What are you worried about great to be Here by the way so thank you uh the Thing I worry the most about if you go It's Ukraine it's oil gas so the Leadership of the world and you know our Relationship with China I mean that that Is Much more serious than the economic Vibrations we all have to deal with on a Day-to-day basis on the Ukraine question That we talked about a lot obviously a Year ago very shortly after the war had Started do you think now a year in that The West has become sort of somewhat Annured to the idea of a conflict of This scale on its borders and if so does That worry yeah no it looks a little bit Like people are near to it but I think That's a little bit of mistake I read a Report the other day that when the war Goes to one year it lasts normally last 10 but this is a major land war in Europe and a free and Democratic Nation You know with hundreds of thousands of Casualties are ready on both sides and So I think we this we don't know how It's going to end we don't know what Direction it's going to take and and It's affecting Global relationships so Ukraine Russia then there's oil gas food Uh how it's hurting poor countries uh And it's roiling trade relationships Between America China and the rest of The world so this is a probably the most
Serious geopolitical thing we've had a Dealer since World War II would you Foresee a future where JP Morgan could Potentially re-enter the Russian Market As a business I mean a very premature to say you know I think if there was a one day maybe but It's very possible that won't happen in Our lifetime and you mentioned U.S China Relations obviously not at their best Right now a particularly post the Balloons Um I I wonder what role you see business Playing in trying to sort of moderate Those relations and and try and keep Them as as good as possible well you Know it's really the government the Government has to set the rules and Figure what they want to do I think it's A fair complaint about government and Business that we probably should have Started resetting this 10 years ago and We didn't I don't like the choir with Spilled milk and all that but going Forward the government and I think They're doing a good job thinking Through what is National Security so Think of semiconductors penicillin you Know certain drugs what's what is unfair Trade and then you know at one point sit There and have a very serious Conversation with Chinese government you Know remember secretary blinkum was on His way over there to do that and then
The balloon but at one point will do That and business is a peripheral player In that so I think I think business will Help give advice on how to do things if You're going to have an outbound Investment controls how you set the way That works that's not just a huge Bureaucracy and so so far the all the Conversation has been quite rational About it I mean Champion Morgan Obviously has a significant business in China I'm sure that the government there Would listen to you what are the Conversations you have just about sort Of trying to as I say trying to maintain As cordial relations as possible between The two Nations I mean you know for us We're there and and like I said you know We're we're basically taking a backseat To an American government in this one uh And we're gonna we obviously have to do Whatever the American government asks us To do and we're trying to engage and Encourage their own government and with The Chinese government and what those Things should be you know I'm hoping Cooler has prevailed here but that this Is why Ukraine is so important this can Cause it to go in a bad Direction rather Quickly so uh uh you know everybody's Got to be a little cautious We talk about our own government let's Talk about the FED for a moment Obviously I I just want to talk about
The FED for a moment I have half a dozen Present questions I could ask you about The FED I think I know the answer to Many of them so I'll try and avoid one Fairly easy one is you know when do we Get to say we're Landing be that hard Landing or a soft Landing sort of when Does that begin to occur you know Forecasting the Futures as you know very Complicated the consumer still has a lot More money in their checking accounts Than before covet they're spending 10 More than last year 40 more than Pre-covered and it looks like they'll Have excess money to spend roughly until The end of the year and at that point You know you could say there's a little Bit of a cliff as a soft landing and Also QT has North Star to bite that also Is going to happen at one point probably Later this year and you know that's when You're going to know what these things Do but you we can still have a soft Landing the other thing about all this Economic forecasting is Russia Ukraine I Mean that that can change it Dramatically and very very quickly Absent Rush Ukraine we will have a soft Landing I think it's still possible but I would I look at possibilities not Possible possible I go uh mild Recessions possible the harder Recessions possible I think is a good Chance that inflation will come down but
