Home sales of existing houses decreased To nearly a 13-year low this August Which is quite remarkable given that Market conditions have actually improved For home buyers so for example home Prices have decreased for the past two Consecutive months mortgage rates are Very close to a 1 and a half year low And there's over 20% more houses for Sale this August compared to one year Ago but despite these improvements home Sales actually decrease this August in Today's video I'm going to share my own Analysis of n's data to share exactly What's happening right now to the US Housing market please subscribe to my YouTube channel these videos take me Hours to make and I appreciate all the Support you guys have given me um over The years and of course I'll definitely Keep a posted with latest developments Regarding what's happening right now With the US housing market to give you Guys some insights regarding you know Should you be buying or selling a house Right now so thank you much for doing That I have a lot to share and let's Begin the first chart I want to share With you guys is from Freddy Mack Looking at the average 30-year fix rate Uh for a mortgage of course so today's Video is based on data from Neer or the National associat rors for the month of August just posted today by the way
Which is September 19th but keep in mind Any figure I'm mentioning in today's Video is based on a closed home sale for August which is really what the housing Market was like back in late June and July when the home buyer got the offer Accepted and what happened then the Average 30 year fix rate uh in June Decreased from 7.06% down to 6.92% then it decreased further in July Down slightly to 6.85% so rates uh decrease from uh the Highs of course we saw last year back in October but they have been decreasing This year ever since really June as well Now what I am very curious I'm I'm going To mention this later on the video is How this decrease in rates we've been Seeing um since then is going to impact Our housing market of course as well in Any case I want to share n's uh price Relase regarding their housing market Stats for the month of August and of Course I have a lot more to share Regarding uh what they had to say here Uh based on my own analysis of their Data it says existing home sales fell in August according to n uh three out of The four major US regions posted sale Decreases while the Midwest was Unchanged on a year- basis all uh four Major regions except for one fell Compared to one year ago so total
Existing home sales which basically Excludes uh multif Family Properties and Also excluding brand new home Construction that's an existing house a House that in which someone bought a new Years ago of course and it's being Sailed bu being sold on the resale Market so total existing home sales Which are completed transactions that Include single F houses Town Homes Condos and co-ops that decreased by 2.5% Compared to the previous month which of Course was July and of course it Decreased on a year-year basis down by 4.2% according to their Chief Economist Lawrence y here's what they had to say Home sales were disappointing yet again In August but the recent development of Lower rates coupled with increasing Inventory is a powerful combination that Will provide the environment for sales To move higher uh in future months I Have more to share regarding that Because I have some thoughts regarding Um what has to happen in order to see Home sales increase he says here the Home buying process from the initial Search you're starting to look at House Of for sale to getting your keys to House or the finalized transaction Typically takes several months that's Absolutely true buyers look to buy a House they contact a loan officer such As myself or Jim Black um and um they
Get pre-approved and then we set set you Up with a search look at houses you Might have to place multiple offers and Then you get your keer house Approximately 30 days after you get your Offer accepted so the sales process can Be uh fairly lengthy depending on how Long it takes you to do all those things Having said that here's a chart uh from Neer looking at sales and by the way When I'm talking about sales I'm talking About the seasonally adjusted and also The annualized figure seasonally Adjusted and annualized rate so that's Basically the current sales Pace as of August um was at 3.86 million that was Down by 2.5% um from July and down by 4.2% year-over-year now I highlighted The areas in which home sales did not Decrease but they were flat so on a Month-to-month basis they were flat in The midwest but decreased in all these Other regions the biggest decrease was Actually in the South down by 3.9% uh in contrast on a year-over-year Basis they were flat in the Northeast But again we saw big decreases in the South down by 6% and of course these Other three major regions the Midwest South and west all decreased compared to One year ago but the smallest decline Was actually in the west which of course Is where I work as a rate agent here in The greater segment area so these are
All figures that are all seasonally Adusted they're also analized but here Um on the right side this section right Here is not seasonally adjusted these Are the actual number of home sales each And every month um going back to August 2023 now here's what caught my attention Though because here's the Year date Figure so this is January through August This year there's 2,739 th000 um closed transactions so Far this year now that may sound like a Lot but have a look at this we're Basically on track to have fewer hope Home sales this year compared to last Year so at this time last year there was 2.81 Million home sales so basically 2, 810,000 home sales compared to 2,739 th000 so far this year therefore We're on track to basically drop to a Three decade low this year given that 20023 saw the fewest amount of close Home sales since the year of 1995 Absolutely insane all right let's have a Look at my own analysis of neer's data And by the way if you guys want access To these two columns which is the date And the sales Pace Pace uh through 1989 We going back to 1989 you have to pay a Whopping $1,500 in order to get access To this information but because I am a Member of the National Association rors And they actually gave me permission Years ago to share this with you guys
