Welcome back to real estate mindset Today's video is going to be absolutely Bonkers now the data is in and we're Going to go over zillow's August housing Market update and you guys 37 of the top 50 Metro areas right now have home price Decline now in addition to that we're Going to go over leading indicators and Other data like price Cuts days on Market prices and inventory and towards The end of this video I'm going to show You guys how to use Zillow to find com Now in conjunction with finding comps And my subdivision analysis form you Guys should be able to calculate things Like wedge and cash flow and I'm also Going to show you guys how to use Zillow To find at least a handful of Foreclosures in your own local housing Market but where I want to start is by Talking about the 80% of sellers that Are motivated or forced sellers like I Did on my last Zillow housing market Video I was able to track down the Survey to look underneath the hood and This is what I found about the 80 8% of Sellers that are motivated to sell 80% are selling because life events Largely motivated homeowners to sell now The interesting thing about this is this Survey is all the way back from October Of 2023 so zillow's referencing a survey That's old but regardless when I go down Here it's very confusing because they
Don't break this down it's extremely Cryptic and they categorize bad and good Things together the first thing is a Change in household or family size now I Don't know if that's death or more Babies or what but if we cut that in Half and say half of it is death that Would mean that 21.6% of all sellers not just of the 80% 21.6% of all sellers would be selling Because of death now it's also Interesting if we go down three more Rows to retired that's people more than Likely making less income now whether They're in distress or not I don't know But 35% of 80% means that the total Amount of sellers that are selling Because they're retired is 21.6% literally 21.6% of sellers right Now all sellers are selling because They're retired that's amazing to me now Right underneath that is got married Divorc or separated it's extremely hard For us to know who's married divorced or Separated but if we cut it in half and Say half of them got divorced and half Of people got married that would mean That 14% of total sellers are selling Because they got divorced that's messed Up let's keep going you guys underneath That you see working remotely less often Is at 34% and job loss or other Involuntary unemployment is 31% working Remotely less often means they're making
Less money and under that also making Less money now the total amount and I Put that on the upper right here the Total amount of sellers that are selling As a direct result not counting retired People but as a direct result of Problems in the labor market that I can Pinpoint it's probably a lot more is Very hard with the survey but the total Guys is 27.2% of all Nationwide sellers that are Selling because a loss or drop in income And the thing is I want you guys to Think about that's from 2023 2024 our Labor market is in a much worse Situation I suspect this category of Sellers is skyrocketing regardless let's Dig into the data the name of this Month's Zillow housing market report is Rates Dr and more inventory mean Opportunities for buyers August 2024 Market report and I highlighted Underneath opportunities for buyers Because remember they cannot help Themselves the same thing with Realtors And if you're a realtor and if you're Watching if you really want to help Again for 5 years I've trained Realtors I've probably trained a thousand Realtors if you're a realtor you're Watching take my courses that I offer For free and start teaching your Community how to use comps to not only Fight the Central Appraisal districts
But also my home buying cores I'm also Loan officer and I guarantee you even if You're a realtor of 20 years you take my Home buying course you're going to learn Something nevertheless let's jump in Zillow's first paragraph of opinions Before again we jump into the data Mortgage rate drops equate to Serious Savings mortgage rate declines have made Buying a home affordable again at the National level meaning monthly payments Generally take less than onethird of Median household income and here's the Thing that they're assuming and you know What they say about assumptions assuming A buyer puts 20% down and I don't know Why they do this because this is Basically removing reality from these Numbers this is before taxes and Insurance maintenance and HOA which Essentially almost every single person Pays for but nevertheless this goes on Nationwide the monthly payment on a Typical home purchase has fallen by more Than $100 cool since the peak of May the Drop is more than $300 a month in the Ultra expensive San Francisco area now Under this this says lower rates also Make it easier for buyers to qualify for A mortgage that's called debt to income Ratio so if rates go down 1% that is Essentially 10% more purchasing power This goes on more of the inventory Listed in a given area functionally
Increasing the choices available to them Congratulations if you've been waiting On the sidelines it's still a very toxic Housing market the real car AG hasn't Even started yet next paragraph added Interest could extend summertime Competition and let's just start with The second paragraph spring is normally The prime time to list because sellers Often want to make sure they are in Their new home before the school year And fall holidays start most homeowners Again 80% are influenced to sell by life Events and we just went over that now Bottom paragraph some signals are Already pointing to an altered Trajectory in the housing market now What they're saying is because interest Rates are going down buyers are going to Start coming back the thing is the Opposite has happened so far interest Rates have gone down roughly 1% and Demand and prices have also gone down Interesting the share of listings on Zillow with price Cuts tick down from July to August but it's still up Year-over-year revising an upward Trend And Rising every month since March just Under 26% of homes on the market had a Price cut in August that's relatively High for this time of year but it's not A record as seen in recent months let's Keep going home values I know you guys Love this now remember I put a note up
