Home Sales Slump from 7% Rates

And welcome back the housing market is Showing some signs of Sing Down thanks To a new report from the National Association Realtors for the month of March they show that sales decreased Compared to one month ago uh this March And also compared to one year ago as Well meanwhile there's 14% more house For sale compared to March of 2023 I have a lot to share in today's Video by the way so let's go AE and Dive Right In This was posted um last week on April 18th it says this is from the National Association rors it says Existing home sales slipped in March According to them among the four major US regions sales decrease in the midwest The South and the west but increase in The Northeast for the first time since November of 2023 year fore though all these four Major regions decrease from March of 2023 so here's a snapshot looking that Uh their seasonally adjusted annualized Rate of home sales for this March was at 4,190 this basically means that the Current sales pays for March at least Multiply that by 12 do a seasonal Adjustment and you get to 4.19 million that's a decrease on a year Year- basis and also compared to one Month ago what's wild about this as well Is that this is about 2 million less Home sales compared to 2021 1 and 2021

We had 6.12 million for the entire year And that was a 15-year high so we have 2 Million less compared to 2021 absolutely Crazy um also like I mentioned for these Regions Northeast the Midwest the South And the West all decrease on a year-year Basis the biggest decrease was actually In the South down by 5% whereas the only Region that posted a gain compared to February was a Northeast up by 4.2% and big decreases in the South as Well as the west but wait there's more Because I want to share my own analysis Of their data here um and going back to Uh the 1990s by the way so one thing to Keep in mind when talking about any Metric that has to do with a close home Sale this is you know the the current Sales space this on March and also uh The median so price that was what our Housing market was like approximately 1 And two months ago when the buyer got Their offer accepted because once you Get your offer accepted normally you get Your keys to your house or the house Becomes yours in approximately 30 to About 60 days so in any case I mention That because closed home sales for the Month of March are mostly for purchase Contracts being signed in other words Sellers accepting offers from home Buyers um back in uh January when the Average 30-year fix rate for the entire Month of January was at at

6.6% that's according to Freddy Mech and Also in February when rates were at 6.8% so looking at sales this March this Really has to do with rates back in January and February and so far in April Um average 3year fix rates have been at Or above 7% um ever since uh April 1st This year and in fact they have been Ranging from uh 7 to 7.5% and this will likely limit the Number of close home sales in the near Term also at 4.19 million this is According to investing.com this is in Line with the streets forecast at 4.2 Million but this is U much lower Compared to February's uh sales Pace at Just under 4.4 million quite a bit lower Than marches at 4.19 million now going Back to this um fun Excel spreadsheet Here have a ant on my computer how that Happen anyways um The uh decrease compared to February in Seasonally adjusted close home sales was Down by 4.3% this is quite the reversal compared To February so here's why I said had had To say back in February so from January To February and keep in mind these are Seasonally adjusted uh sales increased By whopping 99.5% whereas this March they decreased By 4.3% and back back in February that 99.5% month-to-month increase beat the

Street's forecast by a long shot because The street was forcasting for a 1.3% decrease not a 99.5% increase so Quite a turnaround compared to a February uh right now also this uh 4.3% uh decrease is the first monthly Decrease since December last year all Right let's talk about the year- of- Your changes in sales because that fell Again by 3.7% um it's still down on a year-year Basis but it's not nearly as bad as what Happened one year ago in March of 2023 Compared to March of 2022 sales tanked by 23.6% so overall we have a very low Number of close home sales uh right now Um this uh year- ofe decrease by the way Is now marking the 32nd consecutive month in which home Sales were flat or down on a year basis We're approaching nearly 3 years of year Decreases in fact the last time we saw a Increase in home sales on a year- ofe Basis was way back in July 20121 and by the way I should have Mentioned this but uh the National Association rors looks at sales of Single family houses Town Homes condos And co-ops um in these figures here um Also they look at these figures for home Sales as well any case um something I Added in this um uh video I've been Making this a similar video for gosh