Not enough by the fourth quarter the FED May actually have to do more and I think A lot of things that happen in the world Think of the bigger Trends are Inflationary you know infrastructure Spending the IRA act uh lessening trade With you know certain parts of the world We bringing trade back into America Those things are all the green Transition is going to take a lot of Capital so all those things kind of have Inflation attributes that are very Different than we've been to the last 20 Years I'm going to come back to the Consumer point in a second but last year You talked about in your letter this Sort of Confluence of three major Factors QT the America rebounding from a Sort of post-covered economy fairly Strongly and then obviously the war as Well you talked about them sort of Leading us into an unprecedented period How do we get out of that period you Know it's it's diplomacy I mean that's Why this is not you know we always talk About uncertainty in the economy and the Insurance but I call it normal Uncertainty the weather is you know we Know what the weather's like that's why These things are different qt are coming Out of covid uh the war in Ukraine I Think it's been pushed out a little bit Further I would have thought we'd be Dealing with this a little bit sooner
But it does look like some of that stuff Is coming to fruition at the end of this Year Russia Ukraine we just simply don't Know I I think it's wrong to didn't Predict because if you look at the History of Wars they they've been pretty Much unpredictable and how they uh uh Play out and which ones affect the Global economy and how they do it took a Lot of Wars they didn't affect the Global economy but they were literally In very small parts of the economy this Is not in a small part of the economy And and this is a European nation uh It's Russia and it's oil and you know Major oil and gas supply and food supply Around the world so this is a whole Different an attribute to it but then Why does the consumer particularly here In the US remain as you say fairly Bullish They're for over a period of time their Home price been going up jobs are Plentiful ways are going up the lower End which I think is a good thing They've got a lot of money in their Checking account you know uh stocks have Generally been had gone up for 10 or 15 Years the consumers if you look at it Today in great shape but I'm telling you That's going to end at one point but Even if we go into recession then the Consumer is entering a recession in Better shape far better shape than they
Didn't know eight you know no way when We went to that recession not only did Unemployment go through the roof but Their home prices are dropping Dramatically jobs were disappearing the Stock market was way down so this one is A little bit better than that One of the sort of narratives that is Fairly popular at the moment is that the Consumer doesn't like uncertainty I Would even go as far as saying it's it's Sort of one of these false axioms that You know that people adopt now that you Know when his times are uncertain the Consumer freaks out they stop spending They stop doing the things that the Consumer needs to do to keep the economy Going that doesn't seem to be the case Here the consumer's done pretty well Through uncertainty through covert Through the war through everything else So I wonder when we get to this point of You know the wallet being hit and the Consumers saying we're going to stop Spending is it just reality catching up With them is there some kind of Infectious point or is it just that they Run out of money everything is destroyed By coven including quote uncertainty so You have you absolutely correct you know Confidence consumer covers is dropping But I think their pocketbook trumps Confidence they have a lot of money they Tend to spend it and like you see here
Like look at the travel in Miami and the Building and the optimism around if you Ask them how they're doing it's very Good and then they tell you oh they're Not calmed by the economy so jobs are Plentiful wages are going up I mean what That's what's really affecting them you Know when they wake up the morning they Feel pretty good about that and then They read the paper and of course you Can get a little depressed at the end of This year or towards the end of this Year that sort of begins to tell off it Looks like the excess cash will be Disappearing and then uh but the jobs Are still there so you could that's why I said you could have a soft Landing so Now Jeffrey Epstein See his Specter continues to haunt the Global Elite and most recently JP Morgan Have been sort of caught up in it how Has that made you feel You get to about litigation but you Should you should you should know the JP More we got top experts including some Of the best people to come out of the Doj ETC who review and make judgment Decisions like this and we're they Generally do a very good job How has it made you feel as the CEO of JP Morgan as a figurehead for the bank It's unfortunate but it's life And and look we're here in Florida we Have to talk about politics because we
Always talk about politics obviously We're into sentences backyard what do You make of his uh if you like Hands-On Approach to business and is that Something you would like to see more of In even higher office Yeah look I you know why I learn and listen and read and stuff Like that you know it has got a little Complicated between business and Government and stuff like that but but You know anyone here knows that I'm a Full-throated red-blooded American Patriot supporter-free Enterprise so you Know I hear the complaints on both sides And but you know you've listened and Learn from them I don't worry that much About it And we've been we've loved Florida we're Growing in Florida left and right you Know small businesses large companies we Got I've got how many total employees we Have here I'm on my way to Tampa we've Got you know major operations there Orlando major operations uh we're Opening branches and so uh the mayor Just joined us at a small business event We did here we're very pro pro Florida And this is long dated Florida this Isn't part of the sort of recent influx Of capital into Florida or financial Weld into Florida I think they've been Great I mean you know if you were Running the state you know you should be
