And welcome back some very interesting Dynamics are happening right now with Our U.S housing market based on my own Analysis of realtor.com's data housing Inventory has been decreasing for about A month compared to the same time frame One year ago also asking prices are also Going down as well so I'm going to Provide some insights about what's Happening right now regarding inventory Levels new listings uh price reductions And of course much much more in today's Video This is actually my favorite video I make for you guys each and every week So let's go ahead and Dive Right In of Course if you guys haven't subscribed Just yet I invite you to do so because I Post frequent housing market updates so You guys can make a more informed Decision about whether to buy or sell a House right now so again here's their Oracle from rules.com that was actually Posted last Thursday and again just like My other videos I do not even read their Analysis instead I actually like to look At the actual data itself and provide my Own analysis so go to realtor.com Research slash data click on this link Right here it takes you to this Information so the most recent stats They have for us is actually in mid-july So as of uh July 15th to be exact the Reason why I really like their data Though are their timely updates is that
It's much more timely than other Companies so for example the National Association Realtors just posted last Week June's numbers but realtor.com Provides data through mid-july and Actually just posted last week as well So in any case let's look at asking Prices because asking prices decrease by 0.9 percent uh last week compared to the Same time frame in 2022 asking prices Have also been decreasing year over year For the past six weeks in a row now this Is drastically different compared to December this year for example because Back in December last year asking prices Increased by about 10 to 11 percent and Now again last week it decreased by 0.9 Percent year over year that actually is Tied for the biggest decrease on record For data that goes back to July of 2017. That's as far back as realtor.com's data Goes also as a note right here for Comparison's sake asking prices uh Increased by 6.7 percent compared the Same week of 2019. okay changing gears Uh slightly here let's talk about house Inventory or the number of houses for Sale the change compared to one year ago So active listings uh decreased by 6.4 Percent year over year roughly on par With what uh altosresearch.com is also Reporting as well I'll share that here In just a little bit but active listing Count which again is housing inventory
Has now decreased year interviewer for Four consecutive weeks now this is Drastically different compared to the 50 To 70 percent increases we saw from December last year to March this year And let me just share that right here so December 3rd we saw an increase of 51 Percent and actually it peaked at around 68.8 percent back in late January and Early February but those gains continue Through March because uh by the end of March it still was up by 56 percent uh Much much different compared to the 6.4 Percent decrease we saw last week also It's a comment right here the number of Houses for sale compared to one year ago Has been mostly on a downward Trend Since early February from a lack of new Listings in other words it's not filling Up the bucket of housing Supply in other Words in order to increase housing Supply we have to have demand decrease Or new listings Inc increase as well That's number one and also number two Due to the fact that inventory was Skyrocketing this time last year in Contrast inventory this year is only Slightly up year to date I'll share a Chart showing how inventory levels Compare this year compared to years past Going back to 2018 from Altosresearch.com here in a little bit But just as a general snapshot right now One year ago there's approximately 525
000 house for sale according to Altos And right now or at least for the seven Days ended July 21st there's Approximately 479 000. that's a decrease Of nine percent year over year or Approximately 46 000 fewer houses for Sale right now compared to just 12 Months ago something worth mentioning Though is that we have roughly the same Number of houses for sale Nationwide Right now compared to the start of this Year it has been increasing slowly ever Since April this year as well one more Thing that's a very very different Compared to pre-pandemic levels though Is that we have approximately 51 percent Fewer house for sale right now Compares Same week of 2019. therefore we're Missing nearly 500 000 houses for sale When comparing that to pre-pandemic Levels let me share a chart from Altosresearch.com so right now Approximately a 479 000 homes for sale this is a little bit Lower compared to last year at 525 000 But at 479 this is higher than 2021 at 402 000 but still lower compared to 2020 As well as 2019. in 2019 approximately Uh 960 000 homes for sale now there's Only 479 000 a decrease of around 50 Percent or approximately 400 eighty Thousand fewer House of our sale Compared to at the same time frame in 2019 as well as 2018 as well though
