Data Centers and Energy with Phil Deutch | E2015

Data Centers and Energy with Phil Deutch | E2015
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When you have your electricity bill Let's say it's 100 bucks only 25 bucks Of that is from the generation Source The rest is the wires to get it to you But electricity in Texas is a good Example might cost you 3 cents a Kilowatt hour at a cool winter day in The summer that can jump to almost $1,000 kilowatt hour to the utility they Don't pass it through but I can't think Of a commodity in the world that goes up 300X in a day no 3,00 th000 exit a day Just GameStop right just GameStop right Right the thing I think I'm close to Being able to say is I think in our Children's lifetime electricity be close To being free wow this week in startups Is brought to you by Squarespace turn Your idea into a new website go to Squarespace.com twist for a free trial When you're ready to launch use offer Code twist to save 10% off your first Purchase of a website or domain vanta Compliance and security shouldn't be a Deal breaker for startups to win new Business vanta makes it easy for Companies to get a sock to report fast Twist listeners can get $1,000 off for a Limited time at V.com twist and open phone create Business phone numbers for you and your Team that work through an app on your Smartphone or desktop twist listeners Can get an extra 20% off any plan for

Your first 6 months at open phone.com Twist hey hey everybody Alex here and I Have a treat for you today we have the Very first talk from our liquidity Summit 2024 Phil de a partner over at NGP Energy Partners kicked things off with a Look at the domestic energy industry now If you've been watching the news at all You know that Microsoft is currently Working to actually get a nuclear power Plant turned back on just so it can help Power its data centers with low carbon Energy so this is an enormous topic if We're going to see open Ai and anthropic And all the other model companies become What we hope they will we're going to Need a lot more power where is it going To come from what are the challenges and Opportunities there well Phil knows and Now you are about to we're going to Start off with a bang today the two most Important topics on everybody's mind are Ai and energy and and they and they Dovetail together quite nicely I was Able to meet Bill deuts through our Group he's on the Board of chamat Social Capital partners and one of the most Intelligent cons individuals uh also Incredibly generous um but he's so quiet About it you wouldn't know that but he Frequently sends me emails explaining Things I got right things I got wrong You know little bits of coaching here on

The margins but it doesn't feel like That it feels more like having a big Brother so he's with NGP energy Capital He's going to talk today about these Incredible opportunities and energy Created by explosive data center growth A first principal approach please Welcome my bestie bill deuts First of all I want to thank uh Jason And the liquidity team I think the Innovation enthusiasm originality is Just wonderful and infectious and I just Want to give a hand Jackie thank you for Everything you guys have done it's great Thing second I do want as an organizing Principle the day is organized by Intelligence um you'll start with me at The top the most intelligence and you'll Finish with the uh besties at the end of The day so it' be a slow road down Jackie offered to coach me and I said What do I need coaching for I've been Doing this for a long time and she said Well Phil I think you should introduce Yourself and say who you are and what Your talks about and I said geez that Sounds like a pretty good idea so I'm Going to listen to Jackie as Jason said My name is Phil do a partner at NGP I've Been investing in the energy transition For 30 years with goes to show you how Bad I've been at it since we're still at It during that period of time we've Invested about a billion dollars across

Non-carbon uh Solutions and products Created multi-billion dollar companies In a regg and TPI and I think are Considered a top qu toop performer if Not the only fun that's been doing it For uh 30 years so over the next 30 Minutes my goal is to teach you more About energy than than saxs and shth Have ever learned in their whole life Okay so you're going to be well prepared For tonight this means that if I lie About anything or I say anything wrong You can't sue let's start off with data Centers okay and this is uh for the People who are talking at the end of the Day this is a picture of a data center This is what they look like there are Lots of things in them but what's most Important and interesting about a data Center is it has very unique power Demands it needs a lot of power it's got A lot of high chips and racks and Servers and things that Sunny knows About and it has to be reliable so it's Not like power can go out for a minute Or two you cannot have that happen in Data center it needs to be feeding those Chips all day long second uh I don't Think this is terribly surprising to you Unless you live under a rock data center Are growing in this world we're going to Spend something like $2 trillion dollar Over the next four years and so data Center growth absolutely explosive now

