Welcome back mortgage rates have been Decreasing but so has home sales in Other words housing affordability has Been improving we're not seeing a Increase in home sales on a national Level in today's video I'm going to talk About the latest housing market news From redin just posted last week Regarding housing inventory home prices Home sales the share of price reductions And much much more this was just posted On September 19th so if you guys are new Here please subscribe if you haven't Done so already I post frequent housing Market updates so you guys can make a More informed decision about whether to Buy or sell a house right now with that Said I appreciate you guys so much let's Begin again just posted on September 19th and this is kind of funny it says Housing payments have decreased nearly $300 per month from April's all-time Record high improving affordability has Yet to push up pening home sales so Because rates have been decreasing it's Basically about $300 less per month to Buy a house right now looking at asking Prices on a national level and of course Looking at uh weekly rates according to Freddy Mack so housing affordability has Been improving but a measure of Contracts being signed between buyers And sellers or pending home sales is Actually still down now here's the funny
Part it says but that could change after The FED cut interest rates for the first Time since 2020 this week so you guys all know the FED cut rates the federal funds rate by 50 basis points or 0.5 percentage points On Wednesday but yeah the the FED does Not control mortgage rates they control The federal funds rate which is the Short-term rate that Banks charge each Other to lend each other money it's Basically an overnight rate uh that uh Cut by the FED controls really Short-term rates so if you have a Balance on your heled loock or your home Equity line of credit have a balance on A credit card or you want to buy a new a New car I don't advise you doing that Right now but if you want to buy a new Car also your interest rate would be Lower today as well but the FED cut Rates on Wednesday and the funny thing Is that ever since Wednesday rates have Been increasing very slightly because Everyone knew everyone thought the Fed Was going to start cutting rates on Wednesday and because of that weeks Maybe even months before that the Mortgage rates we saw then had already Taken consideration that the Fed was Going to cut rates on Wednesday last Week anyways I think it's just kind of Laughable here saying that after the FED Cut Cuts interest rates uh that could
Improve pening home sales it's just kind Of ridiculous uh anyways it says the Meeting us housing payment this is Average monthly housing payments at $2,534 per uh month uh for the Forex Ended September 15th was down by 2.7% From one year ago the biggest year- ofe Decrease since May of 2020 therefore Monthly housing payments are falling Because of decreasing mortgage rates Which have dropped to the lowest levels In about 20 months leading up to the Fed's rate cut decision last Wednesday I Want to share what they have to say Regarding um some more Trends though but I want to talk about this here it says Demand may improve after yesterday's Interest rate cut this uh article was Posted last Thursday so demand from home Buyers May improve after yesterday's Interest rate cut by the FED with House Hunters who had been waiting for the FED To lower rates not mortgage rates the Federal funds rate uh for the waiting For the FED to lower rates jumping into The market now now that has actually Happened but again don't be confused Here the FED does not decrease mortgage Rates they decrease short-term rates and Of course the short-term rates that Banks charge each other to lend each Other money not mortgage rates So redin economists note that mortgage Rates are unlikely to fall much further
In the next few weeks because markets Have already pric in expectations of an Aggressive aggressive rate cut that was On Wednesday and the FED is projecting Only gradual cuts from here on out but Rates may swing up or down before the End of the year depending on incoming Inflation and jobs uh reports so there You go rates are going to be up or down From for the M of the Year duh right but it's just kind of Funny here saying that at the very Beginning of this article that after the FED starts cutting interest rates for The first time since 2020 last week that Pending home sales could improve but When you read on it talks about how the Market had already priced in those Expectations of a Fed rate cut and of Course rates could be moving up or Down ridiculous anyways uh suck about Application numbers a lead indication of Our housing market here our home buying Demand so mortgage purchase applications That's from the MBA or the mortgage News Daily not the mortgage The Mortgage Bankers Association that was up by 5% From one week ago with some buyers Jumping off the sidelines as mortgage Rates uh fall but many would be home Buyers are still holding off with Pending home sales down 6.9% Year-over-year one of the biggest Decreases since October of
