If the United States government started To acquire Bitcoin likely we're going to See Russia want to compete we're going To see China want to compete we're going To see all these other countries around The world that are going to start Competing to accumulate Bitcoin as part Of a strategic Reserve they're not Buying it for a trade they're not trying To make a quick Buck they're buying it To accumulate it to store it as a Reserve and long-term hold and so with That I think that the Bitcoin would be Accumulated it could drive tremendous Performance Bitcoin is being drained From exchanges why black rock continues To acquire Bitcoin and mass why Donald Trump has major crypto plans for the US What comes next out of all of this we Need answers Brian Dixon CEO of off the Chain Capital joins us this man is an Industry expert I was surprised by some Of the answers he gives in this Interview this is a video that you do Not want to miss smash the like button Let's start here Bitcoin reserves on Exchanges hit a new multi-year low Yesterday over 1 billion worth of Bitcoin left exchanges in 7 Days in fact We have not seen Bitcoin exchange Reserve levels this low since almost 2018 Brian Dixon is all hell breaking Loose in Bitcoin markets right Now I would not say that at all I think
There's a couple things you want to look At in regards to bitcoin leaving Exchanges one would be is that flowing Into self- custody because people are Looking to become more long long-term Holders I would say that's a good sign Uh another thing is where is the Bitcoin Actually going is it flowing from a hot Wallet in an exchange to a trust company Or a qualified custodian for their own Offline Cold Storage so you really have To pay attention to where that Bitcoin Is Flowing to develop a better analysis Of what's happening but I would not say That all hell is breaking loose as of Today all hell breaking loose not Necessarily a bad thing but I'm glad That you're putting our minds at ease so Like you know the Bitcoin is is leaving Exchanges we're not sure exact where It's going is this a bullish like is the Takeaway from this bullish or Non-consequential or or how do you think About it um so I think it depends on Where it's going right so if it's going Into self- custody I would view that as More of a long-term hold which I would Say is a bullish indicator because it's Actually going to shrink Supply which Could create more volatility and Potential price appreciation with a Limited Supply if more people are Wanting to enter the Bitcoin Market Because that could create a narrative
Around scarcity in addition to that we Saw some stuff with binance last week Where there were some issues around some Of the Palestinian accounts and I know There were some protest around binance Because of this and we started to see Some people actually remove Bitcoin from Binance so whether they were moving that To a different exchange or they were Moving that into self- custody I think That's probably just some short-term Issues that they're working through but That is another reason why we may have Seen some outflows over the last seven Days Brian let's zoom out a little bit You have a lot of experience in markets In the crypto Market in Tech this is not Your first rodeo what are your big Picture macro thoughts for the rest of 2024 and going into 2025 so if we look at Bitcoin Specifically historically the best time To be allocated to the asset is the six Months before the Bitcoin having and Then 12 to 18 months post Bitcoin having Now the most recent Bitcoin having Occurred in April 19th of this year so We're right in that sweet spot right now And I think in terms of price movement It's pretty standard for what we've seen Historically in terms of percentage Increases and decreases over time I Would really anticipate that the Remainder of this year into the first
Half of 2025 we should really see some Exciting things happen and one of the Reasons I believe that is around the Bitcoin ETFs so we've seen a tremendous Inflow since those were launched in February of this year but it's my Opinion that we really haven't seen the Largest allocations to the Bitcoin ETF Yet that we will see in time and the Reason I think that is because the Biggest investor in the world the Foundations the pension plans The Sovereign wealth funds these investors Have very long due diligence timelines And it may take 12 months of due Diligence for them to research it get it Past their investment committee educate Their clients Etc before they end up Allocating so I think maybe later this Year into early 2025 is when we'll Really start to see some very large Allocations of the Bitcoin ETFs because These large investors will have made it Through their investment process in Addition to that is a general Mac Outlook I believe the election in the United States will have a lot to do with What we see happen with markets over the Course of the next year right now we Have President Trump and recently RFK Jr That stepped aside to endorse president Trump I believe that would be very Favorable for the digital asset Ecosystem if Trump is ultimately elected
Whereas the Harris Administration has Been historically very hostile towards The crypto sector so you know albe it a Change in stance from the Harris Administration which it doesn't look Like that's happening that hostility may Continue into presidency if she's Ultimately elected so I think people Really have to pay attention to that as Well so Donald Trump claims he is the The Bitcoin president if Donald Trump Gets elected do you think that's orders Of magnitude better for the crypto Industry I believe so because you know Back in 2020 Donald Trump was not very Pro Bitcoin but recently he's changed His stance I think he's gotten much more Integrated with the digital asset Community and is receiving much better Feedback education and understanding of This new technology and asset class and We don't want entrepreneurs in the space To move to other jurisdictions because We're going to lose jobs in the United States because of that and I think he's Starting to understand that as well that With this emerging technology sector he Wants to keep those jobs on us soil and With that I think he's creating much More Pro Bitcoin stances what we saw in Nashville this year at the Bitcoin Conference Donald Trump noted that if Elected he would create a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve what we know today is