There hyper local subdivision review Look at comps comps are sold property Generally you need three now in my Market I have big and small houses I Look for comps within a variance of 500 Ft and I'll go over some other details At the end of this video but let's take A look at home values now home values Climbed month over a month in only nine Of the 50 largest metro areas in August Gains were the biggest in Buffalo at 7 New York at6 Providence at 04 hartford. 3 and philadelphia. 3 as well the east Coast is an overheated housing market Absolutely overheated housing market Bullet point number two home values fell On a monthly basis in a whopping 37 major Metro areas the largest drops Were actually in California San Francisco leading the way at down month Over month 1.3% San Jose down 1.1% again Month over month to California metros And then we have the usual suspect Austin down 1% month over Monon Denver Down 7% month over Monon and New Orleans Down 6% month over month when we take a Look at home values year-over-year Year-over-year they're up in 44 of the Largest 50 Metro areas top metro area San Jose so it's interesting it's the Number two metro area of monthly decline But the number one metro area with Yearly price appreciation something's Not right number two Hartford At 8%
Providence at 7.1 New York at 7 and San Diego at 6.2 now home values are down From a year ago in five major Metro Areas New Orleans down 4.6% year-over-year Austin down 4.6% Year over year it's important to know That that is not from Peak Austin is Down from Peak 6 Literally over 100,000 from Peak it is Rough out in Austin San Antonio actually Is number three at -2.9 year-over-year Birmingham and I told you guys I went Boots on the ground with Melody right to Birmingham I told you guys Birmingham is Going down and guess what it is down .9% Year-over-year followed by Dallas at 4% Year-over-year so interesting to note we Have three Texas Metro areas on the Year-over-year price decline list I Believe that's a direct result of Massive new construction clusters we Literally have clusters of new Construction going up all over Texas and Guess what they're overvalued as well The last bullet point the typical Mortgage payment is down 2.9% from last Year and demand is also down by the way But it has increased and I want you guys To remember that 103.8 per since pre Pandemic the reason I want you guys to Remember that is a lot of people are Going to try to convince you that Payment is more important than price and If that's the case then let me just give
You an interest only loan that you have To pay forever and I'll give you a Payment of $2,000 but you have to pay me Forever and your loan's never paid off Do you guys see my point your price is Important because that's when your loan Ends for good so keep your eyes on price Y'all let's keep going inventory and new Listings so starting with new listings That did decrease 1.1% month over month New listings did increase however 8% Year-over-year so that's my point it's Still going up at a faster trajectory Than last year there was 22.1% more Listings year-over-year so Year-over-year we're doing great however Since pre- pandemic we're 30.8% away From pre- pandemic so we're getting Extremely close not quite there keep Your eyes on the trajectory of inventory Very very important details now price Cuts are also exploding even though they Said they're slowing down they are a Little bit I guess but it's 25.9% of Listings in August had a price cut Compared to 26.2 the prior month but it Is up year-over-year from 23.4% now 33.4% of homes sold above their list Price last month compared to a 35.4% in June and year-over-year 39.1% so the market is definitely Slowing down no matter how you look at It but it is hyper local so some markets For sure for sure some markets and I
Know this cuz I look at the data and I Hear people and I research some markets Are still super tight for sure Now newly pending sales okay again with Lower interest rates so we have lower Interest rates where's the flood of Buyers there never was a flood of buyers The only thing that there's going to be A flood of is sellers newly pending Listings decreased by 5% in August from The month prior in addition to that Newly pending listings decreased by 2.9% year-over-year with lower rates so So far not a big impact with lower Interest rates demand still seems to be Low however we still need to pay Attention to a leading indicator which Is total listings and new listings and That trajectory is not good we want the Trajectory to go up so keep your eyes on That it's going to be interesting to see That bad boy eventually guys eventually Erupt let's jump into rents a little bit Because a lot of people including myself Have been hoping for rent relief now I Have had rent relief I've negotiated my Rent I always get it down and in Addition to that what I would suggest to Some people is is you help your landlord Fight the property tax assessment I Would say hey if I could save you a few Hundred on your property tax assessment Will you help me on my rent I mean why Not you would help everyone but
Regardless you guys here's the rent data Asking rents unfortunately increased 2% Month over Monon in August the Pre-pandemic average was .4% who cares It's still super high rents Unfortunately y'all are up 3.4% Year-over-year however rents did fall on A monthly basis in only two Metro areas Austin at 4% which is virtually nothing And Boston at0 4% and the sad thing is Rents are up from a year ago levels in 49 of the 50 largest metro areas the top Metro area is up year-over-year 7.7% but I also want you guys to Understand that this data is manipulated And not counting incentives like the Free first and last month's rent so the Reality is a lot of rent is going down But it is not reflected in this data Because they don't count incentives like They should let's visualize some of this Data starting with the top Metro areas With days on the market take a look you Guys Austin got cut off here but it is 58 days on the market in Austin anytime You're over 30 days that's a leading Indicator for price decline number two Is Jacksonville Florida at 49 days on The market there's going to be Additional price decline in Jacksonville But the one I'm paying attention to Y'all is number number three Miami we're All waiting for price decline to Accelerate in Miami but the days on
