We're still looking at an estimated four And a half to five million homes that we Are short across this Country welcome back to real estate Mindset we are definitely not I repeat We are definitely not four to five Million homes short in the housing Market in fact you guys I'm going to go On record to say this again we're only About 200 to 300 unit short in the Housing market and so what I'm going to Do today is I'm going to show you guys Areas where inventory right now is Absolutely exploding on a state level we Have two of the 50 states right now that Have more inventory than they did pre- Pandemic and it's almost universally Agreed upon that when we have enough Inventory prices will go down in the Housing market because of the lack of Sustainability and how toxic it's been Over the last three years and so despite What the Bulls would prefer that Everyone keeps purchasing it's very Important that from time to time we Understand we need to adapt I'm going to Start you guys by going into some Fred Economic data starting with Florida Housing inventory active unit count so This is the state of Florida again now If you're lucky enough to be in Florida Or Texas I'm going to tell you guys Right now we're going to be the first States that show the largest price
Declines the reason that is is because We now have more inventory than we did Pre pandemic it's absolutely astonishing So right right now as far as Florida We're sitting at 131,000 active units this doesn't even Count new homes when we add new homes Here it's way more you guys but right Now here's where we're sitting okay so We're sitting right here now right Before we entered the lockdowns and the Recession here's where we were at so Again we have more inventory now than Lockdowns now I also highlighted right Here you guys so this is March of 2019 So we almost have as much inventory as March 2019 which is considered a Balanced year now that's not all so it's Not only here in just Florida the same Thing has also happened in Texas and I'm Going to show you guys so many cool Things so right now in Texas we have About 90,000 active units sitting at Right here you guys now again this is Where we were right before lockdowns Okay so we do have more inventory also In Texas and I'm also going to show you Guys how we don't even need as much Inventory that we had pre pandemic Because the mark Market the economy and The consumer were way different in 2019 So I'll show you guys that here in a Second but again going back to March Right here this is March 2019 so about
Five years ago five years ago we had 93,7 71 you guys we're only 4,000 Roughly 4,000 units off of normal Inventory in Texas is this not an Absolutely wonderful thing do me a favor Again you guys comment below let me know If you think this is absolutely Wonderful we made it you guys 2025 is Going to be an awesome year now when I Say the consumer was completely Different understand that in March of 2019 the interest rates guys okay and You can see that right here this is the 30-year fixed rates right here the Interest rates were 4.06 right now interest rates are in the Seven so again back then we had interest Rates at 4% okay right now we have Interest rates at 7% so demand is way More crushed right now than it was in 2019 primary result is the interest Rates so again 4.06 compared to 7% in Fact it's actually over 7% right now and Not only that you guys when we look at Real median household income which is Income that is adjusted for inflation Look at 2019 look at that income was soaring in 201 19 consumers were making more money Adjusted for inflation than they were in 2020 2021 and you guys in 2022 real Income has gone down for two to three Years people listen to what I'm saying This is insane in
2019 okay almost five years ago four to Five years ago people were making more Money adjusted for inflation now granted Obviously you guys we don't have updated Information this is lagging this is only To 2022 so we don't have all the data But regardless you guys see my point the Consumer was different they were making More money and it was much cheaper to Purchase a house and not only that the Savings rate you guys this just updated About three days ago the savings rate Plummeted once again to 3.2% and I Wanted to point out that again March of 2019 the savings rate was 7.9% y The savings rate was double so again Income was higher savings rate was Double interest rates were half of what They are now not to mention delinquency Okay guys this is delinquency rate on Consumer loans all commercial Banks now We're higher once again than we are pre- Pandemic isn't that crazy to you so Americans are behind on their bills like They haven't been in 10 years you guys Actually it's been longer than 10 years Right now we're sitting at 2.62% right before before lockdowns we Were at 2.32% so we're higher than when we were But what I want to point out is the Trajectory the trajectory is telling us That America is suffering right now
Buying demand is crippled because people Can't even afford to live and if you Look essentially at the two decades Prior it stayed basically the same so From 2014 to 2019 you guys was essentially the same Slight downward here slight upward and Then balance it didn't have this massive Sky skyrocketing upward trajectory like We have right now so in other words what I'm trying to do is paint the picture Like hey we don't need anywhere close to 45 million units because the consumer And the demand is much different than it Was in 2019 but I will admit that we do Need inventory for prices to continue to Go down now speaking of prices I hear This all the time people are like Travis When are values in hous is going to drop And the first thing I think of is every Sing time I hear that guys is do you Understand how value works are you Understanding the difference between Existing and new homes do you understand Subdivision analysis do you understand How to find a great deal if you don't Understand those things then I can't Possibly answer the question of when Prices will go down because some people Will only realize that when a it's Already too late or B when it's already In mainstream media headlines and so That's why this entire time and I've Been talking about this for two years
