If you're looking to buy a house in California well I have good news but I Also have bad news as well the good news Is that there's nearly 40% more houses For sale compared to one year ago so Depending on where you where you live You may see a lot more options to choose From the other bit of good news is that Mortgage rates and home prices have Started to decrease the bad news is is That even though home prices have Started a decrease we're not too far off The all-time record high that was set Back in May this this year in today's Video I have an update for you guys Regarding the California housing market Update this is part one of my two-part Video series I make each and every month For you guys so in today's video we're Going to talk about what's happening Right now at the Statewide level Regarding home prices housing inventory The share of price reductions and much Much more and by the way if you guys Want a real estate agent in California Or anywhere across the United States Check out my website which is real Estate TEF finder.com and um I'll link You up with a great real estate agent in Your NE of the Weds with that said I Have a lot to share in today's video I'm Actually really excited to share this With you guys so let's begin here's a Slideshow from the California
Association realtorss that was just Posted a couple of days ago regarding What's happening right now at the Statewide level for existing single Family houses so this video excludes Multif Family Properties such as Apartment buildings condos Etc but also We're only talking about existing houses In other words excluding brand new home Construction this covers the month of July by the way so let's look at this Snapshot first so home sales increased By 4.1% compared to July of 2023 this figure right here just under 280,000 that is season ingested it's Also analyes as well so basically on the Current sales Pace as of July multiply That by 12 do a seasonal adjustment you Would get uh to 280,000 over the next 12 months that Sales up by 4.1% year-over year the Meting sale price is at 88656022470 But an increase of 16% compared to July Of 2023 days in the market's at 20 days A big increase of 25% so 20 days means That you list your home for sale on Average you accept an offer from home Buyer in about 20 days okay before we Talk about home prices let's take a look At sales because sales jumped to the Highest level since February this year Um pretty crazy here that um sales Increased by 3. 6% in one single month And we're still up by 4.1% year-over
Year um you know kind of provide some Context regarding this is that you know It's great to see that sales um the Biggest increase since February uh but You know ever since really the last half Of 2022 we've had this lack of home sales Uh in California but also in the nation As a whole so for example we're at Around what 290,000 or 280,000 right now Looking at 2016 through 2019 we're basically over 400,000 so lack of home sales uh in California but also across the United States as well in my opinion the lack of Home sales is really due to the fact we Have this affordability crisis in California and this is kind of true for The nation as a whole uh because rates Have increased so much and also home Prices have increased so much over the Past 5 years and of course a lot of People um have you know rates very low On their houses less than 3% less than 4% and those people are not really Forced to sell their house unless they Have a financial hardship and because of That we're not seeing a giant surge of New listings or people listing their House for sale so we're seeing Supply Decreasing relatively speaking and also Um uh sales also decreasing as well and When I say decreasing I mean U much
Lower levels compared to pre-co levels Now here's something that's been Happening as well so this is the percent Of um sales by price range so for sales For in the range of 1 million to $2 Million that increased by 24% this July Compared to July of 2023 we also saw a big gain of sales Over $2 million surging by 26% in contrast sales in the range of 400 to 499,000 small gain of 1% and for These other price buckets decreasing Year-over-year so we're seeing sales at The up range of the market increasing by More than 20% whereas uh sales basically In negative territory for less than 400,000 I mention this because we're Seeing more sales in the luxury I Shouldn't say luxury because a million Doll home in the San Francisco Bay area Is basically a fixer but we're seeing More sales of more expensive properties Compared to one year ago which is Impacting overall the meeting sale price Here in California another way to look At this is right here sales over $1 Million this July represented 35% of all Home sales uh in California last year it Was only 32% in contrast sales for less Than 500,000 including zero so let me Know if you guys got a house for free But home sales for less than 500,000 That was 22% of all home sales this July And that was at 25% one year ago so