Market average is 45 days number four Another Texas metro area San Antonio at 42 days matched by a panhandle Metro Which is New Orleans at 42 days another Florida metro area with Tampa Florida Sitting at 37 Days on Market when we Visualize home value take a look at what I found you guys essentially this is the First month that we have decline so Congratulations we have Nation wide Right n you can see on the right there We have nationwide home price decline First time in 2024 this trajectory needs To continue so keep your eyes on that it Is vital that we make it past spring 2025 home buying season if the housing Market's going to crash and things are Going to get back to normal somewhat We're going to find out big part of that Story February and March of 2025 because That's when the seasonality comes back Visualizing price Cuts take a look here Guys now I put those arrows down there Because the insurance is absolutely Skyrocketing there those are the Panhandle areas and also the areas in The Carolinas that get hit heavy by Weather so the price cuts are Accelerating right there also very Interesting you can see in Arizona Colorado Idaho as well and a bunch of Places in California kind of blowing up East Coast not quite there yet it is Overheated but east coast man when the
East Coast Falls it's going to fall hard The bigger they are the Harder They Fall We're not seeing the decline in the rent Data but looking at the rent index you See that giant Spike right there I Wanted to remind everyone that the giant Spike right there in rent happened when Income did not go up income did not go Up during that time horrible horrible Situation but since over the last year It is basically Flatline we need Deflation which it is but it is not Reporting in this data why remember Incentives I want to quickly show you How to use Zillow to find comp which are Sold homes now it doesn't work in every State if you're in a non-disclosure State like Texas this is not going to Work but it is a generally good way if You're up late at night and you want to Just do basic math just add all of the Comps together and add all of the sizes And then divide those numbers by the Amount of comps that you're using but Let me show you guys how to set up Zillow so you guys will come to a home Screen like this you can see on the Upper left I just typed in Florida and Those three circles represent the drop- Down menu so the first drop- down menu I Had to select sold the second drop down Menu I where it says home type I Selected only single family homes where It says more right there I selected
Homes that sold in the last three years Now I also put an arrow where it says Remove to draw you have to remove that Boundary in order to draw or radius to Select the subdivision because if you Look to the right there's a million Comps look at that there are a million Comps over the last 3 years in Florida So you see what I mean you guys should Be able to do some math to calculate Some wedge and cash flow now to the Right of that there's another area Because I sort this by newest because Remember you want to look at 2023 2022 You want to categorize the year of the Subdivision analysis you're doing but Regardless that's way too much data so We have to condense that the way you Condense that first is is you remove the Boundary and once you remove that Boundary you see that draw tool come up Right there okay so the draw tool comes Up I zoomed into Tampa because I have a Subdivision I want to review in Tampa But unfortunately you guys there's 7,400 Comps so there's way too many comps so I Got to select that draw tool right there And I got to draw a radius around the Subdivision that I want to track that's Going to look something like this and You guys can see I go from 7,400 comps To 21 that's it and you see how I sorted It from the newest so the what again What I'm going to do is say I have 10
Comps in 2022 I have 10 comps in 2022 I'm going to Total all of the sales Prices and I'm total all of the square Footage and then I'm going to divide by 10 and that's going to give me my Average price per square foot if you Guys want to know again how that works Go to my description there's a Subdivision analysis form in there but The way I do that the way I'm looking at The average values as I go year to date And in my market I completely skip 2023 I don't even look at 2023 in my market Here in Harris because we've been going Down in value since 2022 so I ski 2023 I'm doing analysis on 202 22 2021 and 2020 and as a buyer myself I want to Find properties at 2020 and 209 values On a home that I don't have to settle on And that I love now in addition to using Zillow for comps you can also use Zillow To find foreclosures potentially in your Market let me show you how I typed in Austin you can see that and really all You got to do is go all the way to the Right and you click more and then you Hit show more and then you s cect Foreclosure auctions foreclosed Pre-foreclosed and then all you have to Do after that y'all is hit apply after You hit apply you'll notice in Austin There are 21 foreclosures starting out At 363,000 so again I just wanted to give
You guys a little bit of ammunition but Again remember the multiple listing Service is generally almost like 99.9% Of the time the best way to determine What's really happening in your local Housing market now other than that you Guys do me a favor let me know what Value you got from this video comment Share it and if you're out there Investing in realistic you guys already Know I wish you luck and I hope you win