2023 so therefore we're seeing more Inventory we're seeing decreasing rates Yet pending home sales are still down by About 7% year-over-year they mentioned That right here new lines are up by 5.1% Year-over-year and the total number of Houses for sale or hous inventory is up By 16.1% also according to Rin there are Several reasons sales have not picked up Home prices are still Rising is the First one Oh maned all right let me just share a Chart looking at prices so let me know If you guys think that home prices are Still Rising take a look at this graph Which is right here let me just um Exclude prior years only looking at this Year what do you guys see are home Prices still increasing or or Rising I Don't know you guys let me Know I think that was mean is that home Prices are still up compared to the Previous year and at 3% this has Basically been paid at three to about 4% Basically all all year so sales are Rising compared to last year but clearly Prices are decreasing ever since really Uh June this year which by the way is Normal it is seasonal to see prices Decrease around Midsummer and then to Kind of gradually decrease for the mid Of the Year through U the early part of Next year in any case home prices are
Still rising and redin agents report That wouldbe home buyers are waiting for Rates to fall more while other Prospective buyers um aren't even aware That rates actually have decreased they Actually been are not following my Channel if uh they believe that aside From rate related uh reasons agents Report that many house owners are Confused about the new n rules and Others are waiting for after the Presidential election by the way I've Made several videos regarding these new Uh ner rules uh based on the settlement That was announced um several months ago And if you guys have any questions about That then please leave me a comment Below I made videos about these but um Maybe it's worth um you know helping you Guys out in the comment section if I can And then maybe we'll make some more Videos regarding that as well what we're Seeing based on you know boots on the Ground experiences as a agent here in Sacramento uh what I'm personally seeing Regarding the impact to our housing Market and how it is to buy a house Right now so if you guys have any Questions about that or if you want a Separate video about that then please Leave me a comment below all right Moving on let's talk about leading Indications and we'll talk about rates So as of September 18th last week the
Daily rate according to the mortgage News Daily was at 6.15% now I'm making today's video on Tuesday September 24th looking at their Website now it's at 6.18% a decrease of two basis points Compared to yesterday look at these rate Though FHA and VA loans is around 5.75% so looking at the 30-year fix rate Going back one year one year ago at this Time look at that one year ago we're at 7.39% a giant decrease down by 121 basis Points or 1.21% points compared to 12 months ago So my big takeaway regarding that is That it's pretty well to see that Pending home sales are down by 7% when Last year's time were basically at you Know way over 7% around 7.4% so decreasing rates so far really Haven't caused home sales to increase This year in my opinion this is really Due to the fact that housing Affordability is still a giant issue um Right now because of increasing Insurance costs in some areas um I Personally haven't seen that very much In Sacramento but increasing um Insurance costs especially in Texas Florida other states that have you know Big increases in um home insurance rates But of course still elevated home prices As well now speaking of application Numbers that did increase by 5% from one
Week ago we are down by 4% um from 12 Months ago um actually did some digging For you guys I looked at their weekly um Survey that the MBA actually posts I Actually went back all the way through 20121 I didn't see any um week in which Um application numbers were down by uh Less than 4% so this is actually the one Of the smallest decreases year-over-year In quite some time let's have a look at That report just posted on September 18th and this report or survey covers The week ended September 13th now this Is wild the refinance index excuse me Increased by 24% compared to the Previous week and is up by whopping 127% compared to 1 year ago so a lot of People or I should say a big increase uh Of people applying for a loan to Refinance their mortgage compared to one Year ago uh back in gosh when was it Late 2022 that number I believe was down By about 90% because rates were Increasing so much and right now a huge Increase up by 127% from one year ago maybe I should Start making some more videos about refi Because of course we're seeing a big Number right here uh also the seasonally Adjusted purchase index which of course Is a measure of people submitting loan Applications to buy houses that Increased by 5% but again it has only Increased by 4% from one year ago also