I've been trying to train my viewers how To find a great deal and I've been doing That for free so let's go to the Florida State housing market median sales price On redf fin you guys see right now even Though we have this massive increase of Inventory in Florida not enough time has Passed to drop prices but that's going To change and I can guarantee you that At least in my opinion I can guarantee You it's my opinion right but right now Median sales price is sitting at 45,3 I wanted to note that Florida as a State this is macro data remember Micro Data subdivision if there is Subdivisions but it peaked in June of 2022 and it peaked at $410,000 300 which Means in about a year and a half you Made an equity $5,000 but unfortunately It cost $30,000 to sell your house in Florida on average when we look at Closing costs plus realtor fees so again $5,000 so if you didn't rush in with you Know based on your emotions and fear of Missing out in Florida congratulations Because now you have triple the Inventory options congratulations Florida isn't that amazing but again we Haven't yet seen that year-over-year Decline but I will be definitely keeping My eyes on that however in Texas we have Had clear decline from Peak so right now Texas is saying again let me show you Guys this is Texas housing market
Overview and this is from Redfin it is Saying that right now median sales price For Texas is 344,000 and that is up 1 7% Year-over-year now Texas as you can see Here peaked in May of 2022 you can see On the bottom right that that Peak was 371,000 you guys Texas as a state on Average is down from Peak $27,400 or 7.3% so if you're in Texas Congratulations because again we have Doubled to Triple the inventory options And homes are about 7% lower on price And this is not even counting new Construction now I have a bet going with Melody right right now that Texas is Going to be in worse shape than Florida One of the primary reasons I think that As well well first of all both states Have massive new construction I've been Saying this and I've been pretty much Right from the beginning that the Housing market crash is starting with New homes and we see that in value we See that in value and I also called the Fact that interest rates are going to Stay elevated until we have an economic Crisis those are all easy things in fact The only thing that I got wrong to be Honest is the recession I mean what else Have I got wrong everything follows the Recession and so since that hasn't Started it keeps pushing it down the
Path now a lot of people a lot of people Have given up hope and I want to say if You're not in Texas if you're not in Florida don't stress the story is still Being told the pendulum is swinging the Other way there's just been too much Toxicity too much greed fraud corruption Federal Reserve manipulating the house And market for things to sustain I Believe price Discovery will happen in Every single state but again I keep Going back to the fact it's all about Subdivision but regardless let's look on A national level and see where we're at With housing inventory as compared to Pre pandemic all right this is an Article from Fast company called housing Market inventory is rising across most Of the country just look at these Maps You guys remember me saying we need elev Ated interest rates in 2024 spring and Summer home buying season if we were to Get inventory okay so thank God that's Exactly what's happened so far which Again I thought and I called and I Predicted now I'm just going to scroll Right down to this map I'm starting to Become a little bit more of a fan of Lance Lambert to be honest with you I'm Actually just liking his data sets now Here's the one-year change in active Housing inventory okay so this is a Shift between March of 2023 and March of 2024 wait till I show you guys the next
Map the next map is insane but I wanted To show you the states with the most Rapid inventory growth and it's Surprisingly not Texas Texas isn't even Number two but number one is Florida Florida sit down seriously you guys sit Down for this and understand also it Takes a little bit of time for prices to Go down we need inventory though so the Fact that Florida year-over-year has a 57% increase of inventory without a Recession starting is shocking what we See happening there you guys is massive Hikes in insurance for homes and massive Increases in property taxes I'm talking Like ungodly amounts you can't even Comprehend because it's that bad so 57% increase now the Carolina's also Doing good 32% increase in South Carolina 30% increase in North Carolina I'd be watching those as well now take a Look here guys Alabama 33% which is Texas at only 30% which really Surprising and this kind of blew me away Look at we're losing inventory in Nevada How's that possible I'm gonna be the First person to say that Las Vegas has Blown my mind there has been so much Consistent demand in Las Vegas it it's Just shocking like why why are you still Buying in Las Vegas if you bought in Las Vegas recently please comment below and Tell me why why do you keep buying in Las Vegas why do you want to live in Sin
