Welcome back to real estate mindset Today's video is going to be absolutely Bonkers now the data is in an inventory Right now is absolutely exploding Across The Nation and that is wreaking havoc on Certain housing markets now hopefully You're lucky like I am and you live in a Metro area where inventory is absolutely Exploding now as the pendulum starts to Swing the other way the bullish Narrative is absolutely being Destro Destroyed because remember you guys this Whole narrative that prices are only Going to go down has been built on the Whole laws of supply and demand but now That the rules and laws of supply and Demand are shifting more and more Bulls Are starting to flip-flop or they want To completely disregard the laws of Supply and demand which again is what Built their entire narrative and Honestly you guys I prefer that they do Flip-flop because if it means that less People will be rushing in into Financial Ru then that's great to me and there's No question that people are regretting Purchasing a home that have purchased Recently the buyers remor surveys again You can go to Experian go to Experian.com they will acknowledge 93% Of recent homeowners have buyers regret So all the people on the sidelines vital Signs all the people on the sidelines That are stressing out like oh my God I
Got to buy what are you want to rush for Do you want to join the club of buyers Remorse or are you going to join the Club of real estate mindset crew who are Sitting on the sideline trying to Maintain our purchasing power it has Been hard inflation has even hurt me you Guys but we're on the sideline we're Constantly looking for houses in fact I Have good news I found a house I may Make an offer as soon as I'm done Recording this video and this house okay I'm not foolishly buying houses guys I've been looking for what two and a Half years now I found a house now that Has 31% of equity which means that's a Crash it's 31% down from Peak I found it I haven't got it yet I'm making an offer But I'm super excited things are Starting to change so I really hope you Guys have been patient I hope that You've been working on your purchasing Power because odds are when we enter That technical recession things are Going to be harder it's going to be Harder to keep your job it's going to be Harder to get credit for things like a Home so you got to make sure that you're Okay right now because it's going to be Harder to do so in the future but Regardless you guys I have a amazing Data to go over with you today I'm going To show you guys what inventory is Currently doing for active inventory
Active listings and I'm going to show You guys that we have now minimum I Haven't checked every state but we now Have minimum according to Fred economic Data seven states that have more Inventory right now than lockdowns now We're going to start here with the Zillow article because Zillow has broken This down pretty good they're basically Highlighting two factors that are Driving traffic to some housing markets And I actually agree this is the first Time I've heard them acknowledge this so I think you guys are going to like this The name of this article is how the Housing market is changing in cities Gaining the most new neighbors which is Basically just demographics people Moving to different cities now let me Know if you agree with these two Paragraphs right here from Zillow a look Through zillow's housing data shows the Cities with the biggest population Growth generally have two factors in Common now here's again let me know if You agree with them number one is Affordability at least when compared to Bigger cities nearby so again not Downtown but the outskirts and number Two relatively more inventory so Affordability and availability they're Saying are the biggest factors driving The market today with mortgage rates Near 7% the cost of home purchasing is
Keeping many wouldbe buyers on the Sidelines but I'm going to add guys to That well first of all let me know if You agree is affordability and Availability are those the two key Factors now at driving the housing Market I mean we knew affordability was The number one factor it's finally those Lag effects you guys my God it took Forever but I'm going to add new home Construction new home construction is Vital at this point in the game we see It in Texas Texas is like the number one State Houston's the number one Metro I Live in Houston the number one Metro of New construction and I'm going to tell You guys like I've been saying for the Last year and a half the housing market Price crash or Price correction or Whatever you want to call it will follow New homes in fact we already know Because we see it in the data right Before they revised it by the way now Briefly what's interesting is is here's The top five Metro areas I don't want to Spend too much time here but it's very Interesting the number one here is Port St Lucy Florida number two and I've been Here Atlanta Georgia I've been watching In Atlanta Georgia a lot of the growth There is a result of migration is Population growth so again if that stops They're in big trouble a lot of those New home builders are banking on the
Migration continuing like work from home And things like that but it's not it's Not continuing it's slowing down Substantially but number three here Fort Worth Texas I'll be keeping my eyes on There so big population boom in Fort Worth Texas number four is Raleigh North Carolina I've also been there followed By Henderson Nevada I've also been there So I've been to almost all of these Metro areas except for Port St Lucy all Right now take a look at this article From Fast Company this is from Lance Lambert who has reached out and said He's willing to be on our Channel you Guys seriously comment below let me know If you guys want me to bring Lance Lambert to talk about the housing market On this channel let me tell you what I Like about Lance his data visualization I don't know anyone in the housing Market that has better data visual ation Than Lance Lambert I love his data Vis I Don't agree with his narrative though I Do not agree with all his narrative but The article name is housing market Inventory in Texas is back above Prepandemic levels these states could be Next and remember you guys what I have Been saying and what we saw in 2022 we Saw price decline official price decline Not seasonality but price decline happen In 2022 depending on the data source I'm Talking active inventory as measured