Take a look at this the refinance share Of application numbers was at 51.2% so Basically of all the applications Whether it's for a refy or for a Purchase half were from a refi and half Were for a purchase that number by the Way 51% that was in the range of 30 to About 35% for much of this year so a big Increase in the share of refi right now Something that is also worth noting as Well we're not seeing this giant Increase of people submitting loan Applications using an arm or an Adjustable rate mortgage and of course An arm is a loan product that's more Risky in which the um the fixed term is For a short period of time it could be 5 10 7 years EX Etc it's fixed for a short Period of time and thereafter it becomes A variable rate loan therefore it's much Much more risky compared to a 30-year Fix rate for example so any case what I Mention that is that the share of people Who are doing arms is still at Relatively low levels um only at about 5.9% of all application numbers right Now going back to redin support let's Talk about redfin's home buyer demand Index that's of course a index which Measures home tours and other home Buying services that they are getting From their agents that is unchanged from One month ago and down 7% year-over-year Meanwhile Google searches for homes for
Sale not home for sale is down 8% from a Month ago and down a whopping 16% from 12 months ago all right let's talk about Some other Trends we're seeing right now We'll talk about prices inventory levels New L scenes um and much much more And this uh these kind of like area of This report covers 400 plus us metros uh Their weekly data goes back to the year Of 2015 and it is subject to revision so In regards to home prices based on the Median sale price we're at just over 385,000 up by 3.4% year-over year also the Medan Monthly mortgage payment like I Mentioned 25 $534 per month that is a Decrease down by 2.7% year-over-year the Biggest year-over-year decrease since May of 2020 and like I mentioned it's Approximately $300 less to buy house per Month um right now compared to uh the All-time high that was set back in April This year they also analyzed the 50 most Pop metros as well now this is a fairly Significant change compared to one month Ago because they are now noting for the Four weeks ended September 15th because There's now nine metros that are down Compared to the previous year looking at The data from last week there was Actually eight metros that were down now There's nine also one month ago there Was five metros now let basically double That at nine down year-over-year the
Biggest decreases is of course Austin Texas down by 4.8% then we have Oakland down by 3.1 San Antonio down by 2.5 5 Dallas has Decreased by 2.3 and Tampa has uh Experienced a decline of 1.5% in contrast these are Big swings Here look at uh New York New Jersey up By nearly 12% compared to nearly 5% Decrease in Austin Texas then we have Milwaukee Providence noso County New York and Warren Michigan up by 7.9% in Regards to the Metros that have Experienced the biggest increases of Pending home sales and the biggest Decreases these are these metros let's Start with the biggest gains that's San Antonio Texas up by 7.6 then we have San Jose California Phoenix San Diego and Cleveland Ohio in Contrast West Palm Beach Florida Experienced the biggest decline down by Whopping 20% if you guys know what's Going on in that market leave us a Comment below because a 20% decrease in The measure of contracts being signed as A huge decline after that we have Miami Florida down by 19.2 New Brunswick New Jersey down by nearly 15% Fort lawdale Florida down by 15 in Atlanta down by 14% therefore out of the 50 most Populous metros 15 are actually up Compared to one year ago this is Actually a slight improvement from last
Week so the previous week there was 13 Metros that were up now there's 15 in Regards to new Supply in the market or New listings the those decrease in 12 Metros so in contrast it means that 38 experience increases of the measure Of new Supply in the market so increase Of new listings for the most part of the United States those biggest increases Las Vegas Nevada up by 18.3 then we have Phoenix San Jose New York and Anaheim California based in Orange County um the biggest uh declines In contrast so were San Anton Texas down By 21% Atlanta Austin Texas San Francisco and Chicago Illinois down by 4.7% for the nation as a whole let's Look at pending home sales so pending Home sales are down by 6.9% yet new listings Rose by 5.1% so even though we saw an increase Of more Supply here in the market or More houses being listed for sale up by 5.1% pending home sales actually Decreased by nearly 7% on top of that There's approximately 16.1% more homes for sale right now Compared to the same time frame one year Ago but again we still saw a lack of Home sales last week redin also notes Here that the gains of 16.1% of inventory is actually the Smallest increase since April this year Um also the month supply is at 3.9
