[Music] No sidewalk um the sidewalks public but The property is not it's private and we Can't have yall thank you we're right Here on the sidewalk thank you I still Can't have y'all record there so it's a Public sidewalk right yes but the Building itself is public and I can't Have anybody record [Music] [Music] American homes for rent one of our Institutional investors who did purchase Of many single family homes as well as Build them is selling this [Music] Property welcome back to real estate Mindset today's video is going to be Absolutely Bonkers and today we're doing A Metro report video eyes from the sky Boots on the ground in San Antonio Texas And today you guys we're going to do a Extravaganza we're not just going to Cover new construction we're going to Cover existing we're going to cover Commercial real estate the job market Demographics we're going to cover Everything so that you have a full Understanding of not only what's going On in San Antonio but also what's going On with other real estate markets around The nation I brought my entire Production Studio through downtown San Antonio so that you guys could see the
Alamo and not only that guys I also have Melody WR with us hello everybody and Thank you for joining us here in San Antonio Texas I'm so excited to be Co-hosting and on this trip with Travis We're really going to be changing it up And showing you the city in great detail We're going to tour new home sites Multif family long-term rental we're Really going to give you that boots on The ground eyes from the sky perspective Rent today and get one month of free Rent I'm standing outside right now at The Villas this is one of many apartment Complexes that we're showing you guys And this right here you guys a loan Probably accounts for about 5% of total Inventory and it's not even on the Market yet so another bill to rent Community this is not Apartments this is More tow houses I mean this stuff you Guys is all over the place back to you Melody here we are at the San Antonio Food bank this is a very large Food Bank Where they serve over a 100,000 people Each week to date they've served 92 Million pounds of food and guys this is What we've heard all over the country That we're seeing increase folks coming To these food banks up to where it was Back during the pandemic so the other Thing to note about this very Interesting is Travis and I tried to fly The Zone over this location it was
Restricted we don't see an airport Around uh it was restricted in a way That Travis has never experienced so What it seems like to me guys is that They don't want people filming how many People are lining up here each week was Just similar to The Way That You Don't See these stories in news in the National news we're not hearing about Everyone out there that is struggling That has to come out here every week to Get food because they can't afford their Groceries because of inflation existing Homes now according to redin again San Antonio is the only metro area with a Year-over-year price decline sitting at Negative 1.9% year-over-year however Guys remember it peaked in May of 2022 at 295,000 so right now homes on Average existing homes are down $30,000 Now don't forget guys obviously we're Talking about macro data you got to go Hyperlocal you got to go into the Subdivisions now some of the things that Melody and I discovered when we were Touring the existing Home Market number One was foreclosures and speaking of Foreclosures we have 658 here in the San Antonio area we're standing actually at The back end of one of those properties Um and something else we'd like to Mention is you can see behind me there Is a a vacant dwelling we see so much of This on the road that you have all these
Abandoned buildings that need to be Addressed um right next to newb build Communities there is so much Oversaturation of building here and yet At the same time you have so much vacant And abandoned properties I would hope What happen is that you would address Those existing properties before you go As crazy as what we've seen here in San Antonio now moving on guys we were also Able to find several foso or for sale by Owners now the total amount of fobos is Shocking 700 for sale by owners you guys that's Insane because the total amount of Listings on aals roughly is 9,000 so we Have roughly 8% additional inventory That's not even being reported on MLS Guys there's a lot going on right now With existing homes remember when we Have one bad comp in a subdivision it Can bring the entire neighborhood's Value down now let me show you what Melody has Found guys uh this is our story we're Standing in front of our story this home Was built in 2006 currently owned by Americans home for rent uh they were Trying to rent it uh listed in 2021 for About $18.95 now in 2023 it went up to like 2350 um but they got a big tax bill 30% Over 30% increase in taxes and now They're listing it for sale originally