When we think about energy was talk About later and data centers think about Geographic problems right there's not Just one data center it's something That's across United States so it's Going to be growth that's ubiquitous Geographically when we take the data Center growth that was already projected And we add Artificial Intelligence on Top of it the growth becomes even more Dynamic so here you see a slide that Shows you power consumption of a Google Search versus an inquiry under one of The models that Sunny will talk about Later and it's about a 10x increase for Artificial intelligence so we're asking More and more of our data centers Data Center scalers and producers are not Sitting idly by everyone's trying to Meet this increased power demand they Might do it at the chip level so here You see Nvidia power consumption on the Left or the racks themselves so Everything is beefing up to meet the Increased demands of artificial Intelligence and so when you look at a Absolute chart of data center growth It's enormous 3x increase in the demands That data centers are going to put on Our Energy Systems now just to put that In perspective basically during our uh Lifetimes electricity growth the United States has been about 0% because we get More and more efficient more

Urbanization we haven't needed more Electricity demand but the increase on Just from data centers alone Plus EVs And others is going to change that Growth rate on the right hand part of The slide from 0 to 2.4% now that might not be a lot sound Like a lot we have companies growing at 20 or 30% but think of the base of this We're talking about total us electricity Demand every single way we use Electricity we're going to now see Unprecedented growth so we're Seeing Technology Drive unique demands On electricity generation in the US So what we walk away from this section Saying to ourselves is huge growth in Data centers fueled by artificial Intelligence and the dramatic size of it Is enough to increase the overall demand For electricity in the United States It's very very big deal so let's talk a Little bit about energy and how we think About energy connecting to this and this Is where I really want you to kind of Slow down and think about the different Parts of what it takes to get an Electron from being generated to being Used because people will say things like Okay we're you going to use cre solar Power in the house and therefore we'll Demand less oil from OPEC those are Apples and oranges one's electricity One's a transportation fuel so whenever

You think about energy you really have To get down to First principles and Think about each step of the way get a Complicated equation here and that's What I really want to focus you on Next 10 or 15 minutes so this slide Which is very busy really is probably The most important slide in energy Because what you have on the left is Sources of energy okay and here when we Mean energy we're not talking about Electricity we're talking about energy And so it comes from petroleum Gat gas Solar and those are all the ways it can Be produced and then it could go through Various intermediate forms and then There's an output where it's you what Sectors it's used by Transportation Industrial Etc so whenever anyone starts Talking about energy you want to know Okay what's the source and what's the Use and in what form do I want my energy When I use it do I want it a liquid like A gasoline in my car or I you want it Like an electron plugged into the wall So never lose sight of the fact that This is really your organizing home base Your first Principles Founders I know you're Building the next big thing in Tech and You probably got some groundbreaking AI Solution or a consumer app that's going To take the World by storm or maybe You're listening to this week in

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Business go to squarespace.com twist to Get 10% off your first website or domain Purchase and when you're ready to launch Again go to squarespace.com twist and Get that 10% off your first website or Domain purchase squarespace.com Twist now when we talk about data Centers we're talking about electricity So we can go from energy which could Have been oil gas to electrons okay so You have to generate those electrons Somehow and here you see the various Forms of electricity generation in the United States what's really interesting From this slide is coal is dying nuke Stays about the same and Renewables have Been the highest form of growth over Last five or six years in the US and Globally so the thing that gets added The most is Renewables and it does so at The cost of coal Now just like data centers are Geographically distributed so too is Electricity generation you have Generation all all across the United States some places are good at producing Uh wind for example the planes in Midwest some places do solar better Think you can figure that out but your Generation is Distributed each source of generation Has a different cost to it right that's Intuitive but you have to you know as we Think about we have data centers are

Going to come up across us it's going to Need power across us so it's going to be Geographically one issue will be where Can I get solar in Maine probably not But if I can I get Nat gas in Colorado Yes but there'll be different costs so You're going to think Geographic Plus Cost then you might care about the Future climate change uh and if you do You might want to lower CO2 emissions so Now you're going to over delay on your Energy uh Supply where is it located how Much does it cost and how much CO2 does It Emit then different times of day produ Certain energy sources produce different Amounts of energy solar not so good at Night wind not so good when the wind Doesn't blow so your generation you now Got to think about when am I going to Have it produce uh energy and then there Are also capacity factors as well so you Got to think about all these things Now we've generated our electricity Somehow burn coal used solar used wind Now we've got to get it from the Generation source to the use okay and so There are transmission and distribution Lines across the United States hundreds Of thousands of high voltage lines and Then millions of low voltage lines an Incredibly complicated System and what's most interesting about This is there is not one US Electric grd