Because in early August 2018 there's Around 955 000 houses for sale I also want to Provide some analysis regarding Inventory levels this year so let me Just zoom in so zooming in here Inventory levels to start the year was Around 471 000 it decreased through mid-april but Has been slowly increasing ever since Then but right now at 479 000 this is Roughly on par with the beginning of This year this is night and day Difference compared to what happened Last year because inventory levels last Year bottomed out at the very beginning Of March then they started skyrocketing In April and they really skyrocketed all The way until the end of July last year As I mentioned in previous videos one of The main reasons why we're seeing a lack Of house for sale for existing houses Historically speaking of course is this Right here new listings have been Decreasing by double digits more than 9.9 percent for 48 of the past 51 weeks We've had nearly one year in which new Listings have been decreasing by more Than 10 percent which of course is Absolutely insane last week it decreased By 18.7 percent year over year this also Marks the 54th consecutive week of Year-over-year decreases dating back to
Early July of 2022. this of course is Causing inventory levels to remain at Very low levels let's also have a look At how fast or how slow houses are Selling in the U.S right now because Last week it took 10 days longer sell a House compared to 2022 at this time so Houses are taking longer sale compared To last year now for a whopping 50 Consecutive weeks again though this is Based on close home sales therefore this Column right here is a lagging indicator Of our US housing market okay let's Change gears uh slightly here and talk About the number of price drops uh year Over year or the percent change in the Number of price reductions is what I Should say last week it decreased by 27.1 percent so approximately 27 percent Fewer price reductions by home sellers Compared to just 12 months ago it Actually has been decreasing year over Year for seven consecutive weeks now Additionally this also marks the fifth Consecutive week in which the number of Price drops has decreased by more than 20 percent just like the changes of House inventory these numbers right here Are a night and day difference compared To the start this year because at the Very beginning this year we saw Triple Digit increases in the number of price Reductions I have a couple theories Regarding why is the number of price
Drops actually going down whereas at the Very beginning of this year it was up by More than 100 percent so in my personal Opinion it's negative since June due to Two main reasons low inventory levels in Other words we have fewer options for Home buyers leading to fewer price Reductions from the last year that's Number one number two price drops were Skyrocketing at this time last year in Contrast they share of price reductions Is mostly flat year to date so far this Year regarding the share of price Reductions according to Altosresource.com on a national level The share price drops for the seven days Ended July 21st was approximately 34 Percent This has been rising very very slowly Ever since May this year but at 34 this Is roughly in par with early January at Around 36 percent also when I zoom out Looking over the past several years here At 34 this is a little bit below last Year's levels at 34.8 percent uh but 34 Is still higher compared to 2021 and 2020 but roughly on par with 2019 as Well as 2018. all right I know that was A lot to cover in today's video so if You guys are still watching this video Then of course I appreciate you but Here's a summary as well as some Predictions of what may lie ahead here Number one asking prices posted the
Biggest decrease on record over the past A few weeks here for data that goes back To July 2017. also it's been negative Year over year for the past one month Number two house inventory has decreased By by six percent year over year According to realtor.com this marks the Fourth decrease going back to May of 2022. what's highly unusual that Happened this year is that we did not See a seasonal uptick in the number of Houses for sale this spring so home Sellers are holding on to their very Very low rates especially given the fact That uh current rates right now are Around seven percent also new listings Have been decreasing by double digits For 48 of the past 51 weeks this Continued lack of new Supply here in the Market is causing inventory to remain at Historically low levels down by about 50 Percent comparison week of 2019. number Three the average 30-year fix rate is Around seven percent according to the Mortgage news daily as of today which is Uh July 21st one year ago average rates Were at 5.7 percent And actually let me just share average Rates today because when I started Filming this video they have not updated Their rates so 6.98 was actually on Friday let me just refresh this to see It has been updated yeah 6.98 as of Friday but I'm guessing that the average