Three years probably now U but looking At the current sales Pace this March Compared to March of 2019 um sales have decreased by 20% so Again a low number of close home sales On top of that world Downey whopping 31% Compared to March of 20 21 and again Back in 2021 for the year as a whole we Had a 15-year high in close home sales So we're down compared to pre-co and We're way down compared to the peak uh Back in 21 all right let's go back to Nar's announcement here and talk about Inventory numbers but then we'll talk About um home prices based on the Meeting so price Nationwide and also for Each of the four major US regions and Have a lot to share regarding that as Well uh and for whatever reason the National Association rors does not Provide provides very limited amount of Um analytics regarding home prices so in Any case total house inventory which in My opinion um Nar looks at houses Actually for sale plus pending home Sales because our figures regarding Inventory tend to be a lot higher Compared to other sources according to Redin and also alos research.com any Case looking at for the month of March There's 1.1 1 1 million units for sale That's up by 4.7% compared to the Previous month and up a whopping 14.4% from one year ago um also the

Month supply is at 3.2 months this is up From 2.9 months in February and also up From 2.7 months from 12 months ago and You see that right here inventory uh Increase um by 14. 4% year-over a year 1 Year ago we're at 970,000 now we're just Over 1.1 million also the month supply At 3.2 months increased by double digits Compared to the previous month and also Increased by whopping 18.5% from March of 2023 all right going Back to Nars press release let's talk About home prices and there's only two Sentences here so I'm going to provide a Lot more information for you guys by the Way if you guys are getting any value Out of this video please hit like button Appreciate that anyways the Medan Existing home price on a national level For all housing types in March was $393,500 an increase of 4.8% compared to the previous year all Four US regions recorded gains in prices And here's a chart showing just that uh Huge increases in the medium so price in The Northeast up by 99.9% compared to the South only Increasing by 3 .4% uh again gains in the midwest as Well as the West as well and something To keep in mind here is that the gains In prices and I'm talking about prices I'm talking about the med and so price Uh the gains in prices um is also due to

An increase in sales for over 750,000 and also for a decrease in sales In the more affordable range so I'm Getting at here is that the Mixon sales Is also likely inflating some of these Figures I'm sharing in today's video and I'll share more of that here later in The video first I want to share uh this With you guys as well this is based on My own analysis of Nars data I pulled Their uh meeting sole price on a National level and also the dates but Everything else is my own analysis any Case looking at uh the peak which was The all-time record highs um for um Prices set back in June of 2022 that was Just under $414,000 Compared to the trough which was in January of 2023 we're at 361,000 that was um 2022 is correction Right a decrease in prices down by 133% however because home prices have Been increasing ever since then more or Less uh in fact they have increased by 9% um from January of 2023 to March of 2024 a gain of 9% % so therefore the Meean US home sold price is only down by 5% compared to the peak compared to the 13% correction we saw in 2022 um also we're only $20,000 away From getting to all-time record highs uh Again which is set back in June of 2022 So to summarize that because um prices

Have increased by 9% compared to the Trough we're only down by 5% compared to The alltime record highs that was set Back in 2022 something I found to be uh Really interesting as well is that for March at 3935 that is a 7mon high which is Seasonal though right because home Prices tend to increase especially in The spring home buy season um and also Um the tend increase compared to the Winter months of course as well uh this Is much better than the nearly threeyear Low though uh for the US meeting sale Price for new houses there's quite this Tonomy in our US housing market right Existing houses for the resale Market um Uh prices uh U at a 7mon high whereas Home sold prices for new home Construction at nearly a 3year low now Don't take my word for it here is our Good uncle Fred and the source here is The US C BR the most recent data we have From them is February of 2024 when the mediate sales price is at 4,500 the all-time record highs was set Back in October of 2022 at nearly $497,000 that's a decrease of 19% Compared to the all-time record highs Whereas the resale Market of existing Houses are only down by 5% all right Let's talk about the changes compared to 1 month ago and also from one year ago And how that compares to years past

