Welcome back thank you so much for Joining me in today's video red fin Actually just posted today that we have All-time record highs for home prices Yet some leading indications are showing Some slowdown ahead so let's go and Dive Right In This was just announced on June 27th which is today hope you guys Appreciate these timely updates it says The typical us home that sold during the Four weeks ended June 23rd they Basically look at Trends on a weekly Basis looking at a 4-week rolling Average so during the previous 4 weeks Um houses on average for houses that did Sell they sold for. 3% less than the Final asking price this marks the first Time the typical home in the United States sold under the list price this Time of the year since the onset of this Pandemic I'll explain though in today's Video how this is not really that big of A deal because back um one year ago House on average sold for the asking Price now they're only 3% less so a very Small difference compared to 1 year ago It says that right here the typical home Sold for exactly the list price 1 year Ago and roughly 2% above the list price Two years ago so two years ago and 3 Years ago houses on average were selling For over the sellers asking price now They're selling for slightly below Asking price on average I'll share a
Chart with you guys here in a little bit To kind of explain this again I really Wish they provide hous this compared to 2019 I'll share some stats regarding M Area which is the Greater St area on Average houses are selling for the Sellers asking price uh at 100% so a Little bit different compared to the National average in any case Additionally just under 2/3 or 32.3% of us houses sold over the asking Price during the for ended June 23rd That's the lowest share of any late Springtime since 2020 so approximately 32% of houses are selling over the Sellers asking price and then again Approximately what 68% are selling below Or at the sell's asking price right now Also at 32.3% selling over asking right now this Is down from the 36% we saw one year ago On top of that the share price Reductions just increased to 7% the Highest level since November of 2022 and up by 4.7% from a year ago they Also mention here the likelihood of House is selling below the asking price Is increasing because there's more Supply than demand I been talking about This for quite some time right new Listings increasing yet pending home Sales decreasing we we're seeing an Influx of inventory versing contracts Being signed actually going down uh
Compared to a year ago now I always say Real estate is local right so in the Greater Sacramento area which includes Roseville Rockland fulam uh basically a Half an hour drive of Sacramento which Is my territory this by the way I pulled Directly from our MLS and I'll make a Separate video regarding um Sacramento Housing Trends but I just want to share This because what we're seeing on a National level may not pertain to your Area we're just talking about National Trends which is different in each region Of course every Market as well so Looking at in Sacramento the light um Green bars are the number of houses for Sale this is a 5year chart going back to May of 2019 also looking at May of 2024 Obviously the most recent Trends we have So looking at 2019 we had over 4,500 Houses for sale every single month these Are only single family houses so for Example back in May of 2019 5,000 houses For sale and only 2500 sales so we saw a Big disparity here regarding sales much Less than inventory levels much Different compared to 2020 I should say The last half of 2020 through early of 2022 sales were very very close to the Amount of house ofer sale so um houses On average we selling for less than We're selling for uh about one week time So you list your house sale it's sold in About one week or less and so the new
Listings were getting gobbled up by all These buyers who are taking on a 3% rate Right so uh back um then sales and Inventory levels were more or less on Par with each other which is much Different than 2019 and 2022 and also Right now as well this is more normal See sales much less than inventory Levels which is much different compared To the craziness of 2021 but looking at This this chart right here inventory is Down 44.2% compared to May of 2019 and sales Are down by 35% as well in addition take A look at this here's the months of Inventory let me just share this very Very quickly look at this the month Supply in Sacramento is at 1.7 months absolutely insane I mean it's Much higher compared to the. 7 months we Had in late 2021 but at 1.7 months this Is actually lower than 2019 when back Then the month supply was over 2 months In any case let's get back to redin Report I just want to share that because Every Market is different and by the way I'll provide a link in the video Description below if you guys want to See this article from Redfin um but Let's actually to talk about some lead Indications I haven't talked about rates In quite some time they talk about the Rate yesterday which I'm making this Video on June 27th so let's look at