Months uh an increase of8 points or or Uh what was it 3.1 months one year ago That is by the way at 3.9 months the Highest level since February this year Let's take a look at Red Fin's data Center regarding new listings so again That did increase by 5.1% year-over-year Here's something I found to be Interesting that's actually the biggest Year-over-year gain going all the way Back until basically June this year so The measure or the increase of new Supply in the market is B basly at a 2mon low when looking at your Vier Changes when we include the past several Years this is something I also note as Well new new listings are basically Increasing for the past couple of weeks Whereas in years past and this is kind Of normal new Supply here in the market Kind of tends to Peak around May and June and then kind of decreases for the M of the year however this year as you Can see right here new Supply in the Market has now increased for the past Two consecutive weeks not a long-term Trend obviously but we'll have to keep An eye on this to see if this continues In the coming months in regards to Pending home sales that is at least a Three-year low right now and also down By nearly 7% year-over-year in contrast Let's look at active listings or housing Inventory that has been decreasing ever
Since really July this year here's also Something I found to be interesting as Well the gain of 16.15% is actually the smallest gain Going all the way and back until the Forex ended April 7th this year in other Words if you guys want to see home Prices decrease greatly inventory is Basically moving in the opposite Direction it is actually normal though For inventory levels to kind of peak Around uh the summer months and then Decrease for the M of the year so this Would be a normal seasonal downturn that We're seeing right now going back to Revins article looking at the month Supply at 3.9 9 months this is easily at Least a three-year high right now one Year ago and also back in 2022 the month Supply was at 3 months now we're at 3.9 Months also in contrast looking at a Much more competitive market like we saw In 2021 when back then you know average Rates uh for a third-year fix was around 2.8% pretty crazy uh back then the month Supply was only around 2.2 months now Has increased to 3.9 months right now in Regards to how fast or how slow houses Are selling right now in fact it's Taking about 37 days to sell a house Right now this is much higher compared To one year ago and uh two years ago When it took back then around 30 days to
Sell a house so it's taking Approximately uh one week longer to sell Home on average right now and that of Course is all helping contribute to the Increase of housing Supply right now as Houses are taking longer to sell one Thing I want to mention I just kind of Spent about five minutes kind of looking At this is that normally red fin right Around here shares the share of price Reductions Nationwide but for whatever Reason that chart is gone I believe it's Um after the talk about uh the percent Of houses selling over the list price But in this article it's gone so maybe They'll include it in Thursday if you Guys know please leave me a comment Below so here's what I did I looked at The report from one week ago and and you See here here's the share of houses that Sold over asking then you have the share Of price rejections last week or the Previous week we're at 6.6% and that was at least a threeyear High during the same time frame then you Have the percent of sale price to final List price ratio this week though you Have these percent selling over asking And no share of price ruction so I don't Know what's going on um hopefully That'll include that Thursday's report But no mention in this report why They're not sharing the share of price Drops just like they do every single
Week uh for years now since I've been Making this video anyways moving on here One more um chart I want to share with You guys is a percent of sale price or Percent of sale price to final list Price ratio so that ratio is at 99% Which is a kind of fancy way to say here That out of all the houses that did sell The sale was finalized they sold for one Percentage point less than the sell's Final list price so if you're asking Price was $100,000 on average home Sellers sold their house for $99,000 or a 1% decrease of your asking Price um that my friends though was at Least a threee low right now lastly Looking at Red Fin's home buyer demand Index that's also at least a threeyear Low right now and down 7% year year with That said if you guys got any value out Today's video then please hit the like Button I greatly appreciate that also Check out my website if you guys want to Apply for a loan um or if you want to uh Get connected with a great real estate Agent in your neck of the woods that's Real estate tefer decom hope you guys Have an awesome day and look forward to Seeing you on the next video [Music] D [Music]
