Welcome back in today's video we're Going to talk about the latest housing Market update according to redin just Posted last week we're going to give you An update regarding housing inventory Home sales home prices and rates of Course and of course much much more than That as well so let's go and Dive Right In I have a lot to share this was just Posted on December December September 12th um it says here falling rates mean Housing payments are now more affordable Than they were 1 year ago despite higher Home prices so question for you guys why Is it more affordable then and the Answer is of course that rates have been Coming down right now we're around a one And a half year low uh regarding the Average 30-year fix rate and more than That here a little bit so falling rates Have pushed the meeting us housing Payment down to to nearly its lowest Level since January this year but Pending home sales have yet to improve So we're seeing rates decreasing yet We're seeing you know contracts being Signed between buyers and sellers or Pending home sales still down compared To one year ago and this is pretty um Remarkable because one year ago rates Were more than 1% Point higher than they Are today so back up here we have demand Less today than it was one year ago even Though rates have fallen by more than 1
Percentage point so many would be home Buyers are hoping rates will fall Further and others are waiting for the Clarity around around the new uh ner Rules I personally haven't seen a whole Lot of changes regarding this new ner Rules regarding you know how Transactions are um taking place but if You guys are seeing any um changes in Your neck the woods then please leave me A comment below we all know that we have To have a buyer broker agreement signed Between buyer and seller or buyer and a Buyer's agent prior to looking at any Houses but I haven't really seen any Changes um other than that uh but of Course that could vary by the region any Case housing payments are falling Because rates are falling so weekly Average mortgage rates are and daily Average rates have both dropped to the Lowest level in over one year so rates Today as of Monday uh September 16th um Are basically at the lowest levels since Approximately February of 2023 so again here they seeing that Rates have dropped to the lowest level In over one year in anticipation of the FED starting to cut interest rates so The current projections for the FED to Cut rates which is their next meeting is This Wednesday de I keep on saying December September 18th um they're Actually calling for a 50 basis point
Red decrease by the fed that's Controlling the federal funds rate so I Get a lot of comments saying that hey Once rates decrease I want to see how Fall or how much uh mortgage rates Decrease as well but the current rates We're seing today for average third-year Fixed rate any kind type of mortgage Rate have already taken into Consideration future expectations of fed Cuts by of course by the Fed so it's not Like the fed's going to cut rates by 25 Basis points or 50 basis points on Wednesday and suddenly rates are going To decrease by that same out that's not How it works the rates we're seeing Today have already baited into a Consideration of future expectations uh For fed Cuts one thing that could kind Of change the Dynamics this Wednesday Though is that Wednesday um the FED is Actually going to provide the Projections for the federal funds rate Over the next couple of years and based On that that could change mortgage rates On Wednesday so for example if uh the FED members um have projected that we're Going to see much lower rates than Expected over the next coming months or Coming years I I should say uh that Could cause mortgage rates to decrease On Wednesday not due to the fact that The FED is going to cut rates by 20 5 to 50 basis points on Wednesday in contrast
If those projections by the FED tell us That the FED wants to have a higher for Longer interest rate environment that Actually could cause mortgage rates to Increase on Wednesday and of course I'll Definitely keep it posted with the L ofs On that going back to rin's report it Says housing payments would be falling Further if not for stubbornly high home Prices so we still have very high home Prices very close to all-time record Highs on a national level um but the Reason why housing payments or housing Affordability has improved is because of Rates decreasing over the last month or So speaking of home prices the meeting Us home price or home sold price was Just over 388,000 that's up by 3.7% Year-over-year and just a few thousand Shy of July's all-time record high home Prices remain elevated despite slow Sales partly due to limited inventory so This is very much Regional in Texas Idaho um Florida for example they have a Lot more actually not a lot more they Have more houses for sale right now uh Compared to the same time frame in 2019 Whereas in California where I live and Work as a real Esty agent here in the Greater Sacramento area with my team There's approximately 35% fewer House of For sale compared to 2019 it's actually Worse in the Northeast they have a Approximately 70 to 80% fewer houses for
Sale whereas in Texas and Florida they Have more homes for sale from 2019 and Coincidentally the areas that have uh Inventory very close to preco levels or Higher than that are areas in which home Prices are going down or are flat and of Course areas in which we have a lack of Housing that's of course areas we're Still seeing elevated home prices in any Case the total number of houses for sale Nationwide is down nearly 30% from Prepandemic levels and while it's still Up by 16.7% from one year ago that's the Smallest year Vier increase in about 5 Months this is something I've been Talking about the channel for quite some Time I would say for a past 3 months Because we're not seeing new let's Seeing skyrocketing and because of that We're not seeing inventory skyrocketing As well so we're basically seeing this Stagnation of growth rate of inventory Levels in fact when I share um inventory According to redin they're showing here That inventory is actually going down Right now so we're kind of seeing this Seasonal effect regarding inventory Levels right now because inventory tends To peak in the late summer months all Right let me give you guys an update Regarding mortgage rates so a 30-year Fixed rate the average rate according to The mortgage News Daily