Thinking how can I make this date off go Well off my people so Florida likes Business they want you to come you know You come to Florida you see the opt-in Texas is the same way you know if I was Some other states I mean think about why Do people like going to these Gates it's Their taxes is there a pro-business they Want better life for the people it's not Necessary some of the positive to talk About so um you know we now have more Employees in Texas than New York State You know it should have been that way But Texas loves to be there and when you Go there they're optimistic they're Optimistic here pro-american optimistic Pro business no unfortunately no I'm Every year there's a sort of tech topic To sure that we talked about last year As a metaverse and I think we talked Briefly about you appearing in a Non-physical form in the lobby of the Mets first this year it's uh it's AI uh I asked chat GPT what I should ask Jamie Diamond I was hoping you would come up With a really smart answer I wouldn't Need to write any of my questions I Could get it to do the whole interview For me uh so so it didn't unfortunately It asked what would I ask Jamie dimon uh About Ai and what it meant for the Future of investment banking so uh AI is Real this is not not crypto no it's not Crypto net this is a technology which is
Staggering we already lose 300 AI we Have thousands of people about thousands Involved data machine learning natural Language processing we have 200 people In AI research Labs but and we're Already using to do risk fraud marketing Prospecting and it's the tip of the Iceberg so you know to me this is this Is extraordinary and the other thing to Keep in mind there's good you use but Bad guys are going to use it too so it's A little bit of a arms race and how you Have to use it to protect your company And protect your clients protect that et Cetera and we're fully engaged and the Other thing you have to keep about AI You need to be in the cloud to use the Compute power fundamentally that you Need for AI and so that's why the cloud Digital AI they're all kind of related That way what was behind the decision to To ban chappy GPT on the on the trading Schools it On company owned devices that's where You can do it on your own device but we Also allow people use it within our own Uh firewalls so we didn't take it away It just you have to go within our Firewall to use it and it was just for Control purposes and risper there's no It wasn't a statement of any time before We end up I I want to get on to leverage Finance obviously that's in large part Why we're here to talk about the
Conference one of the things JP Morgan's Doing at the moment it's very Interesting is lending from its own Balance sheet and direct lending if you Like at the moment I think it's 10 Billion dollars is what's been allocated How big can that business get yeah so You know I mean it's amazing and this is When you look at something like this the Reviewers American capitalism there are 2 000 investors here from around the World hundreds of companies still Inventing ideas and growing and Expanding both the US and and overseas It is it is extraordinary so direct Lending you're obviously one of the Biggest lenders out there but a lot of People here are also huge lenders so you Know I meet with them all and you know Direct lending away from Banks become Equally inside you have to think of Themselves as competitive and they are You know that's a lot but we deal with Competitors and collaborators all the Time so we do direct lending and all That is fundamentally for your viewers You know unitron's quicker more Flexibility and certain types of Covenants not necessarily cheaper for The borrower by the way so you got to Look at all things so we've done I think 10 billion 40 deals we can do a lot more And you know we can work with Partners In some of these deals Etc but we'll do
What we need to do to compete it's Phil Somewhat Passaic to ask you about Succession you get asked about it all The time I'm not going to do that but But I am interested you talk a lot about The need for sort of unified responses To global conflict you talk a lot about Things that are needed domestically Whether it's better health better Education raising wage inequality or Reducing I should say wage inequality it Seems very obvious that you could go Into public office if you chose to when You leave JP Morgan is that something we Can expect I'm not going to go to public Service I love what I do here you know You mentioned succession enjoy it I I access it a little bit before you go Into it and I I feel like a huge Contribution to my country my clients Around the world Etc so uh and the other Thing about succession you got you guys Already know who that we have a lot of Potential successors so you can write About it frequently exactly so you know I couldn't answer that you already know
