Welcome back I uncovered a very alarming Trend that I'm seeing right now in the US housing market that could um kind of Depict what's going to happen for the Rest of the year so here is a um article I found on rcom's website just posted Today uh this covers the entire month of April the first report I've seen um for Uh that month um right now and this Video is made on May 2nd uh but I want To make this video for you guys I'm Going to try to slow it down here Because uh Um the the stats they're sharing in this Report from realor.com is the same stats They've been sharing for the past Several months um but I'm going to Actually look at a deeper dive into Inventory numbers because some there's Some very big changes here so let's just Look at what they had to say first and I'll talk about what I'm seeing as well That you guys should definitely be aware Of probably the most important Trend I've been seen or I have been covered uh For quite some time it says there was uh 30 3.4% more hous of for sale uh this April Uh compared to the same time frame in 2023 so on a year-year basis there's an Increase of 30.4% in the number of existing houses For sale Nationwide that marks the sixth Consecutive month of year viye inventory
Growth it says well inventory this um April is much improved compared to the Previous three years it is still down 35.9% % compared to the typical 2017 through 2019s levels for the month Of April so therefore the amount of Houses we have for sale this April is Down by about 35.9% compared to preco levels for the Month of April uh this is a slight Improvement compared to last month uh 37.9% Gap as inventory continues to Slowly improve toward normal CA So here's a chart looking at inventory And uh let me just briefly explain this So here is uh 2017 above at the Blue Line the red line is 2019 and the orange line is 2018 Obviously pre-co levels this line right Here is 2020 obviously here's 2024 the line just below that is 2023 the green line 2021 and right below Here 2022 so when I when I was reading this I Thought okay well yeah inventory is up By 30% um from one year ago which is Good because to start the year we're at Um very low levels at least compared to One year ago and also even though Inventory is up um by over 30% um on a Yearyear basis it's still down by about Uh 35.9% compared to pre pandemic levels Now look at their report report from
January in January they kind of said More than less the same inventory in January is still down by 39.7% compared to the typical January 2017 through 2019 levels down by about 39.7% then in February inventory is Still down by 39.6% compared to 2017 through 2019 arm Prior with January at 39.7 then in March Still down 37.9% compared to the typical uh preco Levels and now we're down by 35.9% um this April now here's what I I Noticed and you know let me know what You guys think about this as well I Would just eyeballing this so here's the Inventory growth we're seeing right now Just looking at the growth rate over the Past two months inventory to me just Eyeballing this U right now and I'll Have some stats that support this just Eyeballing this I was looking at this Going gosh okay inventory was flat in February not a lot of big movement Compared to January but March and April To me it looked like a bigger change Compared to uh 2017 through 2019 so we're up by 30.4% from a year Ago but we're still way below Pre-pandemic levels so I have some Thoughts to share regarding that let's Actually look at um raw data and I Actually provide this uh analysis
Looking at inventory levels Let me just zoom in really quickly here Uh so um you know there's a lot of Numbers here but I'll walk you through This and just stay with me promise I Promise I promise that uh this is a very There's a spider hanging down from the Light anyways um there's some very Alarming trends that I'm going to Uncover for you guys that you guys Should absolutely 100% be aware of I'm Not bluffing you guys so the let's look At uh 2022 we all know that home prices Decrease in the second half of the year And then a decrease on a year-year basis To start 2023 so let's look at October Of 2020 uh 2 um compared to the levels We saw in October in 2017 through 2019 which by the way the average this By the way is data from r.com you guys Can get this on their website it's Realtor.com Researchdata click on monthly inventory And then click on this right here us Historical data any case going back here The average number of houses for sale in October looking at preco levels was just Under 1.3 million houses for sale Compare that to October uh 2022 there was 752 th000 just over that Back then and that was a 41% decrease Compared to preco levels so not a big Deal right we have 41% fewer homes for Sale compared to you know 2017 through
2019 one would assume that home prices Will still increase right no right Because even though inventory was 41% Less in October of 2022 compared to the pre-pandemic Average during that month home prices When I'm talking about home prices I'm Talking about the US meeting home sold Price anyway home prices fell towards The end of the year in 2022 on a Month-to-month basis then the national Meeting sale price in March of 2023 Compared to March of 2022 uh Decreased that was the first year of Your decrease since 2012 so just taking a step back here Even though there was 41% fewer house for sale in October 2022 Compared to the preco levels or compared To the average pre-co levels home prices Started to decrease and back in what was This actually let me look at this uh Back in uh March of 2023 uh the US home S price decreased by 1.1% that was the first year- ofe Decrease since February of 2012 the first time in about 11 years in Which home sold prices decreased on a Year-year basis are you guys following Me so right now we have we're down by um 35.9% from pre-co levels and this is Kind of what we saw back in 2022 down by 41% but despite that inventory or
Inventory was increasing but despite That home prices tanked especially in The last half of 2022 and the early Parts of 2023 so why did home prices decreased so Much even though we were down greatly Down by 40% and the reason is this right Here I added this column these two Columns is what I pulled from uh rcom's Uh website but I actually added this as Well so I actually want to look at the Year-to-date change for the entire year Of 2022 so to start the year um let's just Look at you know February we're down by 8% compared to January then we saw a Decrease as well in March and then we Only saw a 1% gain um from January Through April then the inventory numbers Started Skyrocket greatly starting in May so may uh compared to January up by 27% then by the time we hit um October Of 2022 inventory doubled so inventory Doubled in about 10 months going from About uh 377,000 Up to about 752 th000 so inventory Doubled in 10 months and so therefore in My personal opinion the reason why home Prices started to decrease in the last Half of 2022 into the early parts of 2023 is due to the rate of change a huge Increase over the past 10 months Inventory basically started skyrocketing Once we hit May 2022 okay I hope you