Daily rate which is on Monday July 24th Is probably going to be around 7.01 that's my forecast or my prediction So with the beauty of editing uh my Editor will add the actual percentage Right up there I'm guessing in around 7.01 we will see it in any case when Looking at rates one year ago average Rates were at 5.69 an increase of around 1.3 percent Points for people with great credit Compared to just 12 months ago and going Back to my summary right here number Four the share of price reductions is Roughly the same uh right now compared To last year it's also roughly the same Compared the same week of 2018 and 2019. Number five houses are taking longer Sale compared to one year ago for 50 Consecutive weeks again though this is a Lag indicator of our U.S Halsey Market So number one were some huge changes Coming ahead uh given the fact that Average rates are about uh what 1.3 Percent points higher compared to one Year ago which by the way as I mentioned Right here a 1.3 percent Point increase In average rates causes a 13 decrease in Buyers purchasing power this is Something we should definitely pay Attention to because when home prices Increase and rates increase of course The roads uh buyer's ability to buy a House and therefore that could or should
Decrease home buying demand very very Soon here also there's lots of Challenges right now for home buyers as Well we have record low housing Affordability low inventory levels of Existing houses elevated rates as well As the potential of recession potential Later this year or maybe even early next Year we will see number two housing Affordability is of course a very very Big issue for home buyers especially Compared the past couple of years rates Have more than doubled compared to 2020 And 2021 and also home prices or home Sold prices are up by about 40 percent Compared to 2020. so average mortgage Rates in general had been on the rise Ever since April this year and at a National level home sold prices have Increased by about 10 percent year to Date that's based on my own analysis of Redfin's data so in other words we have Rising rates and Rising home prices Which of course makes housing Affordability even worse and my personal Opinion this is not sustainable I would Imagine we're going to see some Thoroughly significant changes here in The second half of this year due to Seasonality and of course due to housing Affordability constraints number three Early signs of home buying demand have Been absolutely all over over the place This year due to the volatility in rates
The most recent stats we have that show That applications for Home Loans to buy Houses decreased by 21 year over year For the week ended July 14th that's Based on data from the MBA when looking At pre-covered levels their purchase Index which again is a measure of the Amount of people submitting applications To buy houses is roughly on par with the Lowest levels going back to 2015. in Other words demand is still very very Low also redfin's most recent data shows That pending home sales decreased by 15 Percent from a year ago and also new Listings fell by 25 so low demand is Meeting low Supply also the National Association of Realtors reported on June 29th that pending home sales in May fell By 22 percent from May of 2022. however In stark contrast new home construction Sales and by the way the U.S census Braille measures a new home sale as a Contract being signed between buyer and Seller so new home sales really acts More like a pending home sale than Anything else so existing home sales or Existing pending home sales decreased by 22 percent this may whereas new home Sales actually increased by 20 of course This means that home builders are Getting an advantage here or a Competitive Advantage due to the low Supply of existing house for sale and Also due to buy Downs that home builders
Are still offering home buyers right now It appears our healthy Market is highly Rate dependent so therefore the data is Ever changing and of course The data I share in today's video is on A national level so real estate of Course is local what I'm sharing in Today's video may not pertain to your Neighborhood your state or even your Region here number four home Sellers and Home buyers have exited the market this Has led to a dip of new listings as well As a dip of pending home sales compared The past several years the lack of new Supply or a lack of new listings for Existing houses since last summer has Led to inventory remaining at historical Low levels down by about 50 percent from 2019. if in a big if if homeowners Continue to decide that now is not a Good time to sell our houses that will Limit inventory levels in my personal Opinion the direction of our U.S housing Market will depend on inventory levels Unemployment rates as well as mortgage Rates as well and number five this is a Big one I appreciate you guys watching Today's video and of course for Supporting my YouTube channel in general Hope you guys have an awesome day and Look forward to seeing you on the next Video [Music] [Music]
Thank you Foreign