Listed earlier in the summer at 445,000 Last year it is now at 3 69,000 and so Obviously American homes for rent one of Our institutional investors who did Purchase up many single family homes as Well as build them is selling this Property this is a nice neighborhood but Clearly uh the carrying cost the Property taxes have just made it not a Good idea to hold on to this home but They're also having issues selling it Right across the street there's also Another home listed for sale and then as Travis and I were coming in here we saw All the signs uh we haven't even gone to The new build residence uh new build Sites yet uh we're going to head over There to some of those but we're seeing Them all over the place as well as new Multif family how crazy is it that an Institutional Investor can't even sell Their house when they're price cutting At around 20% either way we're going to Move on to the job market let's talk About jobs everybody wanted to talk About jobs last week with that blowout Jobs report but as Travis and I have Been telling you we've lost 1.8 million Full-time jobs in the last 4 months Although we've added part-time jobs and Government jobs we're losing those jobs That can sustain middle inome lifestyle But in San Antonio specifically Unemployment Rose January to February by
4.1% it was quite an uptick as you guys Know the national average is more around 3.7% also looks like here that they have Lost year-over-year some information Techn techology jobs and where they've Gained is in the government sector and In travel and Hospitality but we're here On a Sunday down at the Alamo downtown San Antonio and I got to tell you There's not a ton of crowds new Construction that may be the biggest Impact on what's going on with San Antonio now I'll throw up some overlays I'm using New Home Source now obviously This data is under reported now you can See that there are several thousand 7 to 9,000 new homes at a time as reported on The map as you guys can see that here But on top of that guys let me throw This overlay up so you can see there are Over almost actually 500 brand new home communities you guys This is absolutely crazy now when we Toured this area Melly and I were able To find multiple home builders guys that Were doing real price Cuts anywhere from 50,000 60,000 70,000 either way you guys Everything's going to be linked in this Video so you can click the link you can Search for yourself and find out this Information now on top of the hypers Supply under understand that new homes On average are down 19.3% the total amount of inventory
Right now for new homes is over 8 months Of inventory and you guys again that is Not everything that's being reported It's probably more like a year and a Half worth of inventory now on top of That guys when we are touring well Actually let me show you guys how busy It is by taking you back to Melody not Busy at all Travis here we are at Patranco Oaks a newb build site with 50 $4,000 in price cuts and as you can see It's empty it's Sunday April 14th the Weekend is when you think you would have Traffic looking to buy you know in the Spring selling and buying season but no All we can hear are the birds and the Flapping of these flags so many of these Flags we've seen across the country over These new build sites but the most Interesting thing here guys is right Next to the sales office is an existing Home for sale so what that existing Homeowner has to do now is actually Compete against the builders who are Offering so many different concessions And the buy downs and this is exactly What Travis and I don't want to happen To you as you saw absolutely dead not Even a sales rep not even a vehicle if I Own any of those model houses I would Rent a car and park it in front of that Sales studio so that you think that I'm Working I mean it's unbelievable and That entire area you guys was massive we
Really can't put into words just how big It is so let me show you just how bad it Is by taking you back to Melody here we Are at patranco Oaks uh where it's a Newb build site obviously uh what you Can see here what Travis will be showing You is uh they are actually uh expanding The road thank goodness uh but this Reminds me a lot of Surprise Arizona but This is a new build site already $54,000 in price cuts and guys look Behind you at at how much more is Planned here and on the way here uh There was a new build site every mile so Uh Travis and I couldn't even we had to Stop counting so absolute Insanity in Terms of oversaturation over building Right here in front of your eyes you Know we threw some overlay we took you There boots on the ground we really Can't put into words just how crazy San Antonio is right now with new Construction again if you don't believe Me just literally go to San Antonio and Go north east west or south it doesn't Matter it's in every single Direction Now remember you guys if you do go to Purchase a new home remember it's a Completely different Niche there's a Lack of consumer protection there's Arbitration agreements in the purchase Contract and they hide constantly hide Data and also guys the really big thing Is generally when you sign a contract
With a new home builder your earnest Money is no longer protected so yes can You get a home maybe at 2021 prices yeah You probably can but remember there are Many risk involved when purchasing new We're going to move on to the next Niche Which is commercial real estate here we Are in downtown San Antonio who is also Struggling with a commercial real estate Crisis right now vacancy here is 19% That's up from 13.5% in 2019 in the same Period and I'm standing right now in Front of USAA or former USAA office Space their name would have gone Probably right here they had 565,000 Square ft that uh they leased here They're no longer here we just can help Y'all no no where you are youall with The building or no public sidewalk um The sidewalks public but the property is Not it's private and we can't have y'all Thank you we're right here on the Sidewalk thank you I still can't have Y'all record there so it's a public Sidewalk right yes but the building Itself is public and I can't have Anybody report the building that's a lot With it being a private building you Want to just finish it yeah just just Call the pi Just finish it so speaking of USAA they Had 220 layoffs just recently announced Last week that brings their toer from Last year to 12200 we've taken you to