The grid is regulated by entities called Rtos and isos just follow the colors but You cannot easily get electricity into And out of regions that are not yours so For example OT Texas it's its own world Electrons do not flow in and out of Texas easily so to California you may Have heard about path four or how you Get electrons North and South in the State that's been an issue so we have a Patchwork of grids not one single Grit now you can say let's fix this Let's build transmission lines Notoriously hard to do very expensive Very very hard to get through people's Backyards not my backyard and and long Even if you had the transmission Distribution lines you have to connect To it so you have to get approval from Your ISO RTO I built a solar farm I want To hook up to the grid I'm in that too Takes time and there's something called Interconnection cues that make you wait To get onto your local Grid so in summary what we see here is a Very complicated system of energy Generation plus transmission and Distribution of those Sable electrons And you have to think about all of that Together when you think about how do I Provide data for data seters so the Reason we're here today I think is to Make money I think think about ways to Follow investment opportunities and

Opportunities are usually come from Challenges i' like to spend a few Minutes on the challenges and Opportunities that we see by all this Energy demand for data sects first the Most obvious we need more power so Things that are going to produce power And electrons are an obvious win for uh The US and the world in the next decade Or two now the nature of this this need Is pretty staggering but when you look At compareed to how we plan to meet Future additions now and you see here The overall net capacity editions how Much more energy we plan to do for wind Or from solar it's it is attainable so It's going out there and saying can we Add more solar can we add more wind Absolutely and can we do it in better Ways so this is a problem that we can Solve and when you look at the impacts Of these numbers on incremental natural Gas demand again this is a very solvable Problem but it's going to take execution And better products and better services To do it second issue challenge Opportunity I talked about the Interconnection cues people are waiting In line to get onto the grid and this Slide on the left it is absolutely Exploded so this is the amount of this Is basically how long is it I'm at the Deli Jason this way we're in Delhi and New we at catas in New York I got a

Number my number is 3 million and one a Long time till I get pastrami no buo so We got to get on the grid as fast as we Can that is in some sense a regulatory Problem which People Like Us in the room Don't like because that puts time in the Hands of bureaucrats makes girly insane So we want to try and avoid that and two Ways you might think about avoiding that Are one distributed energy right if I Produce power on site of the data Setter And I don't touch the grid I don't have To get line get to queue up but the Amount of power I need at Data Center And the reliability I need make that a Non-trivial but it's it's still a pretty Smart idea you may have seen that Amazon Did a deal to buy Power kind of directly From a NE a nuke that was next door to a Data center that's a way to try and cut In line and not have to to stand in this Queue the second thing that's really Interesting is a virtual power plant and By that we mean you take a variety of Supply and demand Resources in an area and you connect Them using software so for example at a Peak energy demand I may reduce my load In one place so that another place can Use it or I may use backup generators That are sitting on site at this hotel And use it to control for other purposes So you kind of create a network and if You can do that you might be able to

Avoid going to the grid so these two Ideas you can go down those wormholes Later of Distributing energy resources And virtual power plants are way to Avoid the interconnect issue now this is An absolutely fantastic statistic done By Morgan Stanley right now people like Sunny are so hungry for electrons to run Their data centers and their AI products They will pay twice as much as Prevailing electricity rates to get it Faster they want the electrons today so Imagine if you all are attacking a Market where the incumbents are saying To you I will pay you 2X over today's Prices to get me this stuff so that's a Lot of fat to really go after with new Business models so speed really is Incredible value to these data centers Finally this is not finally but this is A little geeky and I'm sorry for the Kind of uh complexity the slide Transmission as I said is is very bulky Hard to build and because of that we Have congestion and interconnection cues And that leads to pricing differentials That are inefficient at their core that Is if the grid was as fome as we wanted It at a peak moment there wouldn't be Pricing differentials caused by the Transmission you just can't get enough Electrons through the pipe think about It that way so when you look at a at These colors and these price differences