6.12% that's a two basis point rate Decrease compared to Friday jumbo is at 6.4 FHA and VA loans is just under 5.7% so looking at the average 30-year Fixed rate one year ago look at that one Year ago we're at 7.29% so rates have decreased by7 basis Points or 1.17 percentage points Compared to one year ago obviously we're Much lower compared to the peak which Was back in October last year at 8% now We're at just over 6.1% so at 6.12% that's basically the lowest rates We've had going all all the way back Until February of 2023 like I mentioned At the very beginning of this video here The decrease in rates hasn't caused a Lot of activity of home buyers we're not Seeing a huge increase in pending home Sales and of course we're still seeing Relatively low levels of people Submitting applications for Home Loans To buy houses so here is a really good Um snapshot looking at uh the mba's Purchase index which by the way is Seasonally adjusted uh this is a Basically way to look at the number of People Nationwide who are submitting Applications to buy houses using loans Of course and here's a really good Snapshot looking at the decreasing rates And the index so of course a high index Means that there's a lot of people
Submitting applications and of course a Low number means that there's a lack Thereof right I want to share this Because this is a really good way for You guys to look at this on your own and What I found this is on the uh mortgage News DA's website I'll provide a link Below is that their data tends to be a Little bit laggy because sometimes their Charts here are not updated so the most Recent Trends we have from them is Actually for the week of August 26 so the week of August 26 was the week Ended um August 30th but the most recent Trends we have from the MBA is actually For the week ended September 6 there Probably is not a lot of movement week To week but we don't have the most Updated Uh numbers here but just keep that in Mind if you guys go to this website Which by the way you have to scroll down Scroll down here to their purchase index Um just look at the date there that is The week of or that should be a Monday August 26th I believe that is a Monday Yeah is Monday uh the 26th so the mba's Um reports looks at the week ended which Would be um August 30th so they they're Missing one week any case I I digress I Want to mention this because I really Want you guys to be empowered to look This up for yourselves as well so uh Take a look at this the rate as of when
Was this um August or April 29th the Average 30e fix rate was around 7.22% the purchase index was at 14.7 and rates have decreased by about What 1% Point ever since April this year So a big decrease over the past several Months but when I take out this just Make it easy to see look at that I mean Their index has basically been flat ever Since then despite the fact we're seeing Huge decrease in rates over the past Several months so this is very much a Forward-looking indication of close home Sales because of course the first um you Know step if you're looking to buy a House is to get preapproved for a loan From your lender right so uh this is Very much a look at there's not a lot of People who are submitting loan Applications right now and therefore This would imply that buyers are not you Know racing to the to their lenders to Get approved for a loan because even Though rates have decreased from 7.2 to Around 6.2 6.1% we're not seeing a whole Lot of activity in fact their purchase Index has actually decreased went from 141.5 now it's at 131.8 so demand decrease even though Rates decrease um since April this year All right getting back to Ren support Here's a look at their application index Again seasonly adjusted that increased By 2% from one week ago but it's down by
3% year-over year that's according to The MBA uh something they do not mention In this report though a decrease of 3% Compared to 12 months ago is the Smallest decrease in at least the past Several years going back to uh 20121 the previous week was down by 4% And based on my own research I spent Half an hour one week ago uh a decrease Of 4% year-over-year was the smallest Year-over-year decrease since November Of 2021 so this decrease uh let me just Kind of break this down we have a low Level of people submitting applications To buy houses which implies that we're Going to see a low level of close home Sales in the coming months and on top of That it is down by 3% year-over-year but That's a smallest year-over-year Decrease since at least the past several Years so in other words a small decrease Already based on a small amount of uh Application numbers that makes sense um Also another leading indication is red Fin's home buyer demand index uh that of Course is a measure of Tours and other Home buying Services by redin agents That was up by 5% from one month ago Near its highest level since May but it Was down by 7% year-over year so again This all implies we're going to see a Low level of close some In the coming months so let's have a
Look at their key housing market data For the four weeks ended September 8th They look at 400 plus us metros and Their weekly data goes back to the year Of 2015 so if you hear someone say All-time record highs or all-time record Lows again redin data only goes back to The year of 2015 and is subject to revision so let's Talk about the median sale price 388,000 Up by 3.7 year year we're only about $6,000 shy below the all-time record Highs that was set during the four weeks Ended July 7th so still elevated home Prices asking prices are up by 5.4 and Your average monthly housing payment is Down 1.3% that's the second biggest decrease Since May of 2020 the biggest decrease was uh the Week of August 25th this year so again Housing payments are only down because Of rates going down because of course Home prices are up by nearly 4% uh meanwhile new listings increased By 4.6% so we're not seeing a joint surge Of people listing their houses for sale And active listings which is the amount Of houses for sale Nationwide was the Smallest year- your increase since April This year the month supply is at 3.8 Months that's an increase of8 8 months From one year ago according to redin