Going back to 20 0 so the change in um Home prices from February through March This year is a gain of 2.5% that's only the second Month-to-month increase since June of 2023 also it's lower than the 3.2% gain We saw from March last year so March Last year we saw an increase of the Meean so price up by 3.2% whereas this March again gain of 2.5% additionally this gain of 2.5% this March is lower than the Historical average going back to 2010 because based on my nerdy Excel Formula here the average March Month-to-month change that's a change From February to March each and every Year going back to 2010 is a gain of 4.2% whereas this March it only Increased by 2.5% in regards to the Year- ofe changes that increase Again by 4.8% that marked the ninth straight Month of yearly gains also at this time Last year home prices absolutely taint Uh so for example back in March last Year um prices decreased by 1.1% maybe They didn't a tank per se but that was The first time we saw a decrease in the Meeting us so price since way back in February of 2012 so so quite a Turnaround compared to a year ago last Year prices down by 1.1% this year up by 4.8% now having said that that gain uh

This March is lower than historical Averages going back to 2010 because the Average March year-over-year change Going back to 2010 is a gain of 6% Whereas this year it only increase by 4.8% but wait there's more because I Want to share how um the numbers here Compares to years past so going back to March of 2022 two years ago the uh Medan Sold price increased by 4% so barely Squeaking out a gain over the past two Years and that's likely due to that 133% Decrease we saw in the second half of 2022 any case compared to 2021 we're up a by 19% from four years Ago March of 2020 up a whopping 40% and From 5 years ago up a whopping 52% absolutely insane um something I Added here as well just for fun is that Back in March of 2008 compared to March Of 2009 prices taint by 15% whereas this year it increased by 4.8% so if you guys want to see home Prices absolutely tank like we saw um Right during the Great Recession of Course we have a long ways to go all Right let's get back to nar's article Here let's talk about first-time home Buyers so they were responsible for 32% Of all sales in March up from 26% in February and up from 20% from March of 2023 all cash sales a lot of people ask Ask me about all cash buyers in the

Greater Sacrament area our share of cash Buyers is around 18% whereas on a National level it's at 28% that's down from February but still Up slightly from one year ago also Individual investors or second home Buyers who make up a lot of cash sales Purchase 15% of all houses in March down From 21% in February and 177% from March Of 2023 meanwhile distress home sales Which are foreclosures and short sales Virtually non-existent and has been for Several years now uh we're only at 2% of All home sales were distress sales all Right before we wrap this video up um I Want to share a few slides with you guys Also from uh the National Association Rors and this is a look at existing home Sales or home prices uh from one year Ago again this March up by 4.8% whereas A year ago we were down by 1% the first Time we saw a decrease on a year year Basis since 2012 what I found to be interesting Though is that we're seeing this year- Of your increase gaining momentum right So in uh December last year an increase Of 4.1% the following month increasing Again and then increasing once again in Uh February so uh we are up um compared To a year ago but where the momentum is Kind of losing velocity uh per se also Here's a look at um home sales this March by region so 45% of all home sales

This March came from the south Midwest At 24% the Northeast at 12% the West Made up 19% of all sales uh on a National level uh now something here Keep in mind 45% of all home sales this March were in the range of 250 to 500,000 but we saw a 7% share in the Range of $750 to $1 million now here's What it makes sense here regarding the Mix and sales right so here is the Percent change in Sal sales from a year Ago by price range so sales that sold For less than $100,000 giant decrease of 22% 100,000 to 250 down by 16% 250 to 500 down by 88.1% and again keep in mind the US Medi Sold price approximately at $394,000 um which is likely being Inflated due to a mix in sales what I Mean by that is a huge increase in sales For over $1 million compared to Decreases for less than $500,000 so in the range of $750 to $1 Million an increase of 5% 1 million plus Giant increase of 14% so because we're Seeing more sales for over 750,000 and less sales for less than That that is inflating the overall us Median home sold price And with that said if you guys got any Value out today's video whatsoever then Please hit like button I great Appreciate that of course I appreciate You hope you guys have an awesome day

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