Hey everybody welcome back to this week In startups this is Alex and I have a Treat for you today earlier this year we Hosted our liquidity Summit in Napa California I flew out it was absolutely Fantastic and then a couple weeks ago we Shared two of the talks here on the Podcast you all absolutely loved it and Asked for more so who am I to disappoint I have two more talks from that event For you today and they are Amazing this weekend startups is brought To you by square space turn your idea Into a new website go to squarespace.com Twist for a free trial when you're ready To launch use offer code twist to save 10% off your first purchase of a website Or domain command bar seamlessly Integrate an AI powered guide into your Software making navigation intuitive and Interactive visit commandbar dcoms to Get a custom live demo and brecks the Financial stack founders can Bank on Brex knows cash is King for startups so They built a banking experience that Takes every dollar further get the Business bank account trusted by one in3 US startups at brex.com Twist4 so first up we're going to hear From Antonio graus from Valor Equity Partners you may know Antonio for his Time on the boards of SpaceX and Tesla But more recently Valor put a lot of Money into the $6 billion xai round and
He sat down with Jason to talk about That and a host of other topics Valor is A big name this is a great chat sit back Enjoy Antonio graas is one of my best Friends and uh he runs Valor Equity Partner it's been a VC for if he Considers we'll talk about it but uh What most people would consider a VC but A very operational firm that takes very Big swings in some amazing companies you Might have heard of I really wanted him To come here today because he has such a Unique perspective on the landscape he Just literally got off making his Largest investment ever as a firm uh in A company called x. uh elon's um large Language model AI company and then you Helped with the fundraise I assume uh And this was a very large fundraise Couple billion six billion I believe uh Six billion and maybe counting and Counting yeah so this hasn't existed in Our industry before um trying to think Of $6 billion raises it's a very rare Occurrence take me through what the Thesis is of this investment why you're Raising so much capital and and how it's Going to be deployed I know that there's A a data center that's been acquired Already and uh you've got to see it Recently but let's talk about what Elon's trying to do with xai and why you Place that I think you put in six or 800 Million 600 million yeah big number yes
I look I think it's um D in pieces uh This is the largest series B that I'm Aware of um there are companies Obviously like SpaceX that raise more Money over time but in in a series B the Lar series B I'm aware of because the Most capital is going to build a Data Center and as the way we think about This invested but I I'm speaking for Myself and my firm not for XI or El Anyone else it's just my my personal Opinion the firm's opinion there is a um We didn't invest in any model companies Any the foundational model companies Because we believe they were basic Commodities models are Commodities the Uh capacity to train them the data sets Are Commodities the only that's not Really commodity is the train data and The reinforce learning that's it so as We looked across the landscape most These models uh if you weren't inside The big platform companies you didn't Have real prary data and really great Reinforcement learning and even inside The platform companies you have some PRI Prary data but you have um reinforcement Learning that's being done many ways With with human intervention so the Example I'll give you um you know why Does bar give you some strange outcomes When you ask questions number one the Train data itself is driven by Advertising clicks it's sort of inov
Dilemma here if you want to have a Source of Truth on data it can't be Driven by advertising something else and Then you have human intervention that is Biased so it's human bias if you believe What we believe that these models are One of the most important technology Innovations in human history more akin To electricity than say the internet Then you want to make sure that they end Up with the least amount of human bias And really they are in view gues the Creators so if the people that are Inserting the bias have a certain set of Values what those are they will be Inserted into the system the XT train Data we believe has the least amount of Bias in the system because it is a Debate it is a modern version of The Forum the Roman Forum right where all Sides are being heard whether you like That or not there was a lot of Controversy about this but the reality Is fundamentally X's data is driven by Free speech Is you can say it in the street corner You can say it on X now you may not like That that's what the Constitution says Right have me lawyer by training and I Have I have a real belief in consal free Speech that train data plus Community Notes makes we believe the most Effective training data for a system um For llm because now you have all sides
Of debate and the system itself just at Training a kid can start making its own Decisions about what the right answer is With the minimum amount of implication Of human bias in that system that's why We believe it's going to win then if you Add the other parts of elon's ecosystem Let say Vision system data from Tesla Obviously Communications with starlink The brain interface with neuralink all Of those parts of the ecosystem don't Exist anywhere else that's why we Believe this will be the most valuable Company in the space winner in space and In addition to that though adding um Like the very final piece of this is That the company is reconceiving from First principles what a large data Center should look like the largest data Center to date today is about 25 Megawatts they're building one that is Much larger to hga wats and this is Public in a very dense configuration and It's it's playing to exactly what Elon And his Engineers do so well they're Rethinking the entire system from first Principles and trying to make it cheaper Better faster and so I've seen this Movie at Tesla SpaceX other companies Where it's but also it's dozens of Engineers being led in a mission to Create the very best most effective System possible to allow for the best Training possible fastest training best
Training along with the that's call it The clearest view of Truth whether Complete if they're not in the train Data and the ecosystem Al together this Is why we made charge investment what is The product that comes out of this do You think because right now there's a Big debate of hey and you mentioned it The llms are commodified like asking a Question to an Open Source One like Llama asking an open one to a closed System like closed I mean open AI closed AI closed AI you know chat gbt yeah if You look at the results that are coming Out if they just leog each other every Couple of months with each release and And it does seem like there's parody Already um even though opening I had a Pretty big lead so what is the business Model going to be in these data centers Who are the customers and are they going To be paying like is it a competitor to AWS in your mind how do you frame in Your mental model what this will do or Is it enough to get the data center up And running get the queries and the Reinforcement learning going and then Figure it out later so I would say yes To both actually I mean if the one way We thought about this was if for some Reason it doesn't work which I think it Will work the data center um Innovations Alone will be exceptionally valuable Like just like the asset value of that
Alone is exceptionally valuable um but We have much more than that right so the First part today any of you are using Using X just go buy the premium service I suggest you use it it's great I use it For you is like one of my most um Enjoyable moments dur the day you know That I said youself all yeah we we trade Our favorite memes back and forth all Day it's pretty funny yeah um but you The grock button is there and you can Use it and so in the grock presentation Itself um the day before the they made Some investor presentations the the rans Had launched missiles at Israel and they Asked kind of in real time hey what's Going on in Iran and you had the other Models say don't know something nonsense Nonsense nonsense and you had grock say Well they they're just missile launch And run why because it was a real-time Source of data now that's very important For many commercial applications so as An example if you go to any trading desk In America today this is just by this is My opinion not the companies this is my Um if you go to any TR IND in America You will find several screens up there's A bloomer terminal that someone's paying $7,000 a day for because they want the Best best information in the world you Know what they also have Twitter yeah They're all up on Twitter if you want The best most update information