Sales of $1 million was about 35% but Less than 500,000 at 22% also take a Look at this here is the sales growth by Price segment so here's the uh key right Here and this is what I want to focus on On right here so the green bars are Sales in the range of $1 million to just Under $2 million sales for over $2 Million are the dark blue bars so as you Can see back in the early parts of 2024 Giant increase in sales over $1 million Uh that was a increase of 30% in the Range of 1 million and 2 million but a Giant increase over 50% for sales over 50% look what happened in June though in June we saw actually a decrease in sales Uh in the range of1 million to $2 Million which is right here but a small Gain of only 10% for over $2 million That got reversed though because again We're up by what was it um by 24% in the 1 million to $2 million range and up by 26% for over $2 million so we're seeing More sales at the upper range of the Market this July which is much different Compared to June but not nearly as crazy Compared to the start this year and also Compared to April this year so overall What this means to me is that back in More or less February and April uh we Saw a giant increase in sales for over $1 million which likely impacted did Overall the median sale price and right Now we're less than that but still way
Below or way higher compared to jun's Numbers which has a lesser impact Overall regarding the Statewide uh Trends we're seeing right now this Phenomenon regarding big increases in Sales over $1 million is actually um Pretty crazy when looking at 2019 so for example back in uh July 2019 Let's just say the early parts of 2019 The summer months um back then around 45% of all home sales were for less than 500,000 in contrast sales for over $1 Million back then was around what 15 to About 20% now look at this we're seeing More sales right now at 35% for over $1 Million then sales for less than 500,000 At 22.4% so in my opinion not only we seen Sales decrease for less than 500,000 but Of course a lack of inventory or house Ver sale for less than that amount as Well in contrast a big increase in sales Over $1 million and of course inventory Up in that segment as well all right Changing gears slightly here to talk About pending home sales a measure of Contracts being signed between buyers And sellers of existing single family Houses so pending home sales actually Increase by 2.1% year over year uh we've Been seeing small gains or small Decreases basically all year now so We're not seeing giant increases in Sales we're also not seeing giant
Decreases in sales as well in contrast Look at um the early parts of 2021 pending home sales surged by 80% Compared to one year ago which of course Caused sales or close home sales to Surge uh one or two months after that And again right now we're still at Relatively low levels basically flat uh From one year ago which implies that s Close home sales will likely to remain Very low in the coming months as well Okay let's talk about prices I have a Lot to share regarding that and by the Way if you guys are getting any value of Today's video then please hit like Button I really appreciate that so let's Talk about this so overall in California We're um just under 887 th000 a decrease Of 1.6% compared to June but still up by 6.5% year-over-year and just like Carr Mentions this is the first time in 4 Months that overall uh home price have Decreased below the $900,000 mark all Right let's get a little bit nerdy here And talk about my own analysis of their Data regarding home prices here in California uh this is a um um Excel file Pulled from the California Association RoR website probably two years ago and Every month I just add on to this right So uh we're talking about July right so Home prices and when I say home prices I'm talking about the meeting sale price
Which means that half the houses sold Sold below that number and half sold Above that number right that's the Median number so home prices for close Home sales in July is mostly based on Contracts being signed between buyers And sellers buyers getting offers Accepted back in June back in June According to Freddy Mack the average Rate for the entire month was at 6.92% that was a 3mon low which could Cause or could have caused sales to Increase in July because rates increase To a 3-month low also rates have been Coming down ever since then uh which um Will be interesting to see if that uh Causes sales to increase further in the Month coming months here's what I mean By this back in June the average rate Was at 6.92% for average 30-year fix according To Freddy Mack at 6.92% that was the lowest rate since March this year but ever since then Rates have been coming down in July it Decreased to 6 85% and so far this August uh and by the way I'm filming This video August 26th the monthly uh Rate for 30-year fix decreased to 6.54% so of course I would love to hear From you guys regarding this do you guys Feel that rates decreasing from about 6.92% to 6.5% will get buyers off the fence to
Buy houses because your um purchasing Power just increased but also your Monthly housing payment of course Decreases when rates decrease as well so Please leave me a comment below what are Your thoughts regarding that do you guys Think that the decrease in rates is Going to impact the housing market here In California all right getting back to Uh my fun Excel spreadsheet here uh Overall we're at 88656022470 Right now is somewhat of a seasonal Decrease in the median sale price Because during this time of year um home Prices tend to start decreasing or They're basically flat at best and I Have more to share regarding that here In a little bit um also on a year-year Basis we're up by 6.5% this is much higher compared to Last year's increase last year's time Back in July 2023 compared to 2022 we Barely squeaked out a gain up by . 2% This year we're up by 6.5% Year-over-year this also marks the 13th Consecutive month of year- ofe gains After eight consecutive months of Decreases however the 6.5% increase this Year is actually lower than the Long-term historical average the long Run average is a gain of 88.3% going back to the year of 2010 my biggest takeaway regarding this Is that sale prices have been increasing