Then I can share my own analysis of Their de so in any case the most recent Trends we have from them of course is August um here's my own take regarding This so housing affordability has Improved as home prices and rates have Been decreasing close home sales in August were mostly for offers being Accepted in June and of course in July As well and like I mentioned since then Rates have decreased further to the low 6% range to basically the lowest levels Uh since uh about a year and a half ago In my personal opinion sales will remain Low unless affordability improves Further uh please leave me a comment Below regarding that do you guys think That we have to have affordability Improveed in order to see home sales uh Increase further uh please let me know Your thoughts regarding that so again The sales Pace was uh just under 3.9 Million this August this pace fell to The lowest level since October of 2023 back then we had had 3.85 million Sales that was the sales Pace now we're At 3.86 million now here's a kicker Though because back in October last year At 3.85 million that was a 13year low The lowest level since October of 2010 so we're basically only about 10,000 um shy of the 13-year low that Was set back in October last year also August reading of 3.86 million was
Slightly below the streets forecast Which call for 3.92 million sales and like I mentioned We're basically on track to have fewer Home sales this year than last year Which is absolutely mind-blowing because Last year we had a 28-year low in sales On a national level um like I mentioned Though uh rates have been decreasing so Will home buyers come off the sidelines Or not so much so to summarize this Despite a slight decrease in rates in June and July us home sales fell to Nearly a 13-year low this is due to high Home prices affordability constraints of Course home buyers waiting for Conditions to improve further uh I Believe a lot of home buyers want to see Home prices decrease the most but of Course some home buyers want to see Rates also fall as well this decline in Sales is also quite remarkable given That there's approximately 23% more houses sale Nationwide compared To 12 months ago so in other words sales Decrease even though marketing Conditions have been improving um given The uh decrease in rates prices and of Course the increase in the amount of Houses for sale now speaking of that Sales actually decrease again down by 2.5% compared to the previous month but Look at um July back in July that was The first increase since February this
Year so quite the turnaround now we went From a 1.5% gain now to a 2.5% decrease This August and again a friendly Reminder these are all seasonally Adjusted numbers which is makes it much Easier to compare month-to-month changes Because it takes in consideration um Seasonal trends that we see this time of Year looking at the year VI changes uh It decreased by 4.2% so of course is still down compared To one year ago but not nearly as bad as What happened one year ago back in August of 2023 compared to August of 2022 sales taint down by 15.5% whereas this year we're down by 4.2% this by the way though does Mark The 37th consecutive month in which Sales were down or flat compared to the Previous year in other words we Basically have three years of decreases The last time that sales increased year Year was way back in July of 2021 also just kind of share how low These figures are sales so far this year I I should say this August compared to August of 2019 decreased down by 29% so We basically have 30% fewer home sales Compared to pre-co levels also compared To the highs we saw back in 2021 sales are down by 36% all right let's get back to n's uh Press release let's talk about inventory Numbers and then we'll go over a lot of
Trends we're seeing right now regarding Home prices so total house inventory at The end of August was at 1,350,000 units um these figures from Neer I believe include some pending home Sales or um all penny home sales because Their figures tend to be a lot higher Compared to other sources such as Realtor.com redin and alos research.com But in any case at 1.35 million units That's up by only 7% compared to the Previous month uh but was up by 22.7% year-over-year the unsold Inventory index or the month supply is At 4.2 months up from the 4.1 months Last month and up from the 3.3 months we Saw 12 months ago but of course I have a Lot more to share regarding what's Happening right now uh regarding Inventory levels so again these are the Figures I pulled from uh n Uh 1,350,000 the month supply at 4.2 Months at 1,350,000 that's the highest amount Since October of 2020 so in other words we have the Highest amount of houses for sale Nationwide going back to 2020 so Basically a 4year high very close to That these figures are also not seasonly Injested though so inventory tends to Peak around midyear which is around this Time of year so let's see in the coming Months if inventory has already peaked
Looking at data from redon for example Um based on their data they showed that Inventory peaked in July but so far in August according to Neer inventory is Still increasing but the gains are Basically losing momentum also even Though inventory is close to a 4-year High right now there's still Approximately 26% fewer house for sale Compared to August of 2019 so in other Words inventory is improving because We're up by 23% from last year uh but we Have a long ways to go in order to get To a more normal housing market in which We have a normal amount of hous sale Nationwide so for example back in August Of 2019 we had 1,830 th000 homes for sale but this year Just under 1.4 million when looking at The month supply right now at 4 two Months that's the highest levels going All the way back until May of 2020 but it is on par with preco levels So for example the average of August 2017 18 and 19 was also a 4.2 month Supply so even though we have far fewer Houses for sale right now compared to um Preo levels the month supply is on par With those uh levels here's also Something I want to share with you guys As well um the increase of inventory so Far this year this is January through August this year inventory has increased By