Possible of any of ons today forget About this the the inference speed which Is the the speed which ites a token but The information right now you have to Use gr yeah today and there is a Modation strategy right now which is a u Revenue share with with grock on the X App that's occurring today that'll be The first stage um you know the next Stage will be agents so you know I've Looked at a couple companies already That have Hardware that're being Integrated with whatever LM you want That provide an agent that'll be like a You know whether seeing your ear seeing Your desk whatever that agent will help You interact the LM again do you want a Source of truth that something that's Close to source of truth that's got the Best real time information in the world Or do you want something that's Influenced by the advertising clicks From the platform companies and you just You choose as a consumer you want will Choose do you care about source of Truth Or do you care about advertising right You want to be sold or do you Want to actually have the right answer I Mean you guys choose what you Want no one knows your product like you Do but knowing how to build something Customers want is only half the battle You have to sell it to them and that's Where Squarespace comes in Squarespace
Is the e-commerce tool that you need we All know Squarespace builds beautiful Websites right I say Squarespace you see Beautiful stunning website but did you Know Squarespace payments makes it super Simple to earn online or that Squarespace has the marketing tools you Need to reach new customers and that Squarespace can help you with email Analytics and even design just like You're the best at building your product Squarespace is the best at websites and ECommerce there's no doubt they're the Best they've been added the longest they Make the best product they're Relentless At listening to their customers and Making great features so that your Business can grow so check out Squarespace.com twist for a free trial And when you're ready to launch go to Squarespace.com twist and they'll give You 10% off your first website or domain Purchase that's squarespace.com twist You know what would be really helpful go Ahead and uh tweet put on LinkedIn thank You to Squarespace for supporting this Weekend startups if you do that you know Just like five of you do that they see It and they're like yeah you know cool People listen to the Pod and uh we Should support that pod they're the Longest running partner we've ever had On this weekend startups and for that I Am so grateful the next layer which I
Think is quite important is how do you Get to AGI a machine that lives inside of a Computer is not Embodied and I believe and I think many People believe that to actually reach Human level intelligence and I don't Mean look right now the systems are Smarter than humans machines could add And subtract and multiply and build Bottels faster than me two years ago Five years ago it didn't matter what Does it mean to be a human what does Consciousness mean right what what kind Of values do you want those system to Have you get that when you actually have An embodiment of the system this you Will have inside of Robotics Tes already has Robot theom System it's functioning today it Functions today using the vision systems That Tesla built with millions and Millions of miles of huge on aable Remote out of thom's driving driving if You integrate in LM with that you get an Embodied system and that is how I think We achieve an HGI that is more Compatible with a benign future for Humanity ultimately our brains at the Center of our brain is imiga which has Is a seed of both compassion and anxiety We want the machine to think like we do In the sense that it cares about us the Way we care about each other how do you
Do that if you can't feel in touch and These robots when do you think having Seen the experience with Tesla how long before a robot like that Could be in our you know in the world From Tesla Humane from whichever company But we would start interacting with a Robot at an event like this and it would Be refreshing the coffee or yeah you Know uh you know be the valet or carry Your bags to your room carry your bags To your room how about that is the bed How many years till it's usually my job Carrying your your room yes well you do It well but you I tip well too you tip Well too true it's true look I retired From the t board in 2021 so I have again The opinion here is my my own I have no Information disclaimer disclaimer yes Disclaimer disclaimer um I have had a Chance to see the system some months ago And what I think is going to happen is There are several robots we l at Lots These companies some small some large Some very specific use the the Otis Robot is it's has to be 5'8 ways it bu About 150 lbs it's the same size as me So maybe I'm the perfect human yeah Maybe that right right well certainly Average certainly Average sorry it was just you put it up There for me oh no they built it to be Average in terms of size because if it's The average size then it can navigate
The world correctly so exact when will One of those be uh you know a bell hop Do you think that to pick a year so I I Would say right I'd say today it's Deployed in the factory uh I think doing Simple tasks what's going to happen is It'll do simple tasks in in the factory Which is a huge Advantage for training Data learn that and if I had to bet I Would say 3ish years two three years I Don't think it's five it could be a bell It could be a bell hop a hotel yes I Think within I think I'm not sure they Will that they will go down that the use Case but I think that um if I had a bet I would say inside of five probably Three wow I bet a dollar it's within Five so this I think leads to some Conversation you and I have had about The pace of all this um we've both been With the same age we've both been you Know in the industry at the same amount Of time and the pace now is very Different something has fundamentally Changed with the pace of innovation so What do you Think how do you reconcile what the next 10 years will look like when compared to The last 10 man feels different it feels Way different yeah I mean the the pace Of change is definitely change it's Definitely the slope so the second Derivative is is very very high and the Challenge we have as capital allocators
Like I think about as you know we think About ourselves not as Venture Capitalists but as risk allocators Because of how we run our business how We think about developing asymmetric Information over time the number of Opportunities coming in that look Amazing are just through the roof the Problem is it's a little like the Internet in this C in this way in that It's very hard to separate signal from Noise most these companies will die yeah And so and there might be five working The same thing you know if you look at We look at our strategy and AI is both Um its infrastructure soall data center Chips behind the behind the chip Software and Hardware that will makes go Faster and then verticalized Applications that have proprietary uh Data and reinforcement loes the number Of opportunities we are seeing is I mean It's mindboggling we have we've had it Bu software as you know to keep track of All the stuff right right and to be Clear you've built inside your firm Software to analyze companies um and Opportunities yes yes and help us triage Our top on the pipeline and then keep Track of how we're how we're tracking The information our companies can no Longer do it with human Brands it just We can't scale horizontally fast enough To keep up with all the information
Coming in we're using and we're using Artif intelligence so you are correct That the the pace of change is is dam is Dramatically different of technological Change and the number of companies being Created is finally different and very Importantly especially I think for the Folks here and for you is That this is the first cycle I've been In I've not been this J said 20 plus Years we existed in Industry that was an Algop they were like you know bu firms You can name them you can probably throw I don't know a rock not from here but From San Hill Road H all five their off All five their offices um and these are Great firms by the way I we business all Of them they're amazing and occasionally Want to break in you know Founders will Break in or someone break in But something happened with this Technological Revolution and with Co That I think has disrupt that Alop the Venture olop yes the early Stage Venture oligopoly I I think that That oligopoly has been disrupted I Think even why con being disrupted by Firms like yours and because there is so Much happening and so many new people Industry that and that they and they Don't have the same brand affiliation That you might have had it's kind of Like you I have a son who goes to a Fanasy school on the East Coast got a
Great brand it doesn't matter as much Today as it mattered 3 years ago or 5 Years ago and the same thing's happening Um what matters is are you adding value And so firms that are I think I think Our reason our deal flows up so much is You know our our whole view the world is Our customer is the company we're Investing in we design our our scale Group products it's our operations Products around serving those customers Our LPS or our partners that's how we Think about it I think I think you about About the same way you had value your Companies the same way and entrepreneurs Are getting really smart about this They're like yeah the brand was great But you know what capital is kind of Like available but I really needed Someone to help me right and it's I can Give you a distinct story about this we Had a Founder uh Marco and Jonathan who Created a company Thumbtack I was Happened to be the first investor I met Them when nobody would invest in the Company and they Jonathan came to me I Don't know a year ago May six months ago And he said hey you know I just wanted To let you know how much you help me at Can I take you to dinner how much you Help me with mtag I said yeah that's Great thank you um makes me feel great And he said well I started a new company I want you to be the first investor I