What they say to you is there's an Inefficiency going on that can be Exploited if I could figure out how to Debottleneck the Grid or go around it so This's another way of saying the extent You think of businesses and ideas that Can get you out of the congestion of the Grid there's huge opportunities to make Money here one way to do it that's a Shortcut is you can trade electrons so For example electricity unlike stock is Not traded one place it's traded all Over the United States so there are some People that say okay if I can figure out Where the bottlenecks are I might create A software program to buy electrons and Moments I think it gets congested and It's the number one elect trated Commodity in the world electricity so It's just a long way of saying it is Worth those of you who are thinking About uh places to invest to think about The grid it has huge dollars uh involved Founders do you want to sell to bigger Customers I know you do you got to get That ACV trending up and you want to Push your churn down right sounds good But to sell to those big buyers you need To clear all of these compliance checks You know that that means you got to have Things like sock 2 sorted out what's Sock 2 it's a standard ensures that Companies keep their customer data safe And if you are in sock to compliant you

Can kiss those big deals goodbye you're Not going to land the lighthouse Customers you're not going to be able to Operate at the highest end of the market But vanta makes it really easy for you To get and renew your stock 2 compliance On average vanta customers are compliant In Just 2 to four weeks can take months Without vanta and they automate Compliance for gdpr Hippa and more so You can sell to beer customers in Whatever mark up your startup is going After vanta is going to save you Hundreds of hours of work and up to 85% On compliance costs stop slowing your Sales team down and use vanta get $1,000 Off at v.com twist that's v.com twist For $11,000 off your sock to finally on The compute itself we've presented there A host of issues around energy sighting Sourcing how do you maintain assets when Do you turn certain things on certain Things off and when you think about that Artificial intelligence will be Something that matters but the compute Demand is outpaced the efficiency the Chips so again anything that makes chips More efficient will cut down on the Overall power demand so again efficiency In chips in racks and servers and Cooling all that stuff is a tremendous Investment opportunity when we look at The biggest hypers scalers the people Who are demanding the biggest data

Centers Amazon meta m Micosoft Google They've made very public and very bold Pronouncements about where they want to Be from a CO2 emissions point of view They want to get to Net Zero by certain Dates and time so they' really put Themselves a little bit of a box because The core of their business is demanding More and more Electrons most of that electricity about 60% wants to come from that gas because That's kind of how we do it in the US Now and it's fast and cheap but that Gives you CO2 so how will these Hyperscalers be able to meet their Promises of being net zero one way that Everyone loves is direct air capture to Suck CO2 out of the air I'm not sure Anyone's been able to show they can do It at a reasonable cost and that leads Things to things like carbon credits and Other workarounds but there's going to Be a big problem for uh these companies Because they made public announcements In their regulatory filings and their SEC enforced to live up to these Promises so you're going to see a big Rush over the next decade for these guys To figure out how am I going to reduce My CO2 emissions to meet my Promises this gets To probably I think one of the weirdest Things about um energy that that I just Don't understand I am really really

Reallying old and when I uh graduated From high school in 1982 I worked on how to solve nuclear Waste in the United States since then What we've done in solving nuclear waste Disposal is zero there's been no Advancement in nukes in the US for Decades so the idea that we're going to Solve the data center problem which is Measured in months years by building More nukes is insanity to me because it The the rates of planning the amount of Time it takes to build a nuclear power Plant plant are enormous these numbers In China 5 to 7 years they may actually Be understated it may take 10 years to Build a n plant in China because just Because you see one coming online now it Wasn't started yesterday so people say Okay you're pessimistic about the way Old plants were but what about new small Modular reactors smrs or let's go to Fusion not fision I mean those are all Great ideas and I think there's some Really great companies but the timelines Are just a mismatch between adding power Over the next 900 days versus 10 years So I guess if you could solve this Problem of how long it takes to build Nukes I'm for nukes I wish we had more Of them but just duration it's a Mismatch to the data center problem all Of this leads a whole bunch of problems And a whole bunch of potential Solutions