At a faster clip compared to one year Ago but still looking at historical Averages we're actually running a little Bit behind that so we're up compared to A year ago but last year we're at this Uh kind of weird timeline because back In July of 2023 compared to 2022 a barely small Increase of0 2% before that from November through June we saw decreases Year-over-year Looking at the month-to-month decrease Down by 1.6% compared to June uh this is Actually a bit more of a seasonal Decrease in other words we're seeing More than a seasonal decrease right now Because the long run average during uh July this is June through July uh every Year going back to the year of 2010 is a Small gain of. 4% so it's actually Normal to see home prices relatively Flat compared to June whereas this year Were down by 1.6% and my personal opinion regarding This is that one of the reasons why I Feel that home prices um are down a Little bit more compared to the long run Average is due to inventory increasing By more than 40% from 12 months ago Which of course means that home sellers Have to compete against each other more So often than not um compared to one Year ago and because of that we're not Seeing this runaway price growth like we
Saw in 2020 and 21 also for comparison Sake um home prices decreased by. 4% From June through July in 2019 this year we're down by 1.6% so worse than preco levels in 2019 however though home prices Basically cratered by 5% month to month Back in July of 2008 so of course things Could be a lot worse right but wait There's more I want to share how the Changes in prices compared to one year Ago compared to years past especially Compared to uh pre pandemic era so back In July 2018 through July of 2019 um home prices increased by 2.8% this year again it increased by 6.5% in contrast 2017 through 18 it Increased by 7.6% quite a bit higher compared to the 6.5% gain we're seeing this year also 16 Through 17 it increased by 7.4% also quite a bit higher compared to The gains we're seeing this year in Start contrast so July 08 through July 2009 giant decrease of 19.6% quite a bit different compared to The 6.5% increase this year also home Prices have surged by 33% over the past 4 years it's actually Worse compared to 5 years ago though up By 46% from July 2019 all right hope you Guys appreciate that original analysis From Nerdy Jason Walter here so hope you
Guys got a lot of value of that um that Segment there that that kind of part Takes me quite a bit of time to do but Hope you guys appreciate that I not Appreciate you guys get value out of it If you guys don't get value out of it Then there's no point in doing it right Anyways let's talk about the sale price To final list price ratio that's been Paid at around 100% for about a year now Um that was at 100% last month but also Unchanged compared to one year ago so on Average house is selling for the sellers Final list price however though the Share of houses selling above the Sellers asking price fell to a 5mon low So 43.6% of all home sales for single Family house That occurred this July sold above the Sell's final list price one year ago at This time we're at 50% um also at 44% Right now this is much lower compared to The peak that was set back in April of 2022 back then a whopping 73% of all home sales sold above asking Back then absolutely crazy compared to The 44% we're seeing right now let's Also talk talk about the relationship Between rates and housing payments as Well so according to Carr or the California associate Realtors uh Mortgage rates remain elevated and so is The cost of borrowing so this is pretty
Um unusual Not Unusual this is a kind of A new trend compared to especially what We saw back in 2022 which is right here this is the Average 30-year fix rate I believe this Is um monthly rates according to Freddy Mack so back in let's just say j anuary Of 2022 the average rate was around 3.4% and by this time we hit what the Fall months that year it increased to About 7% shiny increas in rates that Year which of course you know froze the Housing market this year much different Compared to then so the average rate This July 6.85% July 2023 6.71% in other words not a big increase In rates compared to one year ago so Take a look at this the mortgage payment Growth this is the increase in your Payment looking at home prices and rates Increased by 6.7% and home prices increase by 6.5% so big picture the increase in your Housing payment up by 6.7% is really due to the fact that Prices have increased not due the fact That rates have increased as well Because again look at this your daily or Monthly rate has only increased by about What 10 basis points compared to one Year ago rates relatively flat year of Year but home prices have increased by 6.5% so we have this affordability issue