Said great um I said what is it he said Athena he said uh what I really need Your help with is picking a a venture Firm to go with and I said well who you Talking to and he gave me the list and It was like all the Blue Chips uh as Well as yourself and some you know a Couple of upstarts I mean everybody Wanted to be on the company I'm have a Brown chip by the way what's that I'm a Brown chip yeah Brown chip got it I get It And I said he's you know I said well Before I told him you know that we know Each other and I said well what's your Ranking whatever and he said well I just Like Antonio and Valor the most I said Why I said just look at what they do for Companies and I said well that's the Right answer you know that's that's Somebody who's going to really help your Firm um and he he made the right Decision and you invested in Athena as Well tell me with that company which is Doing virtual assistance in the Philippines uh matching them their ARR Is going through the roof it's been Pretty Incredible maybe you could Tell us about the non-obvious thesis for That company that the public doesn't see Yet well I'm going to tell that story And I'm I'm I'm going to finish your Story with a with with um the end of how
It the F value ad has come around right Which is um this company has it started Out really as a lifestyle business where The founder wanted to create outsourced EAS to the Philippines in a call center Because thumb Tac was call basically and Then realized when LMS occurred that Okay this is a great way to develop Train data people in LM that be an LM Assistant like this is the idea of Having the the V the virtual assistant They'll get to know you and it's not That all the a jobs will go away but if You know if there's one EA per one Executive you might have one EA for four Executives you like use a couple of These I know yourself two servicing four People yeah so it's it's it's really Great and they are using an llm to train The A's to make them more effective over Time and this leverages them Dramatically but the interesting part of The story is so Jason kindly did um did Help us uh invest in this company they Then came back to Jason and said okay Jason you got a a media brand that's Very valuable will you do deal with us In marketing and um Jason started a a Website that's called Athena wow he has This really cool kind of funny um whose Voice is it man it's uh yeah kristofh Walkin Christ wow wow it's fellas guys Got a virtual assistant yeah I I wish I Could be I wish I had your your ability
Be funny but it's it's quite it's really Funny actually it's funny and it's gra It grabs people and they turn the thing On um and it blew up the lead gen system It's like the fastest growing thing We've seen probably faster than Uber It's they can't even process it so you Think about like how you add value well What does an early stage company need we Have a whole system of corporate Relationships we' help our early stage Compan get revenue from it's one of the Things they wanted from us they got from You was actually your brand and your Ability to reach hundreds of thousands Or I don't know millions of consumers Millions yeah millions of consumers bus Yeah who need this product and so your Your ability to help them in that co- Marking program has been I mean I saw The numbers recently it's like off the Charts they have like two years of Demand they can't fill we like Scrambling now to fill demand yeah they Had 1,400 people sign up um and they Were getting whatever it was a 15 or 30 People a day steady state and then boom And now they have no inventory I I think There's a you know 100,000 person plus Backlog now yeah it's something it's Some insane nut yeah Founders I know a Lot of you listening to this podcast you Build software for a living right we Love doing it but we all know it's hard
You know the pain of trying to onboard New users and get them up to speed Quickly worse most chat Bots and guides Built for the task are annoying as heck Users tune them out because we all hate Random popups thankfully there's one Company that uses generative AI to help Users on board without annoying them and It's called command bar it has a chat Bot that gives personalized responses to User questions instead of a basic Q&A And it shows users around your product Like a live guide cursor included even More command bar can detect when a user Needs a nudge giving them a product hint Or special offer to close that important Sale command bar is used by Unicorns you Know hashy Corp Gusto 6 cense angelist And others so here's a simple call to Action you got to check out this product Integrate an AI power guide into your Software so your customers can navigate Your product intuitively and quickly Visit commandbar Docomomo demo the same thing happened With Uber to a lesser extent because I Had a smaller following then but I got Probably the first thousand people for The LA yeah uh when they when Travis Launched La I was in LA and I tweeted it And d and the rest is history but this Is I think very important to to sort of Meditate on in this room which is the Field is open right now there's
Something that's happened where you know We talked about your a lot privately but You weren't a darling to say the least Of like the classic endowments and when You started raising your funds you had To go to other sources you were pretty Pioneering in that especially in the Middle East as well and um and other Sources of capital the you don't need to Follow the traditional Adventure Playbook things are different the game On the field has changed yeah yes yes For sure I look in and there's a lot of People Al Capital here our view is just Like we want the most viable um be Val Our companies we also want investors Val To us what does that mean that means They're easy to deal with they commit Easily and quickly if we have a question They're always willing to help us and And and they're good people right and so As we went out in the world to raise Money we realized that there were Certain segments of the population that Liked us you know they just like we we Did very well entrepreneurs family off People that had built companies and Understood our operational Talent we did A little less well we have some now but As you know in the early days with kind Of Foundations endowments who were Operating in a certain Playbook we did Not spin out as some big firm and um Like had a bunch of guys fancy degrees
Right we started out as operators we Built like a connector company my first Real job after golden Sachs was running A plating line like at a as a as a plan Manager right so this is not a Traditional background it was harder for Some of those investors to see see that And see the value in that that's Changing now 20 years later but in the Beginning you're right I mean it was Hard to get through some of those Systems but the clients had saw through It and had been alst over the years have Been well rewarded you know it seems Like today it is extremely extremely Cheap to get started and then to win It's Capital intensive and this requires Different levels of capital different Levels of focus maybe you could talk About how easy it is for Founders today To start businesses and then these Inflection points that occur and what's The proper governance and funding system Because it seems like there was an Anti-government anti- kind of VC vibe That was going around for a little while People didn't want to have board Meetings we just saw a lot of during Peak Zer noise yeah and it's very hard To do the job when there's noise and Actors behaving irrationally we would See a Deo want to be in business with That founder and they'd say well I need An answer today and we say well we
Haven't even talked to any customers we Haven't done due diligence I said well These two other folks didn't do due Diligence I said I can't really make This investment I guess I'll talk to you The next round and I'll meet the Customers next week and then you can let Me know when the next round is but there Was a lot of chaos and now it seems like The game's very different in terms of The pace so maybe we can talk a little Bit of that yeah yeah look I think in in Um in the zero environment um there were Crossover hedge funds came into the into The business and fundamentally in the Early stage business not the late stage Business they were doing you know series A's serious BS and this fundamentally Changed the speed and Pace at which These Investments were happening and on Top of that you had um covid so people Weren't traveling and they could do Meetings over Zoom which by way I never Did like I refuse to write a check even During Co I would fly somewhere and see Somebody I wouldn't do it I can't I I'm Too old and too old fashioned without Looking across table at someone and say Hey I trust you or not um but why were They doing this it's very important and Anyone who's a c allocator here oh I'm Going to get in trouble saying this to My friends who crosss but this is Actually volatility
