You're looking for a soft-ish landing Let's talk about the ish any evidence of That developing at the moment as you Look at the incoming data Uh yeah john good to see you i think There's a few things that i look at they Give me a hope that we may actually have A wider path to a soft landing here the First one is you look at the growth Numbers i mean even with the oecd Downgrading growth today it's still a Positive number and if you look at the Us we're expecting 2.6 percent this year 2 next year this has not fallen off the Cliff it is still hanging in there so Yes we're squarely in a slow down part Of this but this doesn't yet have to be An imminent recession you know the Second thing that i look at and frankly I've not been able to say that yes we Have seen peak inflation and yes this is It but now i feel like there is more and More evidence building that maybe we are Starting to see peak inflation i mean Look at used car prices they're starting To decline look at the businesses Intentions to continue raises prices They just can't do it anymore so more And more of them are saying we're gonna Pause if you look at businesses Intentions to raise wages they're Pausing as well so they're starting to Be sort of a preponderance of evidence That maybe inflation is in fact easing
And this is commodities notwithstanding But the other inflationary pressures Seem to be easy And then the third thing john that Really gives me some confidence that Maybe we can engineer a soft landing is The fed is starting to sound a little Bit more balanced yes of course they Need to fight inflation but maybe it Doesn't have to only be by raising rates Well into tightening territory you know Maybe they can pause and let the high Prices naturally bring down demand so i Think if they back away just in time we Might end up with a 94 scenario versus The 70s