Downtown San Antonio literally In the Heat of the metro area took us forever To park as you guys can see there's Luxury apartments literally all over the Place how people can afford this I do Not know you see massive building here Another building over there there's Actually also if you guys look over There there's abandoned it looks like Once you know aart buildings now there's It's boarded up the windows are boarding Up things are falling apart I mean there Is abandoned apartment complexes Sprinkled in between some of these you Know luxury apartments it's the craziest Thing ever guys and let me show you this Way real quick because there's one two 3 4 it looks like five or six more luxury Apartments down there so there's not Going to be any type of you know short Supply of luxury and also right here Guys you know it says for lease so this Isn't full a lot of this is vacant back To you melody right behind me you can See one of the many cranes that we have Seen here in San Antonio and quite Frankly one of the many across the Country that we have seen with this Overbuilding and speculation that has Occurred commercial real estate we're Hearing about it every single day There's another property in the news Taking a huge write down here in San Antonio you have USAA which is a home
And an insurance company and they also Do lending they have had layoffs they've Had to vacate their commercial real Estate this is how it works in the Cycles and it's how these things go Together and you can't look at them in Isolation it's one thing to throw all This data at you it's one thing to even Show you all this video footage but more Important we want you to hear from folks Out there that are are you know living This every single day who have hopes and Dreams about finding that next home for Their next baby but you know really Don't see any logic in this market right Now welcome to Sha's residence Sean nice To see you sir welcome thank you sir so I have Sean with us guys because he's Someone that lives in San Antonio he Just moved uh he has a house he used to Own uh still does own actually in Memphis he moved to San Antonio and he Decided to rent a house instead of own a House and I wanted to give you guys a Different perspective of someone that's Actually living in San Antonio so we can Figure out why would they decide to rent What are they doing you know what are You doing as you're renting and then you Know basically what is his worries about Purchasing so before I begin brother you Know anything oh the power you guys of Social media wow am I right abely he Tweeted I did not expect you to be in my
Living room today that's crazy 48 hours After he did a tweet you guys you know We show up in his house how does that How do you feel about that man I'm Amazed by that I I'm huge fan of love Both of your channels so this is great So you know let's start with the first Question man you know obviously just to Tell the viewers you kind of became an Accidental landlord moved to San Antonio Uh obviously you're kind of chasing a Job where you can work wherever you want But let's start by you know explaining To the viewers why are you deciding to Rent right now versus own because he Does qualify he's making a decision to Rent okay so again he's not forced on The sideline so why are you renting man Right so we moved here uh to be closer To family as we had a baby and um really Initially it was kind of don't fight the FED like rates went from 3 to six with You know and we missed out on the really Low rates I just wanted to see what Happened with the market because of that But at this point it's just that the Spread between the premium you would pay To own which is normally the other way Around it's normally you know cheaper to Have a mortgage uh but it's actually More expensive to have a mortgage so Significantly that the amount of Principle we'd be paying down is Actually it's not worth it financially
And then you put on top of it you know The opportunity cost what you can be Doing with your down payment you put on Top of it that the inventory is Increasing significantly in San Antonio And how the market is changing it just Didn't really make sense and so you know And we went over this obviously before We started recording there's your little Baby precious little yeah shout outs a Little bit and to his wife shout out Thank you for your hospitality great People um you know so obviously Unaffordability is is a concern uh you Know we went over numbers he's paying Approximately I have his permission to Say this about 20 right $2,200 a month On rent we looked at how much it would Cost to purchase this house it would be About 3,200 so in order for him to Purchase a house like this he's got to Come $7 $1,000 out of pocket and in Addition to that $1,000 and so what he's Basically saying is that he doesn't like That is that correct you don't like that Yeah well yeah so the numbers would be Kind of on what our next what what we Would want for 10 years right it uh kind Of long term this this works for now but Yeah it was like 3700 would be the Mortgage payment if we put 10% down 2700 To rent it you're paying down only a Couple thousand you know in the first Couple of years because of a so just it