Washing so what happens is if you Running a public portfolio with a Private sleeve and you're being marked Up and down every day your volatility Numbers your stino and sharp ratios how We think about paying portfolio managers Just return they get better if you add Privates that Mark less often it looks Like the volatility is lower so oh this Was a little gamesmanship of putting a Foundation yes and and lowering VA yes So when you lower volatility You by Definition even with the same return Will increase your sharp ratio and your 1 ratio that's the way the math works This is what drove it in addition to That they thought it was easy to write Checks in in early stage companies Because they all seem to win well I got News for you they don't and I mean B I Remember having a conversation with one Of our friends in the in the Middle East And they'd asked me about one of these Funds and I said look I wish I was smart Enough to hire Bane to do my work that Would be great I mean I've got you know 30 guys in operations 30 people make Investments I mean I just feel like a a Fool because I've got to maniz people And take care of them and pay them make Sure they have good careers yeah um boy It be benit outra bay' great uh turns Out doesn't work so well yeah so Management Consultants can't do the
Bespoke work of entrepreneurs and Venture capitalists yeah go figure go Figure yeah I I think it's still got no Offense to the guys at Bane and and McKenzie they're very smart but they're Not doing what we're doing and they're They're not at risk the way we are so Outsourcing your fiduciary decision and Most your most your research is somebody Who doesn't have the same Capital risk That's just an agency problem you're Trying to drive Capital through at high Speed because of this weird dynamic of What I call volatility washing let's Talk about the state of I don't want to Get into politics but the state of the Balance sheet in America we have really Over the last two and this makes it Super not partisan the last two Administrations just really went Buck Wild spending on whatever their pet Projects were Co whatever tax Breaks student loans but the country Feels like um it is reckless in how it Is managing its finances and that seems To me to be uh something that is really Going to be harmful in I don't know it's The near future but certainly in our Kids future how do you think about the Debt we've been running up the interest Rates and and this what seems like a bit Of Chaos in how we're running the Enterprise that is the United States and Then let alone putting on top of that
Recklessness this h anti- Entrepreneurship you know kind of Vibes In certain pockets of the Culture it feels like a very dangerous Combination to me so I I I I think this Is correct let me give you a few um Additional data points so the the Federal de numbers are through the roof Everyone knows those numbers and they Are it's okay to have debt if you're Investing in productive capacity problem Is here we're investing in just giving Money away to people right and what what Happens in about in the we call it the Mid-70s when women went the workforce The employment population ratio which is The the total number of people that can Work that are working was about 63.8% Okay if you look at the curve it went up Peaked somewhere in like the 2000s at 69% yeah just under 70 and exactly and Then it came back down during Co went to About 62 and change and now it's back at 63.8% what does that mean that means That about half the population came to The workforce but the number of people Working is actually the same as it was Before they came in this means that There's a lot fewer people that could be Working that aren't working and so I Think that look the debt is a real Problem okay but it can be solved and We're not at a place where debt ggp R Like 110% I think something like that
We're not like at 140 150 we're not like Latin American numbers so the the dollar Can definitely be at risk at some point If you going but the real problem is we Don't have enough productivity GDP is Very very fun Al a function of number of People working times productivity Productivity of capital and and Productiv of those humans right which Which driv by Capital if that doesn't go Up and we don't have more people working Then the we will have a real problem Because the dollar will be devalued by Function of our low productivity levels Relative to our competitive trade Partners that's the real problem in my Mind is and this is where the culture of Let say anti- entrepreneurism you're Talking about and anti- work is a Problem and we have to work what area Around the world excites you you if you Think about entrepreneurship you know we Had Ibrahim from muad here we're talking About UAE very exciting what what Regions make you excited in terms of Capital capitalism entrepreneurship and People who want to change the world for The better so look I would I would I Still a huge fan of America I mean I Would not move anywhere I would not go Anywhere I love this country I'm raising My children in this country they're Going to work in this country so I would Say still number one is America you
Still believe in American exceptionalism Yeah I believe in well let me let me Actually go double click on that sure I Believe that we we we were we were in a Bipolar World we're now in a multipolar World and we'll be have to come accustom The idea that somewhere around Gulf War I we started exporting American values As a post American interest we need to Return to a policy of exporting American Interest are we exceptional are we not Exceptional I don't really care what Matters to me is we have the ability to Live well live freely and respect other People's cultures I that's what matters Which is where we were prior to War I I Believe we will return to that over time So I wouldn't say it's exceptionalism Necessarily but it's it's the American Ingenuity that that we can have partners That are equals to us it's okay no Problem we can we just don't have to Fight with them in be equals the second Place I would go in the world the Biggest Delta between what is happening On the ground and what's being reported In the US I think is actually in the Middle East um you know you and I both Gone there and spend time there it's Extraordinary to me um how much the These countries are sort of running the Singapore Playbook except they have Resources and they have land right so You think think about if leuan Yu had
Lots of capital and lots of land and a Very very young population that was well Educated which is what you have in these Countes in the Middle East culturally They are different than us however I Think we should respect these cultural Differences and find the commonality we Have work together the second area which I think is obvious to people uh more Obvious than the Middle East is India um Again demographics are Destiny you look At the Middle East in India they have Very high population growth let's end on Immigration then because I think it's Super important topic couple of million People come into the country every year They seem to come in illegally uh and we Don't seem to have any thoughtfulness on Either side of the aisle of a strategy Or a disc question of who's coming in or The number of people coming in or how Those people coming in match to the Needs and the interest of the company a Country rather today and in the future How if you were president uh how would You architect our immigration policy for The next for this Century I mean I would Run it exactly a company I'd say okay we Want the very smartest people let's fure How to find them let just open open up The top of funnel for the very smartest People in the areas we need them and get Them H1B Vis to come in and um turn off The nonsense at the at the other end
Right so we do need a I do believe we Need a guest worker program for um labor That is $15 $20 an hour and I think That's probably a smart thing to do a Controlled way was where we were you Know 20 years ago the H1B program is Totally broken we need some we need Reformation there I think it's become a Political football between the left and The right um which is not good for America and I hope it gets resolved soon But for sure I would we would never have A company that just brought people in And hired them without any Qualifications right which is what's Happening right now right just walk in And start working I think we need to Reframe it from immigration to Recruitment because companies do Recruitment yes and recruiting what we Need and the highest quality people Would give us an distinct Advantage Because if you were to recruit the best Of India the best of Japan the best of China the best of Russia they lose that Person you get a great player on your Team yeah the other team loses the Player you win twice yes the advantage Doubles and people want to come here but We've created this bizarre architecture Where you can come to the border and 80% Of this is not a political issue 80% of The country is in agreement we should Have some control down there no look I I