Today's rates uh rates really haven't Changed very much in about one week Right now for 30-year fix again for People with great credit ping 25% down Your average rate according to the Mortgage News Daily is at 7.05% FHA and VA loans is around 6.5% That's normal to have VA and FHA Loans Approximately 50 basis points less than A 30-year fix also one year ago for a 30-year fix we were at 6.92% so rates have increased by about 13 basis points compared to 12 months Ago also looking at this chart above Here rates have been increasing more or Less all year they peaked at around 7.5% about 2 months ago and have been Decreasing uh more or less um ever since Then except for this blip right here but Rates haven't really um changed a whole Lot over the past uh couple of weeks now And obviously this is much different Compared to the 8% rates we had back in October last year all right going back To revan's report they also talk about Applications for mortgages to buy houses That increased by only 1% compared to One week ago this is according to the MBA it's still down by 133% Year-over-year also red Fin's home buyer Demand index uh that's an index which Measures requests for home tours and Other home buying Services uh that was a Increase of 5% from 1 month ago but down
By double digits from 12 months ago Touring activity this is from showing Time this is a kind of a a snapshot Regarding real estate showings across North America not every real estate Agent uses showing time actually can't Remember remember last time I actually Used them but it provides a glimpse to In regards to how many Realtors or real Estate agents are showing houses to Their clients for the week ended June 23rd home showings increased by 27% Compared to the first week this year at This time last year we're only at by 15% So overall we have rates have been Around 7% for quite some time Applications um for mortgages down by 133% Red fins index down by 14% Year-over-year And also touring activity Uh is still up by 27% compared to the Start this year uh but Google searches Are still down by 15% year over year uh This by the way our Google searches for Homes for sale and also that's unchanged Compared to 1 month earlier all right Talk about home prices inventory levels New listings days in the market and a Lot of other stats so this covers the Forex ended June 23rd it they basically Look at 400 plus us metros uh their data Or the weekly data goes back to 2015 and It is subject to revision each and every Week so the median S price Nationwide is At
397,000 that's up by 4.9% year-over-year Which is the biggest increase since March this year and also this is an All-time record high as well this is not Only redin reporting all-time record Highs I get um some comments recently Regarding how the data is manipulated we Can't believe this data um and why am I Even talking about it but according to The National Association realtorss redin The California Association Realtors and Also uh core logic regarding their um S&P core logic K Shiller index which is A repeat sales method in order to gauge Home price trends also reporting All-time record highs for prices this um Last report and also the previous month As well so I'm basically saying here is Is that um reports from redin the California Association rors Nar uh Regarding the median so price all Recording alltime record highs and Prices but also core logic using a Different different methodology Regarding home price trends using the Repeat sales method they basically look At okay here's all the house that sold During this 3 Monon um period let's look At the previous sold price for that Exact same house in order to figure out The uh uh home price trends uh over the The or on a national level whereas the Me and so price is just the middle Number right so of all the houses that
Sold over the previous four weeks half Sold for over this amount and half sold For less than amount and I've been Telling you guys as well that these Figures regarding the medi and St price Is convoluted uh to a certain extent or Impacted due to the increase of luxury Home sales we're seeing luxury home Sales increase quite a bit and that's Causing or kind of impacting I should Say uh the overall meeting so price We're seeing more home sales in the Luxury Market compared to more Affordable houses and that is impacting Um the median S price but also in Accounting for the fact we're seeing Alltime record highs for prices Regarding the repeat sales method that Is also very telling as well telling us We have still a sellers Market overall In the existing Market in which sellers Have an advantage over home buyers right Now in any case let's move on uh the Meing monthly mortgage payment this is Based on the weekly rate according to Freddy Mack for a third-year fix at 6.87% also looking at the median asking Price at about 500 or $415,000 that is an increase of 7.5% Year-over-year at $2,785 per month that's only $54 less per month compared to the All-time record highs set back in April Now remember when I said how we have