From red fin we hit about 900,000 units And that sustained and actually went up A little bit guess what you guys we hit That right now and so as inventory Continues to be dumped on the market and Meanwhile buying demand and purchasing Power is getting even worse so inventory Is growing demand is lowering it's only A matter of time before those homes Selling for under market value will Create comparable data that will affect Entire subdivisions now remember bullish The laws of supply and demand remember Let's just use their same narrative okay It's all shifting there's nothing they Could do about it it's shifting it I When is it going to happen in your Metro I don't know I'm not in your Metro I'm In my metro area in Houston and it's Already happening you got to pay Attention to what's happening in your Local housing market remember that guys And always keep your purchasing power Intact this is very embarrassing but I Just re-budget it again with my wife and We saved just on subscriptions and this Is messed up $460 a month we canceled 17 Subscriptions how I've already done that Three times how do we have another 17 to Cancel like for example I canceled uh Bloomberg Fortune market watch that's $100 right there $100 I was like oh my How am I doing this to myself my point Is guys you got to take a step back out
Of the Rat Race and check yourself Literally check yourself say what do I Want oh I want to be a homeowner well How do I get it maybe I should listen to What real estate mindset is doing maybe I should cut back on spending save my Money get out of Consumer Debt become an Expert in my local housing market by Reviewing comps either way let's jump Back in let me know about Lance Lambert Give it the absence of an excessive Amount of existing homes for sale on the Market it makes sense that spiked Mortgage rates and strained Affordability haven't resulted in more Regional home price Corrections again Guess what it's changing so it makes Sense now that we have that inventory Coming back that prices will actually Correct now this goes on we are starting To see National active listings rise However we're still well below Pre-pandemic levels or rather 33% below May 201 19 but they're counting May 2019 That's spring home buying season in 2019 If they really want to look at pre- Pandemic you got to go to December go to December not spring home buying season But regardless 33% below and these are Fred economic data numbers so right now We're sitting at 787 but let's not Forget back in May of 2021 we had 447 so We have close to double the amount of Inventory now preco okay so may of 2020
We had 928 and may of 2019 we had 1.18 That is changing quickly I believe and I Went on record and saying I think and Actually I hope and believe we will have 1 million active units in 20124 now here's Fred economic data this Just updated on June 4th so it updated To 787 722 now you may not think that's A lot but when we go back into other Mays it's a substantial increase you Guys it is a again substantial increase This time last year we only had 582,000 Active units so again that's an Additional 200,000 active units so Demand is no longer keeping Pace overall Yes some markets that's not true but Overall demand shot and inventory is Finally increasing these are great great Great things you guys but we're not Quite there yet now preco you know January 2020 we were at 951 675 so again I don't even think we necessarily need a Million but I definitely think we'll get There and when we get to that million Again I think we're going to get there In 2024 we will have an even faster Surge of price Discovery and the Str Enforcement hasn't even really begun yet So we got a lot of factors that are Going to be dumping inventory on the Market including the silver tsunami I Don't know if you guys know what that is Regardless let's look at our first state So this also updated June 4th in fact
All of the states I'm about to show you Updated on June 4th but Texas look at The surge look at the massive surge of Inventory in Texas I mean I'm sorry Bulls but your narrative is being ripped Apart the pendulum is swinging the other Way I mean we're not frozen in time I Mean they would be correct if we would Just stay frozen in time but things are Changing look at the trajectory and this Is may remember inventory goes up into September so odds are this is going to Shoot up guys and this is going to shoot Up higher than the 10-year average look At this so right before we went into Lockdowns we had 86,000 units up for Sale January 2020 right now may of 2024 We don't have 86 we don't even have 90 We don't even have 100 we have 101,000 active units in Texas and that's Only going up because it's only June Guys we got July August September and if It happens like it did last year Remember we got inventory at the end of The year as well that is how destroyed Purchasing power really is and take a Look at our second state I mean the Trajectory of Florida has just been Really really quite remarkable now it's Been happening since August of 2023 in Florida since August of 2023 in Florida It's skyrocketed I mean it's it's really Hard to Fathom the trajectory here Because it is substantial but Florida
Also has more active inventory than they Did pre- lockdowns what do you think That means same question what happens When those laws reverse what happens to Prices when the laws of supply and Demand reverse I'll tell you what Happens prices go down so Florida look It so Florida we're at 137 let's see the Last time we're at 137 look at this guys We got to go all the way back to June 2019 and again it's only they're only Counting to may we have more room for Inventory growth is my point but we're Going back again to June 2019 for Florida when they had 139,000 active Units right now we're sitting at 137 you Guys this is absolutely incredible take A look at this state here's our third State obviously Arizona look at the Trajectory you know very similar to Florida you know around August of 2023 I Mean everything started changing as far As inventory you see that right now Arizona is sitting at an active listing Count of 24558 so let's go back and see when we Had that much inventory back in 2019 so Right here so this is so crazy so in Arizona you guys we almost hit May 2019 In Arizona May of 2019 in Arizona they Had 2,125 active units right now they have 24558 you guys I don't know how else to Say this and I know it depends on your