Just told show my parents and my father Actually volunteered for the Vietnam Draft to get to this country to get this Country yeah get to get a to get a visa To get a green card and I'm sure your You know your grandparents your parents Someone did something similar it's hard Yeah and um I still believe that if we Allow created a system where the best People could come they would come we Have to recruit them we just open up and Have you know however you want to Qualify them they come yeah I mean Canada New Zealand Australia all Point-based systems like very obvious That this needs to shift to a Recruitment based one what gets you Excited these days just generally Speaking I mean I FW to talk to you that Was pretty super exciting for me yeah I Even we my C boot so I'm pretty excited About that um Look I'm I this is the most exciting Time of my career it is it really is a Moment where I feel like um there is you Know we we we we have this investment Thes which is called uh Pro entropic Right lots of chaos going the world and We want to invest companies World make The world better these two things are More important than ever it's investing Companies that made the world better That are good at helping us manage Through the chaos that's going to come
And the chaos is getting worse not Better so it's very exciting and the Number of young people I'm dealing with Daily both inside the firm outside the Firm the systems we're building scale Which we're operating all this really Does excite me and it it excites me Partially because it is scary like it's Not just exciting because it's all Benign you know it might be benign if we Make it benign but it could also be Dystopian if we don't really work to Make it a great outcome and I think we And the people in this Room we have the opportunity to do this Right we live in a system in America and I'll I'll moralize for a moment which is In many ways it's ethical but we drifted Toward being immoral we think about what The legal thing to do is not always the Right thing to do M and I think this is Changing I think people are actually Thinking more about not just hey is it Is it legal but is it right and if I can Leave with one thought is just think About that as you analyze managers Analyze people you work with I know Jason you look the world that way is not Just man it's like inside the law but Should I actually do this it's the right Place to put my energy my life's energy And that of my team on this company to See to succeed yeah and we make mistakes And we change the world and everything
In between uh and it's just such great Work it's great to work with you as a Partner everybody give it up for Antonio Gracias thank You okay most of us in the startup game Have heard of brex not only have they Perfected corporate cards for startups They've also built the financial stack The founders can Bank on nearly 40% of Startups fail due to running out of cash So to help Founders Rex has built a Banking experience that takes every Dollar further it can help protect your Cash and extend your startups Runway how By combining the best things about Checking Treasury and FDIC Insurance Into one powerhouse account Rex's Banking solution offers 20 times the Standard FDIC protection through program Banks industry-leading yield on your Cash and the ability to send money Worldwide at lightning speed so here's Your call to action brex is used by one In every three us startups amazing get The financial stack Founders trust at Brex.com Twist4 at brex.com Twist4 I hope you enjoy that as much as I did I always love hearing what Antonio Has to say now next up we have Gavin Baker he's the chief investment officer Over at a tradies management spent Nearly two decades at Fidelity running Their OTC portfolio and also helping
Lead their Venture Capital activity he Talks to Jason about investing humility And which big tech companies are moving The fast and doing the best work in AI Enjoy I try not to do many Fireside Chats here I I like to make everybody Sing for their supper and and really put A deck together but last year uh Gavin Baker come on up Gavin um from a Treaties um sang for his supper and most People said you when I I asked people Who's your favorite speaker good to see Her appreciate you coming out for me Cool and gav and I have become you know Colleagues and then friends over the Last couple years and I said hey you Know I have this event probably not Worth your time but I would love to you Know like introduce you to you know People in my Orbit and he came last year And he gave a talk and almost Universally people said that was the Best talk of the event but it was there Were a lot of good talks last year and And even this year as well and I said You know what this year just come back For the Fireside you don't have to do Any work if you would be willing to come Back and he said J alal for you I Support everything you do because I see How relentlessly supportive you are of Antonio and and our friends so thank you For coming back and we'll do a firesight Chat here we just get to wrap out and
You didn't have to do any any prep by The way I didn't prep last Year I didn't have any slides you did Have two slides I don't if so that's News to me you didn't I had no SL you Just spoke extemporaneously yeah I have A strict no preparation ever for Anything rule okay I did just want to Reflect on some of the things Megan said Um I thought that was one of the best Conversations I've ever heard that was Amazing I don't know if she's still There the lights are quite bright she's One of my favorite Twitter followers I Learned from her weekly email and I am Um I am rarely Star Struck when I am Introduced to someone um and Brad is a Good friend yeah but Brad introduced me To Megan um in Miami maybe I don't know Three months ago and I I was actually Star Struck um so Megan uh that was Great to meet you um they were very busy They had to run off um it was great to Meet Megan um also love Brad and I loved Her talk and I would just say a few Other things cuz it feels like maybe There's some people in the audience who Are trying to raise funds like just Really quick riffs and Reflections on What she said the first thing is is it All feels so personal like I know I'm Sure it feels personal to you and it Still feels so personal to me but it's Just not personal for the people on the
Other side of the table you know it just May be like they love you they don't Have an opportunity they really like you They don't do just they've got a lot of Other things going on um and just Recognize it's not personal and that Really helped me because um I still find It takes a big emotional toll uh because The rate of rejection you know is Incredibly High um you know i' would say Like 99 probably everybody in this room You succeed at most things you do um and Probably a lot of people were good Students and it's like there's like a 1% Success Rate raising money and so the 99% of the Times you get rejected they take a big Toll on you and just understanding that It's not personal um was really helpful To me uh I would also say they're Just Not That Into You yeah maybe they're Just not that into me no I mean to your Point I think the other side of the Table has their own multitudes of issues They are dealing with and I had some People pull me aside this is when I Actually took this to heart because to Be totally honest I am really not used To any kind of Rejection it it never Happens like I get it it's a very strange thing I Particularly understand it after seeing How good you looked in white last night Jason thank you sir no I'm not I'm not
Even talking about romantically or Anything like that I'm a happily married Man but I'm talking about just in Generally speaking I I am so used to Making friends or get you know in a seat Space like you know there's always room For me in a deal I have people who Reopen rounds i' I've had people reopen Their rounds six months after it to then Go meet with the lp community and and Then this is when I realized it took two Or three of these for me to realize oh This is not about you jao when two or Three different LP said to me after the Call they did a followup and they said Hey um I really enjoyed our call I just Wanted to talk to you real quick and I Said yeah I don't know how long I'm Going to be here exactly So uh what's it I mean Venture like What's it like on that side of the table I was like you're looking for a job it's Like well I'm considering some options Of I was like oh I'm meeting with people Who their situation is so acute that They're expecting to be fired or laid Off 100% on their side so that changed My whole dynamic like oh my God they're Taking the meetings because they have to Take meetings that's the job they have To take 200 meetings to make one Investment yeah just like we take 200 Meetings to get one to get one Investment oh this is just what Founders
Go through every day and once I had that Empathy and I was talking to a friend Who was raising his fund and he was Catatonic at that he couldn't get any Yeses and I said to him now I guess we Know what it's like to be Founders 100% And it's actually um I was always Surprised um before I did this you know Uh I generally show up to meetings with Company CEOs or Founders you know Knowing their name knowing the name of The company you know having done some Work on them having thought about some Questions prepared mind yeah prepared Mind to quote our friend uh Brad who Loves to say that and I was just always Shocked by how much it seemed to mean to The to the founders but it's like Sometimes you'll go to a meeting you Know with a let let me not speak ill but Just um it is you know it's not every Once in a while every once in a while You get uh who are you and why am I Meeting with you and it's like okay let Me let me set the stage you are an LP I Deploy Capital I've done well but having Said that we have you know lots of LPS Are amazing and great but I did just I Do have a lot more empathy like you say For Founders and you know just things Happened like um before uh before my Firm at tradies launched um like eight People from a very prestigious you know University endowment uh came to our
