John why the change let's start there Well i mean more than anything else this Is An earnings story that our earnings Estimate which when we put it out at 185 Dollars of earnings for the s P was the highest on wall street and It's just too low this the the numbers Are coming in just too Strong and it's not in one group banks Are beating by 35 um tech is beating By almost 30 percent industrials Discretionary Companies are up 50 60 percent on Average And you know ultimately we needed to you Know increase the earnings Um outlook that was what drove it and Then we as we see That the the overall stock market price Was right on our tails and so we moved Our numbers up John you know i got to congratulate you Folks you're looking at the guy Who came out in january and said if you Sell tech and go to everything else You're going to be out of your minds In hindsight john you look like a genius What do i do with tech as lisa mentioned They didn't move on earnings No surprise there are they part of your Lift to 5 000 Uh yes or no tom i mean we actually
Think that Boring old economist listen i've been a Growth guy a tech guy for a very long Time And every kind of stock has its moment In the sun I don't know if this is the moment in The sun for tech i think this is The time for old economy stocks because These are companies With big fixed overhead with that that Tend to respond more To the kind of stimulus that we're Seeing proposed by the biden Administration and And generally the kind of overheating We're seeing the general economy can we See earnings like this continue And the force uh four six thousand four Six hundred excuse me four six thousand Maybe next year Uh for the s p without a commensurate Rise In yields without a commensurate read Through to the bond market and how much Is there a feedback loop here Well first of all i my expectation Is that we're going to see interest Rates rise a little bit from here and if You actually look at how Stocks respond they want higher interest Rates and that's because What we're seeing right now with the 10-year bond yield at 1.6
And with fed funds at zero it's a sign That the economy is not yet on stable Footing And so the market wants to see the Demand for capital strong as a sign that Things are healthier so If we had interest rates you know closer To two percent by the end of the year The stock market is higher not lower