That that the Department of Justice has Around 200,000 Bitcoin in its possession That it has seized through illicit Activity and other issues online and Donald Trump noted that he may take that 200,000 Bitcoin and move it from the doj To the Department of Treasury and I Think that would be the initial Stockpile in the US government could Continue to build from there but Somebody who really understands Bitcoin Is RFK Jr and you know his speech at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville this Year was very specific around what he Wanted to do and now that he is actually In yours Trump and it's looking like They could potentially work together Ultimately if Trump is elected I would Really look at RFK Jr as somebody that Provided incredible valuable feedback For the digital asset ecosystem and how That could be integrated in the US Financial sector let me ask you about This Brian the question is ultimately Your price Outlook but let me set it up Like this to me I think Bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2025 to me I think that's Obvious nobody can predict the future Anything can happen but you mentioned Some of the things we have Fed rate Cuts We have the US election we have a Potential Bitcoin President we have Black rock Bitcoin ETFs in general Crypto being institutionalized not to
Mention just general use Case utility Revenue and usership in the crypto Industry so my question to you is if you Had to give your best guess does Bitcoin Clear $130,000 in 2025 above or below in 2025 I think that would be a floor now If we look at models historically things Like trend line analysis show that Bitcoin should be valued around $150,000 Today but it's not it's trading at you Know close to $100,000 less than that so According to trend line analysis Bitcoin Is very undervalued um if we look at Things like stock to flow three of the Last four times Bitcoin has gone through Its bull cycles it's actually reached Two standard deviations higher than Where that model value indicated it Should be so one standard deviation Higher than the stock to flow model for This current cycle would put Bitcoin at Around a million dollars two standard Viations would put it around $2.3 Million now I'm not going to say it's Going to go to that level but I think The $100,000 to $130,000 price range That you noted to me as a floor I would Project that it's actually going to Reach much higher than that and one very Important thing to consider is Ultimately if we do have somebody like President Trump that's elected and it Happens to be very favorable for the
Digital asset ecosystem we may reach a Point where we could have nation state Adoption and it would have a Geopolitical game theory race that would Play out and what I mean by that is if The United States government started to Acquire Bitcoin likely we're going to See Russia want to compete we're going To see China want to compete we're going To see all these other countries around The world that are going to start Competing to accumulate Bitcoin as part Of a strategic reserve and the benefit Of that is that when a country acquire Something for a strategic Reserve They're not buying it for a trade They're not trying to make a quick Buck They're buying it to accumulate it to Store it as a reserve and long-term hold Like we've done with gold for many many Years and so with that I think that the Bit coin would be accumulated it could Drive tremendous performance and the Projections that we could see from that I think are far beyond what we're even Talking about right now appreciate you Giving us your time today Brian just Have a question or two left as we're Wrapping things up I know that you're Not only bullish on bitcoin but you're Bullish on the whole crypto space would You say and you know like ethereum has An ETF now too are are you more bullish On bitcoin or ethereum nowadays do you
Think ethereum is a better bet than Bitcoin or how do you think about it I Just look at him in two very different Ways so Bitcoin I look at is it's Solving a very specific problem with our Fiat money printing system whereas Ethereum is solving a very different use Case in problem which is you know Digital smart Contracting and ethereum Has a lot of competitors right so you Know ethereum has some challenges right Now it has extremely high gas fees and Then it has things like salana and Binance smart chain and a variety of Other smart Contracting protocols that's Competing against it so what we Ultimately don't know is is ethereum Going to be ask geves in another one of These smart Contracting protocol is Going to be Google it's just too early For us to figure that out ethereum has Obviously gained a tremendous amount of Utility in application and a variety of Different things and it has a huge first Mover advantage and so it may work Through these challenges over time and We could have a variety of smart Contracting platforms that are competing For different use cases and applications It's also possible long term that some Of the digital asset ecosystem could Collapse on top of Bitcoin as new layers Continue to be evolved on top of Bitcoin And that's just too early for us to
Figure out but I do think bitcoin's use Case case I don't think really any other Digital asset protocol is competing with Bitcoin in terms of trying to have this Replacement to States controlling the Money supply and having the opportunity For full sovereignty over a digital Monetary system and I don't think Anything else is really trying to Because Bitcoin has the user adoption it Has the technology it's the most secure Network what I actually think could be An interesting thing long term is how Bitcoin and other digital asset chains Could really interact with each other so For example what happens if you have a Smart Contracting platform like ethereum But it anchors its transactions in Bitcoins blockchain for security Purposes so it can solve an application Outside the scope of what Bitcoin may be Built for today but anchor in the Security network of Bitcoin and I think We'll see some really interesting new Protocols and applications that get Developed with that in mind so it sounds Like the answer is Bitcoin you you think Bitcoin is still still the smart play I Think Bitcoin as of today is still the Smart play I think it'll continue to be The smart play for many years to come if I would look at allocations I would say From a digital asset perspective Investors should look at Bitcoin as a
Bulk of their allocation and the Remaining ecosystem should be treated Like a venture investment at this point In time Brian appreciate you sharing This Alpha with us today uh I'm Ain Ofcoin daily I encourage everybody to go Follow Brian and uh please you know Brian give us final thoughts feel free To plug yourself your company but just Final thoughts Absol thanks so much for Having me today I really appreciate it I Think the second half of this year into Early 2025 is going to be very exciting For the digital asset Universe at off The chain Capital if anyone's interested In learning more about us we're a deep Discount value style investment firm in The blockchain space so we're looking For unique ways to acquire a dollars Worth of blockchain assets for 50 cents And so if you want to learn more about Us please go to offthe chain. Capal or Please feel free to follow me on Twitter At Brian dixon6 thanks Brian thank you
