So there's been finally this repricing That's still underway when you take a Look at expectations for a pivot for a Pause or a cut has that meaningfully Changed too Yeah yeah I I think it certainly has Um you know the the focus is when the FED is gonna uh you know stop it's it's Hiking cycle you know when it reaches Terminal Um but really that the market has been Most aggressive around rate cuts um at One point the the market expected the FED to cut you know upwards of 200 basis Points about a year after it reached That terminal value Um that's come in a lot so kind of this Um higher for longer message is Certainly making its way into the market Um and I would say that a lot of the Risk rally that we've seen at the end of Last year going into the beginning of This year was based on The View that Um the Fed was going to cut aggressively And with that kind of being repriced and Being pulled in Um you see risk assets you know really Trying to find their way Um in an environment where data is still Somewhat volatile around that concept What's also volatile is expectations as To how the China reopening plays out Right are you looking for different ways To get exposure to that what are the
Opportunities that you're seeing at the Moment given there's so much repricing And uncertainty Yeah I mean you know it's still in the Early stages uh certainly um we have a Team in Hong Kong that follows it Closely and and the lack of data Recently has made it a challenge to Really stay on top of what's going on a Lot of their work around all data kind Of looking at uh Mobility through other Sources shows that it's continuing to Move along Um and I think with the NPC coming up Um as well as maybe some of the data Becoming a little bit more frequent uh We do think that there's still room for That trade to run but would probably Focus on it uh within China before Um you know really seeing it move into Other parts of the region um it's going To start in China and that's probably Where it's easier to focus on right now To your point Marvin we have seen this Chart on the Bloomberg showing how a Rising dollar has pummeled those Asian Stocks right when it comes to the Broader Emoji markets complex when you Are still focused on China and given the Waiting of China in broader EMS is it Eventually a positive trade You know what um it you know it is uh as We kind of move through this reopening Process a stronger dollar
Um and really a repricing of the FED However is just this massive Hammer That's going to Um keep am on its back foot um that Doesn't mean that you don't want to go Into the EM complex completely but you Do have to be selective Um in an environment where the fed the Dollar and higher us rates can really Reprice everything you know on any given Week um given how volatile things are When you say selective would you venture Into those markets that Aggressively Yeah you know I think I think higher Real yields um are going to be an Important part of the story I think Understanding uh Commodities but not not Necessarily just broadly Commodities but I'm looking at the actual things that Are coming out of the ground and whether Or not you can make a case that that That demand for that kind of continues Even if um you're in an environment of Economic uncertainty you know that's how You really have to approach it