Just really doesn't make a lot of sense Financially at this point and and Sean You know I constantly tell the viewers That you know it's how you wait that Matters right like I'm renting right now I own but I'm renting with a purpose Mean I'm saving my money I'm working my Purchasing power so are you doing Anything um right now that is you know As you're renting that is improving your Purchasing power yeah I mean I'm getting 5% on my uh you know um on my down what Would be my down payment um you know We're blessed to not have any credit Card debt or anything like that so you Know I'm I'm also just looking at for Opportunities there's pretty significant Price drops in San Antonio so I'm able To kind of wait and see what happens Here as we see these Supply increases And be in the position to you know if Things did become the right environment For us to buy to be in a position where I'm not forcing it because of the timing Um because I did buy my first property In 2012 and you know 5x my down payment In four years during that time so I'm Just aware that you know it doesn't hurt To uh to wait what would you say you Know someone normal person I'll argue I'm also a normal person right even Though I don't okay thank you I'm a Little crazy I I get it um but what's Your biggest fear purchasing right now
What concerns you why you know cuz why You can qualify you can find a house you Can buy but what are you scared of yeah Great question so I mentioned we moved Here to be closer to family but my job Is not here and my company has done you Know return to office in other places um And so in the event it would be one Thing if there was it was more expensive To own than rent and I knew I was going To be there for a long time but I'm in a Position where if I had to then quickly Move somewhere for my job I would have To then either have a negative cash flow On what I could get renting the property That I purchased if I were to have to Rent it out or to have to pay you know Realtor fees again um on that purchase So it just you know the thing the worry Would be job change and you know return To office that kind of thing and then You know what about uh any concerns About losing Equity or No um I mean that too like I said like You know I've I'm following you know the San Antonio Market pretty closely I'm Seeing you know uh ZIP codes where Inventory is up 100% I'm seeing some Places where median list price is down 177% year-over-year so um yeah I mean Absolutely to Even in the you know the worst case Would obviously be the market turns that Supply builds up prices go down I've
Just purchased something and now you Know job change means I'm super in a bad Spot you know they say patience is a Virtue is probably a reason why they say That and I just want to say one more Time Sean you know brother thank you for The hospitality man I mean the social Media guys absolutely amazing you know I Wish you the best of luck uh don't Forget to join actually he is a part of Our Discord Community he yes he's gave Us some Intel so again brother uh from The bottom of my heart I appreciate the Hospitality I wish you Lu call on us Anytime communicate with us and Definitely take your time right take Your time do what you're doing and just One more time brother you're good man Good hey I'm putting out some charts on Twitter for San Antonio I work in Analytics so I've got like graphs of you Know neighborhoods and inventory and Price changes in San Antonio so at re Watchman on on X so Travis we sell quite A bit yesterday what do you think uh is It a good time to rent or a good time to Buy so here's the thing guys we're going To you know my answer the question I'm Trying to answer here is what's better Is it better to buy right now is it Better to rent right now and before I Give you my overall conclusion let me Show you guys and let me explain to you Guys the data so basically on average to
Rent a three-bedroom single family Residence is going to cost you about $1,795 okay so almost $1,800 now also Don't forget you guys that's flat Year-over-year and also inventory is Exploding so it's possible it's not Happened yet right but it's possible That the rent will go down even more now When it comes to purchasing when we look At a similar house and I'm taking about A $260,000 house looking at a Conventional 5% down payment at a 6 and 12 interest rate at a 2% tax rate for me Again I'm not your loan officer I'm not Quoting you anything right now but for Me the payment would be right around 2305 so the first thing we have to Understand is on average in San Antonio It's about you know from these Calculations about $500 more expensive To own which honestly some of the places That we've been to like California for Example that's not too it's a it's a gap First of all $500 is a lot but it's not Like ,000 be earning interest on that Right so it's $500 a month roughly more Guys that's $6,000 a year but remember We can use the inflation to get ahead so That $6,000 that I'm saving now I can Buy t- bills and get roughly $300 back On that money at 5% now um on top of That don't forget you also have to have A down payment so in order for me to Move in I calculated 5% that's also