And artificial intelligence itself will Be as I mentioned earlier one of the Ways we work ourselves at it there will Be eventually smart people that take the AI resource and apply it to the energy Problem it's already being done as I Mentioned with maintenance and how do You put generation online but it'll be a Really exciting part uh solving some of The challenges we had today so in Summary I want and I hope you all are Really enthused by this area we have a Huge growth and boom in data centers It's not going to be stop connected to a Very complicated Energy System and when You put those two together you're going To just have a host of problems Challenges and with that come Solutions And if you're the guys who on The Cutting Edge of the solutions you should Make a lot of money so I hope that's a Little bit of an intro and I guarantee You you're all set for the podcast Tonight on Energy Okay So it seems like consumers in the United States have gotten a bit of a a free Ride on all of this um except when it Comes to recent Outages Texas California I think the Public's Consciousness is starting to Get triggered not because they want to Save the planet and put solar on some

People do not because they can save Money some people do that didn't seem to Drive a lot of consumer and consumer Seem to be not the majority but Obviously significant here But redundancy and batteries and one of The great things that seems to have Happened is with smartphones and ev's Battery Technology has just absolutely Been extraordinary so how do batteries Play into all of this and and maybe you Could speak to that opportunity there Was had a company on this week in Startups two weeks ago that's just not Putting solar in houses in Texas they're Putting batteries in your house to load Them up during the low cost times and Then deploying it during the peak times Peak shape yeah they their their load Man shape within the home right and they Told me it's an 8X difference in cost Between Peak and trow in terms of costs In Texas let me say there lot there's Lots of it's a great question lots of Things go on there it' be great if I Could say it's a question wouldn't it be Great but it was actually good well no I Was thinking it was such a comprehensive It was such a comprehensive talk the one Thing the one thing on the company is Texas has a weird regulatory thing so You have to be a little careful that Company I do know it's a great company Just whether it scales Beyond Texas so

That's the first thing what uh your Friend Alon musk has done for energy is Cannot be overstated think about a home That has a power wall in it a Tesla and Solar on the roof that home now has a Mobile Battery that is of significant Size and that allows for things like Okay I'm not going to use as much Electricity at the at the highest peak Great I can store it I can move it and I Believe the projections are in about a Decade there'll be more power in Electric vehicles than there are in Nat Gas power plants at a certain moment in Time so you are right it is going to Change everything because we've never Had that size of battery at our house And I think it's only the lightning son Used to be a Bo that is allows bir Directional we can plug in but soon Every car will is that right Sunny cyber C we have out so that's Going to change everything Jason and one Of the neatest facts is when you have Your electricity bill let's say it's 100 Bucks only 25 bucks of that is from the Generation Source the rest is the wires To get it to you but electricity in Texas is a good example might cost you 3 Cents a kilowatt hour at a cool winter Day in the summer that can jump to Almost $1,000 kilowatt hour to the Utility they don't pass it through but I Can't think of a commodity in the world

That goes up 300X in a day you know 3,000 xit a day just GameStop right just GameStop right right so a battery allows You to AR GameStop but so that's a long With see there are a lot of great things There but they're all true all right Everybody I'm on the road I mean all the Time right and that means I am always Juggling phones and laptops apps all These different Services I use and when You use multiple devices and you have All these different apps running your Business you need to have one single Phone number that is perfect and that Perfect phone number is open phone it's Going to simplify all the communications You have in your organization because Open phone has rethought the modern Business phone it's so magical it works With a single elegant app that you can Put on all your devices and it works Right on your existing phone even works On your desktop our sales team uses it Here at launch why do we use it well we Don't want people people talking to Customers on their private phone lines And our account Executives don't want to Give their personal phone number out That's just weird you want to have Everything tight an open phone will make It tight and tight is right in this Regard shared phone numbers are also Awesome for things like customer support Or when we run events we like to have a

Field phone number so hey if you're a VIP and you're at the liquidity Conference just call that number open Phone is super affordable it's just $13 A month twist listeners get an extra 20% Off cuz they got you covered open Phone.com / twist and what if you got an Existing phone number no problem open Phone's going to Port them over at no Extra cost head over to open phone.com Twist to start your free trialing at 20% Off we'll take one question from the Audience anybody has a great question You know we used to hear about the Demands of blockchain and crypto and so That seems to have gone away with the Demands of AI and so I'd like maybe you Can sort of talk about what where you See that going and the demand and then When you talk about software Solutions Are you talking like Solutions like uh Power Ledger things where they're doing Peer-to-peer trading so first on on on The on the crypto I've never understood The uh focus on crypto power usage for Example let let me give you an example Let's say you wore Laura Piana Sweaters I don't know but I would guess That the energy use the knit and make a Laura Piana sweater is a 100x A J crew Sweater But we don't do it there so there are Lots of things in life I bet the best Wine has more energy use energy in it

