exclude 21 and 22 so we can Just look at uh this year compared to Last year as you can see pending sales Were basically moving in line with last Year's levels but have been coming down For the past month or so so for example Back in when was this uh the Forex ended On August 4th we were down by 5.2 now it has decreased to 8.4% so basically what we're seeing Right now is a seasonal decrease in Contracts being signed but right now We're at the lowest levels in at least The past 3 years during the same time Frame in regards to new Supply in the Market let's take a look at that so this Is much different as well because to Start the year during the Spring home Bind season we saw new lisings up by um What was this up by about uh 9% to about 15% during the Spring home Bine season But right now at least for the past Month or so new listings have barely Squeaked out a game in fact right now We're up by
3.7% uh looking at what was this back in Uh April we're up by 14% so we're still Seeing a lack of new Supply here in the Market um so even though we're seeing a Small gain compared to one year ago in Regards to active Lins or the amount of Houses for sale basically moving in the Opposite direction if you guys want to See a housing market crash it has Increased by 16.6% we're actually very close to the Peak back in 2022 but right now at 16.6% this is actually the lowest year Your increase since all the way back Until the Forex ended April 7th this Year when at that time we saw a gain of 15.64% when I exclude 21 and 2022 though You really can see this sharp rise of Inventory levels uh this year versus Last year we basically had a small run Up of inventory so this year inventory Is basically skyrocketing let's have a Look at how this compares to 2022 though So 22 we saw a big increase of inventory As well especially in the early um um Home buying season early spring home Bind season um but the rate of change Was actually much sharper uh two years Ago compared to last year so for example Starting in basically may we kind of had A Slowdown in the runup of inventory Levels but much different compared to 2022 where inventory was basically
Skyrocketing through uh July last that Year all right going back to rein report Let's talk about pending sales for the 50 biggest metros there was 16 metros That saw gains of contracts being signed In contrast this means that it decreased In 34 of the 50 biggest metros in fact The biggest decline surprisingly here is Miami Florida down by 17.4 West palage Florida down by 177% Fort lawdale down by nearly 177% then we Have Atlanta and Houston in contrast the Biggest gains of pining sales San Francisco up by 7.1 Boston 6% then we Have San Jose Los Angeles and Riverside Uh so interesting there that 1 2 3 four Five that four at the top five metros That had the biggest gains of contracts Being signed are actually located in California in regards to new Supply in The market the biggest increase is San Diego up by 17.4 then we have Las Vegas Phoenix Anaheim and Houston in contrast We're seeing a lack of new Supply in the Market in Atlanta San Antonio newort New Jersey Austin Texas and Chicago in Regards to the month supply we're at 3.6 Months that's an increase of8 months uh From one month ago which means that what The month supply was around uh 2.8 Months uh back at the same time frame Last year but this is um at least a Three-year high right now in regards to Days of the market how fast or how slow
Houses are selling uh Dent markets at 36 Days this is at least a three-year high As well uh but we're not seeing this Sharp runup of Dent market like we saw Two years ago U but we are experiencing You know gains compared to previous Years though lastly I want to share or Actually two more things I want to share With you guys uh the share price drops Actually decrease now we're at 6.6% the all-time record high I believe Was set about two weeks ago at around 6.9% having said that though we're at Least a three-year High during the same Time frame and of course the sale price To final list price received is at 99.1% which means that houses that did Sell over the previous four weeks they Sold for .9 percentage points less than The sell's final list price that by the Way is at least a three-year low as well So please comment below your biggest Takeaways from today's video if you guys Got any value then please hit the like Button I great appreciate you also Consider subscribing as well have an Amazing day and look forward to seeing You on the next video St [Music] [Music]