Pending home sales increasing yet new Listing increasing so pending sales a Measure of contracts being signed Between home buyers and home sellers That decreased by 4.3% year over year the biggest decrease In 4 months in contrast new linges Increased by 88.2% the biggest increase In 2 months also active listings uh Increased by 16.9% so new lines hit in The market Rose by 8% we have 17% more House of our sale yet pending sales Decreased by 4.3% so this to me is telling me that we Have a softening our housing market Right now because we're seeing um Supply Or new Supply coming in um Rising where Contracts being signed actually Decreasing yet the month supply is still Very low though at only 3.3 months and By the way according to redin a balanced Housing market is in the range of four To 5 months I would say historically Speaking yes that is true but what I More focused on is the rate of increase And that's what we saw in 2022 the um Inventory levels were at all-time record Highs in February and March and then Inventory obiously skyrocketed causing Home prices decrease even though the Month supply was still at very low Levels all right so speaking of home Prices let's take a look at the 50 Biggest cities the most popul ones so
Out of these 50 metros the biggest Increases of home prices is Anaheim California leading Nation once again up By 16 % year-over-year after that is Nsel County up by 14.4% then we have New Brunswick New Jersey New York New Jersey And West Palm Beach Florida uh the Biggest decreases there actually four of Them 46 of the 50 biggest cities have an Increase of their median sold price Compared to 12 months ago so the biggest Decreases are San Antonio Texas Austin Texas Dallas Texas and Fort Worth Texas Only four metros and they're all located In Texas let also take a look at pending Sales so pending sales increase the most In San Jose California up by 14.7% then we have Pittsburgh San Francisco Anaheim and Columbus Ohio the Biggest decreases look at that Houston Texas down by 15.1% then we have West Palm Beach Florida Atlanta San Antonio and Miami Florida look at this new listings Rose By nearly 41% in San Jose and about half That in Miami up by 22% San Diego is up By 21% Anaheim up by 19% and Phoenix Arizona increased by 19.2% in contrast the biggest decreases Of nines were Chicago down 7.6% Atlanta 7.5 Detroit 2% then we saw Less than 1% decrease in uh Minneapolis Minnesota and Portland Oregon all right Let's take a look at Red Fin's data
Center again I'll provide a link in the Video description below new lines are Increasing um up by 8 .2% um uh which is of course higher than Last year last year we were down 25% now We're up by 8.2% right now over the Previous 4 weeks we have around 100,000 New listings but this is approximately 20,000 less than 2021 and 2022 at this time in regards to pending Sales so pending sales decrease by 4.3% it's also at least a three-year low As well so 2021 this time about 118,000 Pendings right now only 85,000 this is why we're seeing active Listings or housing inventory uh Rising Now we're up by nearly 177% whereas to start the year we Basically had the same number of hous of For sale um compared to 2023 and 2021 it's also worth noting here that Inventory was Rising during the Spring Months but right now it's it's actually Coming down which is actually pretty Unusual um active listings tends to peak In the late um summer months and not in The um what uh in basically June uh it Is still Rising but the gains are much Much less compared to the spring months Of this year so we actually could be a Scenario in which um active listings go Below 20022 levels um um back in um
August we'll have to see what happens But right now we're not seeing new Listings skyrocketing they did increase Compared to the previous week but in Order to see you know basically Supply Far outpacing um demand you would want To see uh new listings basically uh Increasing Big Time Andor pending sales Basically going like this falling off a Cliff uh we are at at least a threeyear Low but it's not too far off last year's Levels right now all right going back to Revin support let's look at um H average Monthly housing payments again around uh $2,800 per month um this is of course You know much higher compared to uh 2021 This time uh back then your average Housing payment was around what $1600 Per month so you're paying around uh $1,100 to about $1,200 more per month to Buy an average price home today compared To 2021 at this time uh sad but true um Can you see a lack of housing Affordability uh Nationwide right now Let's also take a look at the month Supply uh that's still at a relatively Low levels um historically speaking but We're also at at least a three-year high As well at 3.3 months one year ago the Month supply was around 2.7 months what Should happen um right now is an Increase uh for uh the remainder of the Year because inventory levels or I Should say the month supply uh tends to