Office they spent five hours with me and I was just like oh my God this is Amazing they all followed my Twitter They were asking me all these questions About tweets I was so happy um and then The next day they're like oh we're Definitely not going to invest and then I went to lunch with one of them and I Was like oh you know what was that I Thought it was a great meeting there Like oh yeah we you know we love you but We're just not going to deploy anything Into your sector for many years and we Just want to meet with you because You're interesting and we thought it'd Be a good use of time for us and I was Like well did you think about like I'm Trying to watch a firm like but anyway Just some other things to Riff on things Megan said which I thought was great but Just it really is a journey it takes a Lot of it takes a lot of time you want To invest in those relationships and There are you know truly world class LPS Who will Who I think will go along with That Journey with you um if you kind of Follow all of Megan's rules um it'd be Really supportive through thick and thin And uh karma is also very very real um That just resonated with me so much like One of my rules is just always be super Nice to everyone and if someone is going Through a hard time be really nice to Them um not only is it the right thing
To do but it Often you know I try to bounce the ball To a lot of people the people who Consistently bounce it back are the People who I reached out to or tried to Be helpful when they're going through a Hard time and I think that's a great Rule for life but also for raising money And the last thing and then we can talk About AI or software or whatever you Want to talk about is just also Something uh Megan said is like you have To Ask like you know like just e even with People who you know it's very rare that Somebody is going to say hey just here Take my money yeah you have to ask People want to people want to be asked Um and I think getting comfortable doing That uh is important but anyways those Are just some thoughts inspired by Megan's epically awesome talk so we can I know I think this is the talk that Matters actually and by the way in terms Of the rule for life I it's very strange Where you pick things up you know like Childhood actually like really is Formative and you know one of the things I learned was like when somebody gets Their asses kicked like you got to go Like stand up for your friends and and Like that's that's like that's the Moment in time of friendship not the Moment of time when like you know they
Win the lottery and you go pop champagne Bottles with them and you're like hey You won the lottery this is Great yeah you know it's like when they Actually fall on their face and so it Just very naturally came to me when People got their asses kicked that I Should just immediately call them or Come to them and and say hey let's get a Let's get a dinner or drink or go for a Hike or something like that and I kind Of just expected everybody had that in Their DNA that's not in people's DNA the The shock the reaction is oh I just read A horrible news story about this person Something terrible happened I probably Should give them some space yeah and Then that person is sitting at home Alone on a Friday or Saturday night Saying I am a loser I have no Friends I am falling on my face and Nobody has called me and they interpret It as I've just failed at life yeah well I will I will share um I will share Where it came from for me and and I'll Admit it was not intuitive to me um but One of my best friends and mentors And I was Like 25 24 23 and somebody had gotten Fired um in a terrible way um from The Firm where we both worked you know not For anything unethical but just you know Probably bad performance and I said you Know hey you know I I really like that
Person you know I want to reach out but It just doesn't feel like the right Thing to do I should give him some space And she said no you should definitively Reach out and then I'm I'm sure I'm She's very close friend so hopefully It's okay with her and if it's not I'm Very confident she'll forgive me but she Um she told me about how her dad had Died when she was very young and she'd Been very close to her dad when she was Very young when she was 30 her dad They'd been best friends it was really Really hard you know Even you know 35 years later it's hard For her to talk about but she said you Know when my dad died um there were all These people who are good friends of Mine and they reached out and I was like Oh thank you I really appreciate that But then 80% of people didn't reach out And it took me a long time to understand Why they didn't reach out and to forgive Them and I just I had to understand they Didn't know what to say and they felt Awkward he said but the one group of People I never forgotten are people who Weren't good friends and reached out and Just said I'm sorry I don't know what to Say but I'm sorry I remember their names 35 years later and so it's just and they Weren't good friends yet they were good Friends yet and now they are yeah but Just kindness like I just think in the
Short term Sharky aggressive people Often get ahead but in over any Long-term time frame being kind being Loyal being ethical doing the right Thing standing by people when no one Else will um even if it's really Important they just matter so much and If you superimpose this on what we do For a living we make investments not Bets we make investments by the way I Have that problem too we do actually What what are you betting on now what Can we double down on exactly it Let's ship these chips all in yes the LPS were like why are these people so Crazy yes and why are we giving them Money yes yes I I mean I had one time One LP just decided they were like Double clicking and they were like tell Me about this company that you know like Failed and I was like W that's Interesting you bring that one up the Founder absconded with the money never Talk to us again and they just literally Took the 150k that we gave them and like Just burned it and they never responded To our emails and we're still chasing Them to try to disolve this company so We can get attacked right off yes They're they're in an they're in a Non-extradition country basic and I was Like they're like what was the diligence Process like I was like what do you mean Like due diligence and this is back in
The day when like when you gave a 100K Check you were just taking a flyer and Like you know like diligence it was just An idea that's not what you do now Jason That is not what you do now very careful Process oh my God the diligence we do we Have Founders complain like you're Putting in 250k and the person who's Leading the round didn't do as much Diligence as you I said what does that Tell you and they're like ah oh you've Made stupid bets before yes but if you Superimpose this discussion we're having About friendship about loyalty um and Karma and then Stu with Megan inredible Presentation legendary presentation what We do is place a series of bets and we Humbly Place those Investments and hope For the best it's going to take time did You do that on purpose did you do that On purpose kind of I go for a cheap Laugh sometimes okay okay that was just Like a soft yes it's like wow it's just Hanging up there for me to smash it but You have to be humble because the truth Is we don't know if they're going to pay Off to what extent they're going to pay Off and most importantly when so Somebody who is just getting smashed by Wave after wave and getting sucked under Could hit it you've had this happen You've gotten your ass kicked and you've Hit huge waves so I want to talk about Maybe that experience for you because
When you were at Fidelity man you beat 99% of your contemporaries then you made Your own fund and there have been bumps In the Road there are always uh bumps in the Wrote in public Equity investing I was Actually just reflecting if you're a Public Equity investor you have no Issues staying humble because I would Say the world's the world's best Investors are actually wrong 60% of the Time and then I would say your average Good professional investor is you know Probably only right low 50s per of the Time like I've seen bad averages on a Lot of investors so you're wrong a lot Um and even when you're having a great Year all you're consumed with is what You What you could have done differently and Then when you have a bad year um yeah It's public equities are very very Humbling and I do think particularly for Public Equity investing but in Venture Back to the comments about being a Journey resilience and grit and tenacity Are the Most important characteristics if you Want to have a career because no matter How good you are you're going to go Through really hard times and I've I Mean I've had many hard times in my Career as a public Equity investor Life um that one the worst was probably