City it is what it is but that's one State huge loss of inventory also look At this Illinois is also down 5% New York sadly is down 4.3% as well so this All tells us we have to be very careful At what we're listening to what we Expect in our housing market because Again on one hand Nevada is down 26% but Florida is up 57% and so this is Really showing us how this housing Market really is a t of Tails now Boise I'm really surprised I'm sorry not Boise But Idaho is only up 1% all right now This map is honestly again I got to give Credit to Lance on this one you know I Really do I love this map okay so this Map and this is probably one of the most Important maps to be honest with you This is active housing units for sale Compared to pre-pandemic levels so this Is comparing March of right now compared To March of 2019 and again Melody right I'm beating you so far look at guys Texas as a state is off 4% from Spring Home buying season preco preco spring Home buying season we're only down 4 Per. y'all hear me we are only down 4% In Te Texas is gonna have price Discovery you guys we got to make it to 2015 let's get out of this presidential Election let's start the recession and Sit tight if you're in Texas because You're going to get a great deal now Look at number two look at how close
Florida is Florida's at 13.8 that's March spring home buying season you guys Of 2019 they're only down now 14% the Bulls are losing the narrative we have Never been stuck in a vacuum so all of The demeaning comments that we got about Supply and demand and the laws and how Easy it is to understand none of those People understood that things change They wanted that to last like that Forever as if we weren't in quantitative Tightening shocking only 14% but look at This as well Idaho even though it had Only that 1% year-over-year growth it's Still off only 16% so Idaho is very very Close so what we have again is we have Texas Florida Idaho and then after that Nebraska Nebraska is incredibly close And for Trey Trey good news brother good Look at this Tennessee is number five Two three four yeah Tennessee is number Five it's only down 19.8% so if you're In our disc scord you know Trey Trey set It up tre's a great person he's the guy That I've been watching to make sure He's set safe out there he's a home Buyer he's in Tennessee good things to Come brother maybe another year maybe Two years but the thing is the data is Shifting either way he's looking for a Great deal when he finds it he's going To purchase it now here's where Melody May have me the trajectory the Trajectory of inventory growth in
Florida is I mean I I'm like speechless Like I'm fumbling over myself because I Honestly I don't know how I don't know How Florida has increased like so Quickly for inventory so here here's the One-year change in active housing Inventory for sale this is March 2023 to March of 2024 now you see the darker patterns is A loss so there is a couple places that Have lost inventory you guys can see That and quite a bit of inventory but Most of the places have got massive Growth I'm talking massive growth and This area right here you guys this area Right here that I'm circling keeps Getting hit by hurricanes so because This area keeps getting hit by Hurricanes it's more expensive to be a Homeowner there so homeowners insurance Right homeowners insurance may have gone Up two to 300% here but look at Fort Meers you guys and and pun Gora pun Gora Is Up 144% now even in the Panhandle you Have places like Milton up 120% that's Around Pensacola and then you have Holt Up 300% I mean Florida is exploding look It down here you guys here's near Miami Uh ZIP code 33037 that's up 171 Per just really really remarkable how Quickly things change now here's what it Looks like compared to pre pandemic so You can see that Florida is still split
Some areas have exponential growth and Are near and above pre pandemic and some Are not so it is very very divided and I Hope by you guys looking at this map You're really really starting to Understand what I'm saying about how if You do want to get Micro Data you got to Go subdivision and again unless the home Is not in a subdivision so we talked About Texas and we talked about Florida But what about the other states what About places like Nevada well I have Good news what's happening right now With inventory explosions is actually Compounding especially if you're in an Area such as Henderson or Las Vegas Nevada that has bans on airbnbs and Short-term rentals well that's going to Help add to inventory obviously that Takes time to flesh out of the system Now in addition to that also remember It's like a triple whammy because the Golden handcuff effect it's real you Guys there's 1 two three million even People on the sidelines that want to Sell their house and not all of those People will repurchase before things Were so unaffordable the the net was 30% So 30% inventory growth from people that Sell their house because again most People will purchase but I'm telling you Guys right now a lot of it is going to Be speculation sales that's what we see In Florida there's so much speculation
In Florida that's what you see there and Remember this last thinging and I'll let You go one of the biggest challenges one Of the biggest problems during the GFC Wasn't necessarily subprime mortgages People are always subprime mortgages Subprime mortgages it wasn't good I know That I was a loan officer during that Time I know all of the loans but the Bigger issue was speculation and the Fact that investors started liquidating Their Assets in bunches now other than That guys I really hope you're Considering what I'm saying obviously I've made you a free home buying course I've I've poured 20 years of my soul Into that course to help you get Prepared as we're waiting on the Sidelines I mean it's literally never Been a better time to rent a house and I Also believe we are in store for one of The best buying opportunities especially In States like Texas and in Florida and If you guys can do me a favor comment Below let me know if this brought Anything out of you let us know your Intel what is going on in your Subdivision what is going on in your Area please let us know the Intel is so Valuable in our community we helping Each other out now other than that guys If you're out there investing in real Estate you guys already know I wish you Luck and I hope you win