To peak in the winter months each and Every year okay let's change gears Slightly here and talk about days on the Market so days in the market was at 31 Days this means that you list your home For sale we're looking at national Average you get your house sold or your Accept an offer from home buyer in 31 Days this is at least a threeyear high Uh which is actually um pretty Interesting over the past couple of Months now because on average houses um Are taking longer to sell compared to Last year's levels which is different Compared to uh January through basically April where houses were selling faster Compared to 2023 and ever since May that Got reversed houses taking longer sell On average right now going back to my um Mls in Sacramento this is actually much Different compared to uh the national Average um because in in the greater Sacramento area houses are actually um Selling faster compared to a year ago so May of 2024 it's taking only 22 days to sell a House one year ago 27 days that's a Decrease of 18.5% uh year-over-year also compared to May of 2019 also selling faster as well 22 days Right now may of 2019 at 26 days so Houses taking are are selling faster Compared to one year ago and 5 years ago
As as well in the greater Sacramento Region and by the way if you guys want Me to make a separate video regarding The Sacramento housing market um please Leave me a comment below happy to make a Video about that I tend to make a video About the sacrament housing market about Once per month uh but again um please Leave me a comment below if you guys Want to see a separate video regarding That all right so going back to Ren Report let's talk about price drops that Has been basically skyrocketing ever Since April we're at 6.7 um% which is I think top wi compared To uh November uh back in November of 2022 the share price shops was also Around 6.7% what is different this year Compared to 2022 though is that um in January this year we were already at 3.5% whereas in January of 2022 it Basically was at 1.7% so share of price drops basically Skyrocketed in 2022 whereas this year we Are at at a at least a three-year high But we started at a much higher level Basically double compared to the Starting point of 2022 Also let's take a Look at the average sale price to final List price ratio that was at 99.7% which means that basically on Average for all the houses that sold Over the previous 4 weeks they sold for3
Percentage points less than the final Asking price or the final asking price Of the home seller but like I mentioned The very beginning this video video not That big of a deal because we're not too Far off last year's levels last year That ratio was at 100% right now we're At 99.7% so not a big change compared to One year ago but a big change compared To the Past uh several years because in 2022 and 21 houses on average were Selling for about 2% over the sellers Asking price and lastly let's take a Look at the um red fin home buyer demand Index that actually increased last week But still down by 14% year-over-year And At least a three-year low as well what Catches my attention the most regarding This uh chart here is 2022 I mean the Index basically fell off a cliff uh Starting in April basically decrease for The remainder of the Year especially in April through June whereas this year we Did see a small blip in the spring home Bin season but ever since then more or Less has been coming down except for This last uh week in any case uh please Leave a comment below your biggest Takeaways from today's video my biggest Takeaway is uh of course this um Supply Versus um demand imbalance we're seeing Um pending home sales decreasing yet new Listings and active listings um Rising
Compared to 12 months ago which is a Common Trend we've been seeing uh Looking at Rin support for about a month Now um so uh very interesting to see That um you know we're not seeing a Big C verge of Supply yet we're not also not Seeing a big increase or big decrease of Pending sales it is falling but it's not Falling off a cliff right now any case That's my biggest takeaway but what's Yours please leave me a comment below With your uh your thoughts regarding That um also if you guys are still Watching today's video please hit the Like button I greatly appreciate that of Course I appreciate you guys so much for Supporting my YouTube channel I only got 5 hours of sleep last night so a pretty Challenging video to make today um so Hope makes sense anyways hope you guys Have an awesome day I look forward to Seeing you on next video [Music] [Music]