Guys are still with me because again When looking at the 2022 correction We're still way below uh the average um Compared to uh 2017 through 2019 which Is exactly what we're seeing right now Right down by 35.9% right now at least for the month Of April so here's a look at Inventory um the uh the growth rate of Inventory this year compared to Year's Pass and I hope you guys are still Watching today's video because this took Me hours and hours I I spent all day on This because I was just trying to figure Out to me this does not make sense Inventory to me looks like it's Increasing much more compared to Previous years and so rather than Looking at a point in time compared to What we're seeing this month I want to Share the growth rate so any case uh the Year to year-to date change this year This is uh January through April this Year is a giant increase of 10% so far This year that's about um 68,000 you Know nearly 69,000 more House of sale Nationwide Right now I should say by the end of April compared to January now look what Happened in uh 2019 18 and 17 so 2017 the change from January to April Was a 4% gain then 2018 a 6% game 2019 from January to April again only it
Only increased by 2% whereas this year It Rose by 10% so that's basically five times the Rate we saw in 2019 about double compared to 2018 and More than double compared to 2017 also Check this out because the biggest um Change from January to April looking at These uh years was actually in 2018 and That was an environment in which rates Were increasing so there was 58,000 more Houses for sale in April 2018 compared To January what's alarming about this is That look at this year remember there's Far fewer houses for sale right now Again down by 35.9% compared to the average preo Levels even though we have 36% fewer Houses for sale we have more houses Being listed for sale um from January to April this year compared to years past Uh nearly 69,000 more houses for sale Compared to January whereas we only had 58,000 in 2018 26,000 in 2019 and only 44,000 in 2017 so what the heck does This all mean look at this here's the Change from January to April this year Which is right here 68,7 49 compare that To the average January to April change From 2017 through 2019 which is this Right here nearly 43,000 this means that there's 63% more Houses for sale this January compared to April this year compared to the pre
Pandemic average so in other words just Taking a step back here uh the growth Rate of inventory is absolutely Skyrocketing compared to uh historical Norms um despite the fact we have you Know 35.9% um fewer house for sale this April Compared to the average April in 2017 Through 19 what's also alarming about This as well is that again we're up by 10% year-to date so far this year Remember home prices corrected in 2022 Right the last half of 2022 so at this Time in 2022 inventory only increased by 1% There's only 3,000 more House of for Sale right now there's nearly 69,000 so it's pretty alarming comparing The growth rate we're seeing this year Compared to 2022 um so far we're seeing of course Far higher inventory growth uh this year Compared to then a couple of things I do Want to mention though comparing this Year to 2022 is that inventory did not Start gaining momentum until May of 2022 As you can see right here inventory Surged by 27% compared to January Whereas in April it'll increase by 1% And of course the reason why inventory Absol skyrocketed in 2022 was due to the fact that mortgage Rates on average doubled from January to September of
2022 and that caused home sales to Absolutely nose dive in contrast the Number of newly listed houses started to Decrease big time in the last of 2022 so Therefore the growth rate of inventory That we saw in the last half of 2022 was Really due to a pullback in home buying Demand you know a short pullback in home Buying demand due to rates doubling from January to September that year I Mentioning that because um you know even Though we're seeing a sharp increase of Inventory up by 10% so far this year Which of course is much higher compared To what we saw uh two years ago um the Dynamics are drastic different right we Have this higher for longer environment Right now in which rates have been you Know at or above 6% all year whereas in 2022 um uh rates more than doubled in About nine months and of course that Shocked the housing market um but you Know something to follow here um in the Months ahead and I might you know make This a monthly video for you guys Because again I talk about this on the Channel all the time even though we have Far fewer house for sale right now Compared to to preo levels uh it doesn't Mean that home prices can't decrease and That's exactly what we saw in 2022 where inventory did not even get Close to uh pre-pandemic levels but Despite that home prices absolutely
Corrected in the last half of the year Now speaking of that here is my own Analysis of the National associat rter Data regarding the national meeting home Sold price so in January of 2022 we're Up by 15 . 3% let me just zoom in for You guys up by 15.3% then in February we're up by 15.6 then it started decrease though Right going to 14 it increased in May But then it started decreasing Again by the time we hit um October of 2022 we were only up by 6.5% about half the gain we saw from uh The previous June that year then once we Hit let me just go back here once we hit November we were up by 4% then we're up By 2% and the numbers got lower and Lower until we hit um March of 2022 the First year-over your decrease since February of 2012 and again that was due To the growth rate of inventory Inventory absolutely skyrocketed um from The lows we saw in February at around uh 63,000 this is according to data from Redf Fin and by the time we hit the um End of um August we're at $979,000 a sharp increase of inventory Which absolutely um corrected the Housing market back then so I'd love to Hear from you guys what do you guys Think about today's video and the fact That we have uh 63% more House of sale Compared to January this year compared
To the average in 2017 through 2019 uh back then the growth rate was Actually less than 7% now we're up by 10% so far this year this is something I'm definitely going to follow closely Here because again in my opinion we Should be following the growth rate of Inventory not keep to this narrative Regarding we have far fewer houses Compared to the average preco levels but What do you guys think about my Annalysis here something I really hope You guys watch today's video because um I was absolutely shocked by these Numbers here and if this number starts To increase um big time uh we could be In a different um place by the end of The year this year uh but please leave Me a com below with your thoughts Regarding this analysis if you guys got Any value of today's video then please Like button if great appreciate that of Course I appreciate you hope you guys Have an awesome day and look forward to Seeing you on the next video A