In California but also for the nation as A whole and this uh increase in your Housing payment is really due to the Fact that home prices have been Increasing um because rates have been Relatively flat um year-over Year all Right let's change here slightly here And talk about inventory levels in California so the month supply at 2.9 Months one year ago it was at 2.5 months So relatively low levels um especially Compared to the Great Recession look at This 0708 the month supply was around 16 Months absolutely insane now it's only At 2.9 months here's also look at Inventory levels in California uh we We're seeing an increase every single Month which is normal inventory tends to Peak in the summer months but what's Different this year compared to years's Past though look at 2022 inventory Basically skyrocketed it went from All-time record lows and it increased to Um you know very high clip once we hit Back in May and June that year last year Inventory increased slightly and we Actually saw a late peak of inventory That year this year inventory is Increasing at a much faster clip Compared to last year but not nearly as Fast as 2022 here's another way to look at this Even inventory increasing by
39.3% year-over aear and this marks the Highest rate since January of 20123 so we've now had six consecutive Months of year-year increases after 10 Consecutive months of decreases that's This right here so inventory up uh Compared to one year ago and that's uh Impacting home prices here in California here's what we're also seeing As well so new L increased by 19.5% year Year this means that what there's Approximately what 20% more new Supply Hit in the market in other words people Listing their house for sale up by 19.5% year-over-year this has been a Common Trend basically all year much Different compared to last year new Listings basically decrease every single Month that year so now we have um this July 2,259 new listings at this time in July By 2019 uh 29,257 so even though new listings are Up by about 19.5% year-over-year they're Still down by about 27% compared to July of 2019 so in other Words we have a long ways to go in order To have a more normal Market in other Words we have more normal amount of new Supply hitting the market let's also Have a look at the share of price Reductions because right now that's at 36.4%
So approximately onethird of all houses For sale in July have already reduced Our asking price that's a share at 36.4% it has been increasing you know a Small clip this year much different Compared to 2022 let me see if I can Zoom in here so back in January of 2022 The share price drops only around 20% And by the time we hit you know the fall Months that year it increased to 50% Absolutely insane more than doubling in Less than one year this year much Different we're at more relatively Normal levels right now uh and a small Increase U so far this year much Different compared to our 2022 where the Share price shops absolutely Skyrocketing which of course was due to The giant increase of inventory which Caused home prices to fall as well Lastly before I wrap this video up I Hope you guys are still watching today's Video because um every housing markets Different right I can talk about you Know regions States counties cities Neighborhoods It could be all different right but I Want to share how uh inventory is so Much different in California compared to Other states uh this is according to Alos research.com by the way regarding Inventory levels so for the nation as a Whole uh we have approximately 75,000 Homes for sale higher than last year
Higher than 2022 21 and 2020 but much Lower compared to 2019 at around 945 ,000 so inventory levels or the amount Of houses for sale is basically at a 4-year High during the same time frame On a national level look at Arizona Though in Arizona they're higher Compared to last year um not too much Higher compared to 2022 uh but actually approaching pre Pandemic era so right now around uh 20,000 homes for sale at this time in 2019 there's around 24,000 and Florida much different Inventory levels is higher right now Than any other week going back to at Least early September of 2019 so back then 76,000 homes for sale Right now at least for the week ended August 23rd 82,000 so a glut of inventory in Florida In Texas is actually worse look at this I mean by far by by by far more homes For sale any single every single week Going back to at least uh September of 2019 back then just under 96,000 homes For sale now there's a whopping 114,000 in California much different Right now 45,000 homes for sale less Than 2022 and far less than 2019 at 64,000 I'm only mentioning this because Every housing Market's different and on Top of that the markets that have more
Homes for sale um right now compared to Pre-co levels are areas in which home Prices are going down or are areas in Which home prices are barely squeaking On a gain in contrast areas in which um We have a lock of homes or sale from 2019 are experiencing gains in home Prices just like here in California and With that said please comment below your Biggest takeaways from today's video if You guys are still watching today's Video then here's a virtual high five I Appreciate it so much like And subscribe If you guys want a real estate agent Referral uh please email me at Jasonjason walter.com or check out my Website which is real estate TEF Finder.com have an amazing day thank you So much I appreciate you and we'll see You next video [Music] [Music]