Housing market but the housing market is Going to crash I'm talking prices okay The prices are going to crash because we Have a systemic failure and that Systemic failure is is Citizens can't Afford to buy a house the only people That could afford to buy a house right Now or people like Jeff that lived at Home until he was 30 years old and paid All cash for a house raise your hand if That's your Situation no one no one y'all see my Point y'all this bad boy is falling Apart y'all see it right do y'all see This the inventory is exploding but That's not all it doesn't stop at just Arizona take a look Utah has finally Made the cut so right now here's where We're sitting as far as active inventory In Utah sitting at 9,229 now we have to go back and let's See the last time in 2019 that we had That boom so we're going back all the Way to November 2019 as far as preco Active unit counts in Utah now you may Say oh well it actually went higher in 2022 but yeah but what did we have in 2022 remember price decline we had price Decline in 2022 and look at May of 2022 So let's compare 2022 to right now may Of 2022 we had almost half the inventory And yet it skyrocketed up do y'all see This so again we had 5400 active units May of 2022 again 2022 we had price
Decline look at the surge of inventory Okay the same thing is happening in fact We're probably going to go two tiers up The so far the states that I've just Showed you guys I'm anticipating before The end of this year that all of those States are going to have near 10 decade Highs on active inventory because we Don't need that much to get to where we Were and state number five Trey this One's for you brother Tennessee and Again you guys look at the inventory I Mean yeah you can see kind of Seasonality taking a toll but look at it I mean it's it's trending upward so Right now in Tennessee we have an active Unit count of 2,948 units so let me show you guys Where we have to go back to get to that Level okay so look so we're going all The way back again pre-lock Downs we're Going all the way back to December of 2019 in Tennessee again what I'm Explaining to you is the entire States Now are surging with inventory because Buying demand and purchasing power is Crippled as a result of not only Quantitative tightening but also because Of quantitative easing the prices the Prices went up too high and that's not All all right we got another state we Got six states okay here's Washington Look at Washington we're sitting at and Look the trajectory
Ah this I've been waiting I've been Patient you guys I've been getting beat Up out here I mean people are harassing Me people are saying evil things like I'm just Saying if I was just saying this there Would be no reason for me to present Data I'm saying these things because I Believe them and that's what the data is Suggesting it's very difficult because The media is working against us and it Feels like the FED is as well but look At guys in Washington we're sitting at 14,940 let's go to pre-lock Downs look At this we go all the way back to November of 2019 okay so we have as much Inventory as right after November of 2019 in Washington now again 2020 right Here look it we had more inventory than We do right now and that led again what I'm saying to price decline but look at Where it was in May so may of 2022 again Way less than what we have right now so I'm trying to point out again this Should go up one two possibly three Tiers all the way up here and if we get All the way up here on all of these States guess what we are at or around a 10 decade average we may hit that on all Of the states that I just showed you we May hit that this year 2025 you guys It's going to be a shamble for the Housing market now I wanted to surprise You okay with the seventh state surprise
We have a seventh state all right Colorado and by the way you guys I can Find more States using red fin that have More inventory all we're using right now Is Fred economic data okay look at this Colorado how did Colorado get on this List Colorado right now is sitting at at 18,446 active units let's go back before Lockdowns look at this we got to go all The way back to again December 2019 to Match this inventory so we have as much Inventory as shortly after December 2019 And again you may say oh we had more Inventory right here but not in May when We go down and look at may look at this Again I hope you guys see what I'm Saying here the trajectory is Exploding and price Discovery is coming With it but back in May of 2022 we only Had 10,300 active units right now may of 2024 we have 18,44 active units and I really want to Hear your opinions please share with me Let me know whether or not you agree With me now I've talked to a couple Bulls and you know what again they stop Talking about the loss of supply and Demand because they can no longer talk About it because it's working against Them I've also talked to Bulls where They say inventory doesn't matter Anymore when their entire argument was Inventory matters so now they're saying It doesn't matter but one thing that all
Of the Bulls get wrong and I'm not Saying only look at one thing but I am Saying one thing that they always get Wrong is income growth there was Virtually zero income growth and when we Look at the housing market and when we Match up Equity growth and income growth We always pay the price when house Values go up too quickly and income Growth doesn't keep Pace every single Time we pay the price in the housing Market go back in history seriously go Look at those things go back in history Check it out my point in this video is Is thank God I stayed on the sideline I Remained patient and I increased my Purchasing power because I'm starting to See more affordable houses and more Options in my own housing market in fact I may make an offer like I said as soon As I hit end on this video now other Than that guys I want to know what's Going on in your Market do you see this Do you see inventory blowing up do you See price Cuts blowing up do you see More incentives let us know share your Intel in the comments now if you guys Learned anything and gained insights Please like the video shoot me a Bonkers Below shoot me that Bonkers below you Guys what happened to the Bonkers give Me some Bonkers all right now other than That if you're out there investing in Real estate you guys already know I wish
You luck and I hope you win