Here a four to 5 month supply is Considered balance in my personal Opinion it really depends on where You're coming from back in 2022 we had What around a 8mon um Supply or a point 8mon Supply so a lack of inventory but Also a huge increase in sales and that's Why the month supply was at very very Low levels um but it it even though home Prices decreased in the last half that Year we still didn't even get close to a 5 month supply that's why I'm mentioning That let's also have a look at how each Of the 50 most popus metros fared as Well so home prices Milwaukee Wisconsin Led the nation up by 11.6% then we have Province Rhode Island Nasu County New York New Brunswick New Jersey and for lawdale Florida up by 7.9% so it decreased in eight of the 50 Metros so of course 32 of the 50 biggest Uh US cities um posted gain G Year-over-year Austin Texas of course Le Nation once again um by the biggest Decrease down by 4% then we have Fort Worth Texas Dallas Tampa and Jacksonville Florida in regards to Pending home sales a measure of Contracts being signed between buyers And sellers that increase in 13 metros So the biggest increase was actually in San Jose California up by 7% then we Have Boston Cleveland Indianapolis and San Antonio in Contra the biggest
Declines look at that West Palm Beach Florida down nearly 20% Then we have Miami Fort lale Florida Cincinnati and Atlanta all down by more Than 133% in regards to new Supply H in The market or new listings that Rose the Most in Las Vegas up by 19.1% San Diego saw an increase of 18% Then we have Phoenix Anaheim and Houston In contrast the biggest decrease of new Supply here in the market is Atlanta Georgia down 19% then we have Austin Texas down by 11% nasu County Down by 8.1 San Francisco down by 7.1 and Chicago down by 5.9% looking at redfin's Data center regarding new Supply in the Market uh that Rose by 4.6% there hasn't been a whole lot of Movement in fact it's been going down Ever since June which by the way is Normal as you can see in previous years Uh which by by the way uh orange is 21 Here's 22 the yellow line is this year And of course last year is in blue so We're up by uh 4.6% year-over-year but This is actually much lower than the Spring home buying season where new Supply in the market was up by around 7 To about 133% and because new listings Have basically been losing momentum over The past several months now that's one Of the reasons why we're not seeing uh Inventory Absol skyrocketing and in fact Let's have a look at that right now
That's active listings which is right There you can see that active listings Peaked during the Forex ended August 4th This year at 1 million houses for sale Now there's only 996 th000 that is at Least a three-year high right now but It's only up by 177% year-over year and This is much less than the peak which Was around 23% during the early summer Months this year also at 16.7% that's the Lowest increase since approximately April this year so right now we have Approximately 177% more existing houses For sale right now so let's take a look At pending home sales buyers gain their Offers accepted look at that it's at Least a three-year low right now so even Though we have more homes for sale right Now more new Supply here in the market Pending home sales are down by nearly 8% Year-over aear in regards to the month Supply again that's at 3.8 months uh This is at least a 3year high right now Uh the trough during the same time frame Over the past several years was back in 2021 at that time the month supply was Only around 2.2 months now it's at 3.8 Months quite a bit higher compared to The past couple years as well when we Were sitting at around a 3mon supply Let's also have a look at how fast or How slow houses are selling right now so Days in the market's at 36 Days this is
At least a threee high as well one year Ago it was taking Approximately uh 30 days to sell house Now it's about 6 days longer right now Much different compared to January Through approximately April this year When houses on average were selling Faster compared to 2023 but ever since May houses are taking long sale from Last year in regards to the share of Price drops according to Redfin that's At 6.6% um quite a bit higher compared to The past several years and it's at least A three-year high as well uh looking at 6.6% to start the year we're at 3.5% in 2022 21 the share price drops Was basically only at 1.7% so we basically start at elev Levels this year as well as last year And and lastly let's have a look at the Average sale price to final list price Ratio we're at 99% which means out of All the houses that did close escrow or The sale was finalized they sold for .1 Percentage points less than the sellers Final list price um back in um 22 and Last year that ratio was around 99.5% which means houses on average sold For5 percentage points less than asking Now they're basically 1 percentage Points less than asking right now this Is also way lower compared to the same Time frame in
2021 when houses on average were selling 1% over asking and with that said please Comment below with your biggest Takeaways from today's video and if you Want a real estate hent referral please Email me at Jasonjason walter.com or you can check Out my website to apply for a loan or to Submit an inquiry as well and that is Real estate TEF finder.com I'll provide A link in the video description below Hope you guys have an awesome day and Look forward to seeing you on the next Video