Going to cost me not only $500 more a Month but 10,000 roughly $10,500 which would be a 5% down payment Now remember whatever money you use for A down payment to purchase a house you Can no longer hypothetically use that Money to invest like I am for example in T- bills so understand that your money Would be locked up uh and also guys you Know it really depends on what's going On with you now this next thing is for The Out of Towners now if you're in out Of town or you're coming into San Antonio obviously your PE ratio may be One you may have $250,000 cuz you sold Your California house and to those People I say please don't buy even then Cuz you're messing everything up for the Rest of us but if you must buy so be it If you're going to purchase in San Antonio what I would be doing as someone Purchasing is I would be comparing 2021 Values 2021 and if I can get to 2020 Values then I maybe that's a great deal But when I'm looking in San Antonio I'm Looking for the wedge which is uh having Equity in the house before you move in And having cash flow so if I have to Leave you know suddenly I lose my job And I can't sell because of negative Equity I could still rent it out and Cash flow and overall you guys you know Understand that San Antonio and Texas Specifically is a very unique Market we
Have a tremendous amount of new builds And I believe one of the primary reasons We're seeing San Antonio with Year-over-year price decline and being The only Metro according to redin at This time is because of the overwhelming New construction we have both homes tow Houses condos and apartments so honestly You know I still think overall 99% of People right 99 the specificity I think What we do right now is we continue to Sit tight let things play out increase Our purchasing power credit or income Our assets and you know what if we find A great deal we're using 2021 prices 2020 prices you're ready to move on with Your life you have proper expectations Plenty of money saved no Consumer Debt It may you it may be appropriate for you To do that but no one's going to know What's best for you like you now having Said all that right there's no crystal Ball here I cover some things you know Last question to you melody is what do You think is going to happen next in San Antonio and how can consumers get ahead Yeah so unfortunately Travis I think we Saw evidence yesterday of the sucking From the city uh and what happens is Because it's become too unaffordable in The city they move out to these excerts Where the new builds are where they can Get such great deals right but they have To be careful and so in that existing
Neighborhood we went to yesterday right Next to that elementary school so many Of those homes were for sale and I think Likely because it looked like a half Maybe um half rental long-term rental Neighborhood half ownership so I think You know that's your starter and and if They're going to move out to have that First baby or second baby that they're Going to be moving out of the city and That's why you saw that Nega .8 uh Demographic growth in down in the city Itself although the county expanded um Its population growth exponentially but What's going to happen you're going to Suck everything out the city these Neighborhoods are going to start to Degrade and by the way there is no Possibility guys no matter if an entire Country moved here uh that all of the This housing stock is going to be filled I mean it's insanity and in fact you Know from from San Antonio to Austin is Just one big new build site yeah so the Future unfortunately um you know I think San Antonio is it seems like a really Kind of kind of like a neat cool town You know uh smaller like a smaller big City if that makes sense but I think They've got a lot of pain to come that Poverty rate you're starting to see you Know even the construction jobs were up A little bit but those were starting to Slow so unfortunately I think you have
To be concerned about your equity in San Antonio okay and then what can consumers Do you think you know if anything what Can they do whether they own a home Maybe they don't own a home to get ahead Of the unaffordability to get ahead of The maybe hypers Supply in San Antonio To get ahead of how new home values are Now eroding existing home values and Really that's that's a huge element Negative equity right we're really Negative equ how could people prepare For that well if they want to stay there For the next 15 years it doesn't matter To them so much you know they I mean I Think make sure you're paying down your Debt that's what I would say to Everybody yes um but you know depending On what's going on your life you really Do need to be cautious at this time and It may seem impossible because of Inflation to save money but do anything You can to pay down every inch of debt You can because that is what's going to Make it difficult for you in in the days Ahead and so to me um you know your Situation is specific on what whether You need to move in 2 years so I can't Tell you exactly but I would just say Just do anything you can right now and I Know this may not sound fun get a second Job pay down that debt you know just Please get out from under it because the Next 3 to 5 years are going to be very
Challenging yeah but well said and you Guys we really hope you like this video We put a tremendous amount of effort Several days of shooting I mean I Probably got heat stroke uh it was ugly Out there man you know the riv the river River walk right Riverwalk almost Completely annihilated me so either way We hope you like this video we're in Austin we're going to start that don't Forget you guys if you want to support Us we lose money on these videos go to Her substack okay subscribe to her Substack she's been helping this entire Time so that's what you could really do Other than that guys if you're out there Investing in real estate you know that We wish you luck and we hope you win [Music]