Than the worst so I think there are lots Of things in life that improve with Energy use and for some reason we say I Want to know how much it cost to make a Bitcoin I'm okay with that but then Let's do that with everything so I don't But you are right that with the other Power usages there's been less focus on It now there's one really neat thing About Bitcoin mining and maybe data Setters too and this goes to inference Versus training which I don't really get Sunny does if you could stop using your Power a key to key times as I mentioned It's very valuable particularly in the State of Texas and the crypto miners can Do that because they're making a Straight trade so they've become very Good and you've probably read about the Swing capacity turn down when Electricity and maybe you can do the Same with data centers so that'd be Another example of a software that would Shut you down at Key moments but yet Peer-to-peer One um so in the United States Eevee Adoption has stalled out right now at About 10% and the US government has put A few billion dollars at this problem And it's been a couple of years and they Really haven't built out the charging Infrastructure why do you think that is And do you think we'll have the Infrastructure to hit about 50% by 2030

In the United States yeah today I don't Think I ever mention the word government And you know there's a$2 trillion doll Uh government program called the Inflation reduction act I've lived in Washington for 30 years of my life and The less I think about government the Happier I am I'm not against it I just Don't you know our funds are 10 years in Duration I can't count on um policy one Way or the other I think every advance In energy whether it's solar electric Vehicles or anything is Because technology has improved and a Product's been created that people want And I think that's going to continue to Happen with EVs and chargers and so I I Um I have utter confidence that no Matter who's President who's in Congress That the forces that are creating energy Transition United States whether it's Avoiding blackouts or whether it's Reducing carbon whether it's driving a Tesla because it's better than a GM Saturn whatever they are are in they're Not sto they they are inevitable so uh Yes I think all those things are going To happen and it's going to be incumbent On people like us to make it happen Through the private sector and the Government may help us but it's really Our job to do it not theirs where's the Most unlikely Innovation going to happen I've been reading that solar just keeps

Making more innovations that were Unexpected what say what solar keeps Making unexpected gains and costs you Know keep plummeting is that the place Where we you think they'll be um Maybe some unknown unknowns that allow Us to get much more energy created you Think it's Vision I mean I know some of The stuff is science fiction but if you Had to place your bet on something crazy That could happen yeah I think I let me Kind of give you re ideas of what it Could be I think storage is going to be The first one that we're going to see a Huge reduction in energy storage full Disclosure I'm talking my own book we're Big investors in form energy but there Are lots of other companies trying to do It and they were reductions in energy Storage across the board which will be Really impactful on Supply and cost of Electricity so that's one two un Vision It's Possible but even the best CEOs the best Vision companies say there's work to be Done to see if it can actually work so Yes that could surprise us but that Would be a surprise the third thing I That I'll say is um whenever I fundraise I always tell every LP I guarantee you There'll be a blackout during this fund There's always a blackout somewhere in The United States in the great as you Pointed out the thing I think I'm close

To being able to say is I think in our Children's lifetime electricity be close To being free wow because there'll be so Much solar so much wind and uh so much Storage that we'll really drive it down Like Wi-Fi right when Wi-Fi first came Out you had to pay for it when Electricity first came out you had to Pay for it now we get free Wi-Fi free Electricity don't even think about it With our cup of Coffee so I think you see that at a Whole scale in and it goes negative Sometimes in the country now so it's not The most absurd thing for me to say uh This has been amazing uh give it up for Phil doy a great ending on a super Positive Note that Gap that Phil mentioned Between how fast we can build data Centers and how fast we can build new Electricity generation capacity I I Think explains why we're seeing so many Modular nuclear reactor startups one of My favorite niches out there anyways Before we go I do want to thank the Sponsors from the event that Phil's talk Came from that was Forge Global they do A lot of secondary trading I'm sure You've heard of them venure which Provides end solutions for payroll HR Benefits and risk management and then Finally eventus advisory a quote leader In onand Finance and Accounting support

They helped put on the show we Appreciate them we appreciate you and We'll see you back on twist real soon Bye