That one I see it in your eyes the worst Was probably 2011 or 2012 Um and Um and I made two of the biggest Mistakes uh Simultaneously um and you know there's Good bets bad bets winning decisions bad Decisions um But I had been a uh I had run a telecom Fund at earlier in my career and for a Long time a really easy way to make Money in Telecom is whenever in almost Any Market or but particularly an Emerging Market where cell phone Penetration was still growing you bet on The company with the newest Network you Always won and the reason for that is The newest network is the best product And ultimately the best product wins the Reason it's the best product it has the Latest and greatest technology and also It's empty like no one can get a cell Phone signal you know at Grand Central Or Pin Station you know even you know at The at airports cell phone and that's Just cuz they're crowded the networks Are crowded a lot of people are there And so if you have an empty Network it's An amazing experience and then you know Word of mouth is the best way to sell Anything whether whether it's a firm or A um cell phone network there's a Company called Nexel International they Launched anybody knows it went bankrupt
Uh just a cut to the end of the story They had launched a brand new amazing Network um all over kind of uh South America and Mexico and it was by far the Best and they were coming into the Market they're a little lever you know Three times Lovered and then things just started to Go wrong that were out of their control A price War Boke broke out between two Of their biggest competitors the Exchange rate went the wrong way and They you have to pay for Telecom Equipment in dollars and the revenue Comes in other things just all these Things went wrong and at each point you You think hey maybe I should should Reduce the position but it felt like hey There's been an overreaction to this um And I'd so consistently made money on This um and I'm embarrassed to say I Think when the stock was maybe eight or $10 I wrote a letter to the board of Directors demanding they buy back not Demanding um you know I was not an Activist you know walking through the Merits of buying stock back I mean the Company's bankrupt 15 months later so That was a pretty that was a pretty bad Mistake but then I I actually think the Next year I had my um I had the best Year of my career um a lot of things Came through and just kind of have to Have the
Tenacity and the belief that hey I've Been doing this you know I have a Process I have a framework I have a Philosophy that works that has not Changed and I mean I will and just you Know you you have a lot of People if people are not shy about Sharing their opinions after you have a Really bad year and you're human and That impacts you and you just have to Have the resilience to continue making High quality decisions but yeah that was The hardest year it was a really hard Year um I went From I had two I had two moments in my Prior career when I was very young I was You know the highest Rated out of 200 analysts just a you Know I was 24 years old ah this is Amazing the next year they told me They're assigning me a new group And if I don't get the stocks right Quickly I will be Fired and that terrible year that I had The year before it was you know we think You're amazing we believe absolutely in Your you know process and everything you Know you're off to an incredible start And then one year later hey if you have Another bad year you might be fired I Mean and there are some great lessons in This which is you know there are highs And there are lows and then there is Your process
You you kept referring to the process And I think that's critical because the Outcomes are in some cases out of your Control in public equities are almost They generally are just have to have a Discipline right and then that Discipline and process you can actually Improve every day absolutely you can you Can get better every day at the process Even if you're missing the ball and I Will say quote another great for a Mentor of mine Steve wymer um you know Has a warn Buffet like track record on $150 billion Steve has two things always Stuck with in investing there's only two Things numbers and excuses and if you Don't have the first generally nobody Wants to hear the second wait wait wait Wait it's what an EXC there only two Things in investing numbers and excuses Numbers and excuses you don't have the First nobody cares about the second love It the other thing he would say is the Reason to never have a really bad year Is that um people either try to help you Or they put pressure on you and both of Those are the enemy of Excellence and just you know you you do Have to as a professional investor Manage the downside um you know it is What is it the disposition effect can't Remember but people value losses between Two and five times more than gains um Well fascinating yeah I do want to talk
About last year you talked about hey if You don't get your AI strategy Correct you're going to be roadkill Essentially like the gap between the People who get it right and the people Who don't is going to be like the spread Trade the the dispersion it's just it's Going to be brutal so here we are Exactly one year later AI has had quite A year in terms of the velocity of Product releases and it being Incorporated at least what I see on the Ground inside of startups who are the First to adopt these kind of Technologies because they're resource Constrained and they always look for an Advantage at an edge and what I'm seeing Is 100% adoption of anything that can Make their firm you know their three or Four person or 30 or 40 person firm more Competitive eliminate jobs uh make the People who are working there more Efficient it is a ruthless unbelievable You know sort of process now what are You seeing in the big Enterprises and With the companies that we were talking About last year whether it's Google Apple Amazon let's just go through the Top 10 companies or so and did they did They embrace it yeah who embraced it the Most who did the worst job embracing it And who kind of kicked the can down the Road let's put him into three buckets Yeah crushed it it up or like a
Sleep at the wheel well this is not a Commentary on stock performance just Specifically about execution on AI to me if you think about Google a Year ago it was at dawn we slept December 7th 1941 they were you know there you know There's there this company with a Country called club culture um and which I'm sure they still have who hadn't Really shipped anything maybe in a long Time time they have this you know search Is probably the world's single best Business you could probably run that and Generate all of the revenue with no Human beings um it could be a 10 person Company it could be a 10 person company Literally um and open AI comes out and Um it was a question will you know will The sleeping giant awaken you know Yamato after Pearl Harbor um wrote a Letter where he said hey you know given Japan and the Imperial Navy an Incredible Victory and I'll continue to Do so for a year I will drive America Across the Pacific and it will be an Unbridled string of Victories and he Said but if America doesn't give up Going back to grit and resilience then Eventually the steel mills of Detroit And the oil wells of Texas will Overwhelm me and Japan and after this First year it will be continuous defeat And that's eventually what happened
Because America had resolve which is Awesome yay America um yes by have super P we also immigrated all the great Scientists around the world 100% to have Us win the most important race that Ended that you know tragically you know Ended that bring all the world's Smartest Jewish people to America in World War II many of them um from Russia And Eastern Europe was an enormous win For the country perhaps a lesson we need To meditate on course yes yes Recruitment of we talked I had Antonio Gr this year I think you've met him um He was here yesterday and we talked About immigration and just why are we Not recruiting the smartest people we Can find no it's the biggest Advantage America has I mean outside of you know We have two oceans incredible natural Resources but all the world's smartest People want to come here and we should Take them all not only does it help us But in many cases it weakens our enemies But I'm very pro-american I didn't say y Americ lightly I'm super pro-american Very Pro National Defense and investing I'm very grateful to um be a citizen I Think America's greatest country you can Be patriotic you won't get cancelled yes We moved past that Insanity now you can Fly an American flag um yeah yeah right Side up yes um fly an American flag Right side up and by the way you could
Always do that just you know and you can Do it upside down it's your right it's Your right certain people which is one Of the great things about America um but Anyways coming back to Google which is also rich in resources Well defended with two oceans you know Those Whe and you know America we have the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean they have Android and chrome which are really Dominant Distribution Systems but they Woke up they put dibus in charge of AI They've started to really lever uh Leverage the fact that they do have Their own compute infrastructure that is Really unique and really differentiated To this day large language models have Only been trained on three kinds of Chips Nvidia Cerebras And Google's tpus And this guy dius um is ruthless Effective started Deep Mind which was The original open AI Um and you know he's you know he is a Wartime General and he is in Charge I think from my perspective Gemini was the first time that open AI Was ever passed and it does have a Really important Advantage um it can do Context caching in a way that no other Llm can and I think it's going to take Maybe people time to appreciate how