34% uh look at what happened last year It only increase by 12% during the same Time frame January through August Compared to the 34% we're seeing this Year so inventory levels right now are Increasing much faster than last year But look at 2022 which of course was last time we Saw a correction in in home price and Home sales as well because during the Same time frame January through August That year inventory searched by 51% compared to the 34% gain we're Seeing so far this year so my take on This is this right here so far this year January through August which is Basically year-to dat figures inventory Is growing twice as fast as a scene time Frame in 2017 through 2019 so in other words we're up by 34% So far this year compared to a gain of Only 177% in 2017 through 19 but it's Not Rising nearly as fast as the gains We saw back in 2022 here's my take we likely won't see A similar sharp correction in home Prices like we saw in 2022 the reason Why we saw a sharp correction in 2022 Was because um inventory and rates Double In less than 12 months this year of Course we have a lot of challenges but We don't we're not seeing that same Environment in which inventory is
Actually skyrocketing however though Given the rise of housing Supply I Expect home price growth to slow down Which is exactly what I said in my Previous video I posted one month ago And of course I'll keep you updated as More data comes in all right let's Change gears slightly here and talk About home prices based on the median Sold price here is one small paragraph Or one sentence really from Neer and I Have a lot more shared so it says here The meeting existing home sold price for All housing types in August was just Under 417,000 up by 3.1% from one year ago all four US Regions posted price Increases I would say asterisk compared To one year ago and that's this right Here this August 46,700 up by 3.1% year-over-year the biggest gains Are actually in the Northeast up by 7.7% then we have the Midwest up by 3.8 the West up by 2.2 and the South Increasing by only 1.6% let's have a look at my own Analysis of their data though because at Uh $416,500 that is a thre Monon low However though these figures based on Home prices are not seasonly adjusted so In other words we're seeing a seasonal Decrease in home prices right now and of
Course don't take my word for it I'll Share some data regarding that so home Prices based on the median so price fell By 1.4% compared to July this is entirely Normal to see uh the median sale price Decrease this time of year and the Decline is actually on par with a long R Average going back to 2010 so this year it decreased by 1.4% Compared to to July but the long run Average based on my nerdy Excel formula There which this takes me so long to do Uh is a decrease of 1.1% so basically this uh decline of 1.4% is a seasonal decrease we're seeing Right now now here's the difference Though because when looking at the year VI change it kind of paints a different Scenario so home prices have increased By 3.1% compared to August of 20 23 that Marks the smallest increase since September of 2023 and on top of that about half the Gains we should be seeing this time of Year so for example it increased by 3.1% This year but the long run average going All the way back until 2010 is an Increase of 6.2% so just taking a step back here the Month-to-month decrease down by 1.5 Was normal looking at historical Trends But the year change is basically half
That of what we should be seeing during This time of year but wait there's more Looking at I mean this is crazy to see These prices here it's just laughable Because I mean home prices have Increased so much and I understand if You guys you know want to buy a house it Is extremely challenging uh due to um Elevated home prices to say the least I Mean at uh 417,000 we're basically $10,000 shy of the alltime record highs That was set back in June this year just 2 months ago any case the increase in Prices uh Rose by 6% uh compared to August of 2022 the gains compared to three years Ago Rose by 15% four years ago we're up by 34% and 5 Years ago looking at preco levels back In August of 2019 a giant increase up by 49% um also just for kind of fun to Share some comparison sake regarding What's happening right now compared to The Great Recession uh from August 08 Through August 2009 we saw a decline of 133% whereas this year we saw a gain of 3.1% one more thing I want to mention Regarding um home prices as well is that We're not seeing this giant surge of Multi-million dollar properties that are Selling which was influencing overall The medi sale price in other words what I mean is that if you have a lot of Let's just say you know million doll
Properties that sell uh Nationwide for a Particular month and a lack of houses Selling in the more affordable range That skews the meeting sale price on a National level right um but right now That kind of has been reversed so I want To share this with you guys this is a Percent chance in home sales compared to One year ago so sales in the range of 750,000 to $1 million Nationwide only Increased by 4.7% houses that sold for over $1 Million increased by only 7.9% in contrast sales for $500,000 or Less actually decreased compared to the Previous year so we're seeing gains of More expensive properties but not nearly As high compared to the spring home bind Season this year so for example it look Back in April this year and back then Sales over $1 million actually Skyrocketed it Rose by uh about 40% Compared to April of 2023 and sales in the range of $750 to $1 million Rose by staggering 24% Compared to the small gains of less than 10% we're seeing this August so in other Words the growth rate of more expensive Properties um that we're seeing right Now is no longer supporting the growth Rate and overall the median sale price On a national level all right going back To neer's uh price release it says Firsttime home buyers were responsible
For only 26% of all home sales in August Matching the all-time record low that Was last seen in November of 2021 so we basically have a share of Firsttime home buyers at record low Levels right now that is down from the Uh 29% that we saw both in July July This year and August of last year all Cash sales account for 26% of all Transactions in August that's down Slightly from the 27% we saw last year And 1 month ago also distress home sales Which are defined by foreclosures or Short sales uh were basically Non-existent at 1% of all sales uh it Was paid at around 2% for several months Now we're down to 1% so lack of Foreclosures uh that are being sold Right now and with that said please Comment below your biggest takeaways From today's video also if you guys want A real estate agent referral uh please Check out my website which is real Estate teamind er.com I'll provide a Link in the video description below Please like And subscribe of course Share any of my videos on your social Media or with your friends I really Appreciate all the support hope you guys Have an awesome day and look forward to Seeing you on the next video [Music]