Powerful this is what that basically Means is it remembers questions that it Has been asked and if it has in a in a Given use case and if it's given a good Answer it just goes back to that answer So for all of these Enterprises that You're seeing these startups that are Trying to save money the AI has to think Again every time it's asked a Question because of Google's TPU Architecture they can do context caching And we will see Whether that is in the next generation Of gpus from Nvidia or um AMD um you Know Jensen has seen around so many Technical Corners he's an exceptional Google's back Google's back okay so they Got it right this year Nvidia obviously Is crushing it crush it then we look at Apple asleep at the wheel well I think Somewhere in between I think apple is About to wake up and I think um so that Could be a parallel to what we saw with Google yeah and I do think Apple's Strategy is generally not to be the First but almost to be the last and the Best you know um the pal the Palm Pilot Came out in 2001 and I think at one Point Palm had a bigger market cap than Like apple Dell fet Packard compact all These companies combined and you know Now where's where's where's where's Palm Nowhere um it's an operating system for LG
TVs yes that is literally where it is um So first isn't always uh most important But if you're going to be last you need To be best and apple makes more money Off search than anyone but Google Because they own iOS which is another Toll booth on the internet just like Android and chrome and I think what you Will see them do this is this is what I Would do if I were them um I would have A small on device llm that is privacy Safe and can access all of your Information and you trust it because Apple has built a brand around privacy And then whenever that llm doesn't know What to do it asks open AI permission to Go to the cloud yeah permission to go to The cloud yeah I think you're right Because I I noticed in my ioto library Or which is just Apple photos now There's a little AI wizard button and When you press it it's like that's a Bulldog and you know uh whatever a Tesla Behind it and there and you can see the Power of exactly what you're saying on Your phone Every 10th photo has it and they're just Subtly going to make it so when you go Into photos and say hey I need pictures Of my Bulldog when it was a puppy and It'll be like which one taus or fondu or Toro or well even more important instead Of doing searches you'll say instead of You know doing searches for you know
Best vacation in Italy you'll just say Hey book me a vacation you know I will Like give me three choices in Italy and Then why don't you pick another country That you think I'd like that I didn't Suggest then we'll say here four options Press one boom And this is you know agents and actions And transactions replacing search and I Think this will happen I think agents Are going to be massive before I leave That I will just say this is a Two-year-old iPhone it's the first time I've had a 2-year-old iPhone you tell It's cracked same with me you skipped a Generation you skip 15 because there was Nothing that mattered uh the camera's Good enough but to have that local AI Model running have my have my Jarvis Have my Gavin AI that knows me and likes Me it is friendly to me and you know Will protect me protect protect me in a You know the Terminator World um where We're where we're worth upgrading I Can't remember if we're Gavin's Angels Or Jason's Angels but we're uh we're We're in the resistance this proc this Has enough compute power to run that llm It doesn't have enough memory and this Is very important because right now the The two rate limiting factors for AI They're no longer computed in gpus it's Power finding places to plug the gpus in And to get to AGI we're eventually going
To have to have one gwatt data Data Center and then a 5 gwatt data center in Our lifetime there will be data centers That are bigger than Manhattan forget The Pentagon whoa whoa whoa whoa like Vertically every way um the all the Largest buildings like in our lifetimes The 100 largest buildings in the world Will be data centers and The World Is Now power constrained there's only three Places in the United States that you can Um put in one of these data centers There's a massive competition to have Them it's got to be somewhere Near nucle reor you need multiple Nuclear reactors that are unregulated Within 50 miles of each other given the Current state of Technology but that's One constraining thing for AI the other Is something called hbm memory high Bandwidth memory um this is the primary AIS of compet of competition and most Compute Micron and highx today Samsung Has lost their way and and Micron and SK HX it's a Korean company it's a gray Company to make high Bend with memory You need 4X more wafer space than make The dam that goes into this iPhone so if Apple doubles or triples the amount of Memory in the iPhone and then Google do The same for Android phones at the same Time to enable AI on the phone that this Is happening in the data centers I think You could have the first real memory
Cycle since 1996 and in 1996 and we'll see this Probability and it's not going to happen But in 1996 Micron was a 50 bagger and You the prices of Dr if it is the rate Limi thing for selling iPhones and AI We'll see where it goes um so I think That's important to talk about in the Context of Apple but please what else uh I think we got it okay I think you gave It to us awesome I mean lightning round Amazon sideways up or down I me I Haven't heard a PE would say they have Been sideways they're trying hard a core Belief of mine is if you're a foundation Model company and you do not have unique Data and internet scale Distribution you are the fastest Depreciating asset in human history and I think most of these companies are Zeros and there's like 10 of them yeah And I think the only hope most of them Have of getting the preference back is For Amazon to Aqua hire them the way Microsoft did with inflection yeah and Then when when we're on the other side Of that we AGI I think those few Companies that make it are going to be Immensely valuable but that's Amazon Sideways sideway sideways with AI That's the question here they could Be crushing it in other places but on That case and then Microsoft obviously Top of their game yeah I would say top
Of their game but everybody else has Raised their game so the relative Advantage got it has probably slowed Down and meta is in a much better Position than they were and just you Know to me true greatness for Mark Zuckerberg would be to rename the Company you know again Yes again to What call Facebook again Call It Whatever call it Big Blue Ai call it AGI Just rename it and I I give the guy a Lot of credit for being so publicly in On the metaverse which by the way I Think will still eventually happen um That's GNA be a legendary Misadventure yeah ceoing I think in 15 Years it'll probably look okay um but it Was just the metaverse just need many More cycles of Mor's law so you can have AR glasses that work um you know the Meta Ray bands are good and then Ultimately we need brain computer Interfaces to work and then you will Have the metaverse nobody wants this on their nobody wants this on Their face man it's hard enough to wear Ski goggles for a couple hours I'd be I'd be so into like I I mean I have Prescription glasses but for goggles no Yeah not for goggles but I mean I would Be very into if they can that's what I Mean you need you just need six years of Moors law making these chips smaller More energy efficient be able to fit in
You know whatever kind of glasses then We'll get it but he's pivoted hard Hard putting a search box on the top of Every app is Gangster it's gangster that Is a shot across the bow of Google and Anybody else in the industry like I am Willing to take my top real estate the Top of the search bar on every App I have on three four billion phones Whatever he's got and I yeah I'll just Divert all your traffic absolutely What's up yeah and we're going to have An epic competition what's up what's up Yeah he's like what's up gold chain What I'm I'm going to MMA by the way I Thought that that was real the one of Him with the uh with the goatee the Goatee yeah I was like he's like it I'm you guys you guys want to get in my Grill about meta yes it I'm going I'm going MMA gold chain yes it This guy's coming out for Trump next yes Exactly no he doesn't care all right Give it up for Gavin B awesome thanks Everybody thanks lot thank you thanks Good I hope you enjoyed all of that I Took a lot of notes myself when they Were talking but I be remissed to not Give three more shout outs Before I Let You Go the sponsors of the event were Fantastic they helped make it happen so A big thank you to eventus advisory they Are a leader in OneMain Finance and Accounting support then there's Vin Sher
V n S they do in thein solutions for payroll HR benefits and even risk management and Then there's Forge Global a very Well-known secondary Marketplace for Startup shares so if you're looking to Buy stock in that company you don't work For well Forge might have the answer for You I'm Alex I'm at Alex over on Twitter I write at cautious optimism and I also Write the twist 500 newsletter here for Launch I'll talk to you soon goodbye